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Virginia Tech vs. Pitt Preview: Friday Night in Blacksburg

Well, here we are. Virginia Tech is 4-0. Pitt is 4-0. Both teams are 1-0 in the ACC. And on Friday night, under the lights in a sold-out Lane Stadium, somebody is leaving with their first loss of the season.

After surviving the remnants of a hurricane in Chestnut Hill last weekend, Virginia Tech returns home for what is easily the biggest game of the James Franklin era so far.

Pitt at Virginia Tech
Friday, October 2 — 7:00 PM ET
Lane Stadium — Blacksburg, VA
TV: ESPN

Virginia Tech’s 21-14 win over Boston College wasn’t particularly pretty. The Hokies trailed 14-6 in the fourth quarter, the passing game struggled in ridiculous weather conditions, and for the first time this season Tech found itself legitimately staring at a loss. Then Jeffrey Overton happened.

Overton finished with 209 rushing yards, including a 76-yard fourth-quarter touchdown that put Virginia Tech ahead for good. The performance earned him ACC Running Back of the Week honors and pushed his season average to 102.3 rushing yards per game, second-best in the conference.

The result was important for reasons beyond getting to 4-0. Virginia Tech had blown out VMI and Old Dominion and controlled most of the Maryland game. Boston College was different. Things went wrong. Tech fell behind. The weather eliminated a big chunk of the offense. And the Hokies still found a way to win. Now the difficulty level goes up considerably.

Meet the Panthers

Pitt enters Blacksburg at 4-0 after absolutely vaporizing Bucknell 59-0. The Panthers produced a school-record 766 yards of offense, including 574 passing yards, while tying the ACC record with eight touchdown passes. That’s probably worth mentioning.

Pitt is averaging 39.3 points and 523.8 yards per game, including 347.3 through the air. Defensively, the Panthers have been even more impressive, allowing only 8.5 points and 244.5 yards per game. They’ve held every opponent to 14 points or fewer. There is, however, an enormous asterisk attached to those numbers.

Pitt has played all four games at home, and Friday night represents its first road game of the season. More importantly, quarterback Mason Heintschel’s eye-popping touchdown numbers have largely been accumulated against lesser competition; as of Monday, none of his 13 touchdown passes had come against a Power Four defense. So Friday night should tell us considerably more about both teams.

The Mason Heintschel Problem

If there’s one player Virginia Tech fans should know before Friday night, it’s Pitt quarterback Mason Heintschel. The sophomore has completed 67.7% of his passes for 1,191 yards, 13 touchdowns and just one interception. Against Bucknell, he went nuclear: 403 yards and six touchdowns without throwing an interception.

Pitt also has legitimate receiving depth. Thirteen different Panthers caught a pass against Bucknell, and five caught touchdowns.

This isn’t an offense where Virginia Tech can simply take away one receiver. The encouraging part for Tech is that Brent Pry’s defense has generally done a good job preventing traditional rushing attacks from taking over games. Pitt averages 176.5 rushing yards per game, but the matchup Virginia Tech really needs to win is obvious:

Make Pitt earn everything through the air while getting pressure on Heintschel.

The worst possible scenario is allowing Pitt to establish the run, stay ahead of the chains and let Heintschel operate comfortably off play action. Friday night needs to be the first time this season that the sophomore quarterback looks uncomfortable. Lane Stadium can help with that.

Pitt’s Defense Is Legit

This is also easily the best defense Virginia Tech has faced. Pitt is giving up only 53.3 rushing yards per game and 244.5 total yards per game. Opponents are averaging just 4.2 yards per play.

That’s where the Jeffrey Overton matchup becomes fascinating. Virginia Tech just rode Overton through a monsoon for 209 yards against Boston College. He’s averaging more than 100 yards per game and has emerged as one of the most explosive players in the ACC.

Pitt knows exactly what’s coming. Pat Narduzzi specifically praised Virginia Tech’s offensive line and Overton this week and described defending Tech’s rushing attack as a “chess match.” He also pointed out the multiple tempos Virginia Tech uses offensively and the different ways the Hokies deploy tight end Luke Reynolds. This is where Ethan Grunkemeyer becomes important.

Time for Grunkemeyer to Make Some Plays

I’m willing to throw most of the Boston College passing numbers into the Atlantic Ocean. Grunkemeyer finished with just 147 passing yards, but trying to evaluate a passing game played in rain with winds approaching 40 mph is mostly pointless.

Before that game, we’d seen what this passing attack could do. Grunkemeyer threw for 327 yards against Old Dominion and 314 against Maryland. Luke Reynolds topped 100 receiving yards in both games.

Virginia Tech probably isn’t running for 250 yards against Pitt. That means there are going to be moments Friday night when Grunkemeyer has to make a throw on third-and-7. Those are the plays that could determine the game.

If Pitt has to respect Grunkemeyer, Reynolds, Que’Sean Brown and the rest of Virginia Tech’s passing attack, Overton becomes considerably more dangerous. If the Panthers can load the box and turn Virginia Tech one-dimensional? That’s a problem.

The Lane Stadium Factor

This isn’t just another home game. It’s Friday night. It’s a sellout. It’s a Stripe Effect game. It’s two undefeated ACC teams. And Pitt hasn’t played a road game this season.

Even Narduzzi acknowledged this week that Blacksburg will be one of the loudest environments Pitt encounters all season and that the noise will require adjustments to communication and snap counts.

That’s significant because Pitt hasn’t had to deal with anything remotely resembling this environment in 2026. Virginia Tech needs to weaponize that immediately.

Get Pitt into a third-and-long on the opening possession. Force a false start. Make Heintschel burn a timeout. Make a young quarterback communicate with 65,000 people screaming at him while Enter Sandman is still rattling around his skull. That’s home-field advantage.

SP+ Says This Is Basically a Toss-Up

This is where things get interesting.

Current SP+ data has Pitt around No. 20 nationally and Virginia Tech around No. 28. On a neutral field, the model views Pitt as roughly 2.4 points better.

Move the game to Lane Stadium, however, and SP+ projects essentially a coin flip: Virginia Tech by 0.6 points, with roughly a 51% win probability.

That’s substantially different from the betting market. And I tend to think SP+ has the right idea about the closeness of this matchup. Pitt’s statistical profile is excellent. But Virginia Tech has already played two Power Four opponents away from home, while Pitt hasn’t left Pittsburgh. Friday should tell us whether those Panthers numbers are real.

Betting Analysis

The market opened with Virginia Tech around a 5.5-point favorite, although the line has moved around depending on the sportsbook. As of September 28, books were showing Tech anywhere from roughly -3.5 to -6, with totals generally in the low-to-mid 50s.

That’s a pretty significant disagreement between the market and the analytics. SP+ essentially says pick ’em with Virginia Tech receiving a small home-field edge. Another independent power-rating model made Virginia Tech only about a half-point favorite after accounting for Lane Stadium.

So if you’re laying close to a touchdown with Virginia Tech, you’re making a pretty strong statement that Lane Stadium, Pitt’s untested schedule and Tech’s offensive ceiling matter more than the underlying efficiency numbers.

I’m much more comfortable with Virginia Tech around -3 than I am around -6. The total is also interesting. Pitt’s defense hasn’t allowed more than 14 points all season, while Virginia Tech is averaging 43.3 points per game. Something has to give. I don’t think this turns into a 45-42 shootout.

Three Keys to the Game

1. Make Heintschel uncomfortable

He’s thrown 13 touchdowns and one interception because he’s largely been operating from clean situations. Virginia Tech needs to change that. Pressure him, disguise coverages and make him prove he can execute in a hostile road environment.

2. Stay patient with Overton

Pitt’s rushing-defense numbers are ridiculous. That doesn’t mean Virginia Tech should abandon the run if Overton has 24 yards after eight carries. Eventually, he’s going to get an opportunity. Boston College learned that lesson approximately 76 yards too late.

3. Win third down

This feels like a game where five or six plays will determine the outcome. Third-and-medium situations are going to be enormous. Virginia Tech can’t continually give Heintschel extra possessions, and Grunkemeyer is going to have to convert some uncomfortable third downs against the best defense he’s faced.

The Pick

This is the first game on Virginia Tech’s schedule where I can legitimately talk myself into either team winning. Pitt might be really good.

The Panthers have been dominant statistically. Their defense has been outstanding. Heintschel looks like a legitimate ACC quarterback. And Pat Narduzzi has certainly had success against Virginia Tech before — Pitt has won three of the past four meetings. But Friday night is an entirely different test. Pitt has spent the first month of the season at home.

Now a sophomore quarterback has to walk into a sold-out Lane Stadium at night against an undefeated Virginia Tech team that just discovered it can take a punch and keep fighting. I think the game stays close into the fourth quarter. Overton breaks one. Grunkemeyer makes a couple of throws when Virginia Tech absolutely has to have them. And the defense forces Heintschel into his first major mistake of the season.

Virginia Tech 27, Pitt 23

Hokies move to 5-0.

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Virginia Tech vs Boston College Preview and Prediction

Date & Time: Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 12:00 p.m. ET
Location: Alumni Stadium, Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts
Broadcast: ACC Network
Records: Virginia Tech (3-0), Boston College (2-1)
Betting Line: Virginia Tech -13.5 | O/U 48.5

A week ago Virginia Tech went to Maryland trying to prove that the first two weeks of the James Franklin era weren’t just the result of beating up on VMI and Old Dominion. They proved it.

Virginia Tech beat Maryland 35-26, snapped a 15-game losing streak against nonconference Power 4 opponents and improved to 3-0 for the first time since 2017. Ethan Grunkemeyer threw for 314 yards and three touchdowns. Luke Reynolds caught 12 passes. The Hokies controlled the football for more than 36 minutes and basically spent three quarters doing exactly what good football teams are supposed to do on the road.

Now comes a completely different challenge. Virginia Tech travels to Boston College as roughly a two-touchdown favorite for its first ACC game of the season. This isn’t about proving Virginia Tech belongs anymore. This is about proving Virginia Tech can consistently beat teams it is supposed to beat. And if you’ve watched Virginia Tech football over the last decade, you know exactly why that sentence makes me nervous.

Virginia Tech Is Actually 3-0

We can officially stop qualifying everything. Virginia Tech is good. How good? I still don’t know. But this is clearly a dramatically better football team than the one we watched a year ago.

The biggest reason is Grunkemeyer. Through three games, he has completed 78.2% of his passes for 865 yards, seven touchdowns and zero interceptions. He has now thrown for more than 300 yards in consecutive games, becoming the first Virginia Tech quarterback to do that since Ryan Willis in 2018. Against Maryland, Grunkemeyer completed 31-of-39 passes for 314 yards and three touchdowns. He also ran for an 18-yard touchdown. More importantly, he looked completely comfortable doing it.

Maryland pressured him. Grunkemeyer moved in the pocket. Maryland dropped defenders into coverage. He took the underneath stuff. Maryland gave him opportunities downfield. He took those too. He isn’t playing like a quarterback trying to win the game by himself. He’s playing like a quarterback who understands he doesn’t have to.

Boston College Isn’t Exactly a Pushover

Boston College is 2-1. The Eagles opened the season with a 34-15 loss at Cincinnati, then came home and beat Rutgers 28-21 before narrowly escaping Maine 22-16. Yes. Maine.

Boston College led that game 16-0 in the first quarter and then spent the remaining three quarters doing everything possible to make it interesting. The Eagles managed only six points after the first quarter. They went 4-of-12 on third down and 2-of-5 in the red zone. Quarterback Mason McKenzie threw two interceptions. That doesn’t exactly scream “team ready to beat Virginia Tech.” But there are some things here that should concern you.

McKenzie is a legitimate dual-threat quarterback. Through three games, he has thrown for 648 yards and three touchdowns while rushing for 225 yards. Against Rutgers, he ran 13 times for 94 yards and a touchdown. Evan Dickens gives Boston College another legitimate rushing threat. He ran for 102 yards against Maine, including a 39-yard touchdown. This offense isn’t explosive enough to scare Virginia Tech simply by lining up and throwing the football all over the field. But McKenzie creates exactly the type of problem that has given Virginia Tech trouble approximately 47,000 times over the last 20 years. A mobile quarterback. Wonderful.

Ethan Grunkemeyer vs. Boston College’s Secondary

This is the matchup where Virginia Tech should have a pretty significant advantage. The Hokies are averaging 330.7 passing yards per game. Grunkemeyer has completed 78.2% of his passes. Virginia Tech has had at least nine different players catch a pass in every game this season. And then there’s Luke Reynolds.

Reynolds has 25 catches for 265 yards and four touchdowns through three games. He followed an eight-catch, 108-yard performance against Old Dominion with 12 catches for 107 yards against Maryland. At this point he isn’t just a nice piece of the offense. He’s the centerpiece of it.

Boston College’s defense is allowing 331 yards per game overall and 172 through the air, but those numbers need some context. The Eagles haven’t faced a passing offense like Virginia Tech’s. Rutgers threw for 230 yards against BC, including a 60-yard touchdown. Maine threw for 201. Virginia Tech shouldn’t need to reinvent anything here.

Get Grunkemeyer comfortable early. Get Reynolds involved. Force Boston College to defend the entire width of the field. Make the Eagles decide whether they want to devote extra attention to Reynolds and create opportunities for Ayden Greene, Que’Sean Brown and everyone else. So far, nobody has really figured out how to make Grunkemeyer uncomfortable. I’m not convinced Boston College will be the first.

Please Tackle Mason McKenzie

This is probably the biggest key to the game. McKenzie is Boston College’s leading rusher with 225 yards through three games. Read that again. The quarterback is their leading rusher.

Against Rutgers, he ran for 94 yards. Against Cincinnati, he ran for 78. Against Maine, he added another 53. Some of that is designed. Some of it is scrambling. Either way, Virginia Tech has to account for him. The good news is Virginia Tech’s defensive front has generally been excellent against traditional rushing attacks.

Maryland managed only 26 rushing yards from leading rusher Harry Dalton III last week. The Terrapins basically abandoned the running game and let Malik Washington throw 43 times. The bad news is mobile quarterbacks change the math. Mylachi Williams, Cortez Harris and the rest of Virginia Tech’s front can’t get so aggressive rushing the passer that they create huge running lanes. Make McKenzie beat you from the pocket. He has thrown five interceptions in three games.

Virginia Tech’s Secondary Needs to Be Better

Here is the one thing coming out of Maryland that I don’t love. Virginia Tech gave up 359 passing yards and three touchdowns to Malik Washington. Some of that was game situation. Maryland was trailing most of the night and threw the football 43 times. Some of it was also Virginia Tech getting beat.

There were coverage breakdowns. Maryland created explosive plays. Virginia Tech didn’t consistently generate pressure with four rushers, and Washington took advantage. Boston College doesn’t have Maryland’s passing attack. McKenzie has completed just 60% of his passes and has thrown five interceptions against three touchdowns.

This should be an opportunity for the secondary to respond. Virginia Tech doesn’t need to play ultra-aggressively here. Keep McKenzie in front of you. Don’t lose contain. Make Boston College execute 10 or 12 plays to score. Eventually, I think the Eagles will make a mistake.

Virginia Tech Has to Keep Running the Football

Remember when we were worried about Virginia Tech’s running game after Old Dominion? Maryland was better. Marcellous Hawkins ran for 75 yards, and Jeffrey Overton continued to show why he’s going to have a role in this offense. Virginia Tech finished with 162.7 rushing yards per game through three weeks, which isn’t spectacular, but it’s enough when Grunkemeyer is completing nearly 80% of his passes. That’s really all Virginia Tech needs.

The Hokies don’t have to become 1999 Virginia Tech and run the football 50 times. They just need enough balance that defenses can’t completely sell out against the pass. Boston College is allowing 159 rushing yards per game. Run the ball. Make BC’s linebackers step forward. Then throw it to Luke Reynolds behind them approximately 19 times.

Key Statistical Matchups

Virginia Tech passing offense vs. Boston College pass defense

Virginia Tech is averaging 330.7 passing yards per game. Boston College is allowing 172. Something has to give. I think those BC numbers are at least partially opponent-driven. Cincinnati, Rutgers and Maine aren’t exactly lighting up the national passing statistics. Grunkemeyer is easily the best quarterback Boston College has faced.

Mason McKenzie’s legs vs. Virginia Tech’s front seven

This is the one. Virginia Tech cannot allow McKenzie to turn third-and-8 into first downs with his legs. Force him to throw from the pocket and eventually there should be turnover opportunities. Five interceptions in three games is a lot.

Turnovers

Grunkemeyer: zero interceptions.
McKenzie: five interceptions.

Virginia Tech hasn’t been perfect protecting the football overall, but the quarterback hasn’t put the ball in danger very often. Against a nearly two-touchdown underdog, don’t give them free possessions. This game becomes significantly more annoying if Virginia Tech turns the ball over twice.

Third down

Virginia Tech is converting more than half of its third downs this season. Boston College is converting around one-third. That matters. Virginia Tech went 12-of-18 on conversion downs against Maryland and possessed the ball for more than 36 minutes. Do that again and Boston College is going to have a very difficult time generating enough possessions to win.

The Bill O’Brien Factor

Apparently James Franklin is going to have a personal connection with every coach Virginia Tech plays this season. Franklin and Bill O’Brien were both assistants under Ralph Friedgen at Maryland in 2003 and 2004. O’Brien coached running backs. Franklin coached wide receivers. Then O’Brien became Penn State’s head coach in 2012. Franklin replaced him in 2014.

O’Brien is also legitimately a good offensive coach. He’s calling the plays for Boston College this season, and Franklin specifically praised his ability to manufacture yards through formations, leverage and numbers. That matters with a quarterback like McKenzie.

Boston College probably isn’t going to line up and physically overwhelm Virginia Tech. O’Brien is going to have to manufacture advantages. Misdirection. Quarterback runs. Screens. Play action. Anything that can make Virginia Tech hesitate for half a second.

SP+ / FPI

This is where things start looking pretty favorable for Virginia Tech. The current numbers have Virginia Tech around +12.7 in SP+ compared with Boston College at approximately -3.3.

FPI tells a similar story, with Virginia Tech around +10.3 and Boston College around -3.9. That’s a pretty substantial gap.

It also lines up almost perfectly with the betting market, which currently has Virginia Tech favored by around 13.5 points. For the first time this season, the computers, Vegas and my eyeballs all seem to be saying basically the same thing. Virginia Tech is considerably better than Boston College.

What I’m Looking For

This week is less complicated than Maryland.

Can Virginia Tech handle success?

Can the Hokies go on the road for a noon game against an inferior opponent and immediately take control?

Can the defense keep Mason McKenzie inside the pocket?

Can Virginia Tech’s secondary clean up some of the problems we saw against Maryland?

Can Grunkemeyer continue playing turnover-free football?

Can the running game continue improving?

And maybe most importantly: can Virginia Tech avoid turning this into one of those inexplicably stupid Boston College games?

Because we have seen enough of those. Virginia Tech has won the last three meetings with Boston College by scores of 42-21, 48-22 and 27-10. Keep doing that.

Betting Analysis

Virginia Tech opened around a 14-point favorite, with the line sitting around Virginia Tech -13.5 as of Tuesday morning. The total is around 48.5. That’s a big number for a road conference game. It’s also difficult for me to argue that it’s wrong.

Virginia Tech is averaging 50.7 points and 493.3 yards per game. Boston College just scored 22 points against Maine and needed a safety and two field goals to get there. The question isn’t really whether Virginia Tech is better. It’s whether the Hokies are two touchdowns better on the road. I think they probably are.

Boston College’s best path to covering is shortening the game with McKenzie and Dickens, forcing a turnover or two and turning this into an ugly noon ACC rock fight.

Virginia Tech’s path is much simpler. Don’t turn the ball over. Make McKenzie throw. Let Grunkemeyer distribute the football. If that happens, the talent difference should eventually show up.

Lean: Virginia Tech -13.5

I’d be a little more comfortable at -12.5 or -13 because winning by exactly 14 feels extremely plausible, but I think Virginia Tech is the right side.

Prediction

This game scares me considerably less than Maryland.

Boston College will have some early success with McKenzie’s legs. O’Brien will scheme up something annoying. Virginia Tech will probably commit a penalty at the worst possible time because apparently that’s just part of the experience now. But over four quarters, I don’t think Boston College has enough.

Grunkemeyer is playing too efficiently. Reynolds is becoming one of the best tight ends in college football. Virginia Tech has more weapons. The defensive front should eventually force McKenzie into obvious passing situations, and that’s where I think the turnovers show up. Boston College hangs around for a half. Virginia Tech pulls away after halftime.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 34, Boston College 17

The Hokies move to 4-0 for the first time since 2017.

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Virginia Tech vs Maryland Preview and Prediction

Date & Time: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 7:30 p.m. ET
Location: SECU Stadium, College Park, Maryland
Broadcast: FS1
Records: Virginia Tech (2-0), Maryland (2-0)

Well, here we go. Virginia Tech spent the first two weeks of the James Franklin era beating the absolute hell out of teams it was supposed to beat. The Hokies beat VMI 73-3 and followed it up with a 44-21 win over Old Dominion that wasn’t really as close as the final score suggests.

Now we get to find out if Virginia Tech is actually good. The Hokies travel to College Park Saturday night for their first road game of the season against a Maryland team that is also 2-0. This is exactly the game I circled before the season as the first real measuring stick for Virginia Tech. VMI told us basically nothing. ODU told us considerably more. Maryland should tell us whether Virginia Tech is ready to start beating competent Power 4 football teams again.

And because college football apparently requires every game to have some sort of weird personal storyline, James Franklin is going back to Maryland. Franklin coached at Maryland under Ralph Friedgen, was once designated the program’s head-coach-in-waiting and then spent 12 years at Penn State routinely beating the Terps. Franklin went 9-2 against Maryland at Penn State, and his relationship with Mike Locksley hasn’t always exactly been warm and fuzzy.

So, yeah. This should be fun.

Virginia Tech Is 2-0, But Now It Matters

I don’t think you could have realistically asked for a much better start to the Franklin era.

Virginia Tech has scored 117 points in two games. Ethan Grunkemeyer looks like a legitimate Power 4 quarterback. The defensive line is creating pressure. Luke Reynolds looks like a potential star. Most importantly, Virginia Tech has looked like the better football team against teams it was supposed to be better than.

That sounds incredibly basic. It has also not always been incredibly basic around here. Against ODU, Grunkemeyer completed 31-of-42 passes for 327 yards and two touchdowns. Reynolds caught eight passes for 108 yards and two scores. Virginia Tech built a 34-6 halftime lead and essentially ended the game before everyone had finished their second stadium beer.

There were still problems. Virginia Tech ran for only 89 yards. There were penalties. The Hokies weren’t particularly efficient in the red zone. And after building that huge halftime lead, they got sloppy. You can get away with that against Old Dominion. You probably can’t get away with it Saturday night.

Maryland Is Pretty Good

Maryland has also done exactly what it was supposed to do. The Terps opened the season by destroying Hampton 62-0 and then went on the road and beat UConn 38-14. Maryland has now won 20 consecutive non-conference games, which is legitimately impressive regardless of who they’ve played.

The biggest concern for Virginia Tech is sophomore quarterback Malik Washington. Washington was outstanding against UConn, completing 34-of-41 passes for 347 yards and two touchdowns. At one point he completed 18 consecutive passes, and both Na’eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding and Chris Durr Jr. went over 100 receiving yards.

That’s a real passing attack. Virginia Tech hasn’t seen anything remotely like it yet. VMI couldn’t throw the football. ODU had some success, but Virginia Tech was able to dictate the game with its defensive front. Maryland is going to spread Virginia Tech out and make the secondary defend the entire field. This is where we start learning how good this defense actually is.

Ethan Grunkemeyer vs. Malik Washington

This might be the game. Two sophomore quarterbacks. Two former highly regarded recruits. Two guys who have looked really good through the first two weeks. Grunkemeyer has been almost exactly what Virginia Tech needed. He isn’t playing hero ball. He’s distributing the football, getting through his reads and taking what defenses give him. Against ODU he completed passes to 11 different receivers.

The biggest revelation has probably been Reynolds. Virginia Tech suddenly has a tight end who can become the centerpiece of the passing game. Reynolds is a matchup problem in the middle of the field, and Maryland is going to have to decide how much attention it wants to devote to him versus Ayden Greene and Virginia Tech’s receivers.

Washington presents a completely different problem for Virginia Tech. UConn tried to pressure him and play aggressively in coverage. Washington responded by getting the ball out quickly and letting his receivers create yards after the catch. Maryland generated 475 total yards against UConn, including 350 through the air.

Virginia Tech can’t give him easy completions all night. Make him hold the football. That’s where Mylachi Williams, Cortez Harris, Aycen Stevens and the rest of this defensive front become extremely important.

Virginia Tech Has to Run the Football

This is probably my biggest concern. Virginia Tech ran the ball extremely well against VMI. Then it basically disappeared against ODU.

The Hokies finished with only 89 rushing yards Saturday. Some of that was because ODU clearly committed resources to stopping the run and Virginia Tech correctly responded by throwing the football. Starting center Kyle Altuner was also unavailable.

That’s fine for one week. It can’t become a trend. Maryland’s defensive front just held UConn to 2.2 yards per carry and recorded five sacks. If Virginia Tech becomes completely one-dimensional Saturday, this gets considerably harder.

I’m not saying Marcellous Hawkins and Jeffrey Overton need to combine for 200 yards. They don’t. But Virginia Tech needs enough of a running game that Maryland has to respect play action and can’t spend the entire night trying to make Grunkemeyer beat pressure on third-and-8. Give me 140-150 rushing yards and I’ll feel pretty good about Virginia Tech’s chances.

Virginia Tech’s Pass Rush vs. Maryland’s Offensive Line

This is the matchup I’m most interested in watching. Virginia Tech’s defensive line looks considerably faster than it did a year ago. The Hokies recorded five sacks against ODU, and Williams, Harris and Stevens were consistently disruptive.

Maryland allowed only one sack against UConn. Something has to give. Washington completed more than 80% of his passes against UConn because he was comfortable. Virginia Tech cannot allow him to sit back there and play seven-on-seven.

Pressure him without blitzing. If Virginia Tech can consistently get pressure with four, Brent Pry can keep extra defenders in coverage and make Washington work through tighter windows. That’s probably the defensive formula.

Key Statistical Matchups

Maryland passing offense vs. Virginia Tech secondary

This is easily the biggest test Virginia Tech’s secondary has faced. Washington just threw for 347 yards while completing 83% of his passes against UConn. Gladding had 130 receiving yards, and Maryland had two receivers eclipse 100 yards.

Virginia Tech doesn’t necessarily need to shut that down. It needs to prevent the easy stuff from becoming explosive plays. Tackle. Make Maryland put together 10-play drives. Eventually the pass rush should create an opportunity for a sack, holding penalty or turnover.

Virginia Tech rushing offense vs. Maryland run defense

Virginia Tech: 89 rushing yards against ODU. Maryland: 2.2 yards per carry allowed against UConn. Not ideal! The Hokies don’t need to dominate this matchup, but they cannot lose it badly.

Third down

This feels like one of those games where third down will tell the story. If Virginia Tech consistently gets Maryland into third-and-7, the defensive line has a chance to take over. If Maryland is living in third-and-2 because Washington is completing six-yard passes on first down, it’s going to be a long night.

Same thing offensively. Keep Grunkemeyer out of obvious passing situations. Very complicated analysis here.

The James Franklin Factor

Normally I wouldn’t spend much time talking about coaching history in a game preview. This one is different.

Franklin has an extensive history with Maryland. He coached there twice, was supposed to eventually replace Ralph Friedgen and then spent more than a decade at Penn State turning Maryland into one of his favorite punching bags.

He went 9-2 against Maryland as Penn State’s head coach.

There was also the 2024 game when Penn State scored a late touchdown in a 44-7 win and Locksley publicly criticized Franklin afterward. Franklin basically responded that his job was to score points. So I don’t think these guys are exchanging Christmas cards.

I also don’t think Franklin is going to let Virginia Tech walk into this game unprepared. This is the advantage of hiring someone who has coached big road games before. Virginia Tech is going into a night game against a Power 4 opponent with a coaching staff that understands exactly what that environment looks like.

SP+ / FPI

This is much closer to a true toss-up than either of Virginia Tech’s first two games. That shouldn’t be surprising. Before the season, I had Maryland listed as one of Virginia Tech’s toss-up games and specifically called it the first game where we’d actually learn something about this team. That hasn’t changed.

Virginia Tech entered the season around the mid-30s nationally in both SP+ and FPI. The early results should improve the Hokies’ profile, but Maryland has also exceeded expectations through two weeks.

The computers aren’t going to see an enormous difference between these teams. And neither do I. This feels like a one-score game.

What I’m Looking For

This is the first time this season where I’m not just looking at how Virginia Tech wins. I just want them to win.

Can Grunkemeyer play the same way on the road that he’s played in Lane Stadium?

Can Virginia Tech run the football against a legitimate Power 4 defensive front?

Can the defensive line make Malik Washington uncomfortable?

Can the secondary tackle Maryland’s receivers in space?

Can Virginia Tech finally stop committing unnecessary penalties?

And can James Franklin win his first road game as Virginia Tech’s head coach?

Virginia Tech doesn’t have to win this game to have a successful season. But this is exactly the kind of game Virginia Tech eventually needs to start winning again.

Maryland isn’t Ohio State.

They’re not Georgia.

They’re not Clemson.

They’re a solid Power 4 football program playing at home. If Virginia Tech wants to become nationally relevant again, you have to beat teams like Maryland.

Prediction

I don’t think this is easy. Maryland is better than either team Virginia Tech has played. Washington is going to make plays. The Terps will probably hit a couple of explosive passes, and I don’t expect Virginia Tech to build another 28-point halftime lead.

But I trust Virginia Tech’s defensive front. I also trust Grunkemeyer considerably more than I expected to at this point in the season. That’s ultimately the difference for me.

Virginia Tech gets enough pressure on Washington to force a turnover or two. Grunkemeyer continues to efficiently distribute the football. Reynolds makes another handful of big catches, and Virginia Tech finally gets a little more production from the running game.

It’ll be uncomfortable. It’ll probably be stupid at some point. It’s Virginia Tech football. But Franklin goes back to College Park and gets the win.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 31, Maryland 27

Virginia Tech moves to 3-0. And then things start getting interesting.

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Old Dominion vs Virginia Tech Preview and Prediction

Date & Time: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:00 p.m. ET
Location: Lane Stadium, Blacksburg, Virginia
Broadcast: The CW
Records: Virginia Tech (1-0), Old Dominion (1-0)

Virginia Tech did exactly what it was supposed to do against VMI. Actually, it did considerably more than that. The Hokies beat VMI 73-3, rolled up 619 yards of offense, held the Keydets to 83 yards and basically turned James Franklin’s first game at Virginia Tech into a three-hour infomercial for the new era.

That was fun. Now we get a real football game. Old Dominion comes to Blacksburg on Saturday, and I don’t think anybody associated with Virginia Tech needs a reminder about what happened the last time these teams played. ODU beat Virginia Tech 45-26 in Lane Stadium last season. Brent Pry was fired the next day. The Monarchs are now 3-4 all-time against Virginia Tech and 2-2 in the last four meetings. James Franklin was hired, in part, to make games like this considerably less interesting.

Old Dominion is Actually Pretty Good

Let’s get this out of the way first: ODU isn’t VMI. The Monarchs went 10-3 last season, beat Virginia Tech, won the Cure Bowl and finished the year allowing just 18.5 points per game. Two of their three losses came against College Football Playoff teams Indiana and James Madison. Ricky Rahne has built a legitimately good Sun Belt program.

There’s also an interesting connection here. Rahne worked for Franklin at Kansas State, Vanderbilt and Penn State, eventually becoming Franklin’s offensive coordinator at Penn State. These guys know each other extremely well.

ODU also comes into this game 1-0 after beating Norfolk State 31-10. It wasn’t necessarily dominant. Norfolk State actually drove 93 yards on its opening possession before fumbling at the ODU 2-yard line. The Spartans finished with 220 yards, and ODU only had 319. But the Monarchs forced three turnovers, went 5-for-5 in the red zone and pulled away in the second half. That’s kind of what good teams do against inferior opponents.

Quinn Henicle Changes the ODU Offense

ODU had to replace Colton Joseph at quarterback after he threw for 2,624 yards and 21 touchdowns last season. Quinn Henicle won the job, and he gives this offense a different dimension. Against Norfolk State, Henicle completed 9-of-12 passes for 137 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. More importantly, he ran 13 times for 68 yards and two touchdowns.

Virginia Tech needs to account for him in the running game. That’s probably the biggest defensive key for the Hokies this week. ODU ran for 186 yards against Norfolk State with Henicle, Devin Roche, Ja’Varien Salter and Trey Hall all contributing.

Roche is the guy Virginia Tech should know best. He ran for 630 yards last season at 5.7 yards per carry and enters 2026 as a preseason First-Team All-Sun Belt selection. ODU is going to try to run the football. Virginia Tech needs to make them throw it.

Henicle only attempted 13 passes against Norfolk State. Get ODU behind the chains, eliminate the quarterback run game and make a relatively inexperienced quarterback beat you throwing the ball in Lane Stadium. That’s the formula.

Virginia Tech’s Offense Gets a Real Test

There really isn’t much to criticize about scoring 73 points. Ethan Grunkemeyer looked comfortable. Virginia Tech ran the ball extremely well. The receivers made plays. The offensive line controlled the line of scrimmage. Tech finished with 619 yards and averaged 8.6 yards per play. That’ll work.

The problem is that VMI was completely overmatched. ODU won’t be. This is the first game where we should start learning something about Virginia Tech’s offense. Grunkemeyer threw for 281 yards and looked exactly like what Virginia Tech needs him to be. He didn’t have to play hero ball. He distributed the football, took what the defense gave him and let Virginia Tech’s skill players do the rest. I want more of that.

Marcellous Hawkins and Jeffrey Overton Jr. also give Virginia Tech a backfield that should be good enough to consistently run the football. ODU’s defense is going to provide a considerably better test up front.

The Monarchs returned very little from last year’s offense, but there’s more continuity defensively, including preseason All-Sun Belt defensive lineman Chris Forbes and defensive back Mario Easterly.

Virginia Tech shouldn’t abandon what worked against VMI. Run the football. Get Grunkemeyer comfortable. Use play action. Get Ayden Greene and Que’Sean Brown involved downfield. The Hokies have more talent. Make ODU have to deal with it.

The Penalties Need to Stop

Here’s the one thing from the VMI game that absolutely cannot continue. Virginia Tech had 11 penalties for 93 yards. That’s not good. You can commit 11 penalties against VMI and win by 70. You cannot commit 11 penalties against Maryland, Pitt, Georgia Tech, Clemson, SMU or Miami and expect things to go particularly well.

Virginia Tech has spent years losing games because of stupid penalties, missed assignments, turnovers and general self-inflicted errors. The entire point of hiring an experienced coach like Franklin was to stop doing that. ODU is good enough to punish Virginia Tech for mistakes. Don’t give them the opportunity.

SP+ / FPI

The computers like Virginia Tech pretty comfortably here. Virginia Tech entered the season No. 36 nationally in SP+ with a +8.6 rating. ESPN’s FPI had the Hokies even higher at No. 33 with a +7.4 rating.

Old Dominion enters the matchup with an SP+ rating around -6.9 and sits No. 85 nationally in ESPN FPI at -4.4. That’s a pretty significant gap. FPI gave Virginia Tech roughly an 85% chance to win this game in the preseason, and the betting market has moved even more aggressively toward the Hokies.

Virginia Tech is currently around an 18-point favorite. That feels about right. This shouldn’t be a toss-up. It shouldn’t be a game where Virginia Tech needs a fourth-quarter drive to survive. But it also isn’t VMI. ODU is capable of making Virginia Tech uncomfortable if the Hokies mess around.

Key Statistical Matchups

ODU rushing offense vs. Virginia Tech run defense

This is the matchup. ODU ran for 186 yards against Norfolk State and has a quarterback who is legitimately part of the running game. Henicle had 68 yards and two touchdowns himself.

Virginia Tech needs to play disciplined football on the edge and tackle considerably better than Hokie defenses have in some of the previous ODU games.

If Tech holds ODU below 150 rushing yards, I have a difficult time seeing the Monarchs scoring enough points to win.

Virginia Tech offensive line vs. ODU defensive front

VMI told us basically nothing about Virginia Tech’s offensive line. ODU will tell us more.

Virginia Tech ran for 268 yards in Week 1. I don’t expect them to put up another 268 against the Monarchs, but the Hokies should still be able to consistently create running lanes.

This is a Power 4 offensive line against a Sun Belt defensive front.

Explosive plays

This is probably ODU’s best path to making the game weird. Henicle averaged more than 15 yards per completion against Norfolk State, including a 38-yard third-and-19 completion.

Virginia Tech cannot let ODU hang around because of busted coverages and quarterback scrambles. Make them drive the field.

Turnovers

ODU forced three turnovers against Norfolk State. Two of them immediately turned into touchdowns. That’s how underdogs win football games.

Virginia Tech had a muffed punt against VMI that basically handed the Keydets their only points. Don’t do that Saturday. ODU doesn’t need any help.

Third down

ODU converted 55.6% of its third downs against Norfolk State. That number needs to come way down.

The worst version of this game is Henicle repeatedly escaping the pocket on third-and-6, moving the chains and keeping Grunkemeyer standing on the sideline. Get off the field.

The Numbers

Virginia Tech

  • Record: 1-0
  • Points per game: 73
  • Total offense: 619 yards per game
  • Rushing: 268 yards per game
  • Passing: 351 yards per game
  • Yards per play: 8.6
  • SP+: No. 26
  • FPI: No. 33

Old Dominion

  • Record: 1-0
  • Points per game: 31
  • Total offense: 319 yards per game
  • Rushing: 186 yards vs. Norfolk State
  • Passing: 137 yards vs. Norfolk State
  • Yards per play: 5.8
  • SP+: No. 90
  • FPI: No. 85

Betting Line

  • Virginia Tech -18 to -18.5
  • Total: approximately 50.5-51.5
  • Moneyline: Virginia Tech roughly -1050 to -1200

What I’m Looking For

Last week I wanted Virginia Tech to look organized and put an inferior opponent away. They did that. Now I want to see them do it against an actual FBS team.

Can Virginia Tech run the football when the other team has legitimate FBS players on the defensive line?

Can Grunkemeyer look as comfortable when he’s under pressure?

Can the defense contain a mobile quarterback?

Can Virginia Tech clean up the penalties?

And most importantly, can Virginia Tech play a team it is clearly better than without turning the afternoon into complete mess?

That last one has been a problem. Virginia Tech has lost three times to Old Dominion since 2018. Once is a fluke. Three times is a problem.

Franklin talked this week about ODU having Virginia Tech’s full attention. Good. They’ve earned it. There should be absolutely no overlooking this team. But there also shouldn’t be any fear of them.

Virginia Tech has the better roster, the better quarterback situation, home-field advantage and a coaching staff that understands exactly what this game means. Go prove it.

Prediction

I think ODU hangs around for a little while.

The Monarchs are well coached, Henicle’s legs will cause Virginia Tech some problems and this is a significantly better football team than the one Tech played last Saturday.

But eventually the talent difference takes over.

Virginia Tech should be able to run the football. Grunkemeyer will hit a couple of explosive plays in the passing game. The defense will force Henicle into obvious passing situations, and ODU won’t be able to consistently sustain drives.

I also don’t think there’s any chance Virginia Tech overlooks this game after what happened last season. This is exactly the kind of game James Franklin was hired to make boring again.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 38, Old Dominion 17

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VMI vs Virginia Tech Preview and Prediction

Date & Time: Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 7:30 p.m. ET
Location: Lane Stadium, Blacksburg, Virginia
Broadcast: ACC Network
Records: Virginia Tech (0-0), VMI (0-1)

The James Franklin era officially begins Saturday night in Blacksburg. Lane Stadium is sold out. It’s a night game. Enter Sandman. A new coaching staff. Basically an entire new roster. There probably isn’t another game against an FCS opponent that Virginia Tech fans could possibly be this excited about.

Virginia Tech should beat VMI comfortably. This game isn’t really about whether Virginia Tech wins. It’s about what the Hokies look like doing it.

VMI already has one game under its belt after losing 38-10 at Idaho State last Saturday. The Keydets actually ran for 229 yards but essentially didn’t have a passing game, finishing with only 11 passing yards. That makes the assignment for Virginia Tech pretty straightforward: stop the run.

VMI is breaking in a new head coach too. Ashley Ingram came over from Carson-Newman and has installed an option-based offense after spending 14 years on the staff at Navy. That makes this slightly more annoying than your typical FCS opener. Option football can create problems if guys don’t stay disciplined.

This should be a good first test for the new Virginia Tech defense. I want to see the defensive line control the line of scrimmage and the linebackers play disciplined football. Don’t chase the wrong guy. Don’t miss tackles. Don’t give VMI eight-minute drives that shorten the game. Make them throw the football. If Virginia Tech does that, VMI is going to have a very difficult time scoring.

The more interesting side of the ball is Virginia Tech’s offense. Ethan Grunkemeyer has officially won the quarterback job. Grunkemeyer doesn’t need to throw for 400 yards Saturday. He needs to look comfortable, protect the football and get the offense moving.

This is essentially a live scrimmage before the schedule starts getting more interesting. Virginia Tech should lean on Marcellous Hawkins and Jeffrey Overton Jr. early. The offensive line has been one of my biggest questions about this team all offseason. Against VMI, there really shouldn’t be any excuses. Tech should be bigger, stronger and more talented up front. Line up and run the ball. If Virginia Tech can’t consistently move VMI off the line of scrimmage, I’m going to be concerned.

The receivers are probably the position group I’m most excited to see. Ayden Greene and Duke transfer Que’Sean Brown give Grunkemeyer two legitimate weapons, while Marlion Jackson appears to have put himself in position to play a significant role. There’s enough talent in this group for Virginia Tech to have a pretty good passing offense if Grunkemeyer is the guy Franklin thinks he can be. But again, this is VMI.

I’m not going to learn much if Virginia Tech wins 45-7. They’re supposed to win 45-7. What I’m looking for is whether Virginia Tech looks organized. Do they get plays in on time? Are there stupid penalties? Does the offensive line control the game? Does Grunkemeyer look comfortable? Does the defense tackle? Does Virginia Tech put an inferior opponent away instead of screwing around for three quarters? Those things matter.

Virginia Tech has spent the better part of the last decade turning games against teams like VMI into unnecessarily stressful experiences. James Franklin was hired to end that. Saturday night is the first opportunity.

Players to Watch

QB Ethan Grunkemeyer

This is the obvious one. We finally get to see what the new quarterback looks like when the jersey colors are different on the other side of the field. I don’t care about huge numbers. I want to see accuracy, good decisions and command of the offense.

RB Marcellous Hawkins

Virginia Tech should be able to run the football in this game. Hawkins has a chance to establish himself immediately as the lead back.

WR Ayden Greene

Greene needs to become Virginia Tech’s No. 1 receiver this season. I’d like to see him make a couple plays downfield and then spend most of the second half standing on the sideline.

Virginia Tech Linebackers

Option football puts a lot of stress on linebackers. Stay disciplined, tackle the guy with the football and don’t turn this into something more complicated than it needs to be.

What I Want to See

Virginia Tech needs to dominate the line of scrimmage. That’s No. 1. I also want the starters out of this game relatively early. Get Grunkemeyer comfortable. Establish the running game. Let the defense get some reps against the option. Get up four touchdowns and start playing the young guys.

There is absolutely no reason for Grunkemeyer or any other important starter to be playing meaningful snaps in the fourth quarter. VMI went 1-11 last season and just lost by 28 points to Idaho State. Virginia Tech has a massive talent advantage at essentially every position.

Prediction

There’s going to be a ridiculous amount of energy in Lane Stadium Saturday night considering Virginia Tech is playing VMI. That’s what happens when you hire James Franklin.

I expect Virginia Tech to come out a little sloppy because basically everything is new. There will probably be a penalty that drives everyone insane. VMI will probably put together one long option drive where everyone on Twitter starts complaining about the linebackers. Then the talent difference takes over.

Grunkemeyer throws a couple touchdowns. Virginia Tech runs for well over 200 yards. The defense settles in after seeing the option for a few possessions and VMI struggles to consistently move the football. Most importantly, the game is boring by the fourth quarter. That would be a nice change.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 45, VMI 10

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The Betting Line

Virginia Tech is currently a 50.5-point favorite over VMI with the total sitting around 58.5. Yes, you read that correctly.

Fifty. And. A. Half.

Virginia Tech has spent the last several years making me terrified of laying basically any number of points with them, so asking the Hokies to win a football game by more than seven touchdowns feels objectively insane. But this is also probably the biggest talent mismatch Virginia Tech will have all season.

VMI went 1-11 last year and opened this season with a 38-10 loss to Idaho State. The Keydets were outgained 454-240 and averaged just 3.9 yards per play.

The interesting number here might actually be the total. If Virginia Tech covers 50.5, they’re probably doing most of the work required to get the game over 58.5 themselves. The question becomes whether VMI can contribute enough points before Franklin empties the bench.

Spread: Virginia Tech -50.5
Total: 58.5

I have absolutely no interest in betting Virginia Tech -50.5. But if they want to cover it, I will not complain.

SP+ / FPI

The computers are considerably more bullish on Virginia Tech than they were a year ago.

Virginia Tech enters the season No. 36 nationally in SP+, with an overall rating of +8.6. The Hokies rank 38th offensively and 38th defensively.

ESPN’s FPI likes Tech even more, ranking the Hokies No. 33 nationally with a +7.4 rating.

Those aren’t College Football Playoff numbers, but they’re pretty encouraging considering Virginia Tech finished 3-9 last season.

SP+ includes lower-division teams in Bill Connelly’s complete ratings database, and VMI currently checks in at No. 376.

The actual SP+ projection for Saturday is hilarious:

Virginia Tech 68, VMI 0.

SP+ gives Virginia Tech essentially a 100% win probability and projects the Hokies to outperform the Vegas spread by roughly 17 points.

So apparently the computers aren’t particularly concerned about James Franklin’s debut. I’m not either.

Key Statistical Matchups

VMI rushing offense vs. Virginia Tech run defense

This is the only matchup that genuinely interests me from VMI’s perspective.

The Keydets ran for 229 yards on 52 carries against Idaho State, averaging 4.4 yards per carry. They held the ball for nearly 35 minutes. That is the offense. Virginia Tech knows exactly what is coming. VMI wants to run the option, shorten the game and keep Virginia Tech’s offense standing on the sideline.

If the Hokies are getting pushed around and allowing VMI to consistently pick up four or five yards on first down, that’s something worth paying attention to.

VMI passing offense vs. literally anybody

VMI threw for 11 yards against Idaho State. They completed five passes for an average of 2.2 yards per completion. I don’t even know how you do that. If Virginia Tech can put VMI behind the chains and force the Keydets into obvious passing situations, drives should end very quickly.

Virginia Tech offense vs. VMI defense

Idaho State averaged 7.1 yards per play against VMI and threw for 366 yards and four touchdowns.

That’s the matchup where I want to see Ethan Grunkemeyer immediately look comfortable. Virginia Tech doesn’t need to get cute. Run the football, use play action, let Grunkemeyer push the ball downfield to Ayden Greene and Que’Sean Brown and make VMI defend the entire field. The talent advantage should be enormous.

Third down

VMI went just 3-for-16 on third down against Idaho State. That’s 18.8%. This is another area where Virginia Tech should dominate. Get VMI into third-and-long, force them out of the option game and get the defense off the field.

The worst possible version of Saturday is VMI repeatedly converting third-and-3, bleeding six minutes off the clock and turning the game into the world’s most boring 38-7 win. Don’t let them do that.

The Numbers

Virginia Tech

  • SP+: No. 36 (+8.6)
  • FPI: No. 33 (+7.4)
  • SP+ Offense: No. 38
  • SP+ Defense: No. 38
  • Betting Line: VT -50.5
  • Total: 58.5

VMI vs. Idaho State

  • Points: 10
  • Total offense: 240 yards
  • Rushing: 229 yards
  • Passing: 11 yards
  • Yards per play: 3.9
  • Third downs: 3-of-16
  • Time of possession: 34:59

SP+ Prediction: Virginia Tech 68, VMI 0

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2026 Virginia Tech Season Preview

Virginia Tech football has spent most of the last decade trying to figure out how to get back to being Virginia Tech football. Justin Fuente couldn’t do it. Brent Pry couldn’t do it. Now Virginia Tech has gone out and hired a coach who has actually built a winning Power 4 program before.

James Franklin is the head coach at Virginia Tech. That still feels a little weird to type. Franklin has completely overhauled the roster and coaching staff in one offseason. This is going to be one of the most interesting Virginia Tech teams we’ve seen in a long time because I genuinely don’t know what to expect.

The ceiling is pretty high. The floor could be pretty low. Welcome to Year 1.

Coaching Staff

This season is all about James Franklin.

Virginia Tech didn’t hire Franklin to go 7-5 every year and play in the Military Bowl. They hired him because they believe Virginia Tech can compete at the top of the ACC again.

The biggest thing Franklin brings is credibility. He’s won a lot of football games. He knows how to recruit. He knows how to build a staff. He knows what a major college football operation is supposed to look like.

That doesn’t mean Virginia Tech is immediately going to win 10 games. The roster needed a lot of work after last season and Franklin basically had to rebuild the team in one offseason. There are going to be growing pains.

The most interesting coaching decision was bringing Brent Pry back as defensive coordinator. I don’t think many Virginia Tech fans had “Brent Pry returns to Blacksburg three months after being fired” on their offseason bingo card. But I actually like it. Pry wasn’t a good head coach at Virginia Tech. That doesn’t mean he’s a bad defensive coordinator. Those are two very different jobs. Pry built his reputation coaching defense and now he can go back to doing that without worrying about timeouts, fourth-down decisions, roster management, fundraising, recruiting and everything else that comes with being the head coach.

Maybe this works. Maybe it’s incredibly awkward. Either way, it’s going to be interesting.

Offense

The biggest question on offense is quarterback. And the answer appears to be Ethan Grunkemeyer. Franklin brought Grunkemeyer with him from Penn State, which gives him a major advantage in learning the offense and understanding what Franklin expects from his quarterback. Virginia Tech doesn’t need Grunkemeyer to be Michael Vick. They need him to be good. That’s really it.

For years, Virginia Tech has had offenses where it felt like everything needed to go perfectly to score points. One penalty killed a drive. One sack killed a drive. One dropped pass killed a drive. Good football teams don’t operate that way. Grunkemeyer needs to consistently move the offense, protect the football and get the ball to Virginia Tech’s playmakers. The good news is there should be some talent around him.

Ayden Greene is back at receiver along with Keylen Adams, Chanz Wiggins and Takye Heath. Franklin also added experience through the portal. There are enough pieces here for Virginia Tech to have a respectable passing game. I expect Luke Reynolds to lead this team in receiving from the tight end spot.

The offensive line is probably the bigger concern. Franklin has spent a lot of resources rebuilding that room, including signing a huge group of offensive linemen in his first recruiting class. That’s encouraging long term.

It doesn’t necessarily help you against Miami in November. If Virginia Tech can get average-to-good offensive line play this season, I think the offense can surprise people. If the offensive line struggles, everything gets considerably more difficult.

Defense

This might be where Virginia Tech has its best chance to outperform expectations. Brent Pry knows defense. Now he gets to spend all of his time coaching it.

Virginia Tech has added a lot of experience in the secondary through the portal. Jordan Bass, Sherrod Covil Jr., Tyson Flowers and Isaiah Brown-Murray give Pry some experienced pieces to work with. Quentin Reddish also returns. The secondary should be pretty good.

The question is the front seven. Virginia Tech needs to get back to being disruptive defensively. I’m not expecting Bud Foster 1999 here. But Virginia Tech needs to pressure quarterbacks. They need to tackle better. They need to create negative plays. And they need to stop giving up the kind of ridiculous explosive plays that have killed them over the last several seasons.

This doesn’t need to be a Top 10 defense. If Pry can get this defense somewhere around the Top 30-40 nationally, Virginia Tech should win some football games.

The Roster

Franklin basically hit the reset button. This is going to look like a completely different football team. That makes Virginia Tech extremely difficult to predict. There is clearly more talent on the roster than there was at the end of last season. Franklin attacked the transfer portal and also signed a Top 30 recruiting class. The problem is that collecting talent and building a football team aren’t exactly the same thing. These guys have to play together. There are new quarterbacks, new linemen, new defensive backs and new coaches. That’s a lot of moving pieces. I would expect Virginia Tech to look considerably better in November than they do in September.

The good news is the schedule gives them some time to figure things out.

Non-Conference Schedule

Virginia Tech finally did something smart. They gave a new coach a reasonable non-conference schedule. The Hokies open against VMI in Lane Stadium at night. Virginia Tech should win that game comfortably.

Old Dominion comes to Blacksburg the following week. Virginia Tech should win that game too. We’ve seen enough weird things happen against ODU over the years that I’m never going to completely dismiss them, but Virginia Tech should have a significant talent advantage.

Then comes Maryland. This is the first game where we’ll actually learn something about this team. Going into College Park for a 7:30 game is a legitimate Power 4 road test. If Virginia Tech beats Maryland, there’s a pretty good chance the Hokies start 4-0. If they lose, it’s not the end of the world. But Maryland is the kind of team Virginia Tech needs to start beating again if they want to become nationally relevant.

ACC Outlook

The ACC schedule is interesting.

Virginia Tech opens conference play at Boston College before getting Pitt at home on a Friday night. Then things get tougher.

Tech travels across the country to play Cal, gets Georgia Tech at home and then goes to Clemson. After the bye, the Hokies travel to SMU, get Stanford at home, travel to Miami and finish with Virginia in Lane Stadium.

There aren’t many automatic wins in there. There also aren’t many games where I look at the schedule and think Virginia Tech has absolutely no chance. Clemson and Miami are obviously going to be difficult. SMU on the road won’t be easy.

But Pitt, Boston College, Cal, Georgia Tech, Stanford and Virginia all look like games Virginia Tech can win if the Hokies are competent.

That’s basically the story of this season. Be competent. For years Virginia Tech has found ways to lose games against teams with similar talent. Franklin was hired to stop that.

Key Players to Watch

QB Ethan Grunkemeyer

This is the obvious one. If Grunkemeyer is good, Virginia Tech could have a pretty good season. If he’s bad, it’s difficult to see Tech winning eight games.

WR Ayden Greene

Virginia Tech needs a legitimate No. 1 receiver. Greene has the talent to become that guy.

S Quentin Reddish

One of the most important returning players on the roster. Virginia Tech added a lot of pieces to the secondary but having an experienced returning player back there is huge.

The Entire Offensive Line

This might be the most important position group on the team. Virginia Tech hasn’t consistently controlled the line of scrimmage offensively in years. That needs to change.

What I’m Looking For

I’m not judging James Franklin’s first season exclusively by wins and losses. Obviously wins matter. But I want Virginia Tech to look like a well-coached football team again. I want fewer stupid penalties. I want better clock management. I want players to know where they’re supposed to be. I want Virginia Tech to stop finding increasingly creative ways to lose one-score football games. I want the Hokies to beat teams they’re supposed to beat. That sounds like a low bar. After the last few seasons, it isn’t. Franklin doesn’t need to win the ACC this year. He needs to make it obvious that Virginia Tech is heading in the right direction.

Tough Games (<40% chance to win)

at Clemson

This is probably the toughest game on the schedule. Winning in Death Valley is hard for everybody. Virginia Tech would need to play its best game of the season.

at Miami

Miami has been recruiting at a much higher level than Virginia Tech. Going to Hard Rock Stadium late in the season is going to be difficult.

at SMU

Friday night. On the road. Against one of the better programs in the ACC. Not ideal.

Toss-Up Games

at Maryland

This is our first real look at the Hokies.

Pitt

Friday night in Lane Stadium. This feels like exactly the kind of game Virginia Tech should win if Franklin has things moving in the right direction.

at Cal

Travel is weird. Cal is weird. ACC football is weird.

Georgia Tech

This could end up being one of the biggest games of the season.

Stanford

Virginia Tech should have the talent advantage, but I’m not ready to automatically put any ACC game in the win column.

Virginia

It’s Virginia. Virginia Tech could be 1-10 and I’d still convince myself they’re going to win this game.

Should Win Games (>60% chance to win)

VMI

If this isn’t a win, we have significantly bigger problems.

Old Dominion

No trips to Norfolk this time. Thank God.

at Boston College

Road conference games are never automatic, but this is one Virginia Tech needs to win.

Key Games

Maryland

This tells us how quickly Franklin has this thing moving.

Pitt

Friday night in Lane. Win this game.

Georgia Tech

This could be the difference between a six-win season and an eight-win season.

Virginia

Always.

Upset Alert

at Cal

Cal has a great QB and it’s a cross-country trip right in the thick of the schedule. I call these type of games a scheduled loss.

Game-by-Game Predictions

VMI — Win

Old Dominion — Win

at Maryland — Win

at Boston College — Win

Pitt — Win

at Cal — Loss

Georgia Tech — Win

at Clemson — Loss

at SMU — Loss

Stanford — Win

at Miami — Loss

Virginia — Win

Final Prediction

Virginia Tech: 8-4

That’s probably a little optimistic.

Virginia Tech has a real football coach again. There are enough winnable games on this schedule for Franklin to have a successful first season. The Hokies don’t have Clemson or Miami’s roster yet, but they shouldn’t need it to beat VMI, Old Dominion, Boston College, Pitt, Stanford and Virginia Get those six. Then beat two of Maryland, Cal, Georgia Tech and SMU. That’s eight wins. More importantly, I think Virginia Tech will actually look better at the end of the season than it does at the beginning.

That hasn’t always been the case around here. The long-term goal is obviously much bigger than 8-4. Virginia Tech didn’t make this investment to become a slightly better bowl team. The goal is to get back to Charlotte. Then get back into the Top 25. Then get back into the College Football Playoff conversation. That’s going to take some time. But for the first time in a while, I actually believe Virginia Tech has the head coach capable of getting them there.

Final Regular Season Record: 8-4

Expected ACC Finish: 5th-7th

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How I Did With My Predictions This Year and ACC Final Thoughts

Here’s a link to my preseason predictions: https://treadmillhorse.com/2025/08/20/2025-virginia-tech-season-preview/

A historically bad year with my predictions, where I went 7-5 in the preseason and 8-4 with my week-to-week predictions. But I did go 6-0 with my week-to-week predictions in the second half of the season. It took me a bit to get a feel for who this team actually was. Hopefully, in the future I can predict more wins and fewer losses.

GamePreseason PredictionGame Week PredictionResult
South Carolina
Vanderbilt
Old Dominion
Wofford
at NC State
Wake Forest
at Georgia Tech
California
Louisville
at Florida State
Miami
at Virginia
Prediction Record7-58-4
Virginia Tech Game by Game Predictions

Here’s a link to my preseason ACC Predictions: https://treadmillhorse.com/2025/08/23/preseason-acc-predictions/

Final thoughts on the ACC Standings:

Final ACC Standings Comments

7-1 (10-3)		Virginia found their footing this year and looked like a legit team. Unfortunately, they couldn’t find their best game in the ACC Championship Game.

6-2 (8-4)		This is a team (like Virginia) that benefited from a soft ACC schedule. Massive disappointment the last week of the season with a chance to go to Charlotte.

6-2 (10-2)		Miami needs to stop dropping games they shouldn’t. Other than that, they represented the ACC very well in non-conference games.

6-2 (9-3)		This could’ve been a CFP team before they lost 3 of their last 4 games.

6-2 (9-3)		Overall, a pretty good year but that loss to WVU looks pretty bad in hindsight.

6-2 (8-5)		The ACC champs. Probably the most unlikely ACC champs since Wake won the league in ’06. Manny Diaz continues to impress.

6-2 (7-5)		One of the most up and down seasons in the league. At least they have a quarterback.

4-4 (7-5)		Disappointing year by Clemson’s standards but at least they won their last four games.

4-4 (7-5)		As Jekyll and Hyde as your going to find in this league.

4-4 (8-4)		Look out because Wake Forest has 2026 sleeper written all over them.

4-4 (8-4)		After a great start, collapsed down the stretch in ACC play.

3-5 (4-8)		Generally, not good but beating Cal the way they did was impressive.

2-6 (5-7)		Salvaged a season that looked like it was headed down the toilet. You have to wonder if they are going to regret not firing Mike Norvell this year.

2-6 (4-8)		Probably the biggest disappointment in the league. Year 1 of Bill Belichick was a bust.

2-6 (3-9)		Pretty bad all the way around but they may have won the coaching carousel this year.

1-7 (2-10)		Won the first game and the last game and pretty bad in between with some moral victories sprinkled in.

1-7 (3-9)		What I’ll remember are the performative post-game wind sprints and losing to Notre Dame 70-7.
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Virginia vs Virginia Tech Preview and Prediction

Date & Time: Saturday, November 29, 2025 at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Location: Scott Stadium, Charlottesville, Va.
Series: Virginia Tech leads 62–38–5
Streaks: VT has dominated the rivalry for two decades, winning 17 of the last 18 meetings.

This rivalry is finally starting to develop some juice with Virginia having a great regular season and Virginia Tech hiring a big-time football coach. Both programs are pumping serious money into football and it looks like football in the Commonwealth is about to take off.

This game will be decided by quarterback play. On paper, UVA has the better QB in Chandler Morris. Virginia Tech has a couple of talented guys in Kyron Drones and Pop Watson but both have been inconsistent so far this year. To win, Virginia Tech is going to have to get an A-level performance out of one or both of their QBs.

Virginia has balance when they have the football. They can run it and throw it well. They have a couple of running backs with a good yard per carry average and they have a bunch of reliable targets in the passing game. This isn’t an offense that’s going to wow you but they’ve got the pieces to slowly and steadily move the ball downfield consistently.

Virginia is only giving up 21.2 points per game this year. That’s good for 37th nationally. They are a solid defense that likes to lock teams down on third down. They are 6th in the country at forcing stops on the third down. They only allow 29.7% conversion on third down. If the Hokies want to move the ball, they should look for big plays in the passing game. UVA is susceptible to giving up the big play on the backend of their defense.

These games are always weird. It’s a cliche but throw the stats out the window. Tech always plays above their weight class in this matchup and Virginia tends to make uncharacteristic mistakes in this game. A couple of things I like for Virginia Tech in this game a) UVA has played one of the weakest schedules in the ACC this year b) they are coming off a bye last week which can sometimes leads to some early rust on offense. Virginia might get off to a slow start, so Virginia Tech will have to take advantage of that. Vegas is giving UVA too much credit in this one. It ends in a one-possession game but just like the 2019 game, Virginia has the better QB and UVA wins by a touchdown.

Prediction: Virginia 28, Virginia Tech 21

📈 Betting Line & Market

  • Spread: Virginia -9.5 vs Virginia Tech +9.5
  • Total: 52.5–53.5 (most commonly 52.5 or 53)
  • Moneyline: Around UVA -360 / VT +285

📐 Advanced Analytics vs. Market

SP+ (Bill Connelly / ESPN):

  • Gives UVA a 92% win probability and a projected score of 38–16 (UVA by 22).

ESPN FPI:

  • Has UVA at 80.1% win probability, VT at 19.9%.

Compare that to the betting market:

  • Market implied UVA win chance (around -360) ≈ mid-70s %
  • Analytics (SP+, FPI) say 80–92% → they see UVA as an even bigger favorite than the line suggests.
  • Books: UVA by ~9.5
  • SP+: UVA by ~22
  • FPI: UVA by something like 10–13, depending on home-field assumption.

🧠 Big-Picture Summary

  • Market: UVA -9.5, 52.5 total, ML around -360.
  • Analytics: Strongly favor UVA (80–92% win probability, SP+ by 22).
  • Risk factors: Rivalry chaos, cold weather, UVA’s LB injury

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Virginia Hate Week Podcast with HoosFootball

This week we are joined by HoosFootball for our third annual HATE WEEK Podcast. He has been a long-time follower of UVA football. If you take a look at this website, HoosFootball.com, you’ll see a ton of great information on the history of UVA football. In addition to that, he’s a talented podcaster himself, as one of the hosts of the Message Board Geniuses podcast. Enjoy!

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Miami vs Virginia Tech Preview and Prediction

Date & Time: Saturday, November 22, 2025 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Location: Lane Stadium, Blacksburg, VA
Television: ESPN (play-by-play: Bob Wischusen; analyst: Louis Riddick; sideline: Kris Budden)

Virginia Tech Hokies: 3-7 overall, 2-4 in the ACC.
Miami Hurricanes: 8-2 overall, 4-2 in the ACC.

Virginia Tech got their guy. This program feels like it just got a massive wave of positive momentum behind it. So the rest of this season feels a bit like an afterthought but it’s extremely important for the players and coaches playing for next year.

Miami’s offense is explosive, particularly throwing the ball. If Carson Beck is at his best, Miami is tough to stop. They’ve got talented receivers all over the field. This is a game where the DBs have to show up and keep Beck from lighting them up downfield. This is an offense that relies on the big play, so if the Hokies can stop the chunk plays downfield, they have a shot at slowing down this offense.

The key to this game is Miami’s defense. They are top 10 defense who can absolutely stonewall the run. Miami can be beat over the top but that would rely on Kyron Drones and his receivers making plays downfield. That has been pretty inconsistent so far this year.

This game has a not-so-fast-my-friend feel to it. It’s Virginia Tech’s Senior Day. Four of the last five matchups in this series have been decided by 7 points or less. Miami has been less-than-impressive on the road this year and this is unbelievably only their third road game of the season. I’m not ready to pick the upset but it’s closer than the experts think.

Prediction: Miami 28, Virginia Tech 21

📈 Betting Line & Market

Spread: Miami -17.5 at most books (opened ~-16.5, ticked up).
Total: 48.5 (some 49.5s in the market).

Moneyline

Miami: around -950 to -1200
Virginia Tech: around +600 to +700

That translates roughly to Miami win probability ~90–92% in betting terms.

Recent performance vs ATS:

Miami: 8–2 SU, 6–4 ATS, scoring 33.7 ppg, allowing 14.2 ppg.
Virginia Tech: 3–7 SU, 2–8 ATS, scoring 23.3 ppg, allowing 30.1 ppg.
Trend: VT is 2–9 ATS last 11; Miami 8–2 SU last 10.

Raw model score:

Miami ~32 – VT ~19 → Miami -13 to -14, Total ~50–51.

Market total: 48.5.
Model total: ~51.


Both trends and matchup history lean UNDER in this series, especially in Blacksburg (UNDER in 4 of last 5 meetings at VT).