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VMI vs Virginia Tech Preview and Prediction

Date & Time: Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 7:30 p.m. ET
Location: Lane Stadium, Blacksburg, Virginia
Broadcast: ACC Network
Records: Virginia Tech (0-0), VMI (0-1)

The James Franklin era officially begins Saturday night in Blacksburg. Lane Stadium is sold out. It’s a night game. Enter Sandman. A new coaching staff. Basically an entire new roster. There probably isn’t another game against an FCS opponent that Virginia Tech fans could possibly be this excited about.

Virginia Tech should beat VMI comfortably. This game isn’t really about whether Virginia Tech wins. It’s about what the Hokies look like doing it.

VMI already has one game under its belt after losing 38-10 at Idaho State last Saturday. The Keydets actually ran for 229 yards but essentially didn’t have a passing game, finishing with only 11 passing yards. That makes the assignment for Virginia Tech pretty straightforward: stop the run.

VMI is breaking in a new head coach too. Ashley Ingram came over from Carson-Newman and has installed an option-based offense after spending 14 years on the staff at Navy. That makes this slightly more annoying than your typical FCS opener. Option football can create problems if guys don’t stay disciplined.

This should be a good first test for the new Virginia Tech defense. I want to see the defensive line control the line of scrimmage and the linebackers play disciplined football. Don’t chase the wrong guy. Don’t miss tackles. Don’t give VMI eight-minute drives that shorten the game. Make them throw the football. If Virginia Tech does that, VMI is going to have a very difficult time scoring.

The more interesting side of the ball is Virginia Tech’s offense. Ethan Grunkemeyer has officially won the quarterback job. Grunkemeyer doesn’t need to throw for 400 yards Saturday. He needs to look comfortable, protect the football and get the offense moving.

This is essentially a live scrimmage before the schedule starts getting more interesting. Virginia Tech should lean on Marcellous Hawkins and Jeffrey Overton Jr. early. The offensive line has been one of my biggest questions about this team all offseason. Against VMI, there really shouldn’t be any excuses. Tech should be bigger, stronger and more talented up front. Line up and run the ball. If Virginia Tech can’t consistently move VMI off the line of scrimmage, I’m going to be concerned.

The receivers are probably the position group I’m most excited to see. Ayden Greene and Duke transfer Que’Sean Brown give Grunkemeyer two legitimate weapons, while Marlion Jackson appears to have put himself in position to play a significant role. There’s enough talent in this group for Virginia Tech to have a pretty good passing offense if Grunkemeyer is the guy Franklin thinks he can be. But again, this is VMI.

I’m not going to learn much if Virginia Tech wins 45-7. They’re supposed to win 45-7. What I’m looking for is whether Virginia Tech looks organized. Do they get plays in on time? Are there stupid penalties? Does the offensive line control the game? Does Grunkemeyer look comfortable? Does the defense tackle? Does Virginia Tech put an inferior opponent away instead of screwing around for three quarters? Those things matter.

Virginia Tech has spent the better part of the last decade turning games against teams like VMI into unnecessarily stressful experiences. James Franklin was hired to end that. Saturday night is the first opportunity.

Players to Watch

QB Ethan Grunkemeyer

This is the obvious one. We finally get to see what the new quarterback looks like when the jersey colors are different on the other side of the field. I don’t care about huge numbers. I want to see accuracy, good decisions and command of the offense.

RB Marcellous Hawkins

Virginia Tech should be able to run the football in this game. Hawkins has a chance to establish himself immediately as the lead back.

WR Ayden Greene

Greene needs to become Virginia Tech’s No. 1 receiver this season. I’d like to see him make a couple plays downfield and then spend most of the second half standing on the sideline.

Virginia Tech Linebackers

Option football puts a lot of stress on linebackers. Stay disciplined, tackle the guy with the football and don’t turn this into something more complicated than it needs to be.

What I Want to See

Virginia Tech needs to dominate the line of scrimmage. That’s No. 1. I also want the starters out of this game relatively early. Get Grunkemeyer comfortable. Establish the running game. Let the defense get some reps against the option. Get up four touchdowns and start playing the young guys.

There is absolutely no reason for Grunkemeyer or any other important starter to be playing meaningful snaps in the fourth quarter. VMI went 1-11 last season and just lost by 28 points to Idaho State. Virginia Tech has a massive talent advantage at essentially every position.

Prediction

There’s going to be a ridiculous amount of energy in Lane Stadium Saturday night considering Virginia Tech is playing VMI. That’s what happens when you hire James Franklin.

I expect Virginia Tech to come out a little sloppy because basically everything is new. There will probably be a penalty that drives everyone insane. VMI will probably put together one long option drive where everyone on Twitter starts complaining about the linebackers. Then the talent difference takes over.

Grunkemeyer throws a couple touchdowns. Virginia Tech runs for well over 200 yards. The defense settles in after seeing the option for a few possessions and VMI struggles to consistently move the football. Most importantly, the game is boring by the fourth quarter. That would be a nice change.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 45, VMI 10

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The Betting Line

Virginia Tech is currently a 50.5-point favorite over VMI with the total sitting around 58.5. Yes, you read that correctly.

Fifty. And. A. Half.

Virginia Tech has spent the last several years making me terrified of laying basically any number of points with them, so asking the Hokies to win a football game by more than seven touchdowns feels objectively insane. But this is also probably the biggest talent mismatch Virginia Tech will have all season.

VMI went 1-11 last year and opened this season with a 38-10 loss to Idaho State. The Keydets were outgained 454-240 and averaged just 3.9 yards per play.

The interesting number here might actually be the total. If Virginia Tech covers 50.5, they’re probably doing most of the work required to get the game over 58.5 themselves. The question becomes whether VMI can contribute enough points before Franklin empties the bench.

Spread: Virginia Tech -50.5
Total: 58.5

I have absolutely no interest in betting Virginia Tech -50.5. But if they want to cover it, I will not complain.

SP+ / FPI

The computers are considerably more bullish on Virginia Tech than they were a year ago.

Virginia Tech enters the season No. 36 nationally in SP+, with an overall rating of +8.6. The Hokies rank 38th offensively and 38th defensively.

ESPN’s FPI likes Tech even more, ranking the Hokies No. 33 nationally with a +7.4 rating.

Those aren’t College Football Playoff numbers, but they’re pretty encouraging considering Virginia Tech finished 3-9 last season.

SP+ includes lower-division teams in Bill Connelly’s complete ratings database, and VMI currently checks in at No. 376.

The actual SP+ projection for Saturday is hilarious:

Virginia Tech 68, VMI 0.

SP+ gives Virginia Tech essentially a 100% win probability and projects the Hokies to outperform the Vegas spread by roughly 17 points.

So apparently the computers aren’t particularly concerned about James Franklin’s debut. I’m not either.

Key Statistical Matchups

VMI rushing offense vs. Virginia Tech run defense

This is the only matchup that genuinely interests me from VMI’s perspective.

The Keydets ran for 229 yards on 52 carries against Idaho State, averaging 4.4 yards per carry. They held the ball for nearly 35 minutes. That is the offense. Virginia Tech knows exactly what is coming. VMI wants to run the option, shorten the game and keep Virginia Tech’s offense standing on the sideline.

If the Hokies are getting pushed around and allowing VMI to consistently pick up four or five yards on first down, that’s something worth paying attention to.

VMI passing offense vs. literally anybody

VMI threw for 11 yards against Idaho State. They completed five passes for an average of 2.2 yards per completion. I don’t even know how you do that. If Virginia Tech can put VMI behind the chains and force the Keydets into obvious passing situations, drives should end very quickly.

Virginia Tech offense vs. VMI defense

Idaho State averaged 7.1 yards per play against VMI and threw for 366 yards and four touchdowns.

That’s the matchup where I want to see Ethan Grunkemeyer immediately look comfortable. Virginia Tech doesn’t need to get cute. Run the football, use play action, let Grunkemeyer push the ball downfield to Ayden Greene and Que’Sean Brown and make VMI defend the entire field. The talent advantage should be enormous.

Third down

VMI went just 3-for-16 on third down against Idaho State. That’s 18.8%. This is another area where Virginia Tech should dominate. Get VMI into third-and-long, force them out of the option game and get the defense off the field.

The worst possible version of Saturday is VMI repeatedly converting third-and-3, bleeding six minutes off the clock and turning the game into the world’s most boring 38-7 win. Don’t let them do that.

The Numbers

Virginia Tech

  • SP+: No. 36 (+8.6)
  • FPI: No. 33 (+7.4)
  • SP+ Offense: No. 38
  • SP+ Defense: No. 38
  • Betting Line: VT -50.5
  • Total: 58.5

VMI vs. Idaho State

  • Points: 10
  • Total offense: 240 yards
  • Rushing: 229 yards
  • Passing: 11 yards
  • Yards per play: 3.9
  • Third downs: 3-of-16
  • Time of possession: 34:59

SP+ Prediction: Virginia Tech 68, VMI 0

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2026 Virginia Tech Season Preview

Virginia Tech football has spent most of the last decade trying to figure out how to get back to being Virginia Tech football. Justin Fuente couldn’t do it. Brent Pry couldn’t do it. Now Virginia Tech has gone out and hired a coach who has actually built a winning Power 4 program before.

James Franklin is the head coach at Virginia Tech. That still feels a little weird to type. Franklin has completely overhauled the roster and coaching staff in one offseason. This is going to be one of the most interesting Virginia Tech teams we’ve seen in a long time because I genuinely don’t know what to expect.

The ceiling is pretty high. The floor could be pretty low. Welcome to Year 1.

Coaching Staff

This season is all about James Franklin.

Virginia Tech didn’t hire Franklin to go 7-5 every year and play in the Military Bowl. They hired him because they believe Virginia Tech can compete at the top of the ACC again.

The biggest thing Franklin brings is credibility. He’s won a lot of football games. He knows how to recruit. He knows how to build a staff. He knows what a major college football operation is supposed to look like.

That doesn’t mean Virginia Tech is immediately going to win 10 games. The roster needed a lot of work after last season and Franklin basically had to rebuild the team in one offseason. There are going to be growing pains.

The most interesting coaching decision was bringing Brent Pry back as defensive coordinator. I don’t think many Virginia Tech fans had “Brent Pry returns to Blacksburg three months after being fired” on their offseason bingo card. But I actually like it. Pry wasn’t a good head coach at Virginia Tech. That doesn’t mean he’s a bad defensive coordinator. Those are two very different jobs. Pry built his reputation coaching defense and now he can go back to doing that without worrying about timeouts, fourth-down decisions, roster management, fundraising, recruiting and everything else that comes with being the head coach.

Maybe this works. Maybe it’s incredibly awkward. Either way, it’s going to be interesting.

Offense

The biggest question on offense is quarterback. And the answer appears to be Ethan Grunkemeyer. Franklin brought Grunkemeyer with him from Penn State, which gives him a major advantage in learning the offense and understanding what Franklin expects from his quarterback. Virginia Tech doesn’t need Grunkemeyer to be Michael Vick. They need him to be good. That’s really it.

For years, Virginia Tech has had offenses where it felt like everything needed to go perfectly to score points. One penalty killed a drive. One sack killed a drive. One dropped pass killed a drive. Good football teams don’t operate that way. Grunkemeyer needs to consistently move the offense, protect the football and get the ball to Virginia Tech’s playmakers. The good news is there should be some talent around him.

Ayden Greene is back at receiver along with Keylen Adams, Chanz Wiggins and Takye Heath. Franklin also added experience through the portal. There are enough pieces here for Virginia Tech to have a respectable passing game. I expect Luke Reynolds to lead this team in receiving from the tight end spot.

The offensive line is probably the bigger concern. Franklin has spent a lot of resources rebuilding that room, including signing a huge group of offensive linemen in his first recruiting class. That’s encouraging long term.

It doesn’t necessarily help you against Miami in November. If Virginia Tech can get average-to-good offensive line play this season, I think the offense can surprise people. If the offensive line struggles, everything gets considerably more difficult.

Defense

This might be where Virginia Tech has its best chance to outperform expectations. Brent Pry knows defense. Now he gets to spend all of his time coaching it.

Virginia Tech has added a lot of experience in the secondary through the portal. Jordan Bass, Sherrod Covil Jr., Tyson Flowers and Isaiah Brown-Murray give Pry some experienced pieces to work with. Quentin Reddish also returns. The secondary should be pretty good.

The question is the front seven. Virginia Tech needs to get back to being disruptive defensively. I’m not expecting Bud Foster 1999 here. But Virginia Tech needs to pressure quarterbacks. They need to tackle better. They need to create negative plays. And they need to stop giving up the kind of ridiculous explosive plays that have killed them over the last several seasons.

This doesn’t need to be a Top 10 defense. If Pry can get this defense somewhere around the Top 30-40 nationally, Virginia Tech should win some football games.

The Roster

Franklin basically hit the reset button. This is going to look like a completely different football team. That makes Virginia Tech extremely difficult to predict. There is clearly more talent on the roster than there was at the end of last season. Franklin attacked the transfer portal and also signed a Top 30 recruiting class. The problem is that collecting talent and building a football team aren’t exactly the same thing. These guys have to play together. There are new quarterbacks, new linemen, new defensive backs and new coaches. That’s a lot of moving pieces. I would expect Virginia Tech to look considerably better in November than they do in September.

The good news is the schedule gives them some time to figure things out.

Non-Conference Schedule

Virginia Tech finally did something smart. They gave a new coach a reasonable non-conference schedule. The Hokies open against VMI in Lane Stadium at night. Virginia Tech should win that game comfortably.

Old Dominion comes to Blacksburg the following week. Virginia Tech should win that game too. We’ve seen enough weird things happen against ODU over the years that I’m never going to completely dismiss them, but Virginia Tech should have a significant talent advantage.

Then comes Maryland. This is the first game where we’ll actually learn something about this team. Going into College Park for a 7:30 game is a legitimate Power 4 road test. If Virginia Tech beats Maryland, there’s a pretty good chance the Hokies start 4-0. If they lose, it’s not the end of the world. But Maryland is the kind of team Virginia Tech needs to start beating again if they want to become nationally relevant.

ACC Outlook

The ACC schedule is interesting.

Virginia Tech opens conference play at Boston College before getting Pitt at home on a Friday night. Then things get tougher.

Tech travels across the country to play Cal, gets Georgia Tech at home and then goes to Clemson. After the bye, the Hokies travel to SMU, get Stanford at home, travel to Miami and finish with Virginia in Lane Stadium.

There aren’t many automatic wins in there. There also aren’t many games where I look at the schedule and think Virginia Tech has absolutely no chance. Clemson and Miami are obviously going to be difficult. SMU on the road won’t be easy.

But Pitt, Boston College, Cal, Georgia Tech, Stanford and Virginia all look like games Virginia Tech can win if the Hokies are competent.

That’s basically the story of this season. Be competent. For years Virginia Tech has found ways to lose games against teams with similar talent. Franklin was hired to stop that.

Key Players to Watch

QB Ethan Grunkemeyer

This is the obvious one. If Grunkemeyer is good, Virginia Tech could have a pretty good season. If he’s bad, it’s difficult to see Tech winning eight games.

WR Ayden Greene

Virginia Tech needs a legitimate No. 1 receiver. Greene has the talent to become that guy.

S Quentin Reddish

One of the most important returning players on the roster. Virginia Tech added a lot of pieces to the secondary but having an experienced returning player back there is huge.

The Entire Offensive Line

This might be the most important position group on the team. Virginia Tech hasn’t consistently controlled the line of scrimmage offensively in years. That needs to change.

What I’m Looking For

I’m not judging James Franklin’s first season exclusively by wins and losses. Obviously wins matter. But I want Virginia Tech to look like a well-coached football team again. I want fewer stupid penalties. I want better clock management. I want players to know where they’re supposed to be. I want Virginia Tech to stop finding increasingly creative ways to lose one-score football games. I want the Hokies to beat teams they’re supposed to beat. That sounds like a low bar. After the last few seasons, it isn’t. Franklin doesn’t need to win the ACC this year. He needs to make it obvious that Virginia Tech is heading in the right direction.

Tough Games (<40% chance to win)

at Clemson

This is probably the toughest game on the schedule. Winning in Death Valley is hard for everybody. Virginia Tech would need to play its best game of the season.

at Miami

Miami has been recruiting at a much higher level than Virginia Tech. Going to Hard Rock Stadium late in the season is going to be difficult.

at SMU

Friday night. On the road. Against one of the better programs in the ACC. Not ideal.

Toss-Up Games

at Maryland

This is our first real look at the Hokies.

Pitt

Friday night in Lane Stadium. This feels like exactly the kind of game Virginia Tech should win if Franklin has things moving in the right direction.

at Cal

Travel is weird. Cal is weird. ACC football is weird.

Georgia Tech

This could end up being one of the biggest games of the season.

Stanford

Virginia Tech should have the talent advantage, but I’m not ready to automatically put any ACC game in the win column.

Virginia

It’s Virginia. Virginia Tech could be 1-10 and I’d still convince myself they’re going to win this game.

Should Win Games (>60% chance to win)

VMI

If this isn’t a win, we have significantly bigger problems.

Old Dominion

No trips to Norfolk this time. Thank God.

at Boston College

Road conference games are never automatic, but this is one Virginia Tech needs to win.

Key Games

Maryland

This tells us how quickly Franklin has this thing moving.

Pitt

Friday night in Lane. Win this game.

Georgia Tech

This could be the difference between a six-win season and an eight-win season.

Virginia

Always.

Upset Alert

at Cal

Cal has a great QB and it’s a cross-country trip right in the thick of the schedule. I call these type of games a scheduled loss.

Game-by-Game Predictions

VMI — Win

Old Dominion — Win

at Maryland — Win

at Boston College — Win

Pitt — Win

at Cal — Loss

Georgia Tech — Win

at Clemson — Loss

at SMU — Loss

Stanford — Win

at Miami — Loss

Virginia — Win

Final Prediction

Virginia Tech: 8-4

That’s probably a little optimistic.

Virginia Tech has a real football coach again. There are enough winnable games on this schedule for Franklin to have a successful first season. The Hokies don’t have Clemson or Miami’s roster yet, but they shouldn’t need it to beat VMI, Old Dominion, Boston College, Pitt, Stanford and Virginia Get those six. Then beat two of Maryland, Cal, Georgia Tech and SMU. That’s eight wins. More importantly, I think Virginia Tech will actually look better at the end of the season than it does at the beginning.

That hasn’t always been the case around here. The long-term goal is obviously much bigger than 8-4. Virginia Tech didn’t make this investment to become a slightly better bowl team. The goal is to get back to Charlotte. Then get back into the Top 25. Then get back into the College Football Playoff conversation. That’s going to take some time. But for the first time in a while, I actually believe Virginia Tech has the head coach capable of getting them there.

Final Regular Season Record: 8-4

Expected ACC Finish: 5th-7th

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How I Did With My Predictions This Year and ACC Final Thoughts

Here’s a link to my preseason predictions: https://treadmillhorse.com/2025/08/20/2025-virginia-tech-season-preview/

A historically bad year with my predictions, where I went 7-5 in the preseason and 8-4 with my week-to-week predictions. But I did go 6-0 with my week-to-week predictions in the second half of the season. It took me a bit to get a feel for who this team actually was. Hopefully, in the future I can predict more wins and fewer losses.

GamePreseason PredictionGame Week PredictionResult
South Carolina
Vanderbilt
Old Dominion
Wofford
at NC State
Wake Forest
at Georgia Tech
California
Louisville
at Florida State
Miami
at Virginia
Prediction Record7-58-4
Virginia Tech Game by Game Predictions

Here’s a link to my preseason ACC Predictions: https://treadmillhorse.com/2025/08/23/preseason-acc-predictions/

Final thoughts on the ACC Standings:

Final ACC Standings Comments

7-1 (10-3)		Virginia found their footing this year and looked like a legit team. Unfortunately, they couldn’t find their best game in the ACC Championship Game.

6-2 (8-4)		This is a team (like Virginia) that benefited from a soft ACC schedule. Massive disappointment the last week of the season with a chance to go to Charlotte.

6-2 (10-2)		Miami needs to stop dropping games they shouldn’t. Other than that, they represented the ACC very well in non-conference games.

6-2 (9-3)		This could’ve been a CFP team before they lost 3 of their last 4 games.

6-2 (9-3)		Overall, a pretty good year but that loss to WVU looks pretty bad in hindsight.

6-2 (8-5)		The ACC champs. Probably the most unlikely ACC champs since Wake won the league in ’06. Manny Diaz continues to impress.

6-2 (7-5)		One of the most up and down seasons in the league. At least they have a quarterback.

4-4 (7-5)		Disappointing year by Clemson’s standards but at least they won their last four games.

4-4 (7-5)		As Jekyll and Hyde as your going to find in this league.

4-4 (8-4)		Look out because Wake Forest has 2026 sleeper written all over them.

4-4 (8-4)		After a great start, collapsed down the stretch in ACC play.

3-5 (4-8)		Generally, not good but beating Cal the way they did was impressive.

2-6 (5-7)		Salvaged a season that looked like it was headed down the toilet. You have to wonder if they are going to regret not firing Mike Norvell this year.

2-6 (4-8)		Probably the biggest disappointment in the league. Year 1 of Bill Belichick was a bust.

2-6 (3-9)		Pretty bad all the way around but they may have won the coaching carousel this year.

1-7 (2-10)		Won the first game and the last game and pretty bad in between with some moral victories sprinkled in.

1-7 (3-9)		What I’ll remember are the performative post-game wind sprints and losing to Notre Dame 70-7.
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Virginia vs Virginia Tech Preview and Prediction

Date & Time: Saturday, November 29, 2025 at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Location: Scott Stadium, Charlottesville, Va.
Series: Virginia Tech leads 62–38–5
Streaks: VT has dominated the rivalry for two decades, winning 17 of the last 18 meetings.

This rivalry is finally starting to develop some juice with Virginia having a great regular season and Virginia Tech hiring a big-time football coach. Both programs are pumping serious money into football and it looks like football in the Commonwealth is about to take off.

This game will be decided by quarterback play. On paper, UVA has the better QB in Chandler Morris. Virginia Tech has a couple of talented guys in Kyron Drones and Pop Watson but both have been inconsistent so far this year. To win, Virginia Tech is going to have to get an A-level performance out of one or both of their QBs.

Virginia has balance when they have the football. They can run it and throw it well. They have a couple of running backs with a good yard per carry average and they have a bunch of reliable targets in the passing game. This isn’t an offense that’s going to wow you but they’ve got the pieces to slowly and steadily move the ball downfield consistently.

Virginia is only giving up 21.2 points per game this year. That’s good for 37th nationally. They are a solid defense that likes to lock teams down on third down. They are 6th in the country at forcing stops on the third down. They only allow 29.7% conversion on third down. If the Hokies want to move the ball, they should look for big plays in the passing game. UVA is susceptible to giving up the big play on the backend of their defense.

These games are always weird. It’s a cliche but throw the stats out the window. Tech always plays above their weight class in this matchup and Virginia tends to make uncharacteristic mistakes in this game. A couple of things I like for Virginia Tech in this game a) UVA has played one of the weakest schedules in the ACC this year b) they are coming off a bye last week which can sometimes leads to some early rust on offense. Virginia might get off to a slow start, so Virginia Tech will have to take advantage of that. Vegas is giving UVA too much credit in this one. It ends in a one-possession game but just like the 2019 game, Virginia has the better QB and UVA wins by a touchdown.

Prediction: Virginia 28, Virginia Tech 21

📈 Betting Line & Market

  • Spread: Virginia -9.5 vs Virginia Tech +9.5
  • Total: 52.5–53.5 (most commonly 52.5 or 53)
  • Moneyline: Around UVA -360 / VT +285

📐 Advanced Analytics vs. Market

SP+ (Bill Connelly / ESPN):

  • Gives UVA a 92% win probability and a projected score of 38–16 (UVA by 22).

ESPN FPI:

  • Has UVA at 80.1% win probability, VT at 19.9%.

Compare that to the betting market:

  • Market implied UVA win chance (around -360) ≈ mid-70s %
  • Analytics (SP+, FPI) say 80–92% → they see UVA as an even bigger favorite than the line suggests.
  • Books: UVA by ~9.5
  • SP+: UVA by ~22
  • FPI: UVA by something like 10–13, depending on home-field assumption.

🧠 Big-Picture Summary

  • Market: UVA -9.5, 52.5 total, ML around -360.
  • Analytics: Strongly favor UVA (80–92% win probability, SP+ by 22).
  • Risk factors: Rivalry chaos, cold weather, UVA’s LB injury

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Virginia Hate Week Podcast with HoosFootball

This week we are joined by HoosFootball for our third annual HATE WEEK Podcast. He has been a long-time follower of UVA football. If you take a look at this website, HoosFootball.com, you’ll see a ton of great information on the history of UVA football. In addition to that, he’s a talented podcaster himself, as one of the hosts of the Message Board Geniuses podcast. Enjoy!

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Miami vs Virginia Tech Preview and Prediction

Date & Time: Saturday, November 22, 2025 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Location: Lane Stadium, Blacksburg, VA
Television: ESPN (play-by-play: Bob Wischusen; analyst: Louis Riddick; sideline: Kris Budden)

Virginia Tech Hokies: 3-7 overall, 2-4 in the ACC.
Miami Hurricanes: 8-2 overall, 4-2 in the ACC.

Virginia Tech got their guy. This program feels like it just got a massive wave of positive momentum behind it. So the rest of this season feels a bit like an afterthought but it’s extremely important for the players and coaches playing for next year.

Miami’s offense is explosive, particularly throwing the ball. If Carson Beck is at his best, Miami is tough to stop. They’ve got talented receivers all over the field. This is a game where the DBs have to show up and keep Beck from lighting them up downfield. This is an offense that relies on the big play, so if the Hokies can stop the chunk plays downfield, they have a shot at slowing down this offense.

The key to this game is Miami’s defense. They are top 10 defense who can absolutely stonewall the run. Miami can be beat over the top but that would rely on Kyron Drones and his receivers making plays downfield. That has been pretty inconsistent so far this year.

This game has a not-so-fast-my-friend feel to it. It’s Virginia Tech’s Senior Day. Four of the last five matchups in this series have been decided by 7 points or less. Miami has been less-than-impressive on the road this year and this is unbelievably only their third road game of the season. I’m not ready to pick the upset but it’s closer than the experts think.

Prediction: Miami 28, Virginia Tech 21

📈 Betting Line & Market

Spread: Miami -17.5 at most books (opened ~-16.5, ticked up).
Total: 48.5 (some 49.5s in the market).

Moneyline

Miami: around -950 to -1200
Virginia Tech: around +600 to +700

That translates roughly to Miami win probability ~90–92% in betting terms.

Recent performance vs ATS:

Miami: 8–2 SU, 6–4 ATS, scoring 33.7 ppg, allowing 14.2 ppg.
Virginia Tech: 3–7 SU, 2–8 ATS, scoring 23.3 ppg, allowing 30.1 ppg.
Trend: VT is 2–9 ATS last 11; Miami 8–2 SU last 10.

Raw model score:

Miami ~32 – VT ~19 → Miami -13 to -14, Total ~50–51.

Market total: 48.5.
Model total: ~51.


Both trends and matchup history lean UNDER in this series, especially in Blacksburg (UNDER in 4 of last 5 meetings at VT).

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Florida State vs Virginia Tech Preview and Prediction

Date & Time: Saturday, November 15th, 2025 at 7:30 p.m. ET
Location: Doak-Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, Florida
Matchup: Virginia Tech (3-6 overall, 2-3 in ACC) vs. Florida State (4-5 overall, 1-5 in ACC)
Television: ACC Network

Virginia Tech has a tough 3-game stretch to close the season. Florida State on the road, 18th ranked Miami at home, then close with 14th ranked Virginia on the road. This is an opportunity to build momentum for next year and for the next head coach. A lot of guys on this year’s team may not be here next year and this is an audition for the next coaching staff who will want to see who shined on this year’s team.

The Virginia Tech offense is good when they can run the ball. Can they run and control clock against Florida State? They need to get back to the formula that worked against Cal. Run your two top RBs and get Drones going in the run game. That’s the Hokies best path to moving ball against Florida State and for the rest of the season.

Virginia Tech has done a good job against Tommy Castellanos in the past when he was at Boston College. He is one of the few dual threat QBs that the Hokies have had success against. Castellanos looks like a more accomplished passer this year but the Hokies have shown they can get stops when they get pressure. A consistent pass rush would be big to securing a win this week.

When the Hokies have played the Seminoles in the past, it’s always come down to turnovers and special teams plays. This week will be no different. The team that can win the turnover battle and/or break a big special teams play will be the one who comes away with the win this week.

Florida State has been tough to figure out. They’ve won one out of their last six games. That one game was a beatdown of a pretty good Wake Forest team. They’ve played everyone else reasonably close but haven’t been able to get on the winning end of these games. They are a talented team but haven’t quite put it all together (except for the one Wake game). Virginia Tech has a decent chance in this game but they have to play a clean game. No bad turnovers or special teams snafus. All things being equal, Florida State has enough juice to win this game at home in a night game.

Prediction: Florida State 35, Virginia Tech 20

📈 Betting Line & Market

  • Moneyline: Florida State -578 (85% implied probability of a win)
  • Spread: FSU favored by roughly 12.5 to 14 points depending on book.
  • Total (Over/Under): Around 54.5 points in several books.

📊 Market Signals & What They Suggest

  • The large spread and heavy moneyline favorite status for Florida State indicates the market views them significantly stronger. The “win probability” derived from those odds (especially model‐based predictions) puts FSU at ~80%+ chance.
  • The O/U at ~54.5 suggests moderate scoring expectation — not a low‐scoring defensive slugfest, but also not expected to be a track meet above 60+.
  • Some line movement: initial spreads around –13.5 for FSU in reporting.

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Louisville vs Virginia Tech Preview and Prediction

Date & Time: Saturday, November 1, 2025 at 3 p.m. ET
Location: Lane Stadium, Blacksburg, Virginia
Matchup: Virginia Tech (3-5 overall, 2-2 in ACC) vs. Louisville (6-1 overall, 3-1 in ACC)
Television: The CW Network

Virginia Tech continues to have a talent gap but the game against Cal showed they can still be competitive. The next step is to use that momentum to score a win over a top 25 team. Louisville is very good but they are beatable. Especially playing in Lane. This is a big opportunity for Philip Montgomery and his guys to score a big win.

The Hokies need to run the same offense they did against Cal. Run the ball as many ways as Philip Montgomery can think of. Tech’s best offensive weapons are Kyron Drones, Marcellous Hawkins and Terion Stewart running the ball. Those three options give opponents more to think about than trying to force a passing game which hasn’t worked well this season. And as we saw last week, when the run game is working it opens up opportunities in the passing game.

Louisville has an explosive offense. This will be a much tougher task than Cal last week. Hopefully the defense is starting to figure it out and will be able to get some stops. Players to watch are RB Isaac Brown and WR Chris Bell. Both of those guys are game breakers and can make big plays when they get the ball in their hands.

In order to have a shot this week, the Hokies need to win the turnover battle. Capitalizing on a short field or two would help to even up this game a bit. If the turnover battle is even, that favors Louisville which should have a significant advantage when they have the ball.

Louisville looks every bit the part of a top 25 team. They beat #2 Miami two weeks ago. This is a team that scores a lot of points. They have many different ways they can beat you. The Hokies best chance is to control the clock, limit possessions and force a turnover or two. Otherwise, on paper, it looks like Louisville has a pretty significant advantage in this game.

Prediction: Louisville 34, Virginia Tech 20

📈 Betting Line & Market

  • Odds: Louisville favored by about 10.5 points, with total expected points ~ 53.5.

Market snapshot

  • Spread/Total/Moneyline: Louisville -10.5 (≈ -420), O/U 53.5, VT +325.
  • Implied score from market: ~Louisville 32 – VT 22 (solve from spread + total)
  • Implied win probs from ML: Louisville ~80.4%, VT ~23.6%. (Derived from -420/+325 posted by FOX Sports)

Public/computer angles

  • FOX/Data Skrive model: Louisville 37–19 (Louisville -10.5, Over).
  • SP+ (Bill Connelly via SI): Projects Louisville 35–19, Cardinals by 15.3 with VT win prob 17%; O/U projection 53.5. This is ~5 points stronger on Louisville than the market.
  • OddsShark computer: Predicted 34.4–24.6 (leans Louisville -10.5; predicted sum is ~59).
  • Consensus line checkers/news: Most outlets list Louisville -10.5 / 53.5; BetMGM listed -10.5 on Tuesday.

Spread:

  • Market: LOU -10.5.
  • SP+ fair line: LOU -15.3 → ~4.8 points of value toward Louisville vs. current spread.
  • Other computers (FOX/OddsShark) sit around LOU by 12–18

Total:

  • Market: 53.5.
  • SP+: 53.5 (no edge). FOX model sum 56 (slight Over).

Moneyline:

Market implies ~80% Louisville. SP+ VT win prob ~17% → aligns with the favorite being heavy.

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California vs Virginia Tech Preview and Prediction

Date & Time: Friday, October 24, 2025 at 7:30 p.m. ET
Location: Lane Stadium, Blacksburg, Virginia.
Teams & Records:
Virginia Tech (2-5 overall, 1-2 in the ACC)
California (5-2 overall, 2-1 in the ACC)
Broadcast: ESPN

Virginia Tech has been beaten up on the injury front so far this year. They’ve had to play seven weeks straight and you could see that starting to take a toll in the last two games. Luckily, the bye week comes at the right time and it’s an opportunity to get healthy and regroup before a tough stretch to end the season.

Virginia Tech needs to ride their running backs in this game. They need Terion Stewart and Marcellous Hawkins to come up big after a bye week. Kyron Drones doesn’t need to be throwing the ball all over the field this week. Line up and run the ball as many ways as Phillip Montgomery can come up with. This needs to be a run-heavy game for the Hokies.

The Hokies defense needs to be good on third down and in the red zone. Two areas they have struggled with this year. Cal is a team that is good at slowly and methodically working the ball down the field. The Hokies need to keep those drives short or hold them to field goals in the red zone.

A fast start would be huge. Cal has never been to Lane Stadium. Enter Sandman and the early energy will be a new experience for them. The Hokies need to use that early momentum to set the tone. Racing out to an early lead would be huge for their chances this week.

Sometimes I need to look at games like I’m not a Virginia Tech fan. This week it’d be easy to say well, Cal has the better team and better record, so they’re going to win. As Lee Corso would say, not so fast my friend. I like that Virginia Tech is coming off a bye and that Cal has a short week and has to travel cross-country. That’s not easy for any team. This is what I’d call a scheduled win for Virginia Tech. Bye week and at home vs short week and cross-country travel. The talent level is close so I’ll give the nod to the rested home team.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 27, California 24

📈 Betting Line & Market

Spread: VT -4.5

Total: 49.5–50 (slight upward creep from open)

Moneyline: VT ~-185 to -205 / Cal +160 to +170

Implied win prob: VT 65–67%; Cal ~37%

SP+ (Bill Connelly, ESPN)
Ratings put Cal ~No. 75 and VT ~No. 91
Projected score: Cal 26–25 (Cal ~52% win prob). Market lists VT as the favorite, so SP+ is +5.5 points off the spread (Cal +1 vs. market VT -4.5).

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Georgia Tech vs Virginia Tech Preview and Prediction

Date/Location: Saturday, October 11th 3:30pm ET
Channel: ACC Network
Venue: Bobby Dodd Stadium, Atlanta, GA

Virginia Tech played a very sloppy game against Wake Forest. That was a winnable game that the Hokies let slip away. The margin of error is slim this year. Mental mistakes are amplified when you don’t have the offense to come back and make up for those mistakes. If the Hokies want to win games down the stretch, they need to play smart football.

Georgia Tech is 5-0 but it’s a pretty shaky 5-0. They love to play to the level of their opponents. Which is a good sign for the Hokies. This is an immensely talented offense with Haynes King at quarterback and Jamal Haynes at running back. If I was Sam Siefkis, I’d be losing sleep over finding ways to stop Haynes King running the ball. He’s a very effective runner and the Hokies have had trouble with running QBs this year.

Georgia Tech has a good but not great defense. They’ve been bend but don’t break. The Hokies should be able to move the ball in this game but they need to cash in with touchdowns in the red zone. Field goals aren’t going to cut it. The Hokies need to get Kyron Drones on the run and out of the pocket to give him the chance to make plays downfield. He can’t sit back in the pocket this week. He needs to stretch the defense with his running ability.

The Hokies need to control the line of scrimmage. They need to get after Haynes King when Georgia Tech has the ball, and they need to give Kyron Drones time to the throw when the Hokies are on offense. The Hokies did a good job of that against NC State and took a step back last week. They need to get back to owning the line of scrimmage this week. Drones is at his best when he has time to throw.

If the Hokies want to have a chance this week, they need to stop explosive passing plays downfield. The Hokies could also use a big special teams play or turnover to flip the field. Ultimately, this looks a like tough game to me. The Hokies will do a good job of stopping Jamal Haynes but I think Haynes King will run wild on the ground. The Hokies will be able to score some points but unfortunately, I think they’ll be chasing the game most of the afternoon.

Prediction: Georgia Tech 35, Virginia Tech 21

📈 Betting Line & Market

  • Georgia Tech holds a 79.8 % win projection via ESPN’s FPI model.
  • However, SP+ (Connelly) projects a more lopsided margin in Georgia Tech’s favor: Virginia Tech is given just a 15% chance to win, with a model margin ~16.3 points in favor of Georgia Tech.
  • For totals, SP+ sets the over/under at 55.5, and its pick leans under.

    Summary of implied lines (based on models & past trends):
  • Spread / margin pick: Georgia Tech by ~14–17 points
  • Total (over/under): ~55.5, lean Under