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November 11, 2026November 11, 2026

Virginia Tech vs. Stanford Preview and Prediction

Saturday, November 14, 2026
7:30 PM ET · ACC Network
Lane Stadium · Blacksburg, VA

Well, that was ugly.

Virginia Tech went into Dallas with an opportunity to make a statement against a ranked SMU team. Instead, the Hokies got punched in the mouth and never really recovered. The Mustangs scored on their first eight possessions, piled up 51 points, and exposed just about every weakness Virginia Tech has on defense.

The good news? Stanford is coming to Blacksburg.

The Cardinal are 4-5, haven’t won a road game since September 2024, and have been absolutely dreadful away from Palo Alto this season. Stanford has scored just 41 combined points in four road games while allowing more than 50 points per game.

That’s about as favorable a matchup as Virginia Tech could ask for following the SMU disaster.

The Hokies are already bowl eligible at 6-3, but there’s still plenty to play for. James Franklin has an opportunity to deliver Virginia Tech its seventh regular-season win for the first time since 2019. With Miami looming next week, the Hokies need to take care of business against a team they should beat comfortably.

The question isn’t necessarily whether Virginia Tech can beat Stanford. It’s whether the Hokies can put together a complete performance and show that the SMU game was an aberration rather than a warning sign.

At a Glance

	Stanford	Virginia Tech
Overall record	4-5	6-3
ACC record	2-4	3-3
Points per game	20.3	34.2
Points allowed	37.3	23.9
Total offense	358.7	423.3
Total defense allowed	454.4	340.0
Passing offense	249.9	285.1
Rushing offense	108.8	138.2

Yards per game unless otherwise indicated. Season statistics through November 10, 2026.

Virginia Tech Offense vs. Stanford Defense

If there was ever a game for the Virginia Tech offense to put up some ridiculous numbers, this is it.

Stanford’s defense is one of the worst in college football. The Cardinal are allowing 454.4 yards and 37.3 points per game. They’re particularly bad against the run, surrendering nearly 200 rushing yards per contest.

That’s a pretty inviting matchup for Jeffrey Overton Jr. and Marcellous Hawkins Jr.

Overton was one of the few bright spots against SMU, rushing for 123 yards and two touchdowns on just 13 carries. He’s now averaging six yards per carry on the season and has established himself as a legitimate big-play threat.

Stanford has recently allowed 361 rushing yards against Notre Dame and 296 against Louisville. There’s absolutely no reason Virginia Tech shouldn’t be able to run the football against this defense.

And if Stanford decides to load the box?

Ethan Grunkemeyer should have opportunities to pick apart a secondary that’s allowing nearly 255 passing yards per game.

Grunkemeyer has quietly put together an impressive season, completing 71.7% of his passes for 2,431 yards, 18 touchdowns, and just three interceptions. Those are excellent numbers for a quarterback operating behind an offensive line that has struggled in pass protection.

That’s the one thing that concerns me.

Virginia Tech has allowed at least three sacks in four consecutive games, including four against SMU. Stanford isn’t particularly good at generating pressure, so this should be an opportunity to clean things up.

The Hokies shouldn’t need Grunkemeyer to throw the ball 40 times to win this game. Establish the run, create favorable down-and-distance situations, and take advantage of a Stanford defense that struggles to stop just about everything.

Advantage: Virginia Tech (Significant)

Virginia Tech Defense vs. Stanford Offense

I’m not sure what to make of Virginia Tech’s defense anymore.

Coming into the SMU game, there were reasons to believe the Hokies had made meaningful progress defensively. They had put together some respectable performances, including the 20-16 win at Clemson.

Then Kevin Jennings and the Mustangs happened.

SMU moved the ball at will. Virginia Tech couldn’t generate consistent stops, couldn’t prevent explosive plays, and couldn’t get off the field. It was the kind of defensive performance that makes you question whether the improvement we’ve seen over the previous few weeks was real.

Fortunately, Stanford isn’t SMU.

The Cardinal average just 20.3 points per game and have been especially ineffective on the road.

Stanford’s 2026 road results

at Duke	L, 7-35
at Wake Forest	L, 3-57
at Notre Dame	L, 7-58
at Louisville	L, 24-52

Stanford is 0-4 on the road in 2026.

That’s not a typo. Stanford scored three points against Wake Forest and seven against Notre Dame.

Quarterback Davis Warren has thrown for 2,203 yards with 14 touchdowns and three interceptions. He’s capable of moving the football, but his production has dropped significantly away from home.

Running back Micah Ford is Stanford’s primary threat on the ground, with 751 rushing yards and eight touchdowns. However, the Cardinal rank near the bottom of the country in rushing offense, averaging just 108.8 yards per game.

Virginia Tech’s defensive line should have the advantage here.

Aycen Stevens has recorded 8.5 sacks this season, and the Hokies are allowing just 107.3 rushing yards per game. If Virginia Tech can make Stanford one-dimensional, the Cardinal are going to have a difficult time sustaining drives.

The concern is Virginia Tech’s pass defense, which ranks 100th nationally in yards allowed. Even against an inconsistent offense, the Hokies can’t afford another performance filled with missed assignments and explosive plays.

This is a get-right opportunity for the defense. Anything less than a convincing performance should raise some serious concerns heading into Miami.

Advantage: Virginia Tech

Special Teams

Special teams shouldn’t be the deciding factor in this game, but Virginia Tech needs to avoid giving Stanford any opportunities to steal points or field position.

The Cardinal have struggled enough offensively that short fields could be their best chance to keep things competitive.

Virginia Tech needs to play clean football, avoid turnovers, and force Stanford to drive the length of the field.

Advantage: Virginia Tech

Three Keys to the Game

1. Run the Damn Football

Stanford is allowing nearly 200 rushing yards per game. Jeffrey Overton Jr. is coming off a 123-yard performance against SMU.

This shouldn’t be complicated.

Virginia Tech needs to establish the run early and keep feeding Overton and Hawkins. There’s no reason for the Hokies to get into a pass-heavy game plan against one of the worst rushing defenses in the country.

If Virginia Tech can’t run the football against Stanford, we’ve got bigger problems.

2. Don’t Let Stanford Hang Around

The biggest threat to Virginia Tech this weekend might be Virginia Tech.

Stanford has been terrible on the road, but the Hokies have demonstrated that they’re capable of making games more difficult than they need to be.

A couple of turnovers, some defensive breakdowns, and a few stalled drives could give Stanford some confidence.

The Hokies need to jump on the Cardinal early and make this game uncomfortable.

Stanford is traveling across the country to play in what could be freezing temperatures at Lane Stadium. The last thing Virginia Tech wants is to give the Cardinal a reason to believe they can win.

3. Get the Defense Back on Track

I don’t expect Stanford to replicate what SMU did to Virginia Tech last week.

But that’s not really the point.

The Hokies need to demonstrate that they can communicate effectively, tackle consistently, and prevent explosive plays.

Stanford’s offense has struggled against quality competition, so this isn’t necessarily going to tell us whether Virginia Tech can stop Miami next weekend.

It will, however, tell us whether the coaching staff has addressed some of the glaring problems that showed up in Dallas.

The Betting Line

Spread VT -15.5

Over/Under 59.5

VT Moneyline -700

Virginia Tech being favored by more than two touchdowns makes sense.

Stanford has lost its four road games by an average of 40 points. The Cardinal haven’t been remotely competitive away from home, and they’re now traveling across three time zones to face a Virginia Tech team coming off an embarrassing loss.

That’s a pretty brutal combination.

The interesting question is whether Virginia Tech can cover the 15.5-point spread.

The Hokies have scored an average of 46 points per game at home this season, while Stanford is allowing 50.5 points per game on the road.

On paper, this looks like a blowout.

However, Virginia Tech’s defense is coming off its worst performance of the season, and there’s always the possibility that the Hokies come out flat after the SMU loss.

I still lean toward Virginia Tech covering. The matchup between the Hokies’ rushing attack and Stanford’s defense is simply too favorable to ignore.

The total is a little more interesting. Virginia Tech should score plenty of points, but Stanford’s road offensive struggles make me hesitant to expect a shootout.

Best lean: Virginia Tech -15.5

Prediction

I don’t think Stanford is a particularly good football team, and I certainly don’t think the Cardinal are built to win in Blacksburg in mid-November.

Stanford hasn’t won a road game in more than two years. Its defense is one of the worst in the country, and its offense has struggled to score against quality opponents.

Virginia Tech has some legitimate problems, particularly on defense, but this is a matchup the Hokies should dominate.

I expect Overton to have another big day on the ground, Grunkemeyer to take advantage of a vulnerable Stanford secondary, and the Virginia Tech defense to look significantly better than it did against SMU.

The Hokies should be able to build an early lead, control the game on the ground, and pull away in the second half.

Will that mean Virginia Tech is ready to compete with Miami next weekend? Probably not.

But after what happened in Dallas, I’ll gladly take a comfortable win and move on.

FINAL SCORE PREDICTION

Virginia Tech 41, Stanford 17

Virginia Tech wins and covers. Under 59.5.

Virginia Tech improves to 7-3, and the Hokies get one more Saturday night in Lane Stadium to enjoy before turning their attention to Miami.

November 3, 2026

Virginia Tech vs. SMU Preview: Friday Night Lights in Dallas

The Big Picture

What a difference two weeks can make.

The last time we saw Virginia Tech, the Hokies were celebrating a 20-16 victory over Clemson in Death Valley. It wasn’t always pretty, the offense struggled to establish a running game, and there were plenty of moments where it looked like another frustrating close loss was coming. But when it mattered most, James Franklin’s team found a way to win. That’s something we haven’t been able to say nearly enough about Virginia Tech football over the last decade.

Now the Hokies are 6-2, bowl eligible before November, and still playing meaningful football in the ACC race. Considering where this program has been, that’s a pretty good place to be eight games into the Franklin era. But nobody should be satisfied yet.

Virginia Tech heads to Dallas on Friday night for what might be its toughest remaining road test. SMU is also 6-2, has one of the most explosive offenses in the ACC, and is looking to rebound from a disappointing 30-27 loss at Syracuse.

The Mustangs are nearly a touchdown favorite, and for good reason. They’re extremely dangerous offensively, they’ve been excellent at home, and they present some serious matchup problems for Virginia Tech’s secondary.

But the Hokies have a few things working in their favor, too. They’re coming off a bye week, they’re getting healthier along the offensive line, and their defense has developed into one of the most disruptive units in the conference. There’s also the matter of momentum. Virginia Tech has won two straight, including arguably its biggest road victory in years. SMU just watched Syracuse score the winning touchdown with 17 seconds remaining.

Both teams are still alive in the ACC race, but a third conference loss would make the road to Charlotte significantly more difficult. Friday night is an opportunity for Virginia Tech to prove that the Clemson victory wasn’t just a great moment. It was a sign of things to come.

A Look at SMU

Rhett Lashlee has done a tremendous job turning SMU into a legitimate ACC contender.

When the Mustangs joined the conference in 2024, plenty of people questioned whether a former American Athletic Conference program could immediately compete with the league’s established powers.

Those questions disappeared pretty quickly. SMU reached the College Football Playoff in its first ACC season, and Lashlee has continued building a program capable of competing near the top of the conference.

This year’s team enters Friday at 6-2 overall and 4-2 in ACC play. The Mustangs had won four consecutive games before their loss to Syracuse, including an impressive 59-20 demolition of California. Yes, the same California team that beat Virginia Tech 25-20. College football’s transitive property is undefeated until it isn’t.

The Mustangs have a dynamic offense led by quarterback Kevin Jennings, an experienced offensive line, and enough skill-position talent to create problems for just about anybody. Defensively, they’re solid across the board and particularly effective at getting opponents off the field on third down. However, SMU isn’t without weaknesses. The Mustangs have struggled with turnovers, penalties, and finishing defensive possessions in the red zone.

Those weaknesses give Virginia Tech a legitimate opportunity to pull off the upset.

By the Numbers

Season averages through games played October 31, 2026.

Statistic	Virginia Tech	SMU
Points per game	35.0	35.3
Total offense	424.1	467.3
Passing offense	284.4	320.4
Rushing offense	139.8	146.9
Points allowed	20.5	22.3
Total defense	311.4	307.6
Passing yards allowed	218.0	181.8
Rushing yards allowed	93.4	125.9

The numbers suggest two pretty evenly matched teams.

SMU has the advantage offensively, particularly through the air, while Virginia Tech has been slightly better at keeping opponents off the scoreboard and significantly better against the run.

The biggest statistical mismatch is SMU’s passing attack against Virginia Tech’s pass defense. The biggest opportunity for the Hokies is their defensive front against an SMU offense that can become vulnerable when forced into obvious passing situations. That battle could decide the game.

When Virginia Tech Has the Ball

The good news for Virginia Tech is that Ethan Grunkemeyer has been significantly better than most people probably expected entering the season. Through eight games, the Penn State transfer has completed 71.4% of his passes for 2,140 yards, 17 touchdowns, and just two interceptions. He’s also added five rushing touchdowns. Those are impressive numbers for a quarterback in his first season running a new offense.

Grunkemeyer hasn’t been perfect, but he’s been efficient, he’s protected the football, and he’s shown an ability to deliver in important situations. Against Clemson, he wasn’t particularly spectacular statistically, throwing for just 156 yards. But he made the throws he needed to make, including the fourth-down touchdown to Luke Reynolds that ultimately won the game.

That’s the kind of quarterback play Virginia Tech has been missing. The problem is that the Hokies haven’t been able to consistently complement their passing game with an effective rushing attack. Jeffrey Overton Jr. has rushed for 639 yards this season, but Virginia Tech is averaging just 139.8 rushing yards per game, ranking 95th nationally. Against Clemson, Overton managed only 26 yards on 10 carries. That’s not going to get it done against SMU.

The Mustangs have one of the better third-down defenses in the country, allowing opponents to convert just 27% of the time. They also have 22 sacks and an experienced defensive front that can create problems with pressure packages and disguised blitzes.

Fortunately, Virginia Tech should be getting some help. James Franklin indicated Monday that offensive linemen Montavious Cunningham and Brody Meadows are expected back following the bye week. Justin Terry, however, remains unavailable. Those returns couldn’t come at a better time.

If Virginia Tech can establish even a moderately effective rushing attack, it should open opportunities for Grunkemeyer and his receivers. Que’Sean Brown leads the team with 685 receiving yards, while tight end Luke Reynolds has become one of the most dependable targets in the ACC, recording 50 catches for 493 yards and six touchdowns. Both will need to have productive nights.

SMU is allowing just 181.8 passing yards per game, so this won’t be an easy matchup. But the Mustangs have also allowed opponents to score on 90% of their red-zone trips. Virginia Tech needs to take advantage of those opportunities. Field goals aren’t going to beat SMU.

When SMU Has the Ball

This is where things get interesting. Kevin Jennings might be the best quarterback Virginia Tech has faced this season.

The fifth-year SMU quarterback has thrown for more than 2,400 yards and 21 touchdowns while completing nearly 74% of his passes. He’s mobile, experienced, accurate, and capable of turning broken plays into explosive gains. In other words, he’s exactly the kind of quarterback who can give Virginia Tech’s defense problems.

Jennings is coming off a 351-yard performance against Syracuse in which he completed 29 of 36 passes. Despite those numbers, SMU still lost 30-27. That’s encouraging for Virginia Tech. The Mustangs also have a talented running back in Kendrick Raphael, who has rushed for 697 yards and nine touchdowns, while receivers Yamir Knight and Yannick Smith provide dangerous options downfield.

SMU averages 467.3 yards and 35.3 points per game.

This offense is legitimate. But so is Virginia Tech’s defensive front. The Hokies lead the ACC with 27 sacks and 11 forced fumbles. They’re allowing just 93.4 rushing yards per game, good for 12th nationally. That’s a pretty impressive turnaround for a unit that struggled with consistency earlier in the season.

Kemari Copeland, Mylachi Williams, and Aycen Stevens have helped establish a physical identity up front, while Jaquez White has emerged as a difference-maker in the secondary. White was outstanding against Clemson, finishing with 11 tackles and a critical late sack.

The challenge this week will be substantially different. Clemson struggled to consistently threaten Virginia Tech through the air. SMU won’t have that problem. The Mustangs average more than 320 passing yards per game, and Virginia Tech’s secondary has been vulnerable to explosive plays.

The Hokies can’t expect to sit back in coverage and hope Jennings makes mistakes. They need to pressure him. Syracuse sacked Jennings four times last weekend after SMU had surrendered only eight sacks through its first seven games. If Virginia Tech can create similar pressure, the Hokies have a chance to disrupt the Mustangs’ offensive rhythm.

If Jennings has time to sit in the pocket, it could be a long night.

Three Keys to the Game

1. Get Pressure on Kevin Jennings

This is the most important matchup of the night. Virginia Tech’s defensive line has been one of the team’s biggest strengths, and the Hokies need another big performance. Jennings is too talented to allow him to operate comfortably.

The good news is that Virginia Tech doesn’t necessarily need to blitz to generate pressure. The Hokies have enough talent along the defensive front to create disruption with four rushers. That will be important because sending additional defenders after Jennings could leave an already vulnerable secondary exposed.

The goal should be to force Jennings into quick decisions, limit explosive plays, and make SMU put together long, sustained drives. SMU has also struggled with turnovers this season, entering the game with a minus-five turnover margin. Virginia Tech needs to capitalize on that weakness.

2. Establish Something Resembling a Running Game

I’m not asking Virginia Tech to suddenly become the 1999 Hokies. But 26 rushing yards from your starting running back isn’t going to cut it. The Hokies need to find a way to create manageable second- and third-down situations. SMU’s defense is too good on third down to consistently put Grunkemeyer in obvious passing situations.

The returns of Cunningham and Meadows should help, but Virginia Tech still needs better execution up front. A productive running game would also help keep Jennings and the SMU offense on the sideline. Virginia Tech averages more than 32 minutes of possession per game, compared to SMU’s 29:24.

That’s an advantage worth maintaining.

3. Win the Turnover Battle

This might be the simplest key of them all. SMU has been careless with the football at times this season, while Virginia Tech has generally done a good job protecting it offensively.

Grunkemeyer has thrown just two interceptions in eight games.

Jennings has thrown five.

The Hokies have also forced 11 fumbles, although forcing fumbles and recovering them are two very different things. Virginia Tech needs to turn its defensive disruption into actual takeaways. In a game where both offenses are capable of scoring 30-plus points, one additional possession could be the difference between winning and losing.

Players to Watch

Ethan Grunkemeyer — Virginia Tech QB

The Hokies don’t need Grunkemeyer to throw for 400 yards. They need him to continue making smart decisions, protecting the football, and delivering in critical situations. His ability to handle SMU’s pressure packages will be a major factor.

Kevin Jennings — SMU QB

Jennings is the engine that makes the Mustangs go. He’s accurate, mobile, and dangerous downfield. Virginia Tech’s defense needs to make him uncomfortable early and often.

Luke Reynolds — Virginia Tech TE

Reynolds has become Grunkemeyer’s security blanket, especially in critical situations. His size and physicality should create opportunities against SMU’s defense, particularly in the red zone.

Kendrick Raphael — SMU RB

Raphael has been extremely productive this season, averaging more than five yards per carry. Virginia Tech needs to keep him contained and force SMU to become one-dimensional.

Betting Preview

The oddsmakers have SMU favored by 6.5 points, with an over/under of 55.5.

That seems reasonable.

SMU is undefeated at home this season, while Virginia Tech is coming off its biggest victory of the year and has had nearly two weeks to prepare.

The Mustangs have the more explosive offense, but Virginia Tech has the defensive front capable of making things difficult.

A few betting trends stand out.

Virginia Tech is 5-3 against the spread this season, while SMU is 3-4-1 according to the Associated Press. The Hokies also haven’t lost a game by more than five points.

Meanwhile, SMU’s turnover problems and tendency to commit penalties make the Mustangs difficult to trust as nearly a touchdown favorite.

There’s also a pretty significant rest advantage for Virginia Tech.

The Hokies haven’t played since October 24, while SMU played Syracuse on October 31.

I think that matters, particularly given Virginia Tech’s offensive line injuries.

My betting lean: Virginia Tech +6.5.

I wouldn’t be surprised if SMU wins this game, but I have a hard time believing there’s a full touchdown separating these teams.

As for the total, both offenses average approximately 35 points per game, but both defenses have also been fairly effective.

Virginia Tech’s ability to control possession could keep the scoring lower than expected.

My total lean: Under 55.5.

Neither is a particularly strong play, but I’d be more comfortable taking the points than laying them.

Prediction

This is a fascinating matchup.

Virginia Tech has a chance to take another major step forward in James Franklin’s first season, but the Hokies are going to have to play one of their best games of the year to leave Dallas with a victory.

SMU is extremely dangerous offensively, and Kevin Jennings presents a legitimate challenge for Virginia Tech’s secondary. I expect the Mustangs to have success moving the football, particularly through the air.

But I also think Virginia Tech’s defensive front is capable of creating enough negative plays to keep SMU from completely taking over the game.

Offensively, the Hokies should benefit from the return of two offensive linemen and an extra week of preparation. Grunkemeyer has been remarkably efficient this season, and I trust him to keep Virginia Tech competitive. The question is whether the Hokies can finish drives with touchdowns instead of field goals.

I think this game looks a lot like the Pittsburgh and California losses, with both teams trading punches and the outcome coming down to a handful of critical plays in the fourth quarter. The difference is that Virginia Tech has started finding ways to win those games. We saw it against Clemson. Let’s see if we see it again Friday night.

Prediction: SMU 30, Virginia Tech 27

Final Thoughts

There are still plenty of questions about Virginia Tech. The offensive line remains a work in progress. The running game has been inconsistent. The secondary has struggled with explosive passing plays. And the Hokies still haven’t put together four quarters of consistently good football against a quality opponent. But there’s also no denying the progress this program has made.

Virginia Tech is 6-2, has won two consecutive games, and is coming off its first victory at Clemson since 2007. The Hokies are playing meaningful football in November, and that’s something worth appreciating. A win over SMU would take things to another level.

It would give Virginia Tech seven victories with three regular-season games remaining, another quality road win, and a legitimate argument that the Hokies belong among the better teams in the ACC. More importantly, it would demonstrate that the Clemson victory wasn’t an isolated result. This team is learning how to win. Now it’s time to prove it again. Let’s go get another one. Go Hokies.

October 30, 2026

Bye Week Thoughts: Virginia Tech Is Ahead of Schedule, But How Good Are the Hokies?

Eight games into the James Franklin era, Virginia Tech is 6-2, bowl eligible, and coming off consecutive victories over Georgia Tech and Clemson. I’ll take it.

If you had told me before the season that Virginia Tech would enter its bye week with six wins, including a road victory at Clemson, I would have been pretty happy. Especially considering where this program was just a year ago.

But here’s the frustrating part. Virginia Tech is probably three or four plays away from being undefeated.

The Hokies lost to Pittsburgh 35-33 and California 25-20 in games they had opportunities to win. A couple of made field goals, a defensive stop, or better execution in the fourth quarter, and we’re potentially talking about an 8-0 football team.

Instead, we’re talking about a 6-2 team that has already exceeded many reasonable expectations but still hasn’t quite figured out how to consistently get out of its own way.

And that’s what makes the final four games so interesting. Virginia Tech has already accomplished the minimum expectation for Franklin’s first season. The Hokies are going bowling. They’ve demonstrated they can win on the road. They’ve beaten two recognizable ACC opponents in consecutive weeks.

Now the question becomes whether this team is simply better than what we’ve watched over the past several years or whether it’s actually capable of competing with the best teams in the conference. Those are two very different things.

1. James Franklin Has Already Changed the Expectations

Let’s start with the obvious. Virginia Tech looks like a competently coached football team again. That shouldn’t be a particularly high bar for a program with Virginia Tech’s resources and history, but here we are.

Franklin inherited a program that had spent the better part of a decade searching for an identity. Justin Fuente couldn’t sustain the early momentum. Brent Pry couldn’t turn recruiting optimism into consistent victories.

And now Franklin has Virginia Tech sitting at 6-2 with four games remaining. The most encouraging development isn’t necessarily the record. It’s that Virginia Tech has generally looked like the more prepared team when it takes the field.

There are actual offensive concepts. There’s a recognizable identity. The Hokies have enough talent to exploit opponents’ weaknesses instead of simply hoping the other team makes more mistakes. That’s progress.

But I’m not ready to declare the rebuild complete. Franklin’s teams have struggled coming out of halftime, and the two losses exposed some pretty significant problems with game management and execution.

The standard at Virginia Tech shouldn’t be simply reaching a bowl game. It should be competing for ACC championships.

Franklin wasn’t hired to turn a four-win team into a perennial seven-win team. He was hired to make Virginia Tech nationally relevant again. Six wins in eight games is an excellent start. It’s not the destination.

2. The Offense Is Better Than I Expected

One of my biggest concerns entering the season was how quickly Virginia Tech could develop an offensive identity with so many new pieces.

Eight games later, I’m pretty encouraged. Ethan Grunkemeyer has provided stability at quarterback, and the combination of his passing ability and the Hokies’ rushing attack has made this offense considerably more difficult to defend.

I also think Jeffrey Overton has been one of the more important pieces of the offensive turnaround. When Virginia Tech can establish the run, the entire offense opens up. Grunkemeyer doesn’t have to carry the team on every possession, the offensive line can play more aggressively, and opposing defenses have to respect multiple ways of moving the football.

The offense isn’t perfect. There are still stretches when the play-calling becomes predictable. The California game was particularly frustrating because Virginia Tech never seemed to establish a consistent rhythm.

And the Hokies have a tendency to make things unnecessarily difficult in the red zone. But compare this offense to what we’ve watched in Blacksburg over the past several seasons. It’s not particularly close.

The biggest question moving forward is whether the offense can maintain that production against better competition.

SMU and Miami are going to provide significantly more difficult tests than some of the teams Virginia Tech has already faced.

If the Hokies want to win either of those games, Grunkemeyer and the offense are going to have to play well for four quarters. Not two. Not three.

Four.

3. The Defense Still Makes Me Nervous

Virginia Tech’s defense has been one of the more frustrating parts of this season. There are stretches when the Hokies look perfectly capable of shutting down an opponent.

Then there are stretches when opposing quarterbacks seemingly complete every pass they attempt.

The secondary has been a particular concern. Pittsburgh scored 35 points. California scored 25. Even in victories, Virginia Tech has occasionally struggled to prevent explosive passing plays.

The Clemson game was encouraging because the Hokies held the Tigers to 16 points on the road. But let’s not pretend Clemson’s offense is particularly good this season.

The Tigers have struggled to move the football consistently, especially through the air. Holding them to 16 points is a positive development, but it’s not necessarily proof that Virginia Tech has solved its defensive problems.

SMU and Miami will be much better measuring sticks. The biggest issue for me remains situational defense.

Can Virginia Tech get off the field on third down? Can it prevent explosive plays? Can it protect a lead in the fourth quarter?

Those are the situations that separate good defenses from average ones.

Virginia Tech doesn’t need to have the best defense in the ACC to win nine games. But it can’t continue giving opposing offenses opportunities to extend drives because of missed assignments, penalties, or poor tackling. The Clemson victory was a step in the right direction.

4. Special Teams Have Been Anything But Special

I never thought I’d be writing about Virginia Tech’s special teams being one of the team’s biggest weaknesses.

But here we are.

John Love’s struggles have been particularly frustrating. The Hokies have missed opportunities to put points on the board, and those misses played a significant role in the losses to Pittsburgh and California. To Love’s credit, he responded with a couple of important field goals against GT and Clemson. Hopefully that’s the beginning of a turnaround.

Que’Sean Brown has provided some excitement in the return game, and I still think he’s capable of breaking a punt return for a touchdown before the season ends. But the overall special teams performance hasn’t been good enough.

Punting has been inconsistent. Field position has occasionally been a problem. And the kicking game has already cost Virginia Tech opportunities to win close games.

For a program built around the legacy of Beamerball, that’s pretty disappointing. Franklin doesn’t need to recreate Frank Beamer’s special teams philosophy overnight. But Virginia Tech shouldn’t be losing games because it can’t consistently execute basic special teams responsibilities.

That’s something that needs to improve over the bye week.

5. The Clemson Win Was Important, Even If Clemson Isn’t Clemson Anymore

I don’t particularly care that Clemson is having a down year. Winning in Death Valley is still a big deal.

Virginia Tech hadn’t played at Clemson since 2012, and the Hokies entered one of college football’s more intimidating environments and walked away with a 20-16 victory. That’s something worth celebrating.

For years, Virginia Tech has struggled to win games against recognizable conference opponents, particularly on the road. The Clemson victory was another sign that Franklin is changing that.

But context matters.

This isn’t the Clemson program that was routinely competing for national championships under Dabo Swinney. The Tigers have significant offensive limitations, and Virginia Tech still needed to grind out a four-point victory. I’m encouraged that the Hokies found a way to finish the game. I’m less encouraged that they couldn’t put away an opponent that was struggling to move the football.

Both things can be true. Virginia Tech deserves credit for winning. And Virginia Tech still has plenty of work to do.

6. The ACC Is Still There for the Taking — Sort Of

Miami looks like the class of the conference. The Hurricanes are 7-0, ranked No. 1 nationally, and have been dismantling opponents.

Wake Forest has also emerged as a legitimate contender, while SMU remains one of the stronger teams in the conference.

Virginia Tech, meanwhile, is sitting at 3-2 in ACC play. The losses to Pittsburgh and California are particularly damaging because both teams own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Hokies.

That makes Virginia Tech’s path to Charlotte considerably more complicated. But the schedule also provides an opportunity. Virginia Tech still plays SMU and Miami. Win those games, and suddenly the conference standings become a lot more interesting. Of course, that’s considerably easier said than done.

I don’t think Virginia Tech is an ACC championship-caliber team right now. But I also don’t think the Hokies are as far away as I expected them to be in October. That’s encouraging.

And for the first time in a while, it’s nice to enter November with something more meaningful to discuss than which bowl game Virginia Tech might qualify for.

7. The Remaining Schedule Is Tough

VIRGINIA TECH REMAINING 2026 SCHEDULE

My Outlook

Nov. 6	at SMU	Toss-up / Lean Loss
Nov. 14	Stanford	Win
Nov. 21	at Miami	Loss
Nov. 28	Virginia	Win

The Hokies have two difficult road games, one very winnable home game, and a rivalry game that should never be taken for granted.

At SMU

This might be the most important game remaining on the schedule. The Mustangs have established themselves as one of the ACC’s better programs, and winning in Dallas on a Friday night won’t be easy. But I think this is a winnable game.

Virginia Tech has demonstrated enough offensive ability to compete, and the Clemson victory should provide some confidence heading into another difficult road environment. The question is whether the defense can hold up.

Stanford

Virginia Tech should win this game.Stanford has struggled this season, and the Hokies will be back in Lane Stadium. There really isn’t a good excuse for losing this one.

At Miami

Let’s be realistic. Miami is one of the best teams in college football. The Hurricanes have significantly more talent across the roster, an explosive offense, and legitimate national championship aspirations. Virginia Tech will need to play its best game of the season just to have a chance. I’m not predicting a win. But I am interested in seeing how competitive the Hokies can be.

Virginia

Beat UVA. Franklin needs to establish early that losing to Virginia isn’t something Virginia Tech is going to accept.

8. What Would Make This Season a Success?

Before the season, I predicted Virginia Tech would finish 8-4. That felt slightly optimistic considering the amount of turnover and the difficulty of the schedule. Eight games later, I still think 8-4 is the most likely outcome. But my expectations have changed.

How I’d grade the possible finishes

6-6

Disappointing. Losing four straight would erase much of the momentum.

7-5

Acceptable on paper, but a frustrating finish.

8-4

A successful first season and meaningful progress.

9-3

An excellent first season, ahead of schedule.

10-2

One of the most impressive turnarounds in college football.

Here’s where things get interesting.

If Virginia Tech beats Stanford and Virginia, the Hokies finish 8-4. That’s a successful season. But after watching this team through eight games, I think nine wins are a realistic possibility. Beat SMU, take care of Stanford, and beat Virginia.

That’s 9-3.

And a nine-win regular season in Franklin’s first year would be an outstanding accomplishment. It would also provide Virginia Tech with something it has desperately needed for years.

Momentum.

Not hypothetical momentum based on recruiting rankings or offseason optimism. Actual momentum based on winning football games.

9. The Bye Week Couldn’t Have Come at a Better Time

Virginia Tech has played eight consecutive games.The Hokies have experienced a four-game winning streak, two frustrating losses, and two important bounce-back victories.

That’s a lot of football.

The bye week gives Franklin and his staff an opportunity to address some of the problems that have persisted throughout the season.

The biggest priorities should be pretty obvious.

Fix the third quarter. Virginia Tech has repeatedly struggled coming out of halftime. Whatever adjustments the coaching staff is making aren’t consistently working.
Improve the secondary. SMU and Miami will expose the same weaknesses Pittsburgh and California exploited if the Hokies don’t make changes.
Get the kicking game right. Close games are going to come down to field goals. Virginia Tech needs to trust its kicker.
Eliminate unnecessary penalties. The Hokies have improved in this area, but there are still too many avoidable mistakes.
Get healthy. The final month includes two difficult road trips. Virginia Tech needs its best players available.

There’s also something to be said for simply giving the players an opportunity to recover mentally. The Clemson victory was emotional. The Georgia Tech game was important. The losses to Pittsburgh and California were frustrating.

Now the Hokies get an opportunity to reset before the final month of the regular season.

They need to take advantage of it.

10. Sticking With My Prediction: 8-4

I’m sticking with my preseason predictions:

at SMU	Loss
Stanford	Win
at Miami	Loss
Virginia	Win

Final Regular Season Record: 8-4

Final Thoughts

Virginia Tech is in a much better position than it was a year ago. That much is undeniable. The Hokies have a legitimate head coach, an offense capable of putting points on the board, and a roster that has already demonstrated it can win difficult road games.

But there’s still a gap between where Virginia Tech is and where it wants to be.

The defense needs to improve. Special teams need to become an advantage instead of a liability. And Franklin needs to figure out why his team continues to struggle coming out of halftime.

Those aren’t insignificant problems. They’re also problems that can be fixed. What I find most encouraging is that Virginia Tech is no longer relying entirely on hope.

We’ve actually seen this team play good football. We’ve watched the Hokies win games they might have lost in previous seasons. And we’ve watched them go into Clemson and leave with a victory.

That’s progress.

The next four games will tell us just how much progress Franklin has made. An 8-4 season would be a successful beginning. A 9-3 season would be an excellent one. Anything better, and we might need to start having some very different conversations about the future of Virginia Tech football.

For now, I’m enjoying the fact that Virginia Tech is bowl eligible before Halloween and still has meaningful football left to play. It’s been a while since that felt normal. Let’s go beat SMU.

Go Hokies.

October 21, 2026October 21, 2026

Virginia Tech vs. Clemson: Game Preview

Saturday, October 24, 2026 • 7:00 PM ET • Memorial Stadium, Clemson, SC • ESPN

Virginia Tech vs. Clemson

A week ago, Virginia Tech was staring at the possibility of a three-game losing streak and watching the optimism surrounding James Franklin’s first season disappear almost as quickly as it arrived.

Two heartbreaking losses to Pittsburgh and California had turned a promising 4-0 start into a frustrating 4-2 record. The Hokies weren’t necessarily playing terrible football. They were simply finding increasingly creative ways to lose games they should have won.

Then came Georgia Tech.

Virginia Tech responded with a much-needed 34-24 victory over the Yellow Jackets, snapping its two-game losing streak and improving to 5-2 overall. Was it perfect? No.

Did it solve every problem we’ve watched over the past month? Probably not.

But the Hokies needed a win, and they got one. Now comes Clemson.

For the first time since 2012, Virginia Tech travels to Death Valley to face a Clemson program that looks considerably different from the national championship contender we’ve grown accustomed to seeing over the past decade.

The Tigers enter Saturday’s matchup at 4-2 following a 37-0 victory over Charleston Southern. But that record is somewhat misleading.

Clemson’s four victories have come against Georgia Southern, North Carolina, California, and Charleston Southern. Its two losses came against LSU and Miami, with the Tigers getting outscored 92-23 in those games. That’s not exactly the résumé of a national championship contender.

In fact, Clemson’s offense has been one of the least productive units in the Power Four, averaging just 22.3 points per game.

Meanwhile, Virginia Tech enters Saturday averaging 37.1 points per game and 451.3 yards of total offense.

On paper, this looks like a matchup the Hokies can win. Of course, Virginia Tech fans have spent the better part of the last decade discovering that games aren’t played on paper.

And winning at Clemson has historically been considerably more difficult than identifying the Tigers’ weaknesses.

Saturday represents an opportunity for James Franklin to accomplish something Virginia Tech hasn’t done in a long time: walk into Death Valley and leave with a victory.

More importantly, it represents an opportunity to demonstrate that this program is actually moving forward. Because beating Georgia Tech at home was necessary. Beating Clemson on the road would be a statement.

Clemson Isn’t the Clemson We Remember

For most of the last decade, Clemson has represented the standard of excellence in the ACC. National championships. College Football Playoff appearances. NFL talent everywhere.

Playing Clemson generally meant facing a roster that was bigger, faster, and more talented than almost anyone else in the conference. That doesn’t appear to be the case in 2026.

The Tigers are averaging just 340.7 yards of total offense per game, ranking 110th nationally. Their passing offense has been particularly ineffective, averaging 187.5 yards per game and producing just two passing touchdowns through six games. Two.

For a program that once featured Deshaun Watson and Trevor Lawrence, that’s an astonishing number. Clemson has been slightly more productive running the football, averaging 153.2 yards per game, but that’s hardly the type of rushing attack that should terrify Virginia Tech’s defense.

The Tigers have also struggled against legitimate competition. LSU scored 51 points against Clemson in the season opener. Miami scored 41 points in Death Valley two weeks ago. Clemson managed just 10 and 13 points, respectively. Those are the two most talented opponents the Tigers have faced, and neither game was particularly competitive.

The challenge for Virginia Tech is determining whether Clemson’s offensive struggles are a legitimate reflection of the Tigers’ limitations or simply the result of facing two elite opponents. My suspicion is that it’s a little of both.

Clemson still has talented players. It’s still a difficult place to play. And the Tigers are certainly capable of putting together a productive offensive performance.

But this isn’t the Clemson offense that used to overwhelm ACC opponents with explosive plays and superior athletes. Virginia Tech shouldn’t enter Saturday intimidated by the logo on the helmet.

The Tigers haven’t earned that kind of respect with their performance this season.

Virginia Tech’s Offense Has a Significant Advantage

Here’s the most encouraging statistic entering Saturday. Virginia Tech averages 451.3 yards of total offense per game. Clemson allows 330.8. That’s a difference of more than 120 yards.

The Hokies also average 37.1 points per game, compared with Clemson’s 21.5 points allowed. Those numbers suggest Virginia Tech should have opportunities to move the football. And much of that responsibility will fall on Ethan Grunkemeyer.

Through six games, Grunkemeyer had completed 73.1% of his passes for 1,734 yards, 12 touchdowns, and just two interceptions. Those are impressive numbers for a quarterback operating behind an offensive line that has dealt with injuries and personnel changes.

Grunkemeyer hasn’t been perfect. He’s occasionally held the football too long, taken unnecessary sacks, and struggled when opposing defenses have generated consistent pressure.

But he’s also demonstrated the ability to distribute the football effectively and make throws that Virginia Tech quarterbacks have struggled to complete in recent seasons.

Clemson’s pass defense is respectable, allowing 189.3 yards per game, which ranks 39th nationally. That means Grunkemeyer probably won’t have the same opportunities he’s enjoyed against weaker secondaries.

Still, Virginia Tech has enough offensive weapons to create problems. Luke Reynolds, Que’Sean Brown, and Ayden Greene give the Hokies multiple options in the passing game. The key will be protecting Grunkemeyer long enough to find them.

Virginia Tech doesn’t need its quarterback to throw for 350 yards Saturday. It needs him to make smart decisions, avoid turnovers, and capitalize when Clemson gives him opportunities.

Against an offense as inconsistent as Clemson’s, protecting the football could be more important than generating explosive plays.

Feed Jeffrey Overton

If there’s one player who could determine whether Virginia Tech leaves Clemson with a victory, it’s Jeffrey Overton.

The Hokies have been at their best offensively when they’ve established the running game and allowed Grunkemeyer to operate without carrying the entire offense.

Overton’s 209-yard performance against Boston College demonstrated what happens when Virginia Tech commits to running the football.

And Clemson’s defense presents an interesting opportunity. The Tigers are allowing 141.5 rushing yards per game, ranking 70th nationally. That’s not terrible, but it’s hardly the type of dominant run defense we’ve come to expect from Clemson.

Virginia Tech needs to test that defense early. Establish Overton between the tackles. Force Clemson to commit additional defenders to stopping the run. Create manageable third downs.

The Hokies cannot afford to become one-dimensional against a defense that still possesses enough talent to generate pressure and disrupt passing lanes.

There’s also the issue of Virginia Tech’s offensive line. Injuries and personnel changes have forced the Hokies to experiment with different combinations, including moving Layth Ghannam to left tackle against California.

That’s not ideal entering a road game at Clemson. The easiest way to protect an offensive line dealing with injuries is to avoid obvious passing situations.

Run the football. Stay ahead of the chains. Keep Clemson’s defense guessing. And when the Tigers start creeping additional defenders toward the line of scrimmage, let Grunkemeyer take advantage.

This doesn’t need to be complicated. Virginia Tech has the offensive personnel to score points against Clemson.

The question is whether the Hokies can execute consistently enough to make that advantage matter.

Virginia Tech’s Defense Needs to Take Advantage

For all the criticism Virginia Tech’s defense has received this season, the Hokies have actually been reasonably effective statistically.

Virginia Tech is allowing 314.7 yards per game, ranking 32nd nationally.More importantly, the Hokies are allowing just 87.4 rushing yards per game, the 10th-best mark in college football.

That’s significant against a Clemson offense that has struggled to throw the football. If Virginia Tech can continue limiting opposing rushing attacks, Clemson could find itself in an uncomfortable position.

The Tigers haven’t demonstrated an ability to consistently generate explosive plays through the air. Forcing Clemson into obvious passing situations should favor Virginia Tech.

Of course, there’s one obvious concern. Virginia Tech’s secondary. The Hokies are allowing 227.3 passing yards per game, ranking 95th nationally.

We’ve already watched opposing quarterbacks take advantage of coverage breakdowns, missed assignments, and unnecessary penalties.

Pittsburgh scored 35 points. California scored 25, including a game-winning touchdown in the final seconds. The issue hasn’t necessarily been an inability to stop opponents for four quarters.

It’s been an inability to make critical stops when the game is on the line. That’s what needs to change.

Clemson’s passing offense has been ineffective enough that Virginia Tech shouldn’t need to consistently commit additional defenders to coverage.

The Hokies should be able to focus on stopping the run, forcing third-and-long situations, and making Clemson sustain drives.

And when opportunities arise, they need to get off the field. No unnecessary penalties. No blown coverages. No giving up 30 yards on third-and-12.

If Virginia Tech holds Clemson to its season scoring average, the Hokies should have an excellent opportunity to win.

But we’ve already learned that statistical advantages don’t mean much when a defense can’t execute in critical moments.

The Death Valley Factor

There’s one element of this matchup that doesn’t show up in the statistics.

Death Valley.

Virginia Tech hasn’t played at Clemson since 2012, when the Tigers defeated the Hokies 38-17. That’s 14 years since the Hokies last made the trip to Memorial Stadium.

For most of Virginia Tech’s roster, Saturday will be the first opportunity to experience one of college football’s more intimidating environments. And it’ll be at night.

That’s not exactly the easiest situation for a quarterback and offensive line still developing chemistry. Communication will be critical.

False starts, missed assignments, and wasted timeouts can quickly turn manageable drives into disasters. We’ve already watched Virginia Tech commit enough unnecessary penalties this season. The Hokies can’t afford to give Clemson additional advantages because they’re struggling to communicate before the snap.

There’s also the emotional component. Clemson has struggled this season, but a home victory over Virginia Tech would provide the Tigers with an opportunity to build momentum entering the final stretch.

Dabo Swinney’s team will undoubtedly view Saturday as an important conference matchup. Virginia Tech needs to match that intensity from the opening kickoff.

Because allowing Clemson to build an early lead and energize the crowd would make an already difficult road environment considerably worse.

The Hokies don’t necessarily need to score on their opening possession. But they need to demonstrate immediately that they aren’t intimidated by the environment. And if Virginia Tech can take an early lead, the pressure shifts squarely onto a Clemson offense that hasn’t demonstrated an ability to consistently play from behind.

Keys to the Game

There are five things I’m watching Saturday.

1. Establish Jeffrey Overton early. Clemson’s run defense has been average, and Virginia Tech needs to take advantage. Overton should be a central part of the offensive game plan, particularly in the first half.

2. Protect Ethan Grunkemeyer. Death Valley will be loud, and Virginia Tech’s offensive line has been dealing with injuries. The Hokies need to avoid obvious passing situations and prevent Clemson from generating momentum with sacks and negative plays.

3. Force Clemson to throw the football. The Tigers are averaging fewer than 190 passing yards per game and have just two passing touchdowns this season. Virginia Tech’s run defense should be capable of making Clemson uncomfortable offensively.

4. Win the turnover battle. Virginia Tech has already demonstrated how quickly mistakes can turn winnable games into losses. Giving Clemson short fields would be particularly damaging against an offense that has struggled to sustain drives.

5. Play four quarters. Virginia Tech’s losses to Pittsburgh and California weren’t the result of being completely outplayed. They were the result of failing to execute in critical moments. The Hokies need to demonstrate that they’ve learned from those mistakes.

Final Prediction

I have a difficult time figuring out exactly what to make of this Virginia Tech team.

At 5-2, the Hokies have already demonstrated significant improvement in James Franklin’s first season.

The offense is productive. Grunkemeyer has been impressive. Overton provides a legitimate rushing threat.

And the defense, despite its frustrating inconsistencies, has been better statistically than the results against Pittsburgh and California might suggest.

But there’s still something missing. Virginia Tech hasn’t consistently demonstrated an ability to put together a complete performance against quality competition.

The Hokies have played well enough to win more games than they have, but that’s not particularly comforting when you’re the team finding ways to lose.

Clemson presents an interesting opportunity. The Tigers are 4-2, but their offense has been genuinely bad against legitimate competition.

Virginia Tech has the better statistical offense, a more productive passing game, and a run defense that should make Clemson’s offensive approach difficult. Those advantages are significant. But this is still Clemson. And this is still Death Valley.

I expect Virginia Tech to have some early struggles offensively, particularly dealing with the crowd noise and Clemson’s defensive front. I also expect the Tigers to have difficulty consistently moving the football against Virginia Tech’s defense.

The difference should be Grunkemeyer and Overton. Virginia Tech has more ways to generate offense, and Clemson hasn’t demonstrated that it can consistently keep pace with productive opponents.

I think Overton has another strong performance, Grunkemeyer makes enough plays through the air, and Virginia Tech enters the fourth quarter with a narrow lead. We’ve already watched the Hokies blow late opportunities against Pittsburgh and California.

A close fourth quarter in Death Valley would be another significant test of this team’s maturity. But I think Virginia Tech is finally beginning to figure out how to finish games.

The Georgia Tech victory was an important first step. Saturday provides an opportunity to take another. Clemson isn’t the Clemson of five years ago. And Virginia Tech isn’t the Virginia Tech of the last five years.

At some point, the Hokies need to stop treating victories over traditional ACC powers as something extraordinary and start treating them as games they should expect to win. Saturday feels like a good opportunity to start.

It won’t be easy. It probably won’t be particularly pretty. And there’s a decent chance Virginia Tech fans spend the fourth quarter wondering why they continue subjecting themselves to this. But I like the Hokies. I had this as a loss in the preseason but I think Tech can pull off a big win on the road .

Prediction: Virginia Tech 27, Clemson 24

October 14, 2026

Virginia Tech vs. Georgia Tech: Game Preview

Saturday, October 17, 2026 • 3:30 PM ET • Lane Stadium, Blacksburg, VA • ACC Network

Georgia Tech vs. Virginia Tech

Two weeks ago, Virginia Tech was 4-0, riding the momentum of an undefeated September, and Hokie fans were beginning to entertain the possibility that James Franklin might have this program ahead of schedule.

Two weeks and two heartbreaking losses later, the Hokies are 4-2, sitting at 1-2 in ACC play, and desperately searching for answers.

The 35-33 loss to Pittsburgh was frustrating enough. Virginia Tech had opportunities to win that game and couldn’t finish. But last Saturday’s 25-20 loss at California was arguably worse. The Hokies traveled across the country, struggled to establish any consistency, and somehow managed to take the lead with just over a minute remaining before watching Cal march down the field for the game-winning touchdown.

For the second consecutive week, Virginia Tech found a way to lose a game it had every opportunity to win.

Now comes Georgia Tech.

The Yellow Jackets enter Saturday’s Homecoming matchup with a 2-3 record, but they’re coming off a dramatic 28-25 victory over Duke. Brent Key’s team has struggled through the first half of the season, but there’s enough talent on the roster to make the Hokies uncomfortable.

And if recent history has taught us anything, it’s that Virginia Tech doesn’t need much help making itself uncomfortable.

The good news? The Hokies return to Lane Stadium, where they’ll play in front of their fourth consecutive sellout crowd.

The bad news? Georgia Tech has won four of its last five trips to Blacksburg.

Saturday represents an opportunity to stop the bleeding, regain some confidence, and prevent a promising season from spiraling into another exercise in frustration.

Because with a trip to Clemson looming next weekend, a third consecutive loss would change the entire conversation surrounding James Franklin’s first season.

What Happened to the 4-0 Hokies?

The most frustrating part of Virginia Tech’s two-game losing streak isn’t necessarily that the Hokies have lost. It’s how they’ve lost.

Against Pittsburgh, the Hokies scored 33 points and still couldn’t escape with a victory. Against California, they held a 20-19 lead with 1:15 remaining before surrendering a touchdown with 18 seconds left.

That’s two conference losses by a combined seven points.

And while there’s a temptation to dismiss close losses as bad luck, Virginia Tech has repeatedly made the kinds of mistakes that turn potential victories into defeats.

Penalties. Missed kicks. Defensive breakdowns. Inability to execute in critical moments.

The encouraging part is that this team isn’t getting blown off the field. The concerning part is that it hasn’t demonstrated an ability to consistently close games against competent ACC competition.

The Offense: Grunkemeyer Continues to Produce

For all the frustration surrounding the past two weeks, Virginia Tech’s offense has been one of the more encouraging developments of the James Franklin era.

Quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer leads the ACC with 1,734 passing yards through six games and has thrown 12 touchdowns against just two interceptions.

The Hokies are averaging 37.7 points per game, the third-highest total in the conference.

Those numbers suggest an offense capable of competing with just about anyone on Virginia Tech’s schedule.

But the California game exposed an important distinction between accumulating statistics and consistently executing.

Virginia Tech scored just 20 points against the Golden Bears, and the offense struggled to maintain rhythm throughout the afternoon.

Grunkemeyer eventually delivered what should have been the decisive score, a one-yard touchdown run that gave the Hokies the lead late in the fourth quarter.

Unfortunately, the defense couldn’t finish the job.

Against Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech should have opportunities to move the football. The Yellow Jackets are allowing nearly 389 yards per game, placing them among the ACC’s weaker defenses.

The challenge will be converting those opportunities into touchdowns rather than settling for field-goal attempts.

Which brings us to…

The Special Teams: A Growing Concern

John Love entered the season as one of Virginia Tech’s most dependable players.

Now the kicking game has become a legitimate concern.

Love missed a potential game-winning field goal against Pittsburgh and followed that performance with two more misses against California.

That’s three consecutive missed field goals in two games decided by a combined seven points.

James Franklin has publicly supported Love while acknowledging that competition at the position remains open, with Will Love and Cole Byrd among the alternatives.

Punter Nathan Totten has also struggled, averaging approximately 41 yards per punt.

Virginia Tech simply cannot continue giving away points and field position in close games.

Special teams are supposed to be an advantage for a well-coached football team. Right now, they’re creating additional obstacles for a program that already has enough of them.

Meet the Yellow Jackets

Georgia Tech entered the season hoping to build on the success Brent Key established over the past several years.

Instead, the Yellow Jackets have spent much of the first half trying to figure out what kind of football team they actually are.

Losing Haynes King and Jamal Haynes was always going to create challenges. Georgia Tech also replaced both coordinators, bringing in George Godsey to run the offense and Jason Semore to coordinate the defense.

The result has been a 2-3 start and an inconsistent team that has struggled to replace the production and leadership of its departed stars.

But last weekend offered some encouragement.

After falling to 1-3, Georgia Tech responded by knocking off previously unbeaten Duke, 28-25. The Yellow Jackets scored the go-ahead touchdown with 54 seconds remaining and survived a missed Duke field goal in the closing seconds.

Sound familiar?

Apparently, Georgia Tech has figured out how to win the exact kind of football game Virginia Tech keeps losing.

Alberto Mendoza and the Georgia Tech Offense

The Yellow Jackets have turned to Alberto Mendoza at quarterback, and he’s coming off one of the most important performances of his young Georgia Tech career.

Mendoza helped engineer the late touchdown drive against Duke and demonstrated the kind of composure that could make Georgia Tech dangerous as the season progresses.

But the real concern for Virginia Tech might be running back Justice Haynes.

Haynes has been one of Georgia Tech’s most productive offensive players, forcing 28 missed tackles through five games. He’s capable of creating yards even when the offensive line doesn’t give him much help.

That matters because Virginia Tech has struggled to consistently get off the field in critical situations.

Georgia Tech’s offensive line hasn’t been particularly impressive this season, but it has shown signs of improvement. If the Yellow Jackets can establish Haynes early, they can keep Virginia Tech’s offense on the sideline and shorten the game.

The Hokies need to make Mendoza beat them through the air.

That doesn’t mean Georgia Tech can’t throw the football. It means Virginia Tech should be more comfortable defending a relatively inexperienced quarterback than allowing Haynes to control the game on the ground.

Of course, this requires Virginia Tech’s secondary to avoid giving up explosive plays and committing unnecessary penalties.

Georgia Tech’s Defense Is a Problem

If there’s one reason to feel optimistic about Saturday, it’s Georgia Tech’s defense.

The Yellow Jackets have struggled across nearly every meaningful defensive category.

Zero turnovers forced against FBS competition. That’s remarkable.

Georgia Tech has struggled to stop the run, struggled to pressure opposing quarterbacks, and struggled to force mistakes.

Now the Yellow Jackets have lost one of their most important defensive players.

Linebacker Kyle Efford announced his medical retirement Tuesday following repeated injuries. Efford led Georgia Tech in tackles in each of the previous three seasons and was one of the team’s most experienced defenders.

His absence leaves an already vulnerable defense with another significant problem.

Virginia Tech should be able to move the football against this group.

And if the Hokies can’t, the offensive concerns are considerably larger than anything we’ve seen over the past two weeks.

Feed Jeffrey Overton

This feels like a game where Virginia Tech should lean heavily on Jeffrey Overton.

Georgia Tech has been vulnerable against the run, allowing nearly 182 rushing yards per game against FBS opponents.

Overton has already demonstrated his ability to take over a football game. His 209-yard performance against Boston College was arguably the biggest reason Virginia Tech escaped Chestnut Hill with a victory.

The Hokies don’t need Grunkemeyer throwing 45 passes Saturday.

They need to establish the running game, create manageable third downs, and force Georgia Tech to bring additional defenders into the box.

That should open opportunities for Luke Reynolds, Que’Sean Brown and Ayden Greene.

There is one complication.

Virginia Tech’s offensive line has been dealing with injuries and significant personnel changes. Layth Ghannam moved to left tackle against Cal, leaving a relatively inexperienced interior group.

Georgia Tech defensive tackle Tawfiq Thomas has seven tackles for loss and two sacks through five games. He’s one of the few Yellow Jackets defenders who has consistently disrupted opposing offenses.

That’s a matchup Virginia Tech needs to account for.

But the broader point remains: Georgia Tech’s defense has been bad enough that Virginia Tech should be able to dictate the game offensively.

Run the football. Protect Grunkemeyer. Finish drives.

Can Virginia Tech’s Defense Finally Finish a Game?

This is the biggest question entering Saturday.

Virginia Tech has allowed 60 points over its past two games. More importantly, the defense has surrendered decisive late scoring drives in consecutive weeks.

Against California, the Hokies committed two 15-yard penalties on the Golden Bears’ final touchdown drive.

One was a pass interference penalty. The other was another costly defensive mistake.

James Franklin has acknowledged the recurring issues with defensive penalties and playing the football in the air.

That’s encouraging, but identifying the problem and fixing it are two different things.

Virginia Tech needs to demonstrate that it can play disciplined defense when the game is on the line.

Georgia Tech isn’t an offensive juggernaut, but Haynes and Mendoza are capable of exploiting mistakes.

The Hokies need to avoid allowing explosive plays, limit unnecessary penalties and force Georgia Tech to sustain long drives.

If the Yellow Jackets have to execute 10 or 12 plays to score, Virginia Tech should have opportunities to create negative plays and get off the field.

If the Hokies continue giving opponents free yards and first downs, it won’t matter how favorable the matchup looks on paper.

SP+ and the Analytics

The underlying matchup still favors Virginia Tech.

The Hokies entered the California game around No. 28 nationally in SP+, while the Golden Bears were ranked in the 80s. Despite that analytical advantage, Virginia Tech lost.

That should serve as a useful reminder that advanced metrics measure team quality, not a team’s ability to avoid catastrophic fourth-quarter mistakes.

I couldn’t verify updated October 14 SP+ or FPI ratings for both teams, so I’m not going to invent exact rankings or model projections.

But the statistical matchup provides a pretty clear picture.

Virginia Tech has the more productive passing offense, the better overall offensive production, and the advantage of playing at home.

Georgia Tech has struggled defensively, particularly against the run, and hasn’t consistently pressured opposing quarterbacks.

The Yellow Jackets’ best opportunity is to control the football with Haynes, limit Virginia Tech’s possessions, and take advantage of mistakes.

The Hokies’ best opportunity is to do what they should have done against California: establish the running game, create explosive plays through the air, and stop giving the other team opportunities to steal the game.

Analytically, Virginia Tech looks like the better team.

But the Hokies have already demonstrated that being better on paper doesn’t guarantee anything.

Betting Analysis

The betting market views Virginia Tech as a fairly substantial favorite, which makes sense when comparing the teams’ overall performances.

Virginia Tech has enough offensive firepower to cover this spread. Georgia Tech’s defense has been vulnerable enough that a 35-point performance from the Hokies wouldn’t be particularly surprising.

The problem is Virginia Tech’s defense.

The Hokies have struggled to close games, and Georgia Tech is coming off a performance in which it scored 28 points against Duke.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Yellow Jackets scored into the 20s, which would require Virginia Tech to produce another strong offensive performance to cover.

The total of 56.5 is interesting.

Virginia Tech averages 37.7 points per game, while Georgia Tech’s defense has allowed nearly 30 points per game against FBS opponents.

That suggests the Hokies should have opportunities to score.

But if Georgia Tech can establish the running game and control possession, the Yellow Jackets could keep the total lower than expected.

My betting lean: Virginia Tech -10.

Keys to the Game

There are five things I’m watching Saturday.

1. Establish Jeffrey Overton early. Georgia Tech has struggled against the run. Virginia Tech needs to make the Yellow Jackets prove they can stop Overton before putting the entire offense on Grunkemeyer’s shoulders.

2. Protect Ethan Grunkemeyer. The offensive line has been dealing with injuries, and Tawfiq Thomas presents a legitimate challenge. Georgia Tech hasn’t generated much pressure overall, so Virginia Tech should have opportunities if it can neutralize Thomas.

3. Eliminate defensive penalties. Virginia Tech has repeatedly extended opposing drives with unnecessary penalties. That can’t continue.

4. Fix the kicking game. John Love has missed three consecutive field goals. Whether Franklin sticks with Love or makes a change, Virginia Tech needs to start converting scoring opportunities.

5. Finish the game. This is the most important one. Virginia Tech has played well enough to win each of its past two games and still managed to lose both. At some point, the Hokies need to demonstrate that they can execute in the fourth quarter.

Final Prediction

I don’t love this matchup as much as I would have two weeks ago.

Georgia Tech is coming off its best win of the season. Virginia Tech is coming off two of its most frustrating losses.

The Yellow Jackets have momentum. The Hokies have questions.

But Virginia Tech is still the more talented team offensively, and Georgia Tech’s defensive weaknesses are difficult to ignore.

I expect Overton to have a productive afternoon against a vulnerable run defense. Grunkemeyer should find opportunities through the air, particularly if Georgia Tech is forced to commit additional defenders to stopping the run.

The concern is whether Virginia Tech can play a complete game.

I don’t expect the Hokies to suddenly fix every defensive problem in one week. Georgia Tech will move the football, Haynes will make some plays, and I wouldn’t be surprised if this game is closer than the spread suggests entering the fourth quarter.

But Virginia Tech is at home, it’s Homecoming, and the Hokies desperately need a win.

James Franklin has spent the past two weeks watching his team lose games it should have won.

I don’t think it happens a third time.

Virginia Tech moves to 5-2 and gets its season back on track before heading to Clemson.

It won’t be perfect. And given what we’ve watched over the past two weeks, there’s a decent chance we’ll spend at least part of Saturday wondering how Virginia Tech is managing to make another winnable game unnecessarily difficult.

But the Hokies should win.

And right now, that’s all that matters.

Final Score: Virginia Tech 35, Georgia Tech 24

October 12, 2026October 12, 2026

2026 Virginia Tech Midseason Review: From 4-0 to Reality Check

Six games into the James Franklin era, Virginia Tech sits at 4-2 overall and 1-2 in the ACC. If you had told me before the season that the Hokies would be 4-2 at the halfway point, I probably would have taken it. After watching this team start 4-0, however, it’s hard not to feel a little disappointed.

Virginia Tech opened the season with four consecutive wins, including road victories over Maryland and Boston College. Lane Stadium was rocking, the offense was putting up ridiculous numbers, and for the first time in what feels like an eternity, Virginia Tech football was actually fun again.

Then Pitt happened. And then Cal happened.

In the span of eight days, Virginia Tech went from an undefeated team with legitimate ACC championship aspirations to a team searching for answers after consecutive losses. The frustrating part isn’t necessarily that the Hokies lost two games. It’s how they lost them.

Against Pitt, Virginia Tech produced 578 yards of offense and still managed to lose 35-33. Against Cal, the Hokies led with 75 seconds remaining before allowing the Golden Bears to march 75 yards in less than a minute for the winning touchdown.

Two games. Two losses by a combined seven points. Two games Virginia Tech had every opportunity to win.

Sound familiar?

The difference between this team and the Virginia Tech teams we’ve watched over the past several years is that the talent and offensive production are clearly improving. The problem is that the Hokies are still making the kinds of mistakes that have plagued the program for the better part of a decade.

Let’s take a look at where things stand halfway through the 2026 season.

The First Six Games

Opponent

Result

VMI

W 73-3

Old Dominion

W 44-21

at Maryland

W 35-26

at Boston College

W 21-14

Pittsburgh

L 33-35

at California

L 20-25

The first four games showed exactly why Virginia Tech hired James Franklin. The Hokies were more explosive offensively, looked better prepared, and demonstrated an ability to win games in different ways.

The VMI game was a glorified scrimmage, but scoring 73 points was a nice way to introduce the new coaching staff. Old Dominion provided a slightly better test, and Virginia Tech handled business.

The Maryland game was probably the first indication that this team might be ahead of schedule. Going on the road and beating a Big Ten opponent 35-26 was encouraging, particularly for a program that has struggled to consistently beat Power Four competition.

Then came Boston College.

Playing in absolutely miserable weather, Virginia Tech found itself trailing 14-6 in the fourth quarter. Jeffrey Overton Jr. proceeded to put the offense on his back, finishing with 209 rushing yards and breaking a 76-yard touchdown run that helped deliver a 21-14 victory.

At 4-0, there was legitimate reason to be excited.

Unfortunately, the next two weeks exposed some pretty significant problems.

Against Pitt, turnovers and missed opportunities erased an outstanding offensive performance. Against Cal, Virginia Tech failed to protect a late lead against a team it should have beaten.

Now, instead of talking about whether Virginia Tech can compete for an ACC championship, we’re talking about whether the Hokies can avoid another disappointing second half of the season. That’s quite a turnaround.

Offense: A Significant Improvement

The biggest positive from the first six games has been the offense.

Virginia Tech is averaging 37.7 points per game, and Ethan Grunkemeyer has been considerably better than I expected entering the season.

Grunkemeyer has shown he can distribute the football, push the ball downfield and put up big numbers against quality competition. His 434-yard, three-touchdown performance against Pitt was probably the most encouraging individual offensive performance of the season.

The problem is consistency. Virginia Tech scored 73 points against VMI and 44 against Old Dominion. Against Boston College and Cal, the Hokies managed just 21 and 20 points, respectively. That’s not particularly encouraging as the schedule gets tougher.

Jeffrey Overton Jr. has been a tremendous addition to the backfield. His performance against Boston College essentially saved Virginia Tech from an embarrassing loss, and he has demonstrated the ability to create explosive plays when the offense needs them.

Ayden Greene has also emerged as a legitimate receiving threat, while Que’Sean Brown and the other offensive weapons have given Grunkemeyer options in the passing game.

The offensive line has generally been better than what we’ve seen in recent years, although there’s still room for improvement.

Overall, I’m encouraged by the offense. This group is capable of scoring enough points to win eight or nine games. The question is whether it can consistently execute when it matters most.

Midseason Offensive Grade: B+

Defense: Still a Work in Progress

Brent Pry’s return to defensive coordinator was one of the most interesting developments of the offseason. Six games into the season, I think the results have been mixed.

Virginia Tech is allowing 20.7 points per game. On paper, that’s respectable. But those numbers are helped significantly by the VMI game.

The Hokies have surrendered 35 points to Pitt and 25 to Cal in consecutive weeks. More concerning than the actual point totals is how those points were scored.

Against Cal, Virginia Tech took a 20-19 lead with 1:15 remaining. The defense then allowed the Golden Bears to go 75 yards in six plays and score the winning touchdown with 18 seconds left. That’s unacceptable.

The secondary was supposed to be one of the strengths of this team, but Virginia Tech has struggled to prevent explosive passing plays and get critical stops.

The front seven has shown flashes of being disruptive, but the defense hasn’t consistently generated enough pressure to make opposing quarterbacks uncomfortable.

I don’t think the defense is terrible. It’s clearly capable of playing well for extended stretches. The problem is that it hasn’t demonstrated the ability to finish games.

If Virginia Tech wants to win some of these tougher ACC matchups, the defense needs to improve considerably over the next six games.

Midseason Defensive Grade: C+

Coaching Staff: The Honeymoon Is Over

I still believe James Franklin was an excellent hire for Virginia Tech. He’s brought credibility, improved the roster, upgraded the offense and made Virginia Tech football relevant again.

But the past two weeks have been a reminder that rebuilding a football program isn’t as simple as hiring a successful head coach.

The biggest disappointment has been the late-game execution. Virginia Tech had multiple opportunities to beat Pitt and couldn’t finish. Against Cal, the Hokies managed to take the lead late in the fourth quarter only to immediately surrender it. Those are the kinds of games Franklin was hired to win.

The good news is that Virginia Tech has been competitive in every game this season. Unlike previous years, there hasn’t been a game where the Hokies looked completely overmatched.

The bad news is that being competitive isn’t the standard. Franklin doesn’t need to win 10 games in Year 1, but Virginia Tech needs to stop finding ways to lose games it should win.

Midseason Coaching Grade: B-

Midseason Awards

MVP: Ethan Grunkemeyer

Grunkemeyer has exceeded my expectations through six games. He’s demonstrated that Virginia Tech can have a legitimate passing attack, and his performance against Pitt showed what this offense is capable of when he’s playing well.

Honorable Mention: Jeffrey Overton Jr.

Biggest Surprise: The Passing Game

I expected the offense to improve under Franklin, but I didn’t expect Grunkemeyer to produce a 434-yard passing performance against an undefeated Pitt team.

Biggest Disappointment: Late-Game Execution

Virginia Tech is a handful of plays away from being 6-0. Instead, the Hokies are 4-2. At some point, the program has to start making those plays.

The Remaining Schedule

Opponent

Midseason Prediction

Georgia Tech

Win

at Clemson

Loss

at SMU

Loss

Stanford

Win

at Miami

Loss

Virginia

Win

Tough Games (Less Than 40% Chance to Win)

at Clemson

Winning in Death Valley is difficult, and Virginia Tech hasn’t demonstrated the consistency needed to feel confident about going into Clemson and winning.

at Miami

Miami has more talent across the roster, and playing the Hurricanes on the road late in November is going to be a significant challenge.

at SMU

Another Friday night road game against a talented ACC opponent. This feels like exactly the kind of game Virginia Tech could win if everything comes together, but I’m not predicting it.

Toss-Up Games

Georgia Tech

This might be the most important remaining game on the schedule. Virginia Tech needs to end its two-game losing streak, and doing it at home against Georgia Tech would go a long way toward restoring confidence.

Virginia

I don’t care what the records are. This is a rivalry game, and Virginia Tech needs to win it. Losing to Virginia at home would put a significant damper on what should be an encouraging first season under Franklin.

Should Win Games (Greater Than 60% Chance to Win)

Stanford

Virginia Tech should have the talent advantage, and this is a game the Hokies need to win if they want to finish with a respectable record.

Keys to the Second Half

There are three things I’m looking for over the final six games.

First, Virginia Tech needs to play cleaner football. Turnovers, missed assignments and late-game mistakes have already cost this team two wins. That has to change.

Second, the defense needs to improve. The Hokies don’t need a Top 10 defense to win eight games, but they need to get stops when the game is on the line.

Third, Virginia Tech needs to show that it can bounce back from adversity. Starting 4-0 was great, but how this team responds to consecutive losses will tell us considerably more about the direction of the program.

Final Prediction: 7-5

Before the season, I predicted Virginia Tech would finish 8-4. I still think that’s possible, but the loss to Pitt makes getting there considerably more difficult.

Looking at the remaining schedule, I see three games Virginia Tech should be able to win and three games where the Hokies will probably be underdogs.

Beat Georgia Tech, Stanford and Virginia, and Virginia Tech finishes 7-5.

Steal one against Clemson, SMU or Miami, and the Hokies finish 8-4.

Lose another game they should win, and suddenly we’re talking about 6-6.

I think 7-5 is the most realistic outcome.

Would that be a successful first season under James Franklin? I think so.

Remember where this program was a year ago. Virginia Tech was 2-4 at the halfway point, had already fired Brent Pry and was staring down another losing season. Now the Hokies are 4-2 with a legitimate offense, a proven head coach and a much more encouraging outlook for the future.

That’s progress.

But the past two weeks have also been a reminder of how far this program still has to go.

Virginia Tech didn’t hire James Franklin to consistently win seven games. The goal is to compete for ACC championships, return to the Top 25 and eventually become a legitimate College Football Playoff contender.

That’s not happening overnight.

The good news is that Virginia Tech looks considerably closer to becoming a good football program than it did 12 months ago.

The bad news is that we’re still watching the Hokies lose games they should win.

Final Regular Season Prediction: 7-5 (4-4 ACC)

Expected ACC Finish: 7th-10th

Overall Midseason Grade: B-

October 7, 2026

Virginia Tech vs. California Preview: Time to Bounce Back in Berkeley

Virginia Tech had every opportunity to beat Pitt Friday night. The Hokies outgained the Panthers by more than 200 yards, Ethan Grunkemeyer threw for 434 yards and Virginia Tech had a chance to win the game with a field goal on the final play.

Instead, Pitt left Blacksburg with a 35-33 win and Virginia Tech left with its first loss of the James Franklin era. That’s college football.Now we find out how this team responds.

Virginia Tech at California
Saturday, October 10 — 3:30 PM ET
Databricks Field at California Memorial Stadium — Berkeley, CA
TV: ACC Network
Records: Virginia Tech 4-1 (1-1 ACC), California 2-3 (1-1 ACC)
Betting Line: Virginia Tech roughly -9.5 | O/U 53.5

This is Virginia Tech’s longest regular-season trip of the year and Cal’s Homecoming weekend. It’s also exactly the kind of game Virginia Tech has spent the last decade finding increasingly creative ways to lose.

Cross-country flight. Noon Pacific kickoff. Weird stadium. Opponent on a losing streak. Virginia Tech coming off an emotional Friday night loss. Wonderful. The difference is Virginia Tech should be considerably better than Cal.

Moving On From Pitt

There are two ways to look at what happened Friday night. The first is that Virginia Tech lost at home, turned the ball over, gave up 35 points and wasted an opportunity to start 5-0.

The other is that Virginia Tech produced 578 yards of offense against an undefeated Pitt team, Grunkemeyer threw for 434 yards and three touchdowns, and the Hokies were one kick away from winning despite making enough mistakes to lose approximately four different football games.

Virginia Tech is averaging 41.2 points and 469.8 yards per game through five games. Grunkemeyer has completed roughly 74% of his passes for 1,446 yards, 11 touchdowns and two interceptions. The Hokies are averaging more than 314 passing yards per game.

The Pitt game actually reinforced that more than anything. After struggling to throw the football in a monsoon at Boston College, Grunkemeyer immediately responded with the best statistical passing performance of his Virginia Tech career.

The problem was everything around it. Turnovers. Defensive breakdowns. Missed opportunities. A missed field goal. Virginia Tech doesn’t need to dramatically change what it is doing offensively. It needs to stop helping the other team.

Meet the Golden Bears

Cal is 2-3, and things are not going particularly well in Berkeley. The Bears opened the season with a 45-24 loss to UCLA, rebounded by beating Syracuse and Wagner, then lost 24-10 to Clemson before falling 39-31 at UNLV last weekend. That’s two straight losses and 63 points allowed over those two games.

Cal is averaging 27 points per game while allowing 26.6. The Bears are throwing for roughly 301 yards per game but rushing for only 95 yards per game, one of the worst marks in the country.

Cal has been pretty good defending the pass on a down-to-down basis but has been terrible against explosive plays and vulnerable against the run. Opponents are averaging more than five yards per rushing attempt.

That should get Jeffrey Overton’s attention.

This is also a Cal team that committed 16 penalties against UNLV. Sixteen.

Virginia Tech has certainly demonstrated an ability to make life unnecessarily difficult for itself, but Cal appears willing to participate in that competition.

Who Is Playing Quarterback for Cal?

This is the biggest question entering Saturday.

Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele left the UNLV game late in the second quarter after taking a hard hit and hitting his head on the turf. He was medically cleared to return, but Cal head coach Tosh Lupoi kept him out as a precaution.

Before leaving, Sagapolutele was 19-of-27 for 195 yards and a touchdown. Backup Jackson Brousseau came in and was actually pretty good. He completed 19-of-32 passes for 200 yards and two touchdowns as Cal rallied from a 24-7 halftime deficit. So Virginia Tech has to prepare for both.

Sagapolutele has thrown for 1,180 yards, eight touchdowns and five interceptions this season. He’s talented and capable of creating explosive plays — his 91-yard touchdown pass to Taimane Purcell against UNLV was the second-longest pass play in Cal history.

But he has also been inconsistent. That’s where Virginia Tech needs to take advantage. The Hokies have struggled at times with explosive passing plays and coverage breakdowns. We saw it against Maryland. We saw it again against Pitt.

Cal’s inability to consistently run the football should allow Virginia Tech to make whichever quarterback starts prove he can sustain drives through the air. Don’t give up the 70-yard touchdown. Make Cal go 12 plays. Eventually, this offense tends to make a mistake.

Feed Jeffrey Overton

Cal is allowing 187 rushing yards per game and more than five yards per carry. Virginia Tech has Jeffrey Overton.

Overton has 455 rushing yards this season while averaging 5.9 yards per carry. We already watched him completely take over the Boston College game with 209 yards and the 76-yard touchdown that rescued Virginia Tech in the fourth quarter.

Pitt did a much better job preventing Virginia Tech from controlling the game on the ground. Cal isn’t Pitt. Virginia Tech should make the Bears prove they can stop Overton before asking Grunkemeyer to throw the football 40 times again.

That doesn’t mean being conservative.It means forcing Cal to devote resources to stopping Overton, then letting Grunkemeyer attack a secondary that suddenly has to worry about Luke Reynolds, Que’Sean Brown and Ayden Greene in space.

Virginia Tech has enough offensive weapons that Cal shouldn’t be able to take everything away. Make them pick their poison.

Ethan Grunkemeyer Should Have Opportunities

Grunkemeyer now has 1,446 passing yards through five games. Virginia Tech has spent years begging for a functional passing game. Now the Hokies have a quarterback completing approximately three-quarters of his passes while averaging nearly 290 passing yards per game. Against Pitt, he threw for 434.

There were mistakes — including two interceptions — but the larger takeaway should be pretty obvious. Virginia Tech can throw the football. Luke Reynolds continues to be one of the most important pieces of the offense with 37 catches for 373 yards and four touchdowns. Que’Sean Brown, Ayden Greene and Overton give Grunkemeyer multiple other options.

Cal’s pass defense has produced good efficiency numbers, so I don’t expect another effortless 400-yard performance. But if the Bears have to bring an extra defender into the box to stop Overton, Virginia Tech should get favorable matchups outside.

The Cross-Country Factor

Here’s the part that makes me nervous. Virginia Tech is traveling approximately 2,500 miles across three time zones to play a 12:30 PM local kickoff.

Virginia Tech also played Friday night, which gives the Hokies an extra day to prepare, but this is still the furthest they will travel during the regular season.

Virginia Tech has already gone to Maryland and Boston College and won. The Hokies have demonstrated that they can function away from Lane Stadium.

Cal, meanwhile, has lost three of five games and is 1-2 at home. If Virginia Tech wants to be taken seriously as an ACC contender, the travel excuse doesn’t work here.

SP+ Likes Virginia Tech

This is one of the more interesting parts of the matchup. Virginia Tech is currently around No. 28 nationally in SP+, while Cal has fallen into the 80s.

An SP+-based projection makes Virginia Tech approximately a 12.5-point favorite even after accounting for Cal’s home-field advantage, with roughly a 78% win probability.

That’s a pretty significant gap. For comparison, SP+ viewed the Pitt game as essentially a toss-up. This one isn’t. The model sees Virginia Tech as substantially better offensively, better defensively and slightly better on special teams. Obviously models don’t have to sit on an airplane for five hours. But analytically, Virginia Tech should win this football game.

Betting Analysis

The betting market isn’t quite as bullish on Virginia Tech as SP+. Virginia Tech opened around a 10.5-point favorite at some sportsbooks, with the line settling around Tech -9.5 at several books as of Tuesday morning. The total is around 53.5.

Cal struggles to run the football. Virginia Tech should be able to run the football. The Hokies have a significant offensive advantage and Cal is coming off consecutive losses in which it allowed 24 and 39 points.

The obvious concern is the travel. But over four quarters, I think Virginia Tech’s offense creates too many problems.

Three Keys to the Game

1. Run the football

This doesn’t need to be complicated. Cal has struggled against the run. Virginia Tech has Jeffrey Overton. Give him the football. If Cal commits extra defenders to stopping him, let Grunkemeyer punish them.

2. Eliminate the stupid mistakes

Virginia Tech was good enough to beat Pitt. Virginia Tech also did enough stupid things to lose to Pitt. Both can be true.

Turnovers, coverage busts and special-teams mistakes turn games you should win comfortably into fourth-quarter coin flips. Don’t give Cal free possessions and don’t give up cheap touchdowns.

3. Start fast

The easiest way to eliminate the weirdness of a cross-country road game is to immediately make it a football game. Score early. Force a three-and-out. Get Overton going. Don’t let Cal hang around for two hours.

The Pick

I don’t think Cal is terrible. Sagapolutele is talented if he plays. Brousseau showed against UNLV that he can move the offense. Cal has enough skill talent to create some explosive plays, and traveling across the country is always going to add some uncertainty.

But Virginia Tech is better. More importantly, I think the Pitt loss actually gives us another reason to believe that.

Virginia Tech played poorly in several important areas Friday night and still put up 578 yards against an undefeated Power 4 opponent. Grunkemeyer threw for 434 yards. The Hokies had the ball with an opportunity to win the game at the end.

That isn’t the Virginia Tech team we’ve been watching for the last several years. Now comes the next step. Good teams lose games. Good teams don’t allow one loss to become two.

I think Virginia Tech establishes Overton early, Grunkemeyer hits enough explosive plays to push the game into the 30s and the defense forces Cal into a couple of mistakes.

It might be uncomfortable for a quarter. Maybe even a half. Then the talent difference takes over.

Virginia Tech 38, California 24

Hokies bounce back and move to 5-1.

September 29, 2026September 29, 2026

Virginia Tech vs. Pitt Preview: Friday Night in Blacksburg

Well, here we are. Virginia Tech is 4-0. Pitt is 4-0. Both teams are 1-0 in the ACC. And on Friday night, under the lights in a sold-out Lane Stadium, somebody is leaving with their first loss of the season.

After surviving the remnants of a hurricane in Chestnut Hill last weekend, Virginia Tech returns home for what is easily the biggest game of the James Franklin era so far.

Pitt at Virginia Tech
Friday, October 2 — 7:00 PM ET
Lane Stadium — Blacksburg, VA
TV: ESPN

Virginia Tech’s 21-14 win over Boston College wasn’t particularly pretty. The Hokies trailed 14-6 in the fourth quarter, the passing game struggled in ridiculous weather conditions, and for the first time this season Tech found itself legitimately staring at a loss. Then Jeffrey Overton happened.

Overton finished with 209 rushing yards, including a 76-yard fourth-quarter touchdown that put Virginia Tech ahead for good. The performance earned him ACC Running Back of the Week honors and pushed his season average to 102.3 rushing yards per game, second-best in the conference.

The result was important for reasons beyond getting to 4-0. Virginia Tech had blown out VMI and Old Dominion and controlled most of the Maryland game. Boston College was different. Things went wrong. Tech fell behind. The weather eliminated a big chunk of the offense. And the Hokies still found a way to win. Now the difficulty level goes up considerably.

Meet the Panthers

Pitt enters Blacksburg at 4-0 after absolutely vaporizing Bucknell 59-0. The Panthers produced a school-record 766 yards of offense, including 574 passing yards, while tying the ACC record with eight touchdown passes. That’s probably worth mentioning.

Pitt is averaging 39.3 points and 523.8 yards per game, including 347.3 through the air. Defensively, the Panthers have been even more impressive, allowing only 8.5 points and 244.5 yards per game. They’ve held every opponent to 14 points or fewer. There is, however, an enormous asterisk attached to those numbers.

Pitt has played all four games at home, and Friday night represents its first road game of the season. More importantly, quarterback Mason Heintschel’s eye-popping touchdown numbers have largely been accumulated against lesser competition; as of Monday, none of his 13 touchdown passes had come against a Power Four defense. So Friday night should tell us considerably more about both teams.

The Mason Heintschel Problem

If there’s one player Virginia Tech fans should know before Friday night, it’s Pitt quarterback Mason Heintschel. The sophomore has completed 67.7% of his passes for 1,191 yards, 13 touchdowns and just one interception. Against Bucknell, he went nuclear: 403 yards and six touchdowns without throwing an interception.

Pitt also has legitimate receiving depth. Thirteen different Panthers caught a pass against Bucknell, and five caught touchdowns.

This isn’t an offense where Virginia Tech can simply take away one receiver. The encouraging part for Tech is that Brent Pry’s defense has generally done a good job preventing traditional rushing attacks from taking over games. Pitt averages 176.5 rushing yards per game, but the matchup Virginia Tech really needs to win is obvious:

Make Pitt earn everything through the air while getting pressure on Heintschel.

The worst possible scenario is allowing Pitt to establish the run, stay ahead of the chains and let Heintschel operate comfortably off play action. Friday night needs to be the first time this season that the sophomore quarterback looks uncomfortable. Lane Stadium can help with that.

Pitt’s Defense Is Legit

This is also easily the best defense Virginia Tech has faced. Pitt is giving up only 53.3 rushing yards per game and 244.5 total yards per game. Opponents are averaging just 4.2 yards per play.

That’s where the Jeffrey Overton matchup becomes fascinating. Virginia Tech just rode Overton through a monsoon for 209 yards against Boston College. He’s averaging more than 100 yards per game and has emerged as one of the most explosive players in the ACC.

Pitt knows exactly what’s coming. Pat Narduzzi specifically praised Virginia Tech’s offensive line and Overton this week and described defending Tech’s rushing attack as a “chess match.” He also pointed out the multiple tempos Virginia Tech uses offensively and the different ways the Hokies deploy tight end Luke Reynolds. This is where Ethan Grunkemeyer becomes important.

Time for Grunkemeyer to Make Some Plays

I’m willing to throw most of the Boston College passing numbers into the Atlantic Ocean. Grunkemeyer finished with just 147 passing yards, but trying to evaluate a passing game played in rain with winds approaching 40 mph is mostly pointless.

Before that game, we’d seen what this passing attack could do. Grunkemeyer threw for 327 yards against Old Dominion and 314 against Maryland. Luke Reynolds topped 100 receiving yards in both games.

Virginia Tech probably isn’t running for 250 yards against Pitt. That means there are going to be moments Friday night when Grunkemeyer has to make a throw on third-and-7. Those are the plays that could determine the game.

If Pitt has to respect Grunkemeyer, Reynolds, Que’Sean Brown and the rest of Virginia Tech’s passing attack, Overton becomes considerably more dangerous. If the Panthers can load the box and turn Virginia Tech one-dimensional? That’s a problem.

The Lane Stadium Factor

This isn’t just another home game. It’s Friday night. It’s a sellout. It’s a Stripe Effect game. It’s two undefeated ACC teams. And Pitt hasn’t played a road game this season.

Even Narduzzi acknowledged this week that Blacksburg will be one of the loudest environments Pitt encounters all season and that the noise will require adjustments to communication and snap counts.

That’s significant because Pitt hasn’t had to deal with anything remotely resembling this environment in 2026. Virginia Tech needs to weaponize that immediately.

Get Pitt into a third-and-long on the opening possession. Force a false start. Make Heintschel burn a timeout. Make a young quarterback communicate with 65,000 people screaming at him while Enter Sandman is still rattling around his skull. That’s home-field advantage.

SP+ Says This Is Basically a Toss-Up

This is where things get interesting.

Current SP+ data has Pitt around No. 20 nationally and Virginia Tech around No. 28. On a neutral field, the model views Pitt as roughly 2.4 points better.

Move the game to Lane Stadium, however, and SP+ projects essentially a coin flip: Virginia Tech by 0.6 points, with roughly a 51% win probability.

That’s substantially different from the betting market. And I tend to think SP+ has the right idea about the closeness of this matchup. Pitt’s statistical profile is excellent. But Virginia Tech has already played two Power Four opponents away from home, while Pitt hasn’t left Pittsburgh. Friday should tell us whether those Panthers numbers are real.

Betting Analysis

The market opened with Virginia Tech around a 5.5-point favorite, although the line has moved around depending on the sportsbook. As of September 28, books were showing Tech anywhere from roughly -3.5 to -6, with totals generally in the low-to-mid 50s.

That’s a pretty significant disagreement between the market and the analytics. SP+ essentially says pick ’em with Virginia Tech receiving a small home-field edge. Another independent power-rating model made Virginia Tech only about a half-point favorite after accounting for Lane Stadium.

So if you’re laying close to a touchdown with Virginia Tech, you’re making a pretty strong statement that Lane Stadium, Pitt’s untested schedule and Tech’s offensive ceiling matter more than the underlying efficiency numbers.

I’m much more comfortable with Virginia Tech around -3 than I am around -6. The total is also interesting. Pitt’s defense hasn’t allowed more than 14 points all season, while Virginia Tech is averaging 43.3 points per game. Something has to give. I don’t think this turns into a 45-42 shootout.

Three Keys to the Game

1. Make Heintschel uncomfortable

He’s thrown 13 touchdowns and one interception because he’s largely been operating from clean situations. Virginia Tech needs to change that. Pressure him, disguise coverages and make him prove he can execute in a hostile road environment.

2. Stay patient with Overton

Pitt’s rushing-defense numbers are ridiculous. That doesn’t mean Virginia Tech should abandon the run if Overton has 24 yards after eight carries. Eventually, he’s going to get an opportunity. Boston College learned that lesson approximately 76 yards too late.

3. Win third down

This feels like a game where five or six plays will determine the outcome. Third-and-medium situations are going to be enormous. Virginia Tech can’t continually give Heintschel extra possessions, and Grunkemeyer is going to have to convert some uncomfortable third downs against the best defense he’s faced.

The Pick

This is the first game on Virginia Tech’s schedule where I can legitimately talk myself into either team winning. Pitt might be really good.

The Panthers have been dominant statistically. Their defense has been outstanding. Heintschel looks like a legitimate ACC quarterback. And Pat Narduzzi has certainly had success against Virginia Tech before — Pitt has won three of the past four meetings. But Friday night is an entirely different test. Pitt has spent the first month of the season at home.

Now a sophomore quarterback has to walk into a sold-out Lane Stadium at night against an undefeated Virginia Tech team that just discovered it can take a punch and keep fighting. I think the game stays close into the fourth quarter. Overton breaks one. Grunkemeyer makes a couple of throws when Virginia Tech absolutely has to have them. And the defense forces Heintschel into his first major mistake of the season.

Virginia Tech 27, Pitt 23

Hokies move to 5-0.

September 23, 2026

Virginia Tech vs Boston College Preview and Prediction

Date & Time: Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 12:00 p.m. ET
Location: Alumni Stadium, Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts
Broadcast: ACC Network
Records: Virginia Tech (3-0), Boston College (2-1)
Betting Line: Virginia Tech -13.5 | O/U 48.5

A week ago Virginia Tech went to Maryland trying to prove that the first two weeks of the James Franklin era weren’t just the result of beating up on VMI and Old Dominion. They proved it.

Virginia Tech beat Maryland 35-26, snapped a 15-game losing streak against nonconference Power 4 opponents and improved to 3-0 for the first time since 2017. Ethan Grunkemeyer threw for 314 yards and three touchdowns. Luke Reynolds caught 12 passes. The Hokies controlled the football for more than 36 minutes and basically spent three quarters doing exactly what good football teams are supposed to do on the road.

Now comes a completely different challenge. Virginia Tech travels to Boston College as roughly a two-touchdown favorite for its first ACC game of the season. This isn’t about proving Virginia Tech belongs anymore. This is about proving Virginia Tech can consistently beat teams it is supposed to beat. And if you’ve watched Virginia Tech football over the last decade, you know exactly why that sentence makes me nervous.

Virginia Tech Is Actually 3-0

We can officially stop qualifying everything. Virginia Tech is good. How good? I still don’t know. But this is clearly a dramatically better football team than the one we watched a year ago.

The biggest reason is Grunkemeyer. Through three games, he has completed 78.2% of his passes for 865 yards, seven touchdowns and zero interceptions. He has now thrown for more than 300 yards in consecutive games, becoming the first Virginia Tech quarterback to do that since Ryan Willis in 2018. Against Maryland, Grunkemeyer completed 31-of-39 passes for 314 yards and three touchdowns. He also ran for an 18-yard touchdown. More importantly, he looked completely comfortable doing it.

Maryland pressured him. Grunkemeyer moved in the pocket. Maryland dropped defenders into coverage. He took the underneath stuff. Maryland gave him opportunities downfield. He took those too. He isn’t playing like a quarterback trying to win the game by himself. He’s playing like a quarterback who understands he doesn’t have to.

Boston College Isn’t Exactly a Pushover

Boston College is 2-1. The Eagles opened the season with a 34-15 loss at Cincinnati, then came home and beat Rutgers 28-21 before narrowly escaping Maine 22-16. Yes. Maine.

Boston College led that game 16-0 in the first quarter and then spent the remaining three quarters doing everything possible to make it interesting. The Eagles managed only six points after the first quarter. They went 4-of-12 on third down and 2-of-5 in the red zone. Quarterback Mason McKenzie threw two interceptions. That doesn’t exactly scream “team ready to beat Virginia Tech.” But there are some things here that should concern you.

McKenzie is a legitimate dual-threat quarterback. Through three games, he has thrown for 648 yards and three touchdowns while rushing for 225 yards. Against Rutgers, he ran 13 times for 94 yards and a touchdown. Evan Dickens gives Boston College another legitimate rushing threat. He ran for 102 yards against Maine, including a 39-yard touchdown. This offense isn’t explosive enough to scare Virginia Tech simply by lining up and throwing the football all over the field. But McKenzie creates exactly the type of problem that has given Virginia Tech trouble approximately 47,000 times over the last 20 years. A mobile quarterback. Wonderful.

Ethan Grunkemeyer vs. Boston College’s Secondary

This is the matchup where Virginia Tech should have a pretty significant advantage. The Hokies are averaging 330.7 passing yards per game. Grunkemeyer has completed 78.2% of his passes. Virginia Tech has had at least nine different players catch a pass in every game this season. And then there’s Luke Reynolds.

Reynolds has 25 catches for 265 yards and four touchdowns through three games. He followed an eight-catch, 108-yard performance against Old Dominion with 12 catches for 107 yards against Maryland. At this point he isn’t just a nice piece of the offense. He’s the centerpiece of it.

Boston College’s defense is allowing 331 yards per game overall and 172 through the air, but those numbers need some context. The Eagles haven’t faced a passing offense like Virginia Tech’s. Rutgers threw for 230 yards against BC, including a 60-yard touchdown. Maine threw for 201. Virginia Tech shouldn’t need to reinvent anything here.

Get Grunkemeyer comfortable early. Get Reynolds involved. Force Boston College to defend the entire width of the field. Make the Eagles decide whether they want to devote extra attention to Reynolds and create opportunities for Ayden Greene, Que’Sean Brown and everyone else. So far, nobody has really figured out how to make Grunkemeyer uncomfortable. I’m not convinced Boston College will be the first.

Please Tackle Mason McKenzie

This is probably the biggest key to the game. McKenzie is Boston College’s leading rusher with 225 yards through three games. Read that again. The quarterback is their leading rusher.

Against Rutgers, he ran for 94 yards. Against Cincinnati, he ran for 78. Against Maine, he added another 53. Some of that is designed. Some of it is scrambling. Either way, Virginia Tech has to account for him. The good news is Virginia Tech’s defensive front has generally been excellent against traditional rushing attacks.

Maryland managed only 26 rushing yards from leading rusher Harry Dalton III last week. The Terrapins basically abandoned the running game and let Malik Washington throw 43 times. The bad news is mobile quarterbacks change the math. Mylachi Williams, Cortez Harris and the rest of Virginia Tech’s front can’t get so aggressive rushing the passer that they create huge running lanes. Make McKenzie beat you from the pocket. He has thrown five interceptions in three games.

Virginia Tech’s Secondary Needs to Be Better

Here is the one thing coming out of Maryland that I don’t love. Virginia Tech gave up 359 passing yards and three touchdowns to Malik Washington. Some of that was game situation. Maryland was trailing most of the night and threw the football 43 times. Some of it was also Virginia Tech getting beat.

There were coverage breakdowns. Maryland created explosive plays. Virginia Tech didn’t consistently generate pressure with four rushers, and Washington took advantage. Boston College doesn’t have Maryland’s passing attack. McKenzie has completed just 60% of his passes and has thrown five interceptions against three touchdowns.

This should be an opportunity for the secondary to respond. Virginia Tech doesn’t need to play ultra-aggressively here. Keep McKenzie in front of you. Don’t lose contain. Make Boston College execute 10 or 12 plays to score. Eventually, I think the Eagles will make a mistake.

Virginia Tech Has to Keep Running the Football

Remember when we were worried about Virginia Tech’s running game after Old Dominion? Maryland was better. Marcellous Hawkins ran for 75 yards, and Jeffrey Overton continued to show why he’s going to have a role in this offense. Virginia Tech finished with 162.7 rushing yards per game through three weeks, which isn’t spectacular, but it’s enough when Grunkemeyer is completing nearly 80% of his passes. That’s really all Virginia Tech needs.

The Hokies don’t have to become 1999 Virginia Tech and run the football 50 times. They just need enough balance that defenses can’t completely sell out against the pass. Boston College is allowing 159 rushing yards per game. Run the ball. Make BC’s linebackers step forward. Then throw it to Luke Reynolds behind them approximately 19 times.

Key Statistical Matchups

Virginia Tech passing offense vs. Boston College pass defense

Virginia Tech is averaging 330.7 passing yards per game. Boston College is allowing 172. Something has to give. I think those BC numbers are at least partially opponent-driven. Cincinnati, Rutgers and Maine aren’t exactly lighting up the national passing statistics. Grunkemeyer is easily the best quarterback Boston College has faced.

Mason McKenzie’s legs vs. Virginia Tech’s front seven

This is the one. Virginia Tech cannot allow McKenzie to turn third-and-8 into first downs with his legs. Force him to throw from the pocket and eventually there should be turnover opportunities. Five interceptions in three games is a lot.

Turnovers

Grunkemeyer: zero interceptions.
McKenzie: five interceptions.

Virginia Tech hasn’t been perfect protecting the football overall, but the quarterback hasn’t put the ball in danger very often. Against a nearly two-touchdown underdog, don’t give them free possessions. This game becomes significantly more annoying if Virginia Tech turns the ball over twice.

Third down

Virginia Tech is converting more than half of its third downs this season. Boston College is converting around one-third. That matters. Virginia Tech went 12-of-18 on conversion downs against Maryland and possessed the ball for more than 36 minutes. Do that again and Boston College is going to have a very difficult time generating enough possessions to win.

The Bill O’Brien Factor

Apparently James Franklin is going to have a personal connection with every coach Virginia Tech plays this season. Franklin and Bill O’Brien were both assistants under Ralph Friedgen at Maryland in 2003 and 2004. O’Brien coached running backs. Franklin coached wide receivers. Then O’Brien became Penn State’s head coach in 2012. Franklin replaced him in 2014.

O’Brien is also legitimately a good offensive coach. He’s calling the plays for Boston College this season, and Franklin specifically praised his ability to manufacture yards through formations, leverage and numbers. That matters with a quarterback like McKenzie.

Boston College probably isn’t going to line up and physically overwhelm Virginia Tech. O’Brien is going to have to manufacture advantages. Misdirection. Quarterback runs. Screens. Play action. Anything that can make Virginia Tech hesitate for half a second.

SP+ / FPI

This is where things start looking pretty favorable for Virginia Tech. The current numbers have Virginia Tech around +12.7 in SP+ compared with Boston College at approximately -3.3.

FPI tells a similar story, with Virginia Tech around +10.3 and Boston College around -3.9. That’s a pretty substantial gap.

It also lines up almost perfectly with the betting market, which currently has Virginia Tech favored by around 13.5 points. For the first time this season, the computers, Vegas and my eyeballs all seem to be saying basically the same thing. Virginia Tech is considerably better than Boston College.

What I’m Looking For

This week is less complicated than Maryland.

Can Virginia Tech handle success?

Can the Hokies go on the road for a noon game against an inferior opponent and immediately take control?

Can the defense keep Mason McKenzie inside the pocket?

Can Virginia Tech’s secondary clean up some of the problems we saw against Maryland?

Can Grunkemeyer continue playing turnover-free football?

Can the running game continue improving?

And maybe most importantly: can Virginia Tech avoid turning this into one of those inexplicably stupid Boston College games?

Because we have seen enough of those. Virginia Tech has won the last three meetings with Boston College by scores of 42-21, 48-22 and 27-10. Keep doing that.

Betting Analysis

Virginia Tech opened around a 14-point favorite, with the line sitting around Virginia Tech -13.5 as of Tuesday morning. The total is around 48.5. That’s a big number for a road conference game. It’s also difficult for me to argue that it’s wrong.

Virginia Tech is averaging 50.7 points and 493.3 yards per game. Boston College just scored 22 points against Maine and needed a safety and two field goals to get there. The question isn’t really whether Virginia Tech is better. It’s whether the Hokies are two touchdowns better on the road. I think they probably are.

Boston College’s best path to covering is shortening the game with McKenzie and Dickens, forcing a turnover or two and turning this into an ugly noon ACC rock fight.

Virginia Tech’s path is much simpler. Don’t turn the ball over. Make McKenzie throw. Let Grunkemeyer distribute the football. If that happens, the talent difference should eventually show up.

Lean: Virginia Tech -13.5

I’d be a little more comfortable at -12.5 or -13 because winning by exactly 14 feels extremely plausible, but I think Virginia Tech is the right side.

Prediction

This game scares me considerably less than Maryland.

Boston College will have some early success with McKenzie’s legs. O’Brien will scheme up something annoying. Virginia Tech will probably commit a penalty at the worst possible time because apparently that’s just part of the experience now. But over four quarters, I don’t think Boston College has enough.

Grunkemeyer is playing too efficiently. Reynolds is becoming one of the best tight ends in college football. Virginia Tech has more weapons. The defensive front should eventually force McKenzie into obvious passing situations, and that’s where I think the turnovers show up. Boston College hangs around for a half. Virginia Tech pulls away after halftime.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 34, Boston College 17

The Hokies move to 4-0 for the first time since 2017.

September 16, 2026September 16, 2026

Virginia Tech vs Maryland Preview and Prediction

Date & Time: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 7:30 p.m. ET
Location: SECU Stadium, College Park, Maryland
Broadcast: FS1
Records: Virginia Tech (2-0), Maryland (2-0)

Well, here we go. Virginia Tech spent the first two weeks of the James Franklin era beating the absolute hell out of teams it was supposed to beat. The Hokies beat VMI 73-3 and followed it up with a 44-21 win over Old Dominion that wasn’t really as close as the final score suggests.

Now we get to find out if Virginia Tech is actually good. The Hokies travel to College Park Saturday night for their first road game of the season against a Maryland team that is also 2-0. This is exactly the game I circled before the season as the first real measuring stick for Virginia Tech. VMI told us basically nothing. ODU told us considerably more. Maryland should tell us whether Virginia Tech is ready to start beating competent Power 4 football teams again.

And because college football apparently requires every game to have some sort of weird personal storyline, James Franklin is going back to Maryland. Franklin coached at Maryland under Ralph Friedgen, was once designated the program’s head-coach-in-waiting and then spent 12 years at Penn State routinely beating the Terps. Franklin went 9-2 against Maryland at Penn State, and his relationship with Mike Locksley hasn’t always exactly been warm and fuzzy.

So, yeah. This should be fun.

Virginia Tech Is 2-0, But Now It Matters

I don’t think you could have realistically asked for a much better start to the Franklin era.

Virginia Tech has scored 117 points in two games. Ethan Grunkemeyer looks like a legitimate Power 4 quarterback. The defensive line is creating pressure. Luke Reynolds looks like a potential star. Most importantly, Virginia Tech has looked like the better football team against teams it was supposed to be better than.

That sounds incredibly basic. It has also not always been incredibly basic around here. Against ODU, Grunkemeyer completed 31-of-42 passes for 327 yards and two touchdowns. Reynolds caught eight passes for 108 yards and two scores. Virginia Tech built a 34-6 halftime lead and essentially ended the game before everyone had finished their second stadium beer.

There were still problems. Virginia Tech ran for only 89 yards. There were penalties. The Hokies weren’t particularly efficient in the red zone. And after building that huge halftime lead, they got sloppy. You can get away with that against Old Dominion. You probably can’t get away with it Saturday night.

Maryland Is Pretty Good

Maryland has also done exactly what it was supposed to do. The Terps opened the season by destroying Hampton 62-0 and then went on the road and beat UConn 38-14. Maryland has now won 20 consecutive non-conference games, which is legitimately impressive regardless of who they’ve played.

The biggest concern for Virginia Tech is sophomore quarterback Malik Washington. Washington was outstanding against UConn, completing 34-of-41 passes for 347 yards and two touchdowns. At one point he completed 18 consecutive passes, and both Na’eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding and Chris Durr Jr. went over 100 receiving yards.

That’s a real passing attack. Virginia Tech hasn’t seen anything remotely like it yet. VMI couldn’t throw the football. ODU had some success, but Virginia Tech was able to dictate the game with its defensive front. Maryland is going to spread Virginia Tech out and make the secondary defend the entire field. This is where we start learning how good this defense actually is.

Ethan Grunkemeyer vs. Malik Washington

This might be the game. Two sophomore quarterbacks. Two former highly regarded recruits. Two guys who have looked really good through the first two weeks. Grunkemeyer has been almost exactly what Virginia Tech needed. He isn’t playing hero ball. He’s distributing the football, getting through his reads and taking what defenses give him. Against ODU he completed passes to 11 different receivers.

The biggest revelation has probably been Reynolds. Virginia Tech suddenly has a tight end who can become the centerpiece of the passing game. Reynolds is a matchup problem in the middle of the field, and Maryland is going to have to decide how much attention it wants to devote to him versus Ayden Greene and Virginia Tech’s receivers.

Washington presents a completely different problem for Virginia Tech. UConn tried to pressure him and play aggressively in coverage. Washington responded by getting the ball out quickly and letting his receivers create yards after the catch. Maryland generated 475 total yards against UConn, including 350 through the air.

Virginia Tech can’t give him easy completions all night. Make him hold the football. That’s where Mylachi Williams, Cortez Harris, Aycen Stevens and the rest of this defensive front become extremely important.

Virginia Tech Has to Run the Football

This is probably my biggest concern. Virginia Tech ran the ball extremely well against VMI. Then it basically disappeared against ODU.

The Hokies finished with only 89 rushing yards Saturday. Some of that was because ODU clearly committed resources to stopping the run and Virginia Tech correctly responded by throwing the football. Starting center Kyle Altuner was also unavailable.

That’s fine for one week. It can’t become a trend. Maryland’s defensive front just held UConn to 2.2 yards per carry and recorded five sacks. If Virginia Tech becomes completely one-dimensional Saturday, this gets considerably harder.

I’m not saying Marcellous Hawkins and Jeffrey Overton need to combine for 200 yards. They don’t. But Virginia Tech needs enough of a running game that Maryland has to respect play action and can’t spend the entire night trying to make Grunkemeyer beat pressure on third-and-8. Give me 140-150 rushing yards and I’ll feel pretty good about Virginia Tech’s chances.

Virginia Tech’s Pass Rush vs. Maryland’s Offensive Line

This is the matchup I’m most interested in watching. Virginia Tech’s defensive line looks considerably faster than it did a year ago. The Hokies recorded five sacks against ODU, and Williams, Harris and Stevens were consistently disruptive.

Maryland allowed only one sack against UConn. Something has to give. Washington completed more than 80% of his passes against UConn because he was comfortable. Virginia Tech cannot allow him to sit back there and play seven-on-seven.

Pressure him without blitzing. If Virginia Tech can consistently get pressure with four, Brent Pry can keep extra defenders in coverage and make Washington work through tighter windows. That’s probably the defensive formula.

Key Statistical Matchups

Maryland passing offense vs. Virginia Tech secondary

This is easily the biggest test Virginia Tech’s secondary has faced. Washington just threw for 347 yards while completing 83% of his passes against UConn. Gladding had 130 receiving yards, and Maryland had two receivers eclipse 100 yards.

Virginia Tech doesn’t necessarily need to shut that down. It needs to prevent the easy stuff from becoming explosive plays. Tackle. Make Maryland put together 10-play drives. Eventually the pass rush should create an opportunity for a sack, holding penalty or turnover.

Virginia Tech rushing offense vs. Maryland run defense

Virginia Tech: 89 rushing yards against ODU. Maryland: 2.2 yards per carry allowed against UConn. Not ideal! The Hokies don’t need to dominate this matchup, but they cannot lose it badly.

Third down

This feels like one of those games where third down will tell the story. If Virginia Tech consistently gets Maryland into third-and-7, the defensive line has a chance to take over. If Maryland is living in third-and-2 because Washington is completing six-yard passes on first down, it’s going to be a long night.

Same thing offensively. Keep Grunkemeyer out of obvious passing situations. Very complicated analysis here.

The James Franklin Factor

Normally I wouldn’t spend much time talking about coaching history in a game preview. This one is different.

Franklin has an extensive history with Maryland. He coached there twice, was supposed to eventually replace Ralph Friedgen and then spent more than a decade at Penn State turning Maryland into one of his favorite punching bags.

He went 9-2 against Maryland as Penn State’s head coach.

There was also the 2024 game when Penn State scored a late touchdown in a 44-7 win and Locksley publicly criticized Franklin afterward. Franklin basically responded that his job was to score points. So I don’t think these guys are exchanging Christmas cards.

I also don’t think Franklin is going to let Virginia Tech walk into this game unprepared. This is the advantage of hiring someone who has coached big road games before. Virginia Tech is going into a night game against a Power 4 opponent with a coaching staff that understands exactly what that environment looks like.

SP+ / FPI

This is much closer to a true toss-up than either of Virginia Tech’s first two games. That shouldn’t be surprising. Before the season, I had Maryland listed as one of Virginia Tech’s toss-up games and specifically called it the first game where we’d actually learn something about this team. That hasn’t changed.

Virginia Tech entered the season around the mid-30s nationally in both SP+ and FPI. The early results should improve the Hokies’ profile, but Maryland has also exceeded expectations through two weeks.

The computers aren’t going to see an enormous difference between these teams. And neither do I. This feels like a one-score game.

What I’m Looking For

This is the first time this season where I’m not just looking at how Virginia Tech wins. I just want them to win.

Can Grunkemeyer play the same way on the road that he’s played in Lane Stadium?

Can Virginia Tech run the football against a legitimate Power 4 defensive front?

Can the defensive line make Malik Washington uncomfortable?

Can the secondary tackle Maryland’s receivers in space?

Can Virginia Tech finally stop committing unnecessary penalties?

And can James Franklin win his first road game as Virginia Tech’s head coach?

Virginia Tech doesn’t have to win this game to have a successful season. But this is exactly the kind of game Virginia Tech eventually needs to start winning again.

Maryland isn’t Ohio State.

They’re not Georgia.

They’re not Clemson.

They’re a solid Power 4 football program playing at home. If Virginia Tech wants to become nationally relevant again, you have to beat teams like Maryland.

Prediction

I don’t think this is easy. Maryland is better than either team Virginia Tech has played. Washington is going to make plays. The Terps will probably hit a couple of explosive passes, and I don’t expect Virginia Tech to build another 28-point halftime lead.

But I trust Virginia Tech’s defensive front. I also trust Grunkemeyer considerably more than I expected to at this point in the season. That’s ultimately the difference for me.

Virginia Tech gets enough pressure on Washington to force a turnover or two. Grunkemeyer continues to efficiently distribute the football. Reynolds makes another handful of big catches, and Virginia Tech finally gets a little more production from the running game.

It’ll be uncomfortable. It’ll probably be stupid at some point. It’s Virginia Tech football. But Franklin goes back to College Park and gets the win.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 31, Maryland 27

Virginia Tech moves to 3-0. And then things start getting interesting.

At a Glance

Virginia Tech Offense vs. Stanford Defense

Virginia Tech Defense vs. Stanford Offense

Special Teams

Three Keys to the Game

1. Run the Damn Football

2. Don’t Let Stanford Hang Around

3. Get the Defense Back on Track

The Betting Line

Prediction

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The Big Picture

A Look at SMU

By the Numbers

When Virginia Tech Has the Ball

When SMU Has the Ball

Three Keys to the Game

1. Get Pressure on Kevin Jennings

2. Establish Something Resembling a Running Game

3. Win the Turnover Battle

Players to Watch

Betting Preview

Prediction

Final Thoughts

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1. James Franklin Has Already Changed the Expectations

2. The Offense Is Better Than I Expected

3. The Defense Still Makes Me Nervous

4. Special Teams Have Been Anything But Special

5. The Clemson Win Was Important, Even If Clemson Isn’t Clemson Anymore

6. The ACC Is Still There for the Taking — Sort Of

8. What Would Make This Season a Success?

9. The Bye Week Couldn’t Have Come at a Better Time

10. Sticking With My Prediction: 8-4

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Virginia Tech vs. Clemson

Clemson Isn’t the Clemson We Remember

Virginia Tech’s Offense Has a Significant Advantage

Feed Jeffrey Overton

Virginia Tech’s Defense Needs to Take Advantage

The Death Valley Factor

Keys to the Game

Final Prediction

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Georgia Tech vs. Virginia Tech

What Happened to the 4-0 Hokies?

The Offense: Grunkemeyer Continues to Produce

The Special Teams: A Growing Concern

Meet the Yellow Jackets

Alberto Mendoza and the Georgia Tech Offense

Georgia Tech’s Defense Is a Problem

Feed Jeffrey Overton

Can Virginia Tech’s Defense Finally Finish a Game?

SP+ and the Analytics

Betting Analysis

Keys to the Game

Final Prediction

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The First Six Games

Offense: A Significant Improvement

Defense: Still a Work in Progress

Coaching Staff: The Honeymoon Is Over

Midseason Awards

The Remaining Schedule

Tough Games (Less Than 40% Chance to Win)

Toss-Up Games

Should Win Games (Greater Than 60% Chance to Win)

Keys to the Second Half

Final Prediction: 7-5

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Moving On From Pitt

Meet the Golden Bears

Who Is Playing Quarterback for Cal?

Feed Jeffrey Overton

Ethan Grunkemeyer Should Have Opportunities

The Cross-Country Factor

SP+ Likes Virginia Tech

Betting Analysis

Three Keys to the Game

The Pick