Tag: pittsburgh

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Virginia Tech vs. Pitt Preview: Friday Night in Blacksburg

Well, here we are. Virginia Tech is 4-0. Pitt is 4-0. Both teams are 1-0 in the ACC. And on Friday night, under the lights in a sold-out Lane Stadium, somebody is leaving with their first loss of the season.

After surviving the remnants of a hurricane in Chestnut Hill last weekend, Virginia Tech returns home for what is easily the biggest game of the James Franklin era so far.

Pitt at Virginia Tech
Friday, October 2 — 7:00 PM ET
Lane Stadium — Blacksburg, VA
TV: ESPN

Virginia Tech’s 21-14 win over Boston College wasn’t particularly pretty. The Hokies trailed 14-6 in the fourth quarter, the passing game struggled in ridiculous weather conditions, and for the first time this season Tech found itself legitimately staring at a loss. Then Jeffrey Overton happened.

Overton finished with 209 rushing yards, including a 76-yard fourth-quarter touchdown that put Virginia Tech ahead for good. The performance earned him ACC Running Back of the Week honors and pushed his season average to 102.3 rushing yards per game, second-best in the conference.

The result was important for reasons beyond getting to 4-0. Virginia Tech had blown out VMI and Old Dominion and controlled most of the Maryland game. Boston College was different. Things went wrong. Tech fell behind. The weather eliminated a big chunk of the offense. And the Hokies still found a way to win. Now the difficulty level goes up considerably.

Meet the Panthers

Pitt enters Blacksburg at 4-0 after absolutely vaporizing Bucknell 59-0. The Panthers produced a school-record 766 yards of offense, including 574 passing yards, while tying the ACC record with eight touchdown passes. That’s probably worth mentioning.

Pitt is averaging 39.3 points and 523.8 yards per game, including 347.3 through the air. Defensively, the Panthers have been even more impressive, allowing only 8.5 points and 244.5 yards per game. They’ve held every opponent to 14 points or fewer. There is, however, an enormous asterisk attached to those numbers.

Pitt has played all four games at home, and Friday night represents its first road game of the season. More importantly, quarterback Mason Heintschel’s eye-popping touchdown numbers have largely been accumulated against lesser competition; as of Monday, none of his 13 touchdown passes had come against a Power Four defense. So Friday night should tell us considerably more about both teams.

The Mason Heintschel Problem

If there’s one player Virginia Tech fans should know before Friday night, it’s Pitt quarterback Mason Heintschel. The sophomore has completed 67.7% of his passes for 1,191 yards, 13 touchdowns and just one interception. Against Bucknell, he went nuclear: 403 yards and six touchdowns without throwing an interception.

Pitt also has legitimate receiving depth. Thirteen different Panthers caught a pass against Bucknell, and five caught touchdowns.

This isn’t an offense where Virginia Tech can simply take away one receiver. The encouraging part for Tech is that Brent Pry’s defense has generally done a good job preventing traditional rushing attacks from taking over games. Pitt averages 176.5 rushing yards per game, but the matchup Virginia Tech really needs to win is obvious:

Make Pitt earn everything through the air while getting pressure on Heintschel.

The worst possible scenario is allowing Pitt to establish the run, stay ahead of the chains and let Heintschel operate comfortably off play action. Friday night needs to be the first time this season that the sophomore quarterback looks uncomfortable. Lane Stadium can help with that.

Pitt’s Defense Is Legit

This is also easily the best defense Virginia Tech has faced. Pitt is giving up only 53.3 rushing yards per game and 244.5 total yards per game. Opponents are averaging just 4.2 yards per play.

That’s where the Jeffrey Overton matchup becomes fascinating. Virginia Tech just rode Overton through a monsoon for 209 yards against Boston College. He’s averaging more than 100 yards per game and has emerged as one of the most explosive players in the ACC.

Pitt knows exactly what’s coming. Pat Narduzzi specifically praised Virginia Tech’s offensive line and Overton this week and described defending Tech’s rushing attack as a “chess match.” He also pointed out the multiple tempos Virginia Tech uses offensively and the different ways the Hokies deploy tight end Luke Reynolds. This is where Ethan Grunkemeyer becomes important.

Time for Grunkemeyer to Make Some Plays

I’m willing to throw most of the Boston College passing numbers into the Atlantic Ocean. Grunkemeyer finished with just 147 passing yards, but trying to evaluate a passing game played in rain with winds approaching 40 mph is mostly pointless.

Before that game, we’d seen what this passing attack could do. Grunkemeyer threw for 327 yards against Old Dominion and 314 against Maryland. Luke Reynolds topped 100 receiving yards in both games.

Virginia Tech probably isn’t running for 250 yards against Pitt. That means there are going to be moments Friday night when Grunkemeyer has to make a throw on third-and-7. Those are the plays that could determine the game.

If Pitt has to respect Grunkemeyer, Reynolds, Que’Sean Brown and the rest of Virginia Tech’s passing attack, Overton becomes considerably more dangerous. If the Panthers can load the box and turn Virginia Tech one-dimensional? That’s a problem.

The Lane Stadium Factor

This isn’t just another home game. It’s Friday night. It’s a sellout. It’s a Stripe Effect game. It’s two undefeated ACC teams. And Pitt hasn’t played a road game this season.

Even Narduzzi acknowledged this week that Blacksburg will be one of the loudest environments Pitt encounters all season and that the noise will require adjustments to communication and snap counts.

That’s significant because Pitt hasn’t had to deal with anything remotely resembling this environment in 2026. Virginia Tech needs to weaponize that immediately.

Get Pitt into a third-and-long on the opening possession. Force a false start. Make Heintschel burn a timeout. Make a young quarterback communicate with 65,000 people screaming at him while Enter Sandman is still rattling around his skull. That’s home-field advantage.

SP+ Says This Is Basically a Toss-Up

This is where things get interesting.

Current SP+ data has Pitt around No. 20 nationally and Virginia Tech around No. 28. On a neutral field, the model views Pitt as roughly 2.4 points better.

Move the game to Lane Stadium, however, and SP+ projects essentially a coin flip: Virginia Tech by 0.6 points, with roughly a 51% win probability.

That’s substantially different from the betting market. And I tend to think SP+ has the right idea about the closeness of this matchup. Pitt’s statistical profile is excellent. But Virginia Tech has already played two Power Four opponents away from home, while Pitt hasn’t left Pittsburgh. Friday should tell us whether those Panthers numbers are real.

Betting Analysis

The market opened with Virginia Tech around a 5.5-point favorite, although the line has moved around depending on the sportsbook. As of September 28, books were showing Tech anywhere from roughly -3.5 to -6, with totals generally in the low-to-mid 50s.

That’s a pretty significant disagreement between the market and the analytics. SP+ essentially says pick ’em with Virginia Tech receiving a small home-field edge. Another independent power-rating model made Virginia Tech only about a half-point favorite after accounting for Lane Stadium.

So if you’re laying close to a touchdown with Virginia Tech, you’re making a pretty strong statement that Lane Stadium, Pitt’s untested schedule and Tech’s offensive ceiling matter more than the underlying efficiency numbers.

I’m much more comfortable with Virginia Tech around -3 than I am around -6. The total is also interesting. Pitt’s defense hasn’t allowed more than 14 points all season, while Virginia Tech is averaging 43.3 points per game. Something has to give. I don’t think this turns into a 45-42 shootout.

Three Keys to the Game

1. Make Heintschel uncomfortable

He’s thrown 13 touchdowns and one interception because he’s largely been operating from clean situations. Virginia Tech needs to change that. Pressure him, disguise coverages and make him prove he can execute in a hostile road environment.

2. Stay patient with Overton

Pitt’s rushing-defense numbers are ridiculous. That doesn’t mean Virginia Tech should abandon the run if Overton has 24 yards after eight carries. Eventually, he’s going to get an opportunity. Boston College learned that lesson approximately 76 yards too late.

3. Win third down

This feels like a game where five or six plays will determine the outcome. Third-and-medium situations are going to be enormous. Virginia Tech can’t continually give Heintschel extra possessions, and Grunkemeyer is going to have to convert some uncomfortable third downs against the best defense he’s faced.

The Pick

This is the first game on Virginia Tech’s schedule where I can legitimately talk myself into either team winning. Pitt might be really good.

The Panthers have been dominant statistically. Their defense has been outstanding. Heintschel looks like a legitimate ACC quarterback. And Pat Narduzzi has certainly had success against Virginia Tech before — Pitt has won three of the past four meetings. But Friday night is an entirely different test. Pitt has spent the first month of the season at home.

Now a sophomore quarterback has to walk into a sold-out Lane Stadium at night against an undefeated Virginia Tech team that just discovered it can take a punch and keep fighting. I think the game stays close into the fourth quarter. Overton breaks one. Grunkemeyer makes a couple of throws when Virginia Tech absolutely has to have them. And the defense forces Heintschel into his first major mistake of the season.

Virginia Tech 27, Pitt 23

Hokies move to 5-0.

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2024 ACC Football Preseason Predictions

This week we are doing ACC preseason predictions from our favorite Hokie podcast and Twitter personalities. We have preseason picks from Twitter personality OXVT (@OX_VT), Brian Seigla (@seigs5052) from the Boundary Corner Podcast, and Pete B. (@petebvt) from the Two Deep Podcast. We are also joined by ACC contributors Casey (Clemson) and Dirty Bird (Miami) with their picks for the 2024 ACC football season.

Treadmillhorse (@treadmillhorse)OX_VT
(@OX_VT)		Brian Seigla
(@seig5052)

11-1
11-1
11-1

10-2
10-2
10-2

10-2
9-3
9-3

9-3
8-4
9-3

9-3
9-3
8-4

9-3
8-4
8-4

8-4
8-4
8-4

8-4
8-4
7-5

6-6
8-4
7-5

5-7
7-5
6-6

5-7
6-6
6-6

5-7
6-6
6-6

5-7
4-8
5-7

4-8
5-7
5-7

4-8
5-7
5-7

3-9
4-8
3-9

3-9
3-9
3-9
ACC OPOYCam Ward, MiamiPreston Stone, SMUKyron Drones, Virginia Tech
ACC DPOYBarrett Carter, ClemsonAshton Gillotte, LouisvilleBarrett Carter, Clemson
ACC CoachDave Doeren, NC StateRhett Lashlee, SMUBrent Pry, Virginia Tech
Champ GameClemson / Florida StateClemson / SMUClemson / Florida State
ChampionClemsonClemsonFlorida State
Pete B.
(@petebvt)		Casey
(@FromSluggo)		DIRTY BIRD
(@dirtyyybird)

10-2
11-1
11-1

9-3
10-2
10-2

9-3
10-2
8-4

9-3
9-3
8-4

9-3
9-3
8-4

9-3
9-3
8-4

7-5
8-4
7-5

7-5
8-4
7-5

7-5
7-5
7-5

6-6
7-5
6-6

6-6
6-6
6-6

6-6
6-6
5-7

5-7
5-7
4-8

4-8
3-9
4-8

4-8
3-9
4-8

4-8
3-9
3-9

4-8
2-10
3-9
ACC OPOYKyron Drones, Virginia TechPhil Mafah, ClemsonCam Ward, Miami
ACC DPOYFrancisco Mauigoa, MiamiAshton Gillotte, LouisvilleRueben Bain, Miami
ACC CoachBrent Pry, Virginia TechBrent Pry, Virginia TechBrent Pry, Virginia Tech
Champ GameFlorida State / Virginia TechClemson / Florida StateMiami / Virginia Tech
ChampionFlorida StateClemsonMiami

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Pittsburgh vs Virginia Tech Preview and Prediction

This team does good things in stretches but not consistently enough. The offense is good for 2-3 good drives per game. And the defense is generally good aside from a couple of big plays per game. Consistency is what this team needs to find. Until then, unfortunately, it’s going to be difficult to win football games.

Good drives defensively against Marshall

Good drives offensively against Marshall

SP+ Rankings

Virginia Tech

Overall: 80th
Offense: 97th
Defense: 54th
Special Teams: 51st

Pittsburgh

Overall: 53rd
Offense: 62nd
Defense: 46th
Special Teams: 86th


Pitt is struggling offensively. They are having the same type of offensive season as Virginia Tech. It’s been difficult for Pitt to run or pass this season. The good news for them is that Virginia Tech has one of the worst run defenses in the country. If Pitt just keeps the ball on the ground and feeds Rodney Hammond, he should have a big day. Expect big numbers from him on Saturday.

As usual, Pitt is an excellent defensive team. This is the big matchup problem on Saturday, Pitt’s defense going up against VT’s offense. Pitt does not give up many yards through the air, so Tech will have to keep the ball on the ground. Once again, they will need to get creative with their play calling to create space in the run game. The Hokies should consider misdirection and option plays to slow down the Pitt defense. Draw plays and inside runs will not cut it this week against this stout defense.

I don’t like the matchup of Pitt’s defense vs Virginia Tech’s offense. That seems like a huge mismatch. Tech has had trouble getting yards on the ground the past 3 weeks and this is will be an even bigger challenge. My guess is that the Pitt offense won’t have to do a lot on Saturday. The Pitt defense will deliver short fields and as long as Pitt can keep the ball on the ground, they should find some yards and points. Don’t expect a lot of yards from quarterback Phil Jurkovec, but Rodney Hammond will have a big day and deliver a win for the Panthers. I see this game going like the Rutgers game, close early with Pitt pulling away in the 2nd half.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 31, Virginia Tech 17

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Pittsburgh Q&A with The Loyal Sons

This week we are joined by Pittsburgh athletics podcast The Loyal Sons. You can follow them on Twitter at @TheLoyalSons. You can also check out their podcast here.

Tell us about yourself and your podcast.

We’re three lifelong Pitt fans. Through thick and thin, we’re die-hard fans. In 2018, we had the idea to make a Twitter account where we could collectively share our thoughts on Pitt athletics… but mostly jokes and memes. We gained a pretty decent following and in the summer of 2021, we made the decision to give podcasting a shot. Pitt having their best season in centuries certainly helped, but fast forward three years and we’re going strong. We’re far from journalists, but we offer the Pitt fan perspective in a unique way that speaks to the heart of Yinzers the nation-over.

What are your thoughts on Pitt so far this year?

Really good. And by really good I mean worse than we could have ever imagined. Phil Jurkovec looks atrocious and that kind of threw our entire offense out of whack. We have a good run game and Rodney Hammond is a dog but when that’s your entire offense and you’re constantly playing from behind, you’re in trouble. Frank Cignetti’s seat is about as hot as it can get. Both he and Phil have been dreadful. Gavin Bartholomew is a top tight end in the country but we can’t get him the ball more than twice a game. Our defense is still pretty good (I think) so they’ll keep us in games against other not-great teams.     


How has the Pitt program changed in the last five years?

Kenny Pickett helps. It’s tough to think about now but prior to this season, we felt REALLY good about the trajectory of the team. We followed up an ACC Championship with a 9-win season capped off by a Sun Bowl victory. Pat Narduzzi has been recruiting at a high level for Pitt standards too so the future looked bright. This team might be a solid QB away from being a 9ish win team on the field. Frank Cignetti’s 2006 playcalling and offensive scheme is not it, and there are very legitimate fears we could be squandering the program’s momentum by going conservative on offense.

What are your thoughts on having Virginia Tech assigned as a permanent ACC rival? 

I won’t complain about biennial trips to Blacksburg. Also, with all due respect, 2003 Frank Beamer isn’t walking through that door any time soon, so Pitt hasn’t exactly been assigned a guaranteed annual loss with this pairing. It’s a fun game that could become a fun rivalry between two programs that can consistently compete with each other. Even if we’ve kind of owned you since 2020 (editor’s note: send your hate mail to LoyalSonsEmail@gmail.com).

Do you view Virginia Tech as a rival program? 

We like them as an in-conference rival. You’ll never reach PSU/WVU level but that’s maybe a good thing. We despise them and they are insufferable. We used to hate VT but that was mostly because of the stretch when VT was overrated by the media. We’re pretty similar programs in a lot of ways so I think each fanbase gets that. 

What is your outlook for the future of the ACC?

It’s bad. I mean, I’m glad they expanded and added Cal and Stanford, and I’m very intrigued by the SMU addition. But I think it’s clear the conference’s most valuable assets are just waiting out the Grant of Rights until it’s fiscally feasible to bolt, and a couple primetime games on The CW won’t change that. Clemson, FSU, Miami, and UNC will take off for the SEC and B1G, and the rest of us will be left to scramble for whatever spots remain in the Big 12 – accepting whatever discount they require of us. In the long-run, I wouldn’t hate if the ACC took the Big 12’s realignment approach after the biggest programs get poached: add the most fun remaining G5 teams and at least build an entertaining mid-tier league. Tulane, JMU, App St, Coastal, ECU, WKU, etc. are all fun and  there for the taking.

What conference do you see Pitt belonging to in the next 5-10 years?

Honestly, whoever will take us. We’ll be content if we aren’t in the AAC or some irrelevant conference. The B1G and Big 12 both make sense because of our rivals WVU and PSU (although they’re delusional and don’t consider us rivals). More than likely we’ll end up in the Big 12 or a watered-down version of the ACC.

What are your expectations for the Virginia Tech game?

U-G-L-Y. Bad QB play. Probably general sloppiness. No matter who comes out on top both fan bases will leave Lane Stadium disgusted by what they watched. I do think our defense is still pretty solid and will win us this game. Maybe first to 14 wins. I’m guessing Phil Jurkovec will start. We did just spend most of this Q&A bashing him but after he left the game due to injury at halftime against UNC, our backup Christian Veilleux somehow managed to look worse.

What’s your prediction for the game?

17-13 Pitt

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2023 ACC Football Preseason Predictions

This week we are doing ACC preseason predictions from our favorite Hokie podcast and Twitter personalities. We are joined by @OX_VT, @PeteBVT from the Two Deep Podcast, Brian Seigla from the Boundary Corner Podcast, Dan (@Visionary_SZN) from the Tales from the Terrordome Podcast, @DriftVT from the @VT4L Podcast and Hokie Pharmacist from Main Street Pharmacy with their picks for the 2023 ACC football season.

Treadmillhorse (@treadmillhorse)
12-0
10-2
10-2
8-4
8-4
8-4
7-5
7-5
6-6
6-6
5-7
5-7
3-9
2-10
ACC Offensive Player of the YearDrake Maye
ACC Defensive Player of the YearJeremiah Trotter Jr.
ACC Coach of the YearPat Narduzzi
ACC Title Winner
OX_VT (@OX_VT)
10-2
9-3
9-3
9-3
8-4
8-4
8-4
7-5
6-6
6-6
5-7
4-8
4-8
2-10
ACC Offensive Player of the YearBrennan Armstrong
ACC Defensive Player of the YearJeremiah Trotter Jr.
ACC Coach of the YearBrent Pry
ACC Title Winner
Pete B. (@PeteBVT)
from the Two Deep Podcast
11-1
11-1
8-4
8-4
8-4
7-5
7-5
7-5
7-5
6-6
6-6
5-7
4-8
2-10
ACC Offensive Player of the YearWill Shipley
ACC Defensive Player of the YearJared Verse
ACC Coach of the YearMike Norvell
ACC Title Winner
Brian Seigla (@Seig5052)
from the Boundary Corner Podcast
12-0
10-2
9-3
9-3
8-4
8-4
7-5
7-5
7-5
6-6
5-7
4-8
4-8
2-10

ACC Offensive Player of the YearDrake Maye
ACC Defensive Player of the YearJared Verse
ACC Coach of the YearMike Norvell
ACC Title Winner
Dan (@Visionary_SZN)
from the Tales from the TerrorDome Podcast
10-2
9-3
9-3
8-4
8-4
7-5
7-5
7-5
6-6
6-6
5-7
4-8
3-9
2-10

ACC Offensive Player of the YearBrennan Armstrong
ACC Defensive Player of the YearJared Verse
ACC Coach of the YearMike Norvell
ACC Title Winner
@DriftVT
from the @VT4L Podcast
11-1
9-3
9-3
8-4
7-5
7-5
7-5
6-6
6-6
6-6
6-6
4-8
3-9
2-10

ACC Offensive Player of the YearJordan Travis
ACC Defensive Player of the YearJeremiah Trotter Jr.
ACC Coach of the YearMario Cristobal
ACC Title Winner
Hokie Pharmacist (@HokiePharmacist) *
12-0*
12-0
10-2
9-3
9-3
9-3
8-4
8-4
7-5
5-7
5-7
4-8
4-8
0-12

ACC Offensive Player of the YearGrant Wells*
ACC Defensive Player of the YearDrake Maye*
ACC Coach of the YearDave Clawson
ACC Title Winner

* See the full Hokie Pharmacist Twitter thread here:

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Pittsburgh vs Virginia Tech Preview and Prediction

The offense has been bad for two straight weeks against not-so-great defenses. I respect that Brent Pry wants to instill his culture but he also has to find a way to make the offense work. In the first half, the Hokies put together a couple of nice drives (see the video tweets below). Unfortunately, they couldn’t keep up that level of consistency throughout the game. But you can see glimpses of an offense that is maybe starting to put things together.

https://twitter.com/All_Things_VT/status/1577152794028449792
https://twitter.com/All_Things_VT/status/1577156577605259264

SP+ Rankings

Virginia Tech

Overall: 87th
Offense: 118th
Defense: 35th
Special Teams: 30th

Pittsburgh

Overall: 45th
Offense: 22nd
Defense: 76th
Special Teams: 121st

Pittsburgh has an efficient offense. Not as good as WVU or UNC’s but still pretty solid. Like those two teams, they are well balanced running and passing the ball. They have a running back to can pick up big chunk plays and a quarterback who doesn’t make many mistakes. A lot like WVU, this is an offense that can nickle and dime you all the way downfield. The Hokies defense will need to find ways to get off the field on third down. They held up well for three quarters against West Virginia. Now, they’ll to find a way to do it for 60 minutes — with a little help from the offense.

This looks like a traditional Pitt defense. Good not great. They are good at defending the pass and not as good at defending the run. With VT’s run blocking I’m not sure that matters much. Teams with good offenses have had success against this defense. Even Georgia Tech’s putrid offense was able to put up 26 points on Pitt. That might be an outlier but still, this defense has it’s weaknesses. It’s all a matter of if the Hokies can exploit any of them.

I’ve started to go into how-many-points-will-Tech-lose-by mode. For me, it’s less about wins and losses this year and more about showing improvement week-to-week. The defense is about what I expected. The offense is far worse than I expected. But teams rarely stay exactly the same all year long. There are ebbs and flows. I’m hoping as the weeks go by, we start seeing some more life from this offense. Until then, I’m in wait-and-see mode. I’m not going to pick Tech to score more than 10 points in a P5 game until they prove they can.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 33, Virginia Tech 10

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Pittsburgh Q&A with The Loyal Sons

This week we are joined by Pittsburgh podcast The Loyal Sons. You can follow them on Twitter (@TheLoyalSons) and listen to their podcast here.

Tell us about yourself and your podcast. 

John “Squid” Cotton, 26

Dylan Mitchell, 26

David Haddad, 27

The Loyal Sons started as Dylan’s burner account under the name “Capel Faithful”, honoring the new savior of Pitt Basketball. While Jeff Capel’s tenure has not exactly been a success, the Twitter account was able to gather a surprising following. As a group of dudes in our mid-20s, modern social mores demanded that we then start a podcast. And so in September of 2021, The Loyal Sons Show was born.

While none of us could break down an All-22 to save our lives, we take pride in capturing the zeitgeist of Pitt Football fandom better than anyone: snake-bitten, yet relentlessly hopeful. Reactionary, but surprisingly patient. And above all, emotionally dependent on Kenny Pickett.

Tell us about your team this year. What are your thoughts on Pitt so far this season?

If we only had one word to describe the theme of Pitt’s first four games, it would be “injuries”. To date, 14 players on Pitt’s 2-deep have missed time, many of whom are crucial pieces with huge expectations. Plugging so many holes has forced Coach Narduzzi to play conservatively against overmatched opponents, This has resulted in unnecessarily close games, including this past weekend’s absolute meltdown against GT – the worst loss of the Narduzzi era. The game plan has been simple: run the ball, do the bare minimum to win, get back on the bus with as many guys as stepped off of it, and get healthy for the meat of conference play. But now we’re 0-1 in the ACC and getting completely (and fairly) written off, so a lot of good that did us.

Pitt fans will tell you we know very little about this team. It felt like all the pieces were there for an ACC Championship contender (or better) until Saturday’s loss. This defense has the potential to be one of the better units in the country once it gets both starting DEs and its Top CB back and in a rhythm. The offense should be capable of more than its paltry output thus far. This team could still be dangerous down the stretch. Or they might totally suck. We just don’t know yet.

How have Pitt fans responded to winning the ACC last season? 

Pitt fans couldn’t have dreamt of a season like 2021. Older fans thought they would die without ever having seen something like it again. Truly a magical ride that will never be forgotten.

Then came 2022 and the dream became an expectation. We went from praying for a 10-win season to getting greedy about rankings and playoff buzz. We came into the season feeling disrespected about the narratives that have surrounded this team. All we heard was “No Kenny, no Addison, no Whipple.” We became an afterthought despite returning everyone in the building but those three. It gave everyone – players, coaches, and fans – a bit of a chip on their shoulders. But the disrespect may have been for good reason.

This season is viewed as a make-or-break for the program. It’s massively important for Pitt to build on last season’s success if it ever wants to return to the glory of the 70’s and 80’s. Kenny Pickett opened a window, and Pat Narduzzi needs capitalize on it. Because we can’t go back to the fucking Sun Bowl.

What are your thoughts on having Virginia Tech added as a permanent rival after this season? 

We’re pretty pumped about it. Pitt hasn’t really developed many “true” rivalries since it came to the ACC, so this could be a huge opportunity. VT and Miami feel like the closest thing Pitt has, given their shared histories in the Big East. The increased familiarity could be big for this rivalry, considering we’ve barely played 20 times.

Also, pretty pumped to get to come to Blacksburg more. Cool town, good food, Enter Sandman, etc.

Do you view Virginia Tech as a rival program? 

We dislike Virginia Tech. It seems like Virginia Tech dislikes Pitt (or at least Pat Narduzzi). We play yinz every year and it always feels like a meaningful game. But The Loyal Sons don’t loathe Virginia Tech. We loathe Penn State. We loathe West Virginia. For VT, it just isn’t there yet.

But it could be! It would be good for both programs for this matchup to grow in importance. The new scheduling wrinkle is going to go a very long way in making that happen. But we also all bear some individual responsibility in pouring a little more gasoline on the fire. So screw you, Treadmill Horse. What kind of name even is that?

What’s your favorite memory from the rivalry? 

Not just our favorite Pitt-VT memory, but one of our favorite football memories, period…

Lousaka Polite’s go-ahead touchdown to put #25 Pitt over the top against #5 VT in 2003. All three of us consider it our earliest memory of watching Pitt Football.

The matchup between Pitt and VT at Heinz Field in 2018 is a fan favorite too. Pitt controlled their own destiny to win the ACC Coastal, and for that reason, Pitt fans were expecting the worst. Plot-twist, Pitt wins by 30 and nearly ran for 500 yards. We still talk about Qadree Ollison stiff-arming Caleb Farley on his 97-yard TD run to this day.

But if you want a least favorite memory, we have one that’s a bit more favorable to your side. In 2019, we rolled about 20 people deep to Blacksburg to watch the Hokies go up 28-0 before halftime in an absolute downpour. We didn’t stay much past that point. Our last memory leaving the stadium was hearing the PA man announce Paris Ford’s targeting ejection. Salt in the wound. 

What’s your outlook on the future of the ACC? 

The ACC is in a pretty stable place despite how un-sexy it’s been for like 10 years. The Grant of Rights ties all 14 teams to the conference until 2036 save a majority of schools vote to nullify it and leave. But that would almost require all of the other power conferences in CFB to coordinate together to divy up the 8+ most attractive programs in the ACC, recruit them, whip the votes, and then negotiate their exit – all behind closed doors. 

So that doesn’t seem likely. But that doesn’t do jack for the value or respectability of the ACC in the meantime. The ACC needs to be proactive about the changing winds of college football. And that starts with picking off some desirable brands from the PAC12, Big 12, and maybe even some G5 powers. Realignment is going to continue, and a P5 conference is likely to crash and burn and be picked apart by the vultures circling overhead. It would be easy for the ACC to fall behind if it doesn’t make moves ASAP. Do it for pride, do it for the TV money. Whatever. Just do it.

On top of that, the big brands of the ACC need to stop being pathetic. What the hell happened to Florida State and Miami? Hell, even GT and VT aren’t what they were 20 years ago (rich coming from Pitt fans, we know). We can’t lean on the GoR to survive. At some point, we have to do football good.

What are your expectations for the Virginia Tech game? 

Brent Pry is in a true Year 0. Justin Fuente left the cabinet pretty bare, and in theory there’s a not-insignificant talent deficit between these two teams. Pry has all the resources to build something special in the Commonwealth, but that doesn’t do you much good this season.

We said the same about Georgia Tech though, and we all saw how that ended up. So maybe coaching and preparation might have something to do with wins and losses as well. It doesn’t matter how much deeper we think Pitt is if they keep coming out in a tight 2-WR set on 3rd & long and either running a draw or eating a bad coverage sack. 

VT has the defensive power to keep this game slow and sluggish to start, but at the end of the day, I think Pitt pulls it out because there’s a few starters and coordinators whose jobs might depend on it.

What’s your prediction for the game?

Before the GT game we said Pitt wins 34-10. But now we’re sad and angry so we predict 17-10. Neither team’s offense is going anywhere right now.

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Pittsburgh vs. Virginia Tech Preview and Prediction

The Notre Dame game was a tough pill to swallow. The Hokies were so close to putting that game away but couldn’t make the plays in crunch time. Every year there are going to be close games and those games are the difference between good seasons and great seasons. So far, the Hokies are 1-2 in those games. That needs to improve as the Hokies get into conference play.

SP+ Rankings

Virginia Tech

Overall: 49th
Offense: 50th
Defense: 46th
Special Teams: 56th

Pittsburgh

Overall: 10th
Offense: 9th
Defense: 27th
Special Teams: 15th

Kenny Pickett may be the best QB the Hokies see this season. He may not be the highest pick in the draft but he is putting up the best numbers at the college level. Pickett is one of the best in the nation in passing yards, passing TDs and passing efficiency. Virginia Tech has had trouble over the years with NFL-caliber quarterbacks. Kenny Pickett definitely fits that description. The Hokies defensive backs and linebackers better bring their A-game because Pickett is going to be tough to stop.

The Pitt rushing defense will be able to stop the run and make the Hokies one-dimensional. Tech will have to throw to move the ball against Pitt which means winning battles in one-on-one coverage. Braxton Burmeister is going to have to be able to throw the ball up and hope his receiver comes down with it. So far this year, the Hokies haven’t been winning many of those battles when the ball is in the air. This isn’t a game where the Hokies can afford to be tentative on offense.

Tech should have one of the better pass defenses that Pitt have faced. The Hokies’ secondary matches up pretty well against Pitt’s receivers. But it’s a balanced offense that will be tough to stop. They run the ball well which will set up some opportunities to go downfield to their deep ball threats. This Pitt offense has been a nightmare for opposing defenses because they run and pass the ball so well.

Is this a lost cause? Definitely not. Pittsburgh looked extremely mortal in their loss to Western Michigan. Maybe Pittsburgh will look a little rusty after their bye. Pitt has lost in their last two visits to Lane Stadium. The Hokies looked terrible in 2019 in the Duke game and came back the next week and beat a pretty good Miami team. Weird things happen in college football. On paper, Pitt looks like the better team but anything can happen on any given Saturday in college football.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 31, Virginia Tech 17

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Pittsburgh Preview and Prediction

The Miami game was a tough way to lose. The Hokies looked like the better team for three quarters against a top ten team. Then the offense went into hiding in the fourth quarter. It’s easy to point fingers but you have to make the plays in crunch time to win the game. Miami did. Virginia Tech didn’t. It’s that simple.

SP+ Rankings

This game comes down to can Hendon Hooker complete passes against man coverage? We know exactly what Pittsburgh in going to do. They will stack the box against the run and make Hendon Hooker beat them against press coverage. If Tech’s receivers can get open and Hendon Hooker can find them the ball, the Hokies should have success moving the football. But if Tech can’t run the ball and Hendon Hooker has trouble finding open receivers, it could be a long day offensively.

The Panthers struggle to run the ball and like to move the ball in the air. That plays to the advantage of the Hokies. Tech is better at stopping teams thru the air than on the ground. Kenny Pickett will have his work cut out for him against Virginia Tech’s secondary. Pitt ranks 71st in the nation in scoring offense averaging 27.6 points per game. Watch out for Jordan Addison in the passing game. He is Pitt’s go-to receiver.

This is a game where the Hokies want to get the tight ends involved. If James Mitchell is healthy, he would be the featured receiver. If he’s not able to go, the Hokies will need to lean on Nick Gallo. Expect this game to be a low-scoring affair, where the Hokies will HAVE to move the ball through the air. If all-else-fails the Hokies should run the Jerod Evans offense and have Hendon Hooker throw up jump ball after jump ball to his receivers. In the end, the Hokies will make a couple more plays offensively and win a one possession game on the road.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 28, Pittsburgh 24

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Pittsburgh Preview and Prediction

Hokies are bowl eligible of an NCAA-leading 27th consecutive season. The first goal for any season is to make a bowl game. Start with that goal first, then worry about division titles. A bowl game was a good goal for this team — especially after waiting until their 12th game to make one last year. Their excellent play of late has them in the thick of the race for the Coastal division. But to get there they need to win two difficult games against Pittsburgh and Virginia.

SP+ Rankings

Pittsburgh

Overall: 52nd
Offense: 112th
Defense: 10th
Special Teams: 92nd

Virginia Tech

Overall: 44th
Offense: 67th
Defense: 35th
Special Teams: 39th

Pittsburgh reminds me of Virginia Tech teams from the mid-2000s. Elite defense. Pedestrian offense. Pittsburgh wins by keeping the opposition out of the end zone. Pittsburgh is giving up an average of 22 points per game in ACC games this season. Pitt’s defensive statistics are impressive. 11th in total defense. 7th in rushing defense. 9th in pass efficiency defense. To beat Pitt, you need to be able to complete passes against press coverage. Wide receivers need to win the one-on-one battles. This is a good week to get tight ends involved in the passing game. If the Hokies hope to have success on offense, they need to stay out of third and long. And use the screen game against an aggressive defensive line.

This is not the offense that you’ve seen from Pitt in the past. When you think of the Pitt offense you think of a run-heavy game. This year, the Panthers have not been able to run the ball and have turned to a pass-heavy offense. Pittsburgh’s offensive numbers are ugly. 106th in scoring offense. 106th in rushing offense. 96th in passing efficiency. This is an offense that does just enough to let their defense win the game for them.

This is going to be a close game. Pitt’s defense is good enough that the Hokies aren’t going to be able to go up and down the field on them. The goal for the Tech offense will be to not turn the ball over and try to grind out a few scoring drives to win the game. The Pitt defense is good but not unbeatable. Tech needs to take a methodical approach to their offense. Take opportunities as they come but don’t force it. The Hokies offense should be able to put enough points on the board to win. And the defense is playing well enough now to keep Pittsburgh’s offense mostly in check.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 24, Pittsburgh 17