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Virginia Tech vs. Clemson: Game Preview

Saturday, October 24, 2026 • 7:00 PM ET • Memorial Stadium, Clemson, SC • ESPN

Virginia Tech vs. Clemson

A week ago, Virginia Tech was staring at the possibility of a three-game losing streak and watching the optimism surrounding James Franklin’s first season disappear almost as quickly as it arrived.

Two heartbreaking losses to Pittsburgh and California had turned a promising 4-0 start into a frustrating 4-2 record. The Hokies weren’t necessarily playing terrible football. They were simply finding increasingly creative ways to lose games they should have won.

Then came Georgia Tech.

Virginia Tech responded with a much-needed 34-24 victory over the Yellow Jackets, snapping its two-game losing streak and improving to 5-2 overall. Was it perfect? No.

Did it solve every problem we’ve watched over the past month? Probably not.

But the Hokies needed a win, and they got one. Now comes Clemson.

For the first time since 2012, Virginia Tech travels to Death Valley to face a Clemson program that looks considerably different from the national championship contender we’ve grown accustomed to seeing over the past decade.

The Tigers enter Saturday’s matchup at 4-2 following a 37-0 victory over Charleston Southern. But that record is somewhat misleading.

Clemson’s four victories have come against Georgia Southern, North Carolina, California, and Charleston Southern. Its two losses came against LSU and Miami, with the Tigers getting outscored 92-23 in those games. That’s not exactly the résumé of a national championship contender.

In fact, Clemson’s offense has been one of the least productive units in the Power Four, averaging just 22.3 points per game.

Meanwhile, Virginia Tech enters Saturday averaging 37.1 points per game and 451.3 yards of total offense.

On paper, this looks like a matchup the Hokies can win. Of course, Virginia Tech fans have spent the better part of the last decade discovering that games aren’t played on paper.

And winning at Clemson has historically been considerably more difficult than identifying the Tigers’ weaknesses.

Saturday represents an opportunity for James Franklin to accomplish something Virginia Tech hasn’t done in a long time: walk into Death Valley and leave with a victory.

More importantly, it represents an opportunity to demonstrate that this program is actually moving forward. Because beating Georgia Tech at home was necessary. Beating Clemson on the road would be a statement.

Clemson Isn’t the Clemson We Remember

For most of the last decade, Clemson has represented the standard of excellence in the ACC. National championships. College Football Playoff appearances. NFL talent everywhere.

Playing Clemson generally meant facing a roster that was bigger, faster, and more talented than almost anyone else in the conference. That doesn’t appear to be the case in 2026.

The Tigers are averaging just 340.7 yards of total offense per game, ranking 110th nationally. Their passing offense has been particularly ineffective, averaging 187.5 yards per game and producing just two passing touchdowns through six games. Two.

For a program that once featured Deshaun Watson and Trevor Lawrence, that’s an astonishing number. Clemson has been slightly more productive running the football, averaging 153.2 yards per game, but that’s hardly the type of rushing attack that should terrify Virginia Tech’s defense.

The Tigers have also struggled against legitimate competition. LSU scored 51 points against Clemson in the season opener. Miami scored 41 points in Death Valley two weeks ago. Clemson managed just 10 and 13 points, respectively. Those are the two most talented opponents the Tigers have faced, and neither game was particularly competitive.

The challenge for Virginia Tech is determining whether Clemson’s offensive struggles are a legitimate reflection of the Tigers’ limitations or simply the result of facing two elite opponents. My suspicion is that it’s a little of both.

Clemson still has talented players. It’s still a difficult place to play. And the Tigers are certainly capable of putting together a productive offensive performance.

But this isn’t the Clemson offense that used to overwhelm ACC opponents with explosive plays and superior athletes. Virginia Tech shouldn’t enter Saturday intimidated by the logo on the helmet.

The Tigers haven’t earned that kind of respect with their performance this season.

Virginia Tech’s Offense Has a Significant Advantage

Here’s the most encouraging statistic entering Saturday. Virginia Tech averages 451.3 yards of total offense per game. Clemson allows 330.8. That’s a difference of more than 120 yards.

The Hokies also average 37.1 points per game, compared with Clemson’s 21.5 points allowed. Those numbers suggest Virginia Tech should have opportunities to move the football. And much of that responsibility will fall on Ethan Grunkemeyer.

Through six games, Grunkemeyer had completed 73.1% of his passes for 1,734 yards, 12 touchdowns, and just two interceptions. Those are impressive numbers for a quarterback operating behind an offensive line that has dealt with injuries and personnel changes.

Grunkemeyer hasn’t been perfect. He’s occasionally held the football too long, taken unnecessary sacks, and struggled when opposing defenses have generated consistent pressure.

But he’s also demonstrated the ability to distribute the football effectively and make throws that Virginia Tech quarterbacks have struggled to complete in recent seasons.

Clemson’s pass defense is respectable, allowing 189.3 yards per game, which ranks 39th nationally. That means Grunkemeyer probably won’t have the same opportunities he’s enjoyed against weaker secondaries.

Still, Virginia Tech has enough offensive weapons to create problems. Luke Reynolds, Que’Sean Brown, and Ayden Greene give the Hokies multiple options in the passing game. The key will be protecting Grunkemeyer long enough to find them.

Virginia Tech doesn’t need its quarterback to throw for 350 yards Saturday. It needs him to make smart decisions, avoid turnovers, and capitalize when Clemson gives him opportunities.

Against an offense as inconsistent as Clemson’s, protecting the football could be more important than generating explosive plays.

Feed Jeffrey Overton

If there’s one player who could determine whether Virginia Tech leaves Clemson with a victory, it’s Jeffrey Overton.

The Hokies have been at their best offensively when they’ve established the running game and allowed Grunkemeyer to operate without carrying the entire offense.

Overton’s 209-yard performance against Boston College demonstrated what happens when Virginia Tech commits to running the football.

And Clemson’s defense presents an interesting opportunity. The Tigers are allowing 141.5 rushing yards per game, ranking 70th nationally. That’s not terrible, but it’s hardly the type of dominant run defense we’ve come to expect from Clemson.

Virginia Tech needs to test that defense early. Establish Overton between the tackles. Force Clemson to commit additional defenders to stopping the run. Create manageable third downs.

The Hokies cannot afford to become one-dimensional against a defense that still possesses enough talent to generate pressure and disrupt passing lanes.

There’s also the issue of Virginia Tech’s offensive line. Injuries and personnel changes have forced the Hokies to experiment with different combinations, including moving Layth Ghannam to left tackle against California.

That’s not ideal entering a road game at Clemson. The easiest way to protect an offensive line dealing with injuries is to avoid obvious passing situations.

Run the football. Stay ahead of the chains. Keep Clemson’s defense guessing. And when the Tigers start creeping additional defenders toward the line of scrimmage, let Grunkemeyer take advantage.

This doesn’t need to be complicated. Virginia Tech has the offensive personnel to score points against Clemson.

The question is whether the Hokies can execute consistently enough to make that advantage matter.

Virginia Tech’s Defense Needs to Take Advantage

For all the criticism Virginia Tech’s defense has received this season, the Hokies have actually been reasonably effective statistically.

Virginia Tech is allowing 314.7 yards per game, ranking 32nd nationally.More importantly, the Hokies are allowing just 87.4 rushing yards per game, the 10th-best mark in college football.

That’s significant against a Clemson offense that has struggled to throw the football. If Virginia Tech can continue limiting opposing rushing attacks, Clemson could find itself in an uncomfortable position.

The Tigers haven’t demonstrated an ability to consistently generate explosive plays through the air. Forcing Clemson into obvious passing situations should favor Virginia Tech.

Of course, there’s one obvious concern. Virginia Tech’s secondary. The Hokies are allowing 227.3 passing yards per game, ranking 95th nationally.

We’ve already watched opposing quarterbacks take advantage of coverage breakdowns, missed assignments, and unnecessary penalties.

Pittsburgh scored 35 points. California scored 25, including a game-winning touchdown in the final seconds. The issue hasn’t necessarily been an inability to stop opponents for four quarters.

It’s been an inability to make critical stops when the game is on the line. That’s what needs to change.

Clemson’s passing offense has been ineffective enough that Virginia Tech shouldn’t need to consistently commit additional defenders to coverage.

The Hokies should be able to focus on stopping the run, forcing third-and-long situations, and making Clemson sustain drives.

And when opportunities arise, they need to get off the field. No unnecessary penalties. No blown coverages. No giving up 30 yards on third-and-12.

If Virginia Tech holds Clemson to its season scoring average, the Hokies should have an excellent opportunity to win.

But we’ve already learned that statistical advantages don’t mean much when a defense can’t execute in critical moments.

The Death Valley Factor

There’s one element of this matchup that doesn’t show up in the statistics.

Death Valley.

Virginia Tech hasn’t played at Clemson since 2012, when the Tigers defeated the Hokies 38-17. That’s 14 years since the Hokies last made the trip to Memorial Stadium.

For most of Virginia Tech’s roster, Saturday will be the first opportunity to experience one of college football’s more intimidating environments. And it’ll be at night.

That’s not exactly the easiest situation for a quarterback and offensive line still developing chemistry. Communication will be critical.

False starts, missed assignments, and wasted timeouts can quickly turn manageable drives into disasters. We’ve already watched Virginia Tech commit enough unnecessary penalties this season. The Hokies can’t afford to give Clemson additional advantages because they’re struggling to communicate before the snap.

There’s also the emotional component. Clemson has struggled this season, but a home victory over Virginia Tech would provide the Tigers with an opportunity to build momentum entering the final stretch.

Dabo Swinney’s team will undoubtedly view Saturday as an important conference matchup. Virginia Tech needs to match that intensity from the opening kickoff.

Because allowing Clemson to build an early lead and energize the crowd would make an already difficult road environment considerably worse.

The Hokies don’t necessarily need to score on their opening possession. But they need to demonstrate immediately that they aren’t intimidated by the environment. And if Virginia Tech can take an early lead, the pressure shifts squarely onto a Clemson offense that hasn’t demonstrated an ability to consistently play from behind.

Keys to the Game

There are five things I’m watching Saturday.

1. Establish Jeffrey Overton early. Clemson’s run defense has been average, and Virginia Tech needs to take advantage. Overton should be a central part of the offensive game plan, particularly in the first half.

2. Protect Ethan Grunkemeyer. Death Valley will be loud, and Virginia Tech’s offensive line has been dealing with injuries. The Hokies need to avoid obvious passing situations and prevent Clemson from generating momentum with sacks and negative plays.

3. Force Clemson to throw the football. The Tigers are averaging fewer than 190 passing yards per game and have just two passing touchdowns this season. Virginia Tech’s run defense should be capable of making Clemson uncomfortable offensively.

4. Win the turnover battle. Virginia Tech has already demonstrated how quickly mistakes can turn winnable games into losses. Giving Clemson short fields would be particularly damaging against an offense that has struggled to sustain drives.

5. Play four quarters. Virginia Tech’s losses to Pittsburgh and California weren’t the result of being completely outplayed. They were the result of failing to execute in critical moments. The Hokies need to demonstrate that they’ve learned from those mistakes.

Final Prediction

I have a difficult time figuring out exactly what to make of this Virginia Tech team.

At 5-2, the Hokies have already demonstrated significant improvement in James Franklin’s first season.

The offense is productive. Grunkemeyer has been impressive. Overton provides a legitimate rushing threat.

And the defense, despite its frustrating inconsistencies, has been better statistically than the results against Pittsburgh and California might suggest.

But there’s still something missing. Virginia Tech hasn’t consistently demonstrated an ability to put together a complete performance against quality competition.

The Hokies have played well enough to win more games than they have, but that’s not particularly comforting when you’re the team finding ways to lose.

Clemson presents an interesting opportunity. The Tigers are 4-2, but their offense has been genuinely bad against legitimate competition.

Virginia Tech has the better statistical offense, a more productive passing game, and a run defense that should make Clemson’s offensive approach difficult. Those advantages are significant. But this is still Clemson. And this is still Death Valley.

I expect Virginia Tech to have some early struggles offensively, particularly dealing with the crowd noise and Clemson’s defensive front. I also expect the Tigers to have difficulty consistently moving the football against Virginia Tech’s defense.

The difference should be Grunkemeyer and Overton. Virginia Tech has more ways to generate offense, and Clemson hasn’t demonstrated that it can consistently keep pace with productive opponents.

I think Overton has another strong performance, Grunkemeyer makes enough plays through the air, and Virginia Tech enters the fourth quarter with a narrow lead. We’ve already watched the Hokies blow late opportunities against Pittsburgh and California.

A close fourth quarter in Death Valley would be another significant test of this team’s maturity. But I think Virginia Tech is finally beginning to figure out how to finish games.

The Georgia Tech victory was an important first step. Saturday provides an opportunity to take another. Clemson isn’t the Clemson of five years ago. And Virginia Tech isn’t the Virginia Tech of the last five years.

At some point, the Hokies need to stop treating victories over traditional ACC powers as something extraordinary and start treating them as games they should expect to win. Saturday feels like a good opportunity to start.

It won’t be easy. It probably won’t be particularly pretty. And there’s a decent chance Virginia Tech fans spend the fourth quarter wondering why they continue subjecting themselves to this. But I like the Hokies. I had this as a loss in the preseason but I think Tech can pull off a big win on the road .

Prediction: Virginia Tech 27, Clemson 24

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Virginia Tech vs. Georgia Tech: Game Preview

Saturday, October 17, 2026 • 3:30 PM ET • Lane Stadium, Blacksburg, VA • ACC Network

Georgia Tech vs. Virginia Tech

Two weeks ago, Virginia Tech was 4-0, riding the momentum of an undefeated September, and Hokie fans were beginning to entertain the possibility that James Franklin might have this program ahead of schedule.

Two weeks and two heartbreaking losses later, the Hokies are 4-2, sitting at 1-2 in ACC play, and desperately searching for answers.

The 35-33 loss to Pittsburgh was frustrating enough. Virginia Tech had opportunities to win that game and couldn’t finish. But last Saturday’s 25-20 loss at California was arguably worse. The Hokies traveled across the country, struggled to establish any consistency, and somehow managed to take the lead with just over a minute remaining before watching Cal march down the field for the game-winning touchdown.

For the second consecutive week, Virginia Tech found a way to lose a game it had every opportunity to win.

Now comes Georgia Tech.

The Yellow Jackets enter Saturday’s Homecoming matchup with a 2-3 record, but they’re coming off a dramatic 28-25 victory over Duke. Brent Key’s team has struggled through the first half of the season, but there’s enough talent on the roster to make the Hokies uncomfortable.

And if recent history has taught us anything, it’s that Virginia Tech doesn’t need much help making itself uncomfortable.

The good news? The Hokies return to Lane Stadium, where they’ll play in front of their fourth consecutive sellout crowd.

The bad news? Georgia Tech has won four of its last five trips to Blacksburg.

Saturday represents an opportunity to stop the bleeding, regain some confidence, and prevent a promising season from spiraling into another exercise in frustration.

Because with a trip to Clemson looming next weekend, a third consecutive loss would change the entire conversation surrounding James Franklin’s first season.

What Happened to the 4-0 Hokies?

The most frustrating part of Virginia Tech’s two-game losing streak isn’t necessarily that the Hokies have lost. It’s how they’ve lost.

Against Pittsburgh, the Hokies scored 33 points and still couldn’t escape with a victory. Against California, they held a 20-19 lead with 1:15 remaining before surrendering a touchdown with 18 seconds left.

That’s two conference losses by a combined seven points.

And while there’s a temptation to dismiss close losses as bad luck, Virginia Tech has repeatedly made the kinds of mistakes that turn potential victories into defeats.

Penalties. Missed kicks. Defensive breakdowns. Inability to execute in critical moments.

The encouraging part is that this team isn’t getting blown off the field. The concerning part is that it hasn’t demonstrated an ability to consistently close games against competent ACC competition.

The Offense: Grunkemeyer Continues to Produce

For all the frustration surrounding the past two weeks, Virginia Tech’s offense has been one of the more encouraging developments of the James Franklin era.

Quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer leads the ACC with 1,734 passing yards through six games and has thrown 12 touchdowns against just two interceptions.

The Hokies are averaging 37.7 points per game, the third-highest total in the conference.

Those numbers suggest an offense capable of competing with just about anyone on Virginia Tech’s schedule.

But the California game exposed an important distinction between accumulating statistics and consistently executing.

Virginia Tech scored just 20 points against the Golden Bears, and the offense struggled to maintain rhythm throughout the afternoon.

Grunkemeyer eventually delivered what should have been the decisive score, a one-yard touchdown run that gave the Hokies the lead late in the fourth quarter.

Unfortunately, the defense couldn’t finish the job.

Against Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech should have opportunities to move the football. The Yellow Jackets are allowing nearly 389 yards per game, placing them among the ACC’s weaker defenses.

The challenge will be converting those opportunities into touchdowns rather than settling for field-goal attempts.

Which brings us to…

The Special Teams: A Growing Concern

John Love entered the season as one of Virginia Tech’s most dependable players.

Now the kicking game has become a legitimate concern.

Love missed a potential game-winning field goal against Pittsburgh and followed that performance with two more misses against California.

That’s three consecutive missed field goals in two games decided by a combined seven points.

James Franklin has publicly supported Love while acknowledging that competition at the position remains open, with Will Love and Cole Byrd among the alternatives.

Punter Nathan Totten has also struggled, averaging approximately 41 yards per punt.

Virginia Tech simply cannot continue giving away points and field position in close games.

Special teams are supposed to be an advantage for a well-coached football team. Right now, they’re creating additional obstacles for a program that already has enough of them.

Meet the Yellow Jackets

Georgia Tech entered the season hoping to build on the success Brent Key established over the past several years.

Instead, the Yellow Jackets have spent much of the first half trying to figure out what kind of football team they actually are.

Losing Haynes King and Jamal Haynes was always going to create challenges. Georgia Tech also replaced both coordinators, bringing in George Godsey to run the offense and Jason Semore to coordinate the defense.

The result has been a 2-3 start and an inconsistent team that has struggled to replace the production and leadership of its departed stars.

But last weekend offered some encouragement.

After falling to 1-3, Georgia Tech responded by knocking off previously unbeaten Duke, 28-25. The Yellow Jackets scored the go-ahead touchdown with 54 seconds remaining and survived a missed Duke field goal in the closing seconds.

Sound familiar?

Apparently, Georgia Tech has figured out how to win the exact kind of football game Virginia Tech keeps losing.

Alberto Mendoza and the Georgia Tech Offense

The Yellow Jackets have turned to Alberto Mendoza at quarterback, and he’s coming off one of the most important performances of his young Georgia Tech career.

Mendoza helped engineer the late touchdown drive against Duke and demonstrated the kind of composure that could make Georgia Tech dangerous as the season progresses.

But the real concern for Virginia Tech might be running back Justice Haynes.

Haynes has been one of Georgia Tech’s most productive offensive players, forcing 28 missed tackles through five games. He’s capable of creating yards even when the offensive line doesn’t give him much help.

That matters because Virginia Tech has struggled to consistently get off the field in critical situations.

Georgia Tech’s offensive line hasn’t been particularly impressive this season, but it has shown signs of improvement. If the Yellow Jackets can establish Haynes early, they can keep Virginia Tech’s offense on the sideline and shorten the game.

The Hokies need to make Mendoza beat them through the air.

That doesn’t mean Georgia Tech can’t throw the football. It means Virginia Tech should be more comfortable defending a relatively inexperienced quarterback than allowing Haynes to control the game on the ground.

Of course, this requires Virginia Tech’s secondary to avoid giving up explosive plays and committing unnecessary penalties.

Georgia Tech’s Defense Is a Problem

If there’s one reason to feel optimistic about Saturday, it’s Georgia Tech’s defense.

The Yellow Jackets have struggled across nearly every meaningful defensive category.

Zero turnovers forced against FBS competition. That’s remarkable.

Georgia Tech has struggled to stop the run, struggled to pressure opposing quarterbacks, and struggled to force mistakes.

Now the Yellow Jackets have lost one of their most important defensive players.

Linebacker Kyle Efford announced his medical retirement Tuesday following repeated injuries. Efford led Georgia Tech in tackles in each of the previous three seasons and was one of the team’s most experienced defenders.

His absence leaves an already vulnerable defense with another significant problem.

Virginia Tech should be able to move the football against this group.

And if the Hokies can’t, the offensive concerns are considerably larger than anything we’ve seen over the past two weeks.

Feed Jeffrey Overton

This feels like a game where Virginia Tech should lean heavily on Jeffrey Overton.

Georgia Tech has been vulnerable against the run, allowing nearly 182 rushing yards per game against FBS opponents.

Overton has already demonstrated his ability to take over a football game. His 209-yard performance against Boston College was arguably the biggest reason Virginia Tech escaped Chestnut Hill with a victory.

The Hokies don’t need Grunkemeyer throwing 45 passes Saturday.

They need to establish the running game, create manageable third downs, and force Georgia Tech to bring additional defenders into the box.

That should open opportunities for Luke Reynolds, Que’Sean Brown and Ayden Greene.

There is one complication.

Virginia Tech’s offensive line has been dealing with injuries and significant personnel changes. Layth Ghannam moved to left tackle against Cal, leaving a relatively inexperienced interior group.

Georgia Tech defensive tackle Tawfiq Thomas has seven tackles for loss and two sacks through five games. He’s one of the few Yellow Jackets defenders who has consistently disrupted opposing offenses.

That’s a matchup Virginia Tech needs to account for.

But the broader point remains: Georgia Tech’s defense has been bad enough that Virginia Tech should be able to dictate the game offensively.

Run the football. Protect Grunkemeyer. Finish drives.

Can Virginia Tech’s Defense Finally Finish a Game?

This is the biggest question entering Saturday.

Virginia Tech has allowed 60 points over its past two games. More importantly, the defense has surrendered decisive late scoring drives in consecutive weeks.

Against California, the Hokies committed two 15-yard penalties on the Golden Bears’ final touchdown drive.

One was a pass interference penalty. The other was another costly defensive mistake.

James Franklin has acknowledged the recurring issues with defensive penalties and playing the football in the air.

That’s encouraging, but identifying the problem and fixing it are two different things.

Virginia Tech needs to demonstrate that it can play disciplined defense when the game is on the line.

Georgia Tech isn’t an offensive juggernaut, but Haynes and Mendoza are capable of exploiting mistakes.

The Hokies need to avoid allowing explosive plays, limit unnecessary penalties and force Georgia Tech to sustain long drives.

If the Yellow Jackets have to execute 10 or 12 plays to score, Virginia Tech should have opportunities to create negative plays and get off the field.

If the Hokies continue giving opponents free yards and first downs, it won’t matter how favorable the matchup looks on paper.

SP+ and the Analytics

The underlying matchup still favors Virginia Tech.

The Hokies entered the California game around No. 28 nationally in SP+, while the Golden Bears were ranked in the 80s. Despite that analytical advantage, Virginia Tech lost.

That should serve as a useful reminder that advanced metrics measure team quality, not a team’s ability to avoid catastrophic fourth-quarter mistakes.

I couldn’t verify updated October 14 SP+ or FPI ratings for both teams, so I’m not going to invent exact rankings or model projections.

But the statistical matchup provides a pretty clear picture.

Virginia Tech has the more productive passing offense, the better overall offensive production, and the advantage of playing at home.

Georgia Tech has struggled defensively, particularly against the run, and hasn’t consistently pressured opposing quarterbacks.

The Yellow Jackets’ best opportunity is to control the football with Haynes, limit Virginia Tech’s possessions, and take advantage of mistakes.

The Hokies’ best opportunity is to do what they should have done against California: establish the running game, create explosive plays through the air, and stop giving the other team opportunities to steal the game.

Analytically, Virginia Tech looks like the better team.

But the Hokies have already demonstrated that being better on paper doesn’t guarantee anything.

Betting Analysis

The betting market views Virginia Tech as a fairly substantial favorite, which makes sense when comparing the teams’ overall performances.

Virginia Tech has enough offensive firepower to cover this spread. Georgia Tech’s defense has been vulnerable enough that a 35-point performance from the Hokies wouldn’t be particularly surprising.

The problem is Virginia Tech’s defense.

The Hokies have struggled to close games, and Georgia Tech is coming off a performance in which it scored 28 points against Duke.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Yellow Jackets scored into the 20s, which would require Virginia Tech to produce another strong offensive performance to cover.

The total of 56.5 is interesting.

Virginia Tech averages 37.7 points per game, while Georgia Tech’s defense has allowed nearly 30 points per game against FBS opponents.

That suggests the Hokies should have opportunities to score.

But if Georgia Tech can establish the running game and control possession, the Yellow Jackets could keep the total lower than expected.

My betting lean: Virginia Tech -10.

Keys to the Game

There are five things I’m watching Saturday.

1. Establish Jeffrey Overton early. Georgia Tech has struggled against the run. Virginia Tech needs to make the Yellow Jackets prove they can stop Overton before putting the entire offense on Grunkemeyer’s shoulders.

2. Protect Ethan Grunkemeyer. The offensive line has been dealing with injuries, and Tawfiq Thomas presents a legitimate challenge. Georgia Tech hasn’t generated much pressure overall, so Virginia Tech should have opportunities if it can neutralize Thomas.

3. Eliminate defensive penalties. Virginia Tech has repeatedly extended opposing drives with unnecessary penalties. That can’t continue.

4. Fix the kicking game. John Love has missed three consecutive field goals. Whether Franklin sticks with Love or makes a change, Virginia Tech needs to start converting scoring opportunities.

5. Finish the game. This is the most important one. Virginia Tech has played well enough to win each of its past two games and still managed to lose both. At some point, the Hokies need to demonstrate that they can execute in the fourth quarter.

Final Prediction

I don’t love this matchup as much as I would have two weeks ago.

Georgia Tech is coming off its best win of the season. Virginia Tech is coming off two of its most frustrating losses.

The Yellow Jackets have momentum. The Hokies have questions.

But Virginia Tech is still the more talented team offensively, and Georgia Tech’s defensive weaknesses are difficult to ignore.

I expect Overton to have a productive afternoon against a vulnerable run defense. Grunkemeyer should find opportunities through the air, particularly if Georgia Tech is forced to commit additional defenders to stopping the run.

The concern is whether Virginia Tech can play a complete game.

I don’t expect the Hokies to suddenly fix every defensive problem in one week. Georgia Tech will move the football, Haynes will make some plays, and I wouldn’t be surprised if this game is closer than the spread suggests entering the fourth quarter.

But Virginia Tech is at home, it’s Homecoming, and the Hokies desperately need a win.

James Franklin has spent the past two weeks watching his team lose games it should have won.

I don’t think it happens a third time.

Virginia Tech moves to 5-2 and gets its season back on track before heading to Clemson.

It won’t be perfect. And given what we’ve watched over the past two weeks, there’s a decent chance we’ll spend at least part of Saturday wondering how Virginia Tech is managing to make another winnable game unnecessarily difficult.

But the Hokies should win.

And right now, that’s all that matters.

Final Score: Virginia Tech 35, Georgia Tech 24

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2026 Virginia Tech Midseason Review: From 4-0 to Reality Check

Six games into the James Franklin era, Virginia Tech sits at 4-2 overall and 1-2 in the ACC. If you had told me before the season that the Hokies would be 4-2 at the halfway point, I probably would have taken it. After watching this team start 4-0, however, it’s hard not to feel a little disappointed.

Virginia Tech opened the season with four consecutive wins, including road victories over Maryland and Boston College. Lane Stadium was rocking, the offense was putting up ridiculous numbers, and for the first time in what feels like an eternity, Virginia Tech football was actually fun again.

Then Pitt happened. And then Cal happened.

In the span of eight days, Virginia Tech went from an undefeated team with legitimate ACC championship aspirations to a team searching for answers after consecutive losses. The frustrating part isn’t necessarily that the Hokies lost two games. It’s how they lost them.

Against Pitt, Virginia Tech produced 578 yards of offense and still managed to lose 35-33. Against Cal, the Hokies led with 75 seconds remaining before allowing the Golden Bears to march 75 yards in less than a minute for the winning touchdown.

Two games. Two losses by a combined seven points. Two games Virginia Tech had every opportunity to win.

Sound familiar?

The difference between this team and the Virginia Tech teams we’ve watched over the past several years is that the talent and offensive production are clearly improving. The problem is that the Hokies are still making the kinds of mistakes that have plagued the program for the better part of a decade.

Let’s take a look at where things stand halfway through the 2026 season.

The First Six Games

Opponent

Result

VMI

W 73-3

Old Dominion

W 44-21

at Maryland

W 35-26

at Boston College

W 21-14

Pittsburgh

L 33-35

at California

L 20-25

The first four games showed exactly why Virginia Tech hired James Franklin. The Hokies were more explosive offensively, looked better prepared, and demonstrated an ability to win games in different ways.

The VMI game was a glorified scrimmage, but scoring 73 points was a nice way to introduce the new coaching staff. Old Dominion provided a slightly better test, and Virginia Tech handled business.

The Maryland game was probably the first indication that this team might be ahead of schedule. Going on the road and beating a Big Ten opponent 35-26 was encouraging, particularly for a program that has struggled to consistently beat Power Four competition.

Then came Boston College.

Playing in absolutely miserable weather, Virginia Tech found itself trailing 14-6 in the fourth quarter. Jeffrey Overton Jr. proceeded to put the offense on his back, finishing with 209 rushing yards and breaking a 76-yard touchdown run that helped deliver a 21-14 victory.

At 4-0, there was legitimate reason to be excited.

Unfortunately, the next two weeks exposed some pretty significant problems.

Against Pitt, turnovers and missed opportunities erased an outstanding offensive performance. Against Cal, Virginia Tech failed to protect a late lead against a team it should have beaten.

Now, instead of talking about whether Virginia Tech can compete for an ACC championship, we’re talking about whether the Hokies can avoid another disappointing second half of the season. That’s quite a turnaround.

Offense: A Significant Improvement

The biggest positive from the first six games has been the offense.

Virginia Tech is averaging 37.7 points per game, and Ethan Grunkemeyer has been considerably better than I expected entering the season.

Grunkemeyer has shown he can distribute the football, push the ball downfield and put up big numbers against quality competition. His 434-yard, three-touchdown performance against Pitt was probably the most encouraging individual offensive performance of the season.

The problem is consistency. Virginia Tech scored 73 points against VMI and 44 against Old Dominion. Against Boston College and Cal, the Hokies managed just 21 and 20 points, respectively. That’s not particularly encouraging as the schedule gets tougher.

Jeffrey Overton Jr. has been a tremendous addition to the backfield. His performance against Boston College essentially saved Virginia Tech from an embarrassing loss, and he has demonstrated the ability to create explosive plays when the offense needs them.

Ayden Greene has also emerged as a legitimate receiving threat, while Que’Sean Brown and the other offensive weapons have given Grunkemeyer options in the passing game.

The offensive line has generally been better than what we’ve seen in recent years, although there’s still room for improvement.

Overall, I’m encouraged by the offense. This group is capable of scoring enough points to win eight or nine games. The question is whether it can consistently execute when it matters most.

Midseason Offensive Grade: B+

Defense: Still a Work in Progress

Brent Pry’s return to defensive coordinator was one of the most interesting developments of the offseason. Six games into the season, I think the results have been mixed.

Virginia Tech is allowing 20.7 points per game. On paper, that’s respectable. But those numbers are helped significantly by the VMI game.

The Hokies have surrendered 35 points to Pitt and 25 to Cal in consecutive weeks. More concerning than the actual point totals is how those points were scored.

Against Cal, Virginia Tech took a 20-19 lead with 1:15 remaining. The defense then allowed the Golden Bears to go 75 yards in six plays and score the winning touchdown with 18 seconds left. That’s unacceptable.

The secondary was supposed to be one of the strengths of this team, but Virginia Tech has struggled to prevent explosive passing plays and get critical stops.

The front seven has shown flashes of being disruptive, but the defense hasn’t consistently generated enough pressure to make opposing quarterbacks uncomfortable.

I don’t think the defense is terrible. It’s clearly capable of playing well for extended stretches. The problem is that it hasn’t demonstrated the ability to finish games.

If Virginia Tech wants to win some of these tougher ACC matchups, the defense needs to improve considerably over the next six games.

Midseason Defensive Grade: C+

Coaching Staff: The Honeymoon Is Over

I still believe James Franklin was an excellent hire for Virginia Tech. He’s brought credibility, improved the roster, upgraded the offense and made Virginia Tech football relevant again.

But the past two weeks have been a reminder that rebuilding a football program isn’t as simple as hiring a successful head coach.

The biggest disappointment has been the late-game execution. Virginia Tech had multiple opportunities to beat Pitt and couldn’t finish. Against Cal, the Hokies managed to take the lead late in the fourth quarter only to immediately surrender it. Those are the kinds of games Franklin was hired to win.

The good news is that Virginia Tech has been competitive in every game this season. Unlike previous years, there hasn’t been a game where the Hokies looked completely overmatched.

The bad news is that being competitive isn’t the standard. Franklin doesn’t need to win 10 games in Year 1, but Virginia Tech needs to stop finding ways to lose games it should win.

Midseason Coaching Grade: B-

Midseason Awards

MVP: Ethan Grunkemeyer

Grunkemeyer has exceeded my expectations through six games. He’s demonstrated that Virginia Tech can have a legitimate passing attack, and his performance against Pitt showed what this offense is capable of when he’s playing well.

Honorable Mention: Jeffrey Overton Jr.

Biggest Surprise: The Passing Game

I expected the offense to improve under Franklin, but I didn’t expect Grunkemeyer to produce a 434-yard passing performance against an undefeated Pitt team.

Biggest Disappointment: Late-Game Execution

Virginia Tech is a handful of plays away from being 6-0. Instead, the Hokies are 4-2. At some point, the program has to start making those plays.

The Remaining Schedule

Opponent

Midseason Prediction

Georgia Tech

Win

at Clemson

Loss

at SMU

Loss

Stanford

Win

at Miami

Loss

Virginia

Win

Tough Games (Less Than 40% Chance to Win)

at Clemson

Winning in Death Valley is difficult, and Virginia Tech hasn’t demonstrated the consistency needed to feel confident about going into Clemson and winning.

at Miami

Miami has more talent across the roster, and playing the Hurricanes on the road late in November is going to be a significant challenge.

at SMU

Another Friday night road game against a talented ACC opponent. This feels like exactly the kind of game Virginia Tech could win if everything comes together, but I’m not predicting it.

Toss-Up Games

Georgia Tech

This might be the most important remaining game on the schedule. Virginia Tech needs to end its two-game losing streak, and doing it at home against Georgia Tech would go a long way toward restoring confidence.

Virginia

I don’t care what the records are. This is a rivalry game, and Virginia Tech needs to win it. Losing to Virginia at home would put a significant damper on what should be an encouraging first season under Franklin.

Should Win Games (Greater Than 60% Chance to Win)

Stanford

Virginia Tech should have the talent advantage, and this is a game the Hokies need to win if they want to finish with a respectable record.

Keys to the Second Half

There are three things I’m looking for over the final six games.

First, Virginia Tech needs to play cleaner football. Turnovers, missed assignments and late-game mistakes have already cost this team two wins. That has to change.

Second, the defense needs to improve. The Hokies don’t need a Top 10 defense to win eight games, but they need to get stops when the game is on the line.

Third, Virginia Tech needs to show that it can bounce back from adversity. Starting 4-0 was great, but how this team responds to consecutive losses will tell us considerably more about the direction of the program.

Final Prediction: 7-5

Before the season, I predicted Virginia Tech would finish 8-4. I still think that’s possible, but the loss to Pitt makes getting there considerably more difficult.

Looking at the remaining schedule, I see three games Virginia Tech should be able to win and three games where the Hokies will probably be underdogs.

Beat Georgia Tech, Stanford and Virginia, and Virginia Tech finishes 7-5.

Steal one against Clemson, SMU or Miami, and the Hokies finish 8-4.

Lose another game they should win, and suddenly we’re talking about 6-6.

I think 7-5 is the most realistic outcome.

Would that be a successful first season under James Franklin? I think so.

Remember where this program was a year ago. Virginia Tech was 2-4 at the halfway point, had already fired Brent Pry and was staring down another losing season. Now the Hokies are 4-2 with a legitimate offense, a proven head coach and a much more encouraging outlook for the future.

That’s progress.

But the past two weeks have also been a reminder of how far this program still has to go.

Virginia Tech didn’t hire James Franklin to consistently win seven games. The goal is to compete for ACC championships, return to the Top 25 and eventually become a legitimate College Football Playoff contender.

That’s not happening overnight.

The good news is that Virginia Tech looks considerably closer to becoming a good football program than it did 12 months ago.

The bad news is that we’re still watching the Hokies lose games they should win.

Final Regular Season Prediction: 7-5 (4-4 ACC)

Expected ACC Finish: 7th-10th

Overall Midseason Grade: B-

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How I Did With My Predictions This Year and ACC Final Thoughts

Here’s a link to my preseason predictions: https://treadmillhorse.com/2025/08/20/2025-virginia-tech-season-preview/

A historically bad year with my predictions, where I went 7-5 in the preseason and 8-4 with my week-to-week predictions. But I did go 6-0 with my week-to-week predictions in the second half of the season. It took me a bit to get a feel for who this team actually was. Hopefully, in the future I can predict more wins and fewer losses.

GamePreseason PredictionGame Week PredictionResult
South Carolina
Vanderbilt
Old Dominion
Wofford
at NC State
Wake Forest
at Georgia Tech
California
Louisville
at Florida State
Miami
at Virginia
Prediction Record7-58-4
Virginia Tech Game by Game Predictions

Here’s a link to my preseason ACC Predictions: https://treadmillhorse.com/2025/08/23/preseason-acc-predictions/

Final thoughts on the ACC Standings:

Final ACC Standings Comments

7-1 (10-3)		Virginia found their footing this year and looked like a legit team. Unfortunately, they couldn’t find their best game in the ACC Championship Game.

6-2 (8-4)		This is a team (like Virginia) that benefited from a soft ACC schedule. Massive disappointment the last week of the season with a chance to go to Charlotte.

6-2 (10-2)		Miami needs to stop dropping games they shouldn’t. Other than that, they represented the ACC very well in non-conference games.

6-2 (9-3)		This could’ve been a CFP team before they lost 3 of their last 4 games.

6-2 (9-3)		Overall, a pretty good year but that loss to WVU looks pretty bad in hindsight.

6-2 (8-5)		The ACC champs. Probably the most unlikely ACC champs since Wake won the league in ’06. Manny Diaz continues to impress.

6-2 (7-5)		One of the most up and down seasons in the league. At least they have a quarterback.

4-4 (7-5)		Disappointing year by Clemson’s standards but at least they won their last four games.

4-4 (7-5)		As Jekyll and Hyde as your going to find in this league.

4-4 (8-4)		Look out because Wake Forest has 2026 sleeper written all over them.

4-4 (8-4)		After a great start, collapsed down the stretch in ACC play.

3-5 (4-8)		Generally, not good but beating Cal the way they did was impressive.

2-6 (5-7)		Salvaged a season that looked like it was headed down the toilet. You have to wonder if they are going to regret not firing Mike Norvell this year.

2-6 (4-8)		Probably the biggest disappointment in the league. Year 1 of Bill Belichick was a bust.

2-6 (3-9)		Pretty bad all the way around but they may have won the coaching carousel this year.

1-7 (2-10)		Won the first game and the last game and pretty bad in between with some moral victories sprinkled in.

1-7 (3-9)		What I’ll remember are the performative post-game wind sprints and losing to Notre Dame 70-7.
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Virginia vs Virginia Tech Preview and Prediction

Date & Time: Saturday, November 29, 2025 at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Location: Scott Stadium, Charlottesville, Va.
Series: Virginia Tech leads 62–38–5
Streaks: VT has dominated the rivalry for two decades, winning 17 of the last 18 meetings.

This rivalry is finally starting to develop some juice with Virginia having a great regular season and Virginia Tech hiring a big-time football coach. Both programs are pumping serious money into football and it looks like football in the Commonwealth is about to take off.

This game will be decided by quarterback play. On paper, UVA has the better QB in Chandler Morris. Virginia Tech has a couple of talented guys in Kyron Drones and Pop Watson but both have been inconsistent so far this year. To win, Virginia Tech is going to have to get an A-level performance out of one or both of their QBs.

Virginia has balance when they have the football. They can run it and throw it well. They have a couple of running backs with a good yard per carry average and they have a bunch of reliable targets in the passing game. This isn’t an offense that’s going to wow you but they’ve got the pieces to slowly and steadily move the ball downfield consistently.

Virginia is only giving up 21.2 points per game this year. That’s good for 37th nationally. They are a solid defense that likes to lock teams down on third down. They are 6th in the country at forcing stops on the third down. They only allow 29.7% conversion on third down. If the Hokies want to move the ball, they should look for big plays in the passing game. UVA is susceptible to giving up the big play on the backend of their defense.

These games are always weird. It’s a cliche but throw the stats out the window. Tech always plays above their weight class in this matchup and Virginia tends to make uncharacteristic mistakes in this game. A couple of things I like for Virginia Tech in this game a) UVA has played one of the weakest schedules in the ACC this year b) they are coming off a bye last week which can sometimes leads to some early rust on offense. Virginia might get off to a slow start, so Virginia Tech will have to take advantage of that. Vegas is giving UVA too much credit in this one. It ends in a one-possession game but just like the 2019 game, Virginia has the better QB and UVA wins by a touchdown.

Prediction: Virginia 28, Virginia Tech 21

📈 Betting Line & Market

  • Spread: Virginia -9.5 vs Virginia Tech +9.5
  • Total: 52.5–53.5 (most commonly 52.5 or 53)
  • Moneyline: Around UVA -360 / VT +285

📐 Advanced Analytics vs. Market

SP+ (Bill Connelly / ESPN):

  • Gives UVA a 92% win probability and a projected score of 38–16 (UVA by 22).

ESPN FPI:

  • Has UVA at 80.1% win probability, VT at 19.9%.

Compare that to the betting market:

  • Market implied UVA win chance (around -360) ≈ mid-70s %
  • Analytics (SP+, FPI) say 80–92% → they see UVA as an even bigger favorite than the line suggests.
  • Books: UVA by ~9.5
  • SP+: UVA by ~22
  • FPI: UVA by something like 10–13, depending on home-field assumption.

🧠 Big-Picture Summary

  • Market: UVA -9.5, 52.5 total, ML around -360.
  • Analytics: Strongly favor UVA (80–92% win probability, SP+ by 22).
  • Risk factors: Rivalry chaos, cold weather, UVA’s LB injury

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Miami vs Virginia Tech Preview and Prediction

Date & Time: Saturday, November 22, 2025 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Location: Lane Stadium, Blacksburg, VA
Television: ESPN (play-by-play: Bob Wischusen; analyst: Louis Riddick; sideline: Kris Budden)

Virginia Tech Hokies: 3-7 overall, 2-4 in the ACC.
Miami Hurricanes: 8-2 overall, 4-2 in the ACC.

Virginia Tech got their guy. This program feels like it just got a massive wave of positive momentum behind it. So the rest of this season feels a bit like an afterthought but it’s extremely important for the players and coaches playing for next year.

Miami’s offense is explosive, particularly throwing the ball. If Carson Beck is at his best, Miami is tough to stop. They’ve got talented receivers all over the field. This is a game where the DBs have to show up and keep Beck from lighting them up downfield. This is an offense that relies on the big play, so if the Hokies can stop the chunk plays downfield, they have a shot at slowing down this offense.

The key to this game is Miami’s defense. They are top 10 defense who can absolutely stonewall the run. Miami can be beat over the top but that would rely on Kyron Drones and his receivers making plays downfield. That has been pretty inconsistent so far this year.

This game has a not-so-fast-my-friend feel to it. It’s Virginia Tech’s Senior Day. Four of the last five matchups in this series have been decided by 7 points or less. Miami has been less-than-impressive on the road this year and this is unbelievably only their third road game of the season. I’m not ready to pick the upset but it’s closer than the experts think.

Prediction: Miami 28, Virginia Tech 21

📈 Betting Line & Market

Spread: Miami -17.5 at most books (opened ~-16.5, ticked up).
Total: 48.5 (some 49.5s in the market).

Moneyline

Miami: around -950 to -1200
Virginia Tech: around +600 to +700

That translates roughly to Miami win probability ~90–92% in betting terms.

Recent performance vs ATS:

Miami: 8–2 SU, 6–4 ATS, scoring 33.7 ppg, allowing 14.2 ppg.
Virginia Tech: 3–7 SU, 2–8 ATS, scoring 23.3 ppg, allowing 30.1 ppg.
Trend: VT is 2–9 ATS last 11; Miami 8–2 SU last 10.

Raw model score:

Miami ~32 – VT ~19 → Miami -13 to -14, Total ~50–51.

Market total: 48.5.
Model total: ~51.


Both trends and matchup history lean UNDER in this series, especially in Blacksburg (UNDER in 4 of last 5 meetings at VT).

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Florida State vs Virginia Tech Preview and Prediction

Date & Time: Saturday, November 15th, 2025 at 7:30 p.m. ET
Location: Doak-Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, Florida
Matchup: Virginia Tech (3-6 overall, 2-3 in ACC) vs. Florida State (4-5 overall, 1-5 in ACC)
Television: ACC Network

Virginia Tech has a tough 3-game stretch to close the season. Florida State on the road, 18th ranked Miami at home, then close with 14th ranked Virginia on the road. This is an opportunity to build momentum for next year and for the next head coach. A lot of guys on this year’s team may not be here next year and this is an audition for the next coaching staff who will want to see who shined on this year’s team.

The Virginia Tech offense is good when they can run the ball. Can they run and control clock against Florida State? They need to get back to the formula that worked against Cal. Run your two top RBs and get Drones going in the run game. That’s the Hokies best path to moving ball against Florida State and for the rest of the season.

Virginia Tech has done a good job against Tommy Castellanos in the past when he was at Boston College. He is one of the few dual threat QBs that the Hokies have had success against. Castellanos looks like a more accomplished passer this year but the Hokies have shown they can get stops when they get pressure. A consistent pass rush would be big to securing a win this week.

When the Hokies have played the Seminoles in the past, it’s always come down to turnovers and special teams plays. This week will be no different. The team that can win the turnover battle and/or break a big special teams play will be the one who comes away with the win this week.

Florida State has been tough to figure out. They’ve won one out of their last six games. That one game was a beatdown of a pretty good Wake Forest team. They’ve played everyone else reasonably close but haven’t been able to get on the winning end of these games. They are a talented team but haven’t quite put it all together (except for the one Wake game). Virginia Tech has a decent chance in this game but they have to play a clean game. No bad turnovers or special teams snafus. All things being equal, Florida State has enough juice to win this game at home in a night game.

Prediction: Florida State 35, Virginia Tech 20

📈 Betting Line & Market

  • Moneyline: Florida State -578 (85% implied probability of a win)
  • Spread: FSU favored by roughly 12.5 to 14 points depending on book.
  • Total (Over/Under): Around 54.5 points in several books.

📊 Market Signals & What They Suggest

  • The large spread and heavy moneyline favorite status for Florida State indicates the market views them significantly stronger. The “win probability” derived from those odds (especially model‐based predictions) puts FSU at ~80%+ chance.
  • The O/U at ~54.5 suggests moderate scoring expectation — not a low‐scoring defensive slugfest, but also not expected to be a track meet above 60+.
  • Some line movement: initial spreads around –13.5 for FSU in reporting.

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Louisville vs Virginia Tech Preview and Prediction

Date & Time: Saturday, November 1, 2025 at 3 p.m. ET
Location: Lane Stadium, Blacksburg, Virginia
Matchup: Virginia Tech (3-5 overall, 2-2 in ACC) vs. Louisville (6-1 overall, 3-1 in ACC)
Television: The CW Network

Virginia Tech continues to have a talent gap but the game against Cal showed they can still be competitive. The next step is to use that momentum to score a win over a top 25 team. Louisville is very good but they are beatable. Especially playing in Lane. This is a big opportunity for Philip Montgomery and his guys to score a big win.

The Hokies need to run the same offense they did against Cal. Run the ball as many ways as Philip Montgomery can think of. Tech’s best offensive weapons are Kyron Drones, Marcellous Hawkins and Terion Stewart running the ball. Those three options give opponents more to think about than trying to force a passing game which hasn’t worked well this season. And as we saw last week, when the run game is working it opens up opportunities in the passing game.

Louisville has an explosive offense. This will be a much tougher task than Cal last week. Hopefully the defense is starting to figure it out and will be able to get some stops. Players to watch are RB Isaac Brown and WR Chris Bell. Both of those guys are game breakers and can make big plays when they get the ball in their hands.

In order to have a shot this week, the Hokies need to win the turnover battle. Capitalizing on a short field or two would help to even up this game a bit. If the turnover battle is even, that favors Louisville which should have a significant advantage when they have the ball.

Louisville looks every bit the part of a top 25 team. They beat #2 Miami two weeks ago. This is a team that scores a lot of points. They have many different ways they can beat you. The Hokies best chance is to control the clock, limit possessions and force a turnover or two. Otherwise, on paper, it looks like Louisville has a pretty significant advantage in this game.

Prediction: Louisville 34, Virginia Tech 20

📈 Betting Line & Market

  • Odds: Louisville favored by about 10.5 points, with total expected points ~ 53.5.

Market snapshot

  • Spread/Total/Moneyline: Louisville -10.5 (≈ -420), O/U 53.5, VT +325.
  • Implied score from market: ~Louisville 32 – VT 22 (solve from spread + total)
  • Implied win probs from ML: Louisville ~80.4%, VT ~23.6%. (Derived from -420/+325 posted by FOX Sports)

Public/computer angles

  • FOX/Data Skrive model: Louisville 37–19 (Louisville -10.5, Over).
  • SP+ (Bill Connelly via SI): Projects Louisville 35–19, Cardinals by 15.3 with VT win prob 17%; O/U projection 53.5. This is ~5 points stronger on Louisville than the market.
  • OddsShark computer: Predicted 34.4–24.6 (leans Louisville -10.5; predicted sum is ~59).
  • Consensus line checkers/news: Most outlets list Louisville -10.5 / 53.5; BetMGM listed -10.5 on Tuesday.

Spread:

  • Market: LOU -10.5.
  • SP+ fair line: LOU -15.3 → ~4.8 points of value toward Louisville vs. current spread.
  • Other computers (FOX/OddsShark) sit around LOU by 12–18

Total:

  • Market: 53.5.
  • SP+: 53.5 (no edge). FOX model sum 56 (slight Over).

Moneyline:

Market implies ~80% Louisville. SP+ VT win prob ~17% → aligns with the favorite being heavy.

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California vs Virginia Tech Preview and Prediction

Date & Time: Friday, October 24, 2025 at 7:30 p.m. ET
Location: Lane Stadium, Blacksburg, Virginia.
Teams & Records:
Virginia Tech (2-5 overall, 1-2 in the ACC)
California (5-2 overall, 2-1 in the ACC)
Broadcast: ESPN

Virginia Tech has been beaten up on the injury front so far this year. They’ve had to play seven weeks straight and you could see that starting to take a toll in the last two games. Luckily, the bye week comes at the right time and it’s an opportunity to get healthy and regroup before a tough stretch to end the season.

Virginia Tech needs to ride their running backs in this game. They need Terion Stewart and Marcellous Hawkins to come up big after a bye week. Kyron Drones doesn’t need to be throwing the ball all over the field this week. Line up and run the ball as many ways as Phillip Montgomery can come up with. This needs to be a run-heavy game for the Hokies.

The Hokies defense needs to be good on third down and in the red zone. Two areas they have struggled with this year. Cal is a team that is good at slowly and methodically working the ball down the field. The Hokies need to keep those drives short or hold them to field goals in the red zone.

A fast start would be huge. Cal has never been to Lane Stadium. Enter Sandman and the early energy will be a new experience for them. The Hokies need to use that early momentum to set the tone. Racing out to an early lead would be huge for their chances this week.

Sometimes I need to look at games like I’m not a Virginia Tech fan. This week it’d be easy to say well, Cal has the better team and better record, so they’re going to win. As Lee Corso would say, not so fast my friend. I like that Virginia Tech is coming off a bye and that Cal has a short week and has to travel cross-country. That’s not easy for any team. This is what I’d call a scheduled win for Virginia Tech. Bye week and at home vs short week and cross-country travel. The talent level is close so I’ll give the nod to the rested home team.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 27, California 24

📈 Betting Line & Market

Spread: VT -4.5

Total: 49.5–50 (slight upward creep from open)

Moneyline: VT ~-185 to -205 / Cal +160 to +170

Implied win prob: VT 65–67%; Cal ~37%

SP+ (Bill Connelly, ESPN)
Ratings put Cal ~No. 75 and VT ~No. 91
Projected score: Cal 26–25 (Cal ~52% win prob). Market lists VT as the favorite, so SP+ is +5.5 points off the spread (Cal +1 vs. market VT -4.5).

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Georgia Tech vs Virginia Tech Preview and Prediction

Date/Location: Saturday, October 11th 3:30pm ET
Channel: ACC Network
Venue: Bobby Dodd Stadium, Atlanta, GA

Virginia Tech played a very sloppy game against Wake Forest. That was a winnable game that the Hokies let slip away. The margin of error is slim this year. Mental mistakes are amplified when you don’t have the offense to come back and make up for those mistakes. If the Hokies want to win games down the stretch, they need to play smart football.

Georgia Tech is 5-0 but it’s a pretty shaky 5-0. They love to play to the level of their opponents. Which is a good sign for the Hokies. This is an immensely talented offense with Haynes King at quarterback and Jamal Haynes at running back. If I was Sam Siefkis, I’d be losing sleep over finding ways to stop Haynes King running the ball. He’s a very effective runner and the Hokies have had trouble with running QBs this year.

Georgia Tech has a good but not great defense. They’ve been bend but don’t break. The Hokies should be able to move the ball in this game but they need to cash in with touchdowns in the red zone. Field goals aren’t going to cut it. The Hokies need to get Kyron Drones on the run and out of the pocket to give him the chance to make plays downfield. He can’t sit back in the pocket this week. He needs to stretch the defense with his running ability.

The Hokies need to control the line of scrimmage. They need to get after Haynes King when Georgia Tech has the ball, and they need to give Kyron Drones time to the throw when the Hokies are on offense. The Hokies did a good job of that against NC State and took a step back last week. They need to get back to owning the line of scrimmage this week. Drones is at his best when he has time to throw.

If the Hokies want to have a chance this week, they need to stop explosive passing plays downfield. The Hokies could also use a big special teams play or turnover to flip the field. Ultimately, this looks a like tough game to me. The Hokies will do a good job of stopping Jamal Haynes but I think Haynes King will run wild on the ground. The Hokies will be able to score some points but unfortunately, I think they’ll be chasing the game most of the afternoon.

Prediction: Georgia Tech 35, Virginia Tech 21

📈 Betting Line & Market

  • Georgia Tech holds a 79.8 % win projection via ESPN’s FPI model.
  • However, SP+ (Connelly) projects a more lopsided margin in Georgia Tech’s favor: Virginia Tech is given just a 15% chance to win, with a model margin ~16.3 points in favor of Georgia Tech.
  • For totals, SP+ sets the over/under at 55.5, and its pick leans under.

    Summary of implied lines (based on models & past trends):
  • Spread / margin pick: Georgia Tech by ~14–17 points
  • Total (over/under): ~55.5, lean Under