Tag: ncaa

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Virginia Tech vs. California Preview: Time to Bounce Back in Berkeley

Virginia Tech had every opportunity to beat Pitt Friday night. The Hokies outgained the Panthers by more than 200 yards, Ethan Grunkemeyer threw for 434 yards and Virginia Tech had a chance to win the game with a field goal on the final play.

Instead, Pitt left Blacksburg with a 35-33 win and Virginia Tech left with its first loss of the James Franklin era. That’s college football.Now we find out how this team responds.

Virginia Tech at California
Saturday, October 10 — 3:30 PM ET
Databricks Field at California Memorial Stadium — Berkeley, CA
TV: ACC Network
Records: Virginia Tech 4-1 (1-1 ACC), California 2-3 (1-1 ACC)
Betting Line: Virginia Tech roughly -9.5 | O/U 53.5

This is Virginia Tech’s longest regular-season trip of the year and Cal’s Homecoming weekend. It’s also exactly the kind of game Virginia Tech has spent the last decade finding increasingly creative ways to lose.

Cross-country flight. Noon Pacific kickoff. Weird stadium. Opponent on a losing streak. Virginia Tech coming off an emotional Friday night loss. Wonderful. The difference is Virginia Tech should be considerably better than Cal.

Moving On From Pitt

There are two ways to look at what happened Friday night. The first is that Virginia Tech lost at home, turned the ball over, gave up 35 points and wasted an opportunity to start 5-0.

The other is that Virginia Tech produced 578 yards of offense against an undefeated Pitt team, Grunkemeyer threw for 434 yards and three touchdowns, and the Hokies were one kick away from winning despite making enough mistakes to lose approximately four different football games.

Virginia Tech is averaging 41.2 points and 469.8 yards per game through five games. Grunkemeyer has completed roughly 74% of his passes for 1,446 yards, 11 touchdowns and two interceptions. The Hokies are averaging more than 314 passing yards per game.

The Pitt game actually reinforced that more than anything. After struggling to throw the football in a monsoon at Boston College, Grunkemeyer immediately responded with the best statistical passing performance of his Virginia Tech career.

The problem was everything around it. Turnovers. Defensive breakdowns. Missed opportunities. A missed field goal. Virginia Tech doesn’t need to dramatically change what it is doing offensively. It needs to stop helping the other team.

Meet the Golden Bears

Cal is 2-3, and things are not going particularly well in Berkeley. The Bears opened the season with a 45-24 loss to UCLA, rebounded by beating Syracuse and Wagner, then lost 24-10 to Clemson before falling 39-31 at UNLV last weekend. That’s two straight losses and 63 points allowed over those two games.

Cal is averaging 27 points per game while allowing 26.6. The Bears are throwing for roughly 301 yards per game but rushing for only 95 yards per game, one of the worst marks in the country.

Cal has been pretty good defending the pass on a down-to-down basis but has been terrible against explosive plays and vulnerable against the run. Opponents are averaging more than five yards per rushing attempt.

That should get Jeffrey Overton’s attention.

This is also a Cal team that committed 16 penalties against UNLV. Sixteen.

Virginia Tech has certainly demonstrated an ability to make life unnecessarily difficult for itself, but Cal appears willing to participate in that competition.

Who Is Playing Quarterback for Cal?

This is the biggest question entering Saturday.

Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele left the UNLV game late in the second quarter after taking a hard hit and hitting his head on the turf. He was medically cleared to return, but Cal head coach Tosh Lupoi kept him out as a precaution.

Before leaving, Sagapolutele was 19-of-27 for 195 yards and a touchdown. Backup Jackson Brousseau came in and was actually pretty good. He completed 19-of-32 passes for 200 yards and two touchdowns as Cal rallied from a 24-7 halftime deficit. So Virginia Tech has to prepare for both.

Sagapolutele has thrown for 1,180 yards, eight touchdowns and five interceptions this season. He’s talented and capable of creating explosive plays — his 91-yard touchdown pass to Taimane Purcell against UNLV was the second-longest pass play in Cal history.

But he has also been inconsistent. That’s where Virginia Tech needs to take advantage. The Hokies have struggled at times with explosive passing plays and coverage breakdowns. We saw it against Maryland. We saw it again against Pitt.

Cal’s inability to consistently run the football should allow Virginia Tech to make whichever quarterback starts prove he can sustain drives through the air. Don’t give up the 70-yard touchdown. Make Cal go 12 plays. Eventually, this offense tends to make a mistake.

Feed Jeffrey Overton

Cal is allowing 187 rushing yards per game and more than five yards per carry. Virginia Tech has Jeffrey Overton.

Overton has 455 rushing yards this season while averaging 5.9 yards per carry. We already watched him completely take over the Boston College game with 209 yards and the 76-yard touchdown that rescued Virginia Tech in the fourth quarter.

Pitt did a much better job preventing Virginia Tech from controlling the game on the ground. Cal isn’t Pitt. Virginia Tech should make the Bears prove they can stop Overton before asking Grunkemeyer to throw the football 40 times again.

That doesn’t mean being conservative.It means forcing Cal to devote resources to stopping Overton, then letting Grunkemeyer attack a secondary that suddenly has to worry about Luke Reynolds, Que’Sean Brown and Ayden Greene in space.

Virginia Tech has enough offensive weapons that Cal shouldn’t be able to take everything away. Make them pick their poison.

Ethan Grunkemeyer Should Have Opportunities

Grunkemeyer now has 1,446 passing yards through five games. Virginia Tech has spent years begging for a functional passing game. Now the Hokies have a quarterback completing approximately three-quarters of his passes while averaging nearly 290 passing yards per game. Against Pitt, he threw for 434.

There were mistakes — including two interceptions — but the larger takeaway should be pretty obvious. Virginia Tech can throw the football. Luke Reynolds continues to be one of the most important pieces of the offense with 37 catches for 373 yards and four touchdowns. Que’Sean Brown, Ayden Greene and Overton give Grunkemeyer multiple other options.

Cal’s pass defense has produced good efficiency numbers, so I don’t expect another effortless 400-yard performance. But if the Bears have to bring an extra defender into the box to stop Overton, Virginia Tech should get favorable matchups outside.

The Cross-Country Factor

Here’s the part that makes me nervous. Virginia Tech is traveling approximately 2,500 miles across three time zones to play a 12:30 PM local kickoff.

Virginia Tech also played Friday night, which gives the Hokies an extra day to prepare, but this is still the furthest they will travel during the regular season.

Virginia Tech has already gone to Maryland and Boston College and won. The Hokies have demonstrated that they can function away from Lane Stadium.

Cal, meanwhile, has lost three of five games and is 1-2 at home. If Virginia Tech wants to be taken seriously as an ACC contender, the travel excuse doesn’t work here.

SP+ Likes Virginia Tech

This is one of the more interesting parts of the matchup. Virginia Tech is currently around No. 28 nationally in SP+, while Cal has fallen into the 80s.

An SP+-based projection makes Virginia Tech approximately a 12.5-point favorite even after accounting for Cal’s home-field advantage, with roughly a 78% win probability.

That’s a pretty significant gap. For comparison, SP+ viewed the Pitt game as essentially a toss-up. This one isn’t. The model sees Virginia Tech as substantially better offensively, better defensively and slightly better on special teams. Obviously models don’t have to sit on an airplane for five hours. But analytically, Virginia Tech should win this football game.

Betting Analysis

The betting market isn’t quite as bullish on Virginia Tech as SP+. Virginia Tech opened around a 10.5-point favorite at some sportsbooks, with the line settling around Tech -9.5 at several books as of Tuesday morning. The total is around 53.5.

Cal struggles to run the football. Virginia Tech should be able to run the football. The Hokies have a significant offensive advantage and Cal is coming off consecutive losses in which it allowed 24 and 39 points.

The obvious concern is the travel. But over four quarters, I think Virginia Tech’s offense creates too many problems.

Three Keys to the Game

1. Run the football

This doesn’t need to be complicated. Cal has struggled against the run. Virginia Tech has Jeffrey Overton. Give him the football. If Cal commits extra defenders to stopping him, let Grunkemeyer punish them.

2. Eliminate the stupid mistakes

Virginia Tech was good enough to beat Pitt. Virginia Tech also did enough stupid things to lose to Pitt. Both can be true.

Turnovers, coverage busts and special-teams mistakes turn games you should win comfortably into fourth-quarter coin flips. Don’t give Cal free possessions and don’t give up cheap touchdowns.

3. Start fast

The easiest way to eliminate the weirdness of a cross-country road game is to immediately make it a football game. Score early. Force a three-and-out. Get Overton going. Don’t let Cal hang around for two hours.

The Pick

I don’t think Cal is terrible. Sagapolutele is talented if he plays. Brousseau showed against UNLV that he can move the offense. Cal has enough skill talent to create some explosive plays, and traveling across the country is always going to add some uncertainty.

But Virginia Tech is better. More importantly, I think the Pitt loss actually gives us another reason to believe that.

Virginia Tech played poorly in several important areas Friday night and still put up 578 yards against an undefeated Power 4 opponent. Grunkemeyer threw for 434 yards. The Hokies had the ball with an opportunity to win the game at the end.

That isn’t the Virginia Tech team we’ve been watching for the last several years. Now comes the next step. Good teams lose games. Good teams don’t allow one loss to become two.

I think Virginia Tech establishes Overton early, Grunkemeyer hits enough explosive plays to push the game into the 30s and the defense forces Cal into a couple of mistakes.

It might be uncomfortable for a quarter. Maybe even a half. Then the talent difference takes over.

Virginia Tech 38, California 24

Hokies bounce back and move to 5-1.

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Virginia Tech vs. Pitt Preview: Friday Night in Blacksburg

Well, here we are. Virginia Tech is 4-0. Pitt is 4-0. Both teams are 1-0 in the ACC. And on Friday night, under the lights in a sold-out Lane Stadium, somebody is leaving with their first loss of the season.

After surviving the remnants of a hurricane in Chestnut Hill last weekend, Virginia Tech returns home for what is easily the biggest game of the James Franklin era so far.

Pitt at Virginia Tech
Friday, October 2 — 7:00 PM ET
Lane Stadium — Blacksburg, VA
TV: ESPN

Virginia Tech’s 21-14 win over Boston College wasn’t particularly pretty. The Hokies trailed 14-6 in the fourth quarter, the passing game struggled in ridiculous weather conditions, and for the first time this season Tech found itself legitimately staring at a loss. Then Jeffrey Overton happened.

Overton finished with 209 rushing yards, including a 76-yard fourth-quarter touchdown that put Virginia Tech ahead for good. The performance earned him ACC Running Back of the Week honors and pushed his season average to 102.3 rushing yards per game, second-best in the conference.

The result was important for reasons beyond getting to 4-0. Virginia Tech had blown out VMI and Old Dominion and controlled most of the Maryland game. Boston College was different. Things went wrong. Tech fell behind. The weather eliminated a big chunk of the offense. And the Hokies still found a way to win. Now the difficulty level goes up considerably.

Meet the Panthers

Pitt enters Blacksburg at 4-0 after absolutely vaporizing Bucknell 59-0. The Panthers produced a school-record 766 yards of offense, including 574 passing yards, while tying the ACC record with eight touchdown passes. That’s probably worth mentioning.

Pitt is averaging 39.3 points and 523.8 yards per game, including 347.3 through the air. Defensively, the Panthers have been even more impressive, allowing only 8.5 points and 244.5 yards per game. They’ve held every opponent to 14 points or fewer. There is, however, an enormous asterisk attached to those numbers.

Pitt has played all four games at home, and Friday night represents its first road game of the season. More importantly, quarterback Mason Heintschel’s eye-popping touchdown numbers have largely been accumulated against lesser competition; as of Monday, none of his 13 touchdown passes had come against a Power Four defense. So Friday night should tell us considerably more about both teams.

The Mason Heintschel Problem

If there’s one player Virginia Tech fans should know before Friday night, it’s Pitt quarterback Mason Heintschel. The sophomore has completed 67.7% of his passes for 1,191 yards, 13 touchdowns and just one interception. Against Bucknell, he went nuclear: 403 yards and six touchdowns without throwing an interception.

Pitt also has legitimate receiving depth. Thirteen different Panthers caught a pass against Bucknell, and five caught touchdowns.

This isn’t an offense where Virginia Tech can simply take away one receiver. The encouraging part for Tech is that Brent Pry’s defense has generally done a good job preventing traditional rushing attacks from taking over games. Pitt averages 176.5 rushing yards per game, but the matchup Virginia Tech really needs to win is obvious:

Make Pitt earn everything through the air while getting pressure on Heintschel.

The worst possible scenario is allowing Pitt to establish the run, stay ahead of the chains and let Heintschel operate comfortably off play action. Friday night needs to be the first time this season that the sophomore quarterback looks uncomfortable. Lane Stadium can help with that.

Pitt’s Defense Is Legit

This is also easily the best defense Virginia Tech has faced. Pitt is giving up only 53.3 rushing yards per game and 244.5 total yards per game. Opponents are averaging just 4.2 yards per play.

That’s where the Jeffrey Overton matchup becomes fascinating. Virginia Tech just rode Overton through a monsoon for 209 yards against Boston College. He’s averaging more than 100 yards per game and has emerged as one of the most explosive players in the ACC.

Pitt knows exactly what’s coming. Pat Narduzzi specifically praised Virginia Tech’s offensive line and Overton this week and described defending Tech’s rushing attack as a “chess match.” He also pointed out the multiple tempos Virginia Tech uses offensively and the different ways the Hokies deploy tight end Luke Reynolds. This is where Ethan Grunkemeyer becomes important.

Time for Grunkemeyer to Make Some Plays

I’m willing to throw most of the Boston College passing numbers into the Atlantic Ocean. Grunkemeyer finished with just 147 passing yards, but trying to evaluate a passing game played in rain with winds approaching 40 mph is mostly pointless.

Before that game, we’d seen what this passing attack could do. Grunkemeyer threw for 327 yards against Old Dominion and 314 against Maryland. Luke Reynolds topped 100 receiving yards in both games.

Virginia Tech probably isn’t running for 250 yards against Pitt. That means there are going to be moments Friday night when Grunkemeyer has to make a throw on third-and-7. Those are the plays that could determine the game.

If Pitt has to respect Grunkemeyer, Reynolds, Que’Sean Brown and the rest of Virginia Tech’s passing attack, Overton becomes considerably more dangerous. If the Panthers can load the box and turn Virginia Tech one-dimensional? That’s a problem.

The Lane Stadium Factor

This isn’t just another home game. It’s Friday night. It’s a sellout. It’s a Stripe Effect game. It’s two undefeated ACC teams. And Pitt hasn’t played a road game this season.

Even Narduzzi acknowledged this week that Blacksburg will be one of the loudest environments Pitt encounters all season and that the noise will require adjustments to communication and snap counts.

That’s significant because Pitt hasn’t had to deal with anything remotely resembling this environment in 2026. Virginia Tech needs to weaponize that immediately.

Get Pitt into a third-and-long on the opening possession. Force a false start. Make Heintschel burn a timeout. Make a young quarterback communicate with 65,000 people screaming at him while Enter Sandman is still rattling around his skull. That’s home-field advantage.

SP+ Says This Is Basically a Toss-Up

This is where things get interesting.

Current SP+ data has Pitt around No. 20 nationally and Virginia Tech around No. 28. On a neutral field, the model views Pitt as roughly 2.4 points better.

Move the game to Lane Stadium, however, and SP+ projects essentially a coin flip: Virginia Tech by 0.6 points, with roughly a 51% win probability.

That’s substantially different from the betting market. And I tend to think SP+ has the right idea about the closeness of this matchup. Pitt’s statistical profile is excellent. But Virginia Tech has already played two Power Four opponents away from home, while Pitt hasn’t left Pittsburgh. Friday should tell us whether those Panthers numbers are real.

Betting Analysis

The market opened with Virginia Tech around a 5.5-point favorite, although the line has moved around depending on the sportsbook. As of September 28, books were showing Tech anywhere from roughly -3.5 to -6, with totals generally in the low-to-mid 50s.

That’s a pretty significant disagreement between the market and the analytics. SP+ essentially says pick ’em with Virginia Tech receiving a small home-field edge. Another independent power-rating model made Virginia Tech only about a half-point favorite after accounting for Lane Stadium.

So if you’re laying close to a touchdown with Virginia Tech, you’re making a pretty strong statement that Lane Stadium, Pitt’s untested schedule and Tech’s offensive ceiling matter more than the underlying efficiency numbers.

I’m much more comfortable with Virginia Tech around -3 than I am around -6. The total is also interesting. Pitt’s defense hasn’t allowed more than 14 points all season, while Virginia Tech is averaging 43.3 points per game. Something has to give. I don’t think this turns into a 45-42 shootout.

Three Keys to the Game

1. Make Heintschel uncomfortable

He’s thrown 13 touchdowns and one interception because he’s largely been operating from clean situations. Virginia Tech needs to change that. Pressure him, disguise coverages and make him prove he can execute in a hostile road environment.

2. Stay patient with Overton

Pitt’s rushing-defense numbers are ridiculous. That doesn’t mean Virginia Tech should abandon the run if Overton has 24 yards after eight carries. Eventually, he’s going to get an opportunity. Boston College learned that lesson approximately 76 yards too late.

3. Win third down

This feels like a game where five or six plays will determine the outcome. Third-and-medium situations are going to be enormous. Virginia Tech can’t continually give Heintschel extra possessions, and Grunkemeyer is going to have to convert some uncomfortable third downs against the best defense he’s faced.

The Pick

This is the first game on Virginia Tech’s schedule where I can legitimately talk myself into either team winning. Pitt might be really good.

The Panthers have been dominant statistically. Their defense has been outstanding. Heintschel looks like a legitimate ACC quarterback. And Pat Narduzzi has certainly had success against Virginia Tech before — Pitt has won three of the past four meetings. But Friday night is an entirely different test. Pitt has spent the first month of the season at home.

Now a sophomore quarterback has to walk into a sold-out Lane Stadium at night against an undefeated Virginia Tech team that just discovered it can take a punch and keep fighting. I think the game stays close into the fourth quarter. Overton breaks one. Grunkemeyer makes a couple of throws when Virginia Tech absolutely has to have them. And the defense forces Heintschel into his first major mistake of the season.

Virginia Tech 27, Pitt 23

Hokies move to 5-0.

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Virginia Tech vs Maryland Preview and Prediction

Date & Time: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 7:30 p.m. ET
Location: SECU Stadium, College Park, Maryland
Broadcast: FS1
Records: Virginia Tech (2-0), Maryland (2-0)

Well, here we go. Virginia Tech spent the first two weeks of the James Franklin era beating the absolute hell out of teams it was supposed to beat. The Hokies beat VMI 73-3 and followed it up with a 44-21 win over Old Dominion that wasn’t really as close as the final score suggests.

Now we get to find out if Virginia Tech is actually good. The Hokies travel to College Park Saturday night for their first road game of the season against a Maryland team that is also 2-0. This is exactly the game I circled before the season as the first real measuring stick for Virginia Tech. VMI told us basically nothing. ODU told us considerably more. Maryland should tell us whether Virginia Tech is ready to start beating competent Power 4 football teams again.

And because college football apparently requires every game to have some sort of weird personal storyline, James Franklin is going back to Maryland. Franklin coached at Maryland under Ralph Friedgen, was once designated the program’s head-coach-in-waiting and then spent 12 years at Penn State routinely beating the Terps. Franklin went 9-2 against Maryland at Penn State, and his relationship with Mike Locksley hasn’t always exactly been warm and fuzzy.

So, yeah. This should be fun.

Virginia Tech Is 2-0, But Now It Matters

I don’t think you could have realistically asked for a much better start to the Franklin era.

Virginia Tech has scored 117 points in two games. Ethan Grunkemeyer looks like a legitimate Power 4 quarterback. The defensive line is creating pressure. Luke Reynolds looks like a potential star. Most importantly, Virginia Tech has looked like the better football team against teams it was supposed to be better than.

That sounds incredibly basic. It has also not always been incredibly basic around here. Against ODU, Grunkemeyer completed 31-of-42 passes for 327 yards and two touchdowns. Reynolds caught eight passes for 108 yards and two scores. Virginia Tech built a 34-6 halftime lead and essentially ended the game before everyone had finished their second stadium beer.

There were still problems. Virginia Tech ran for only 89 yards. There were penalties. The Hokies weren’t particularly efficient in the red zone. And after building that huge halftime lead, they got sloppy. You can get away with that against Old Dominion. You probably can’t get away with it Saturday night.

Maryland Is Pretty Good

Maryland has also done exactly what it was supposed to do. The Terps opened the season by destroying Hampton 62-0 and then went on the road and beat UConn 38-14. Maryland has now won 20 consecutive non-conference games, which is legitimately impressive regardless of who they’ve played.

The biggest concern for Virginia Tech is sophomore quarterback Malik Washington. Washington was outstanding against UConn, completing 34-of-41 passes for 347 yards and two touchdowns. At one point he completed 18 consecutive passes, and both Na’eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding and Chris Durr Jr. went over 100 receiving yards.

That’s a real passing attack. Virginia Tech hasn’t seen anything remotely like it yet. VMI couldn’t throw the football. ODU had some success, but Virginia Tech was able to dictate the game with its defensive front. Maryland is going to spread Virginia Tech out and make the secondary defend the entire field. This is where we start learning how good this defense actually is.

Ethan Grunkemeyer vs. Malik Washington

This might be the game. Two sophomore quarterbacks. Two former highly regarded recruits. Two guys who have looked really good through the first two weeks. Grunkemeyer has been almost exactly what Virginia Tech needed. He isn’t playing hero ball. He’s distributing the football, getting through his reads and taking what defenses give him. Against ODU he completed passes to 11 different receivers.

The biggest revelation has probably been Reynolds. Virginia Tech suddenly has a tight end who can become the centerpiece of the passing game. Reynolds is a matchup problem in the middle of the field, and Maryland is going to have to decide how much attention it wants to devote to him versus Ayden Greene and Virginia Tech’s receivers.

Washington presents a completely different problem for Virginia Tech. UConn tried to pressure him and play aggressively in coverage. Washington responded by getting the ball out quickly and letting his receivers create yards after the catch. Maryland generated 475 total yards against UConn, including 350 through the air.

Virginia Tech can’t give him easy completions all night. Make him hold the football. That’s where Mylachi Williams, Cortez Harris, Aycen Stevens and the rest of this defensive front become extremely important.

Virginia Tech Has to Run the Football

This is probably my biggest concern. Virginia Tech ran the ball extremely well against VMI. Then it basically disappeared against ODU.

The Hokies finished with only 89 rushing yards Saturday. Some of that was because ODU clearly committed resources to stopping the run and Virginia Tech correctly responded by throwing the football. Starting center Kyle Altuner was also unavailable.

That’s fine for one week. It can’t become a trend. Maryland’s defensive front just held UConn to 2.2 yards per carry and recorded five sacks. If Virginia Tech becomes completely one-dimensional Saturday, this gets considerably harder.

I’m not saying Marcellous Hawkins and Jeffrey Overton need to combine for 200 yards. They don’t. But Virginia Tech needs enough of a running game that Maryland has to respect play action and can’t spend the entire night trying to make Grunkemeyer beat pressure on third-and-8. Give me 140-150 rushing yards and I’ll feel pretty good about Virginia Tech’s chances.

Virginia Tech’s Pass Rush vs. Maryland’s Offensive Line

This is the matchup I’m most interested in watching. Virginia Tech’s defensive line looks considerably faster than it did a year ago. The Hokies recorded five sacks against ODU, and Williams, Harris and Stevens were consistently disruptive.

Maryland allowed only one sack against UConn. Something has to give. Washington completed more than 80% of his passes against UConn because he was comfortable. Virginia Tech cannot allow him to sit back there and play seven-on-seven.

Pressure him without blitzing. If Virginia Tech can consistently get pressure with four, Brent Pry can keep extra defenders in coverage and make Washington work through tighter windows. That’s probably the defensive formula.

Key Statistical Matchups

Maryland passing offense vs. Virginia Tech secondary

This is easily the biggest test Virginia Tech’s secondary has faced. Washington just threw for 347 yards while completing 83% of his passes against UConn. Gladding had 130 receiving yards, and Maryland had two receivers eclipse 100 yards.

Virginia Tech doesn’t necessarily need to shut that down. It needs to prevent the easy stuff from becoming explosive plays. Tackle. Make Maryland put together 10-play drives. Eventually the pass rush should create an opportunity for a sack, holding penalty or turnover.

Virginia Tech rushing offense vs. Maryland run defense

Virginia Tech: 89 rushing yards against ODU. Maryland: 2.2 yards per carry allowed against UConn. Not ideal! The Hokies don’t need to dominate this matchup, but they cannot lose it badly.

Third down

This feels like one of those games where third down will tell the story. If Virginia Tech consistently gets Maryland into third-and-7, the defensive line has a chance to take over. If Maryland is living in third-and-2 because Washington is completing six-yard passes on first down, it’s going to be a long night.

Same thing offensively. Keep Grunkemeyer out of obvious passing situations. Very complicated analysis here.

The James Franklin Factor

Normally I wouldn’t spend much time talking about coaching history in a game preview. This one is different.

Franklin has an extensive history with Maryland. He coached there twice, was supposed to eventually replace Ralph Friedgen and then spent more than a decade at Penn State turning Maryland into one of his favorite punching bags.

He went 9-2 against Maryland as Penn State’s head coach.

There was also the 2024 game when Penn State scored a late touchdown in a 44-7 win and Locksley publicly criticized Franklin afterward. Franklin basically responded that his job was to score points. So I don’t think these guys are exchanging Christmas cards.

I also don’t think Franklin is going to let Virginia Tech walk into this game unprepared. This is the advantage of hiring someone who has coached big road games before. Virginia Tech is going into a night game against a Power 4 opponent with a coaching staff that understands exactly what that environment looks like.

SP+ / FPI

This is much closer to a true toss-up than either of Virginia Tech’s first two games. That shouldn’t be surprising. Before the season, I had Maryland listed as one of Virginia Tech’s toss-up games and specifically called it the first game where we’d actually learn something about this team. That hasn’t changed.

Virginia Tech entered the season around the mid-30s nationally in both SP+ and FPI. The early results should improve the Hokies’ profile, but Maryland has also exceeded expectations through two weeks.

The computers aren’t going to see an enormous difference between these teams. And neither do I. This feels like a one-score game.

What I’m Looking For

This is the first time this season where I’m not just looking at how Virginia Tech wins. I just want them to win.

Can Grunkemeyer play the same way on the road that he’s played in Lane Stadium?

Can Virginia Tech run the football against a legitimate Power 4 defensive front?

Can the defensive line make Malik Washington uncomfortable?

Can the secondary tackle Maryland’s receivers in space?

Can Virginia Tech finally stop committing unnecessary penalties?

And can James Franklin win his first road game as Virginia Tech’s head coach?

Virginia Tech doesn’t have to win this game to have a successful season. But this is exactly the kind of game Virginia Tech eventually needs to start winning again.

Maryland isn’t Ohio State.

They’re not Georgia.

They’re not Clemson.

They’re a solid Power 4 football program playing at home. If Virginia Tech wants to become nationally relevant again, you have to beat teams like Maryland.

Prediction

I don’t think this is easy. Maryland is better than either team Virginia Tech has played. Washington is going to make plays. The Terps will probably hit a couple of explosive passes, and I don’t expect Virginia Tech to build another 28-point halftime lead.

But I trust Virginia Tech’s defensive front. I also trust Grunkemeyer considerably more than I expected to at this point in the season. That’s ultimately the difference for me.

Virginia Tech gets enough pressure on Washington to force a turnover or two. Grunkemeyer continues to efficiently distribute the football. Reynolds makes another handful of big catches, and Virginia Tech finally gets a little more production from the running game.

It’ll be uncomfortable. It’ll probably be stupid at some point. It’s Virginia Tech football. But Franklin goes back to College Park and gets the win.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 31, Maryland 27

Virginia Tech moves to 3-0. And then things start getting interesting.

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How I Did With My Predictions This Year and ACC Final Thoughts

Here’s a link to my preseason predictions: https://treadmillhorse.com/2025/08/20/2025-virginia-tech-season-preview/

A historically bad year with my predictions, where I went 7-5 in the preseason and 8-4 with my week-to-week predictions. But I did go 6-0 with my week-to-week predictions in the second half of the season. It took me a bit to get a feel for who this team actually was. Hopefully, in the future I can predict more wins and fewer losses.

GamePreseason PredictionGame Week PredictionResult
South Carolina
Vanderbilt
Old Dominion
Wofford
at NC State
Wake Forest
at Georgia Tech
California
Louisville
at Florida State
Miami
at Virginia
Prediction Record7-58-4
Virginia Tech Game by Game Predictions

Here’s a link to my preseason ACC Predictions: https://treadmillhorse.com/2025/08/23/preseason-acc-predictions/

Final thoughts on the ACC Standings:

Final ACC Standings Comments

7-1 (10-3)		Virginia found their footing this year and looked like a legit team. Unfortunately, they couldn’t find their best game in the ACC Championship Game.

6-2 (8-4)		This is a team (like Virginia) that benefited from a soft ACC schedule. Massive disappointment the last week of the season with a chance to go to Charlotte.

6-2 (10-2)		Miami needs to stop dropping games they shouldn’t. Other than that, they represented the ACC very well in non-conference games.

6-2 (9-3)		This could’ve been a CFP team before they lost 3 of their last 4 games.

6-2 (9-3)		Overall, a pretty good year but that loss to WVU looks pretty bad in hindsight.

6-2 (8-5)		The ACC champs. Probably the most unlikely ACC champs since Wake won the league in ’06. Manny Diaz continues to impress.

6-2 (7-5)		One of the most up and down seasons in the league. At least they have a quarterback.

4-4 (7-5)		Disappointing year by Clemson’s standards but at least they won their last four games.

4-4 (7-5)		As Jekyll and Hyde as your going to find in this league.

4-4 (8-4)		Look out because Wake Forest has 2026 sleeper written all over them.

4-4 (8-4)		After a great start, collapsed down the stretch in ACC play.

3-5 (4-8)		Generally, not good but beating Cal the way they did was impressive.

2-6 (5-7)		Salvaged a season that looked like it was headed down the toilet. You have to wonder if they are going to regret not firing Mike Norvell this year.

2-6 (4-8)		Probably the biggest disappointment in the league. Year 1 of Bill Belichick was a bust.

2-6 (3-9)		Pretty bad all the way around but they may have won the coaching carousel this year.

1-7 (2-10)		Won the first game and the last game and pretty bad in between with some moral victories sprinkled in.

1-7 (3-9)		What I’ll remember are the performative post-game wind sprints and losing to Notre Dame 70-7.
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Virginia vs Virginia Tech Preview and Prediction

Date & Time: Saturday, November 29, 2025 at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Location: Scott Stadium, Charlottesville, Va.
Series: Virginia Tech leads 62–38–5
Streaks: VT has dominated the rivalry for two decades, winning 17 of the last 18 meetings.

This rivalry is finally starting to develop some juice with Virginia having a great regular season and Virginia Tech hiring a big-time football coach. Both programs are pumping serious money into football and it looks like football in the Commonwealth is about to take off.

This game will be decided by quarterback play. On paper, UVA has the better QB in Chandler Morris. Virginia Tech has a couple of talented guys in Kyron Drones and Pop Watson but both have been inconsistent so far this year. To win, Virginia Tech is going to have to get an A-level performance out of one or both of their QBs.

Virginia has balance when they have the football. They can run it and throw it well. They have a couple of running backs with a good yard per carry average and they have a bunch of reliable targets in the passing game. This isn’t an offense that’s going to wow you but they’ve got the pieces to slowly and steadily move the ball downfield consistently.

Virginia is only giving up 21.2 points per game this year. That’s good for 37th nationally. They are a solid defense that likes to lock teams down on third down. They are 6th in the country at forcing stops on the third down. They only allow 29.7% conversion on third down. If the Hokies want to move the ball, they should look for big plays in the passing game. UVA is susceptible to giving up the big play on the backend of their defense.

These games are always weird. It’s a cliche but throw the stats out the window. Tech always plays above their weight class in this matchup and Virginia tends to make uncharacteristic mistakes in this game. A couple of things I like for Virginia Tech in this game a) UVA has played one of the weakest schedules in the ACC this year b) they are coming off a bye last week which can sometimes leads to some early rust on offense. Virginia might get off to a slow start, so Virginia Tech will have to take advantage of that. Vegas is giving UVA too much credit in this one. It ends in a one-possession game but just like the 2019 game, Virginia has the better QB and UVA wins by a touchdown.

Prediction: Virginia 28, Virginia Tech 21

📈 Betting Line & Market

  • Spread: Virginia -9.5 vs Virginia Tech +9.5
  • Total: 52.5–53.5 (most commonly 52.5 or 53)
  • Moneyline: Around UVA -360 / VT +285

📐 Advanced Analytics vs. Market

SP+ (Bill Connelly / ESPN):

  • Gives UVA a 92% win probability and a projected score of 38–16 (UVA by 22).

ESPN FPI:

  • Has UVA at 80.1% win probability, VT at 19.9%.

Compare that to the betting market:

  • Market implied UVA win chance (around -360) ≈ mid-70s %
  • Analytics (SP+, FPI) say 80–92% → they see UVA as an even bigger favorite than the line suggests.
  • Books: UVA by ~9.5
  • SP+: UVA by ~22
  • FPI: UVA by something like 10–13, depending on home-field assumption.

🧠 Big-Picture Summary

  • Market: UVA -9.5, 52.5 total, ML around -360.
  • Analytics: Strongly favor UVA (80–92% win probability, SP+ by 22).
  • Risk factors: Rivalry chaos, cold weather, UVA’s LB injury

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Miami vs Virginia Tech Preview and Prediction

Date & Time: Saturday, November 22, 2025 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Location: Lane Stadium, Blacksburg, VA
Television: ESPN (play-by-play: Bob Wischusen; analyst: Louis Riddick; sideline: Kris Budden)

Virginia Tech Hokies: 3-7 overall, 2-4 in the ACC.
Miami Hurricanes: 8-2 overall, 4-2 in the ACC.

Virginia Tech got their guy. This program feels like it just got a massive wave of positive momentum behind it. So the rest of this season feels a bit like an afterthought but it’s extremely important for the players and coaches playing for next year.

Miami’s offense is explosive, particularly throwing the ball. If Carson Beck is at his best, Miami is tough to stop. They’ve got talented receivers all over the field. This is a game where the DBs have to show up and keep Beck from lighting them up downfield. This is an offense that relies on the big play, so if the Hokies can stop the chunk plays downfield, they have a shot at slowing down this offense.

The key to this game is Miami’s defense. They are top 10 defense who can absolutely stonewall the run. Miami can be beat over the top but that would rely on Kyron Drones and his receivers making plays downfield. That has been pretty inconsistent so far this year.

This game has a not-so-fast-my-friend feel to it. It’s Virginia Tech’s Senior Day. Four of the last five matchups in this series have been decided by 7 points or less. Miami has been less-than-impressive on the road this year and this is unbelievably only their third road game of the season. I’m not ready to pick the upset but it’s closer than the experts think.

Prediction: Miami 28, Virginia Tech 21

📈 Betting Line & Market

Spread: Miami -17.5 at most books (opened ~-16.5, ticked up).
Total: 48.5 (some 49.5s in the market).

Moneyline

Miami: around -950 to -1200
Virginia Tech: around +600 to +700

That translates roughly to Miami win probability ~90–92% in betting terms.

Recent performance vs ATS:

Miami: 8–2 SU, 6–4 ATS, scoring 33.7 ppg, allowing 14.2 ppg.
Virginia Tech: 3–7 SU, 2–8 ATS, scoring 23.3 ppg, allowing 30.1 ppg.
Trend: VT is 2–9 ATS last 11; Miami 8–2 SU last 10.

Raw model score:

Miami ~32 – VT ~19 → Miami -13 to -14, Total ~50–51.

Market total: 48.5.
Model total: ~51.


Both trends and matchup history lean UNDER in this series, especially in Blacksburg (UNDER in 4 of last 5 meetings at VT).

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Florida State vs Virginia Tech Preview and Prediction

Date & Time: Saturday, November 15th, 2025 at 7:30 p.m. ET
Location: Doak-Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, Florida
Matchup: Virginia Tech (3-6 overall, 2-3 in ACC) vs. Florida State (4-5 overall, 1-5 in ACC)
Television: ACC Network

Virginia Tech has a tough 3-game stretch to close the season. Florida State on the road, 18th ranked Miami at home, then close with 14th ranked Virginia on the road. This is an opportunity to build momentum for next year and for the next head coach. A lot of guys on this year’s team may not be here next year and this is an audition for the next coaching staff who will want to see who shined on this year’s team.

The Virginia Tech offense is good when they can run the ball. Can they run and control clock against Florida State? They need to get back to the formula that worked against Cal. Run your two top RBs and get Drones going in the run game. That’s the Hokies best path to moving ball against Florida State and for the rest of the season.

Virginia Tech has done a good job against Tommy Castellanos in the past when he was at Boston College. He is one of the few dual threat QBs that the Hokies have had success against. Castellanos looks like a more accomplished passer this year but the Hokies have shown they can get stops when they get pressure. A consistent pass rush would be big to securing a win this week.

When the Hokies have played the Seminoles in the past, it’s always come down to turnovers and special teams plays. This week will be no different. The team that can win the turnover battle and/or break a big special teams play will be the one who comes away with the win this week.

Florida State has been tough to figure out. They’ve won one out of their last six games. That one game was a beatdown of a pretty good Wake Forest team. They’ve played everyone else reasonably close but haven’t been able to get on the winning end of these games. They are a talented team but haven’t quite put it all together (except for the one Wake game). Virginia Tech has a decent chance in this game but they have to play a clean game. No bad turnovers or special teams snafus. All things being equal, Florida State has enough juice to win this game at home in a night game.

Prediction: Florida State 35, Virginia Tech 20

📈 Betting Line & Market

  • Moneyline: Florida State -578 (85% implied probability of a win)
  • Spread: FSU favored by roughly 12.5 to 14 points depending on book.
  • Total (Over/Under): Around 54.5 points in several books.

📊 Market Signals & What They Suggest

  • The large spread and heavy moneyline favorite status for Florida State indicates the market views them significantly stronger. The “win probability” derived from those odds (especially model‐based predictions) puts FSU at ~80%+ chance.
  • The O/U at ~54.5 suggests moderate scoring expectation — not a low‐scoring defensive slugfest, but also not expected to be a track meet above 60+.
  • Some line movement: initial spreads around –13.5 for FSU in reporting.

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Louisville vs Virginia Tech Preview and Prediction

Date & Time: Saturday, November 1, 2025 at 3 p.m. ET
Location: Lane Stadium, Blacksburg, Virginia
Matchup: Virginia Tech (3-5 overall, 2-2 in ACC) vs. Louisville (6-1 overall, 3-1 in ACC)
Television: The CW Network

Virginia Tech continues to have a talent gap but the game against Cal showed they can still be competitive. The next step is to use that momentum to score a win over a top 25 team. Louisville is very good but they are beatable. Especially playing in Lane. This is a big opportunity for Philip Montgomery and his guys to score a big win.

The Hokies need to run the same offense they did against Cal. Run the ball as many ways as Philip Montgomery can think of. Tech’s best offensive weapons are Kyron Drones, Marcellous Hawkins and Terion Stewart running the ball. Those three options give opponents more to think about than trying to force a passing game which hasn’t worked well this season. And as we saw last week, when the run game is working it opens up opportunities in the passing game.

Louisville has an explosive offense. This will be a much tougher task than Cal last week. Hopefully the defense is starting to figure it out and will be able to get some stops. Players to watch are RB Isaac Brown and WR Chris Bell. Both of those guys are game breakers and can make big plays when they get the ball in their hands.

In order to have a shot this week, the Hokies need to win the turnover battle. Capitalizing on a short field or two would help to even up this game a bit. If the turnover battle is even, that favors Louisville which should have a significant advantage when they have the ball.

Louisville looks every bit the part of a top 25 team. They beat #2 Miami two weeks ago. This is a team that scores a lot of points. They have many different ways they can beat you. The Hokies best chance is to control the clock, limit possessions and force a turnover or two. Otherwise, on paper, it looks like Louisville has a pretty significant advantage in this game.

Prediction: Louisville 34, Virginia Tech 20

📈 Betting Line & Market

  • Odds: Louisville favored by about 10.5 points, with total expected points ~ 53.5.

Market snapshot

  • Spread/Total/Moneyline: Louisville -10.5 (≈ -420), O/U 53.5, VT +325.
  • Implied score from market: ~Louisville 32 – VT 22 (solve from spread + total)
  • Implied win probs from ML: Louisville ~80.4%, VT ~23.6%. (Derived from -420/+325 posted by FOX Sports)

Public/computer angles

  • FOX/Data Skrive model: Louisville 37–19 (Louisville -10.5, Over).
  • SP+ (Bill Connelly via SI): Projects Louisville 35–19, Cardinals by 15.3 with VT win prob 17%; O/U projection 53.5. This is ~5 points stronger on Louisville than the market.
  • OddsShark computer: Predicted 34.4–24.6 (leans Louisville -10.5; predicted sum is ~59).
  • Consensus line checkers/news: Most outlets list Louisville -10.5 / 53.5; BetMGM listed -10.5 on Tuesday.

Spread:

  • Market: LOU -10.5.
  • SP+ fair line: LOU -15.3 → ~4.8 points of value toward Louisville vs. current spread.
  • Other computers (FOX/OddsShark) sit around LOU by 12–18

Total:

  • Market: 53.5.
  • SP+: 53.5 (no edge). FOX model sum 56 (slight Over).

Moneyline:

Market implies ~80% Louisville. SP+ VT win prob ~17% → aligns with the favorite being heavy.

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California vs Virginia Tech Preview and Prediction

Date & Time: Friday, October 24, 2025 at 7:30 p.m. ET
Location: Lane Stadium, Blacksburg, Virginia.
Teams & Records:
Virginia Tech (2-5 overall, 1-2 in the ACC)
California (5-2 overall, 2-1 in the ACC)
Broadcast: ESPN

Virginia Tech has been beaten up on the injury front so far this year. They’ve had to play seven weeks straight and you could see that starting to take a toll in the last two games. Luckily, the bye week comes at the right time and it’s an opportunity to get healthy and regroup before a tough stretch to end the season.

Virginia Tech needs to ride their running backs in this game. They need Terion Stewart and Marcellous Hawkins to come up big after a bye week. Kyron Drones doesn’t need to be throwing the ball all over the field this week. Line up and run the ball as many ways as Phillip Montgomery can come up with. This needs to be a run-heavy game for the Hokies.

The Hokies defense needs to be good on third down and in the red zone. Two areas they have struggled with this year. Cal is a team that is good at slowly and methodically working the ball down the field. The Hokies need to keep those drives short or hold them to field goals in the red zone.

A fast start would be huge. Cal has never been to Lane Stadium. Enter Sandman and the early energy will be a new experience for them. The Hokies need to use that early momentum to set the tone. Racing out to an early lead would be huge for their chances this week.

Sometimes I need to look at games like I’m not a Virginia Tech fan. This week it’d be easy to say well, Cal has the better team and better record, so they’re going to win. As Lee Corso would say, not so fast my friend. I like that Virginia Tech is coming off a bye and that Cal has a short week and has to travel cross-country. That’s not easy for any team. This is what I’d call a scheduled win for Virginia Tech. Bye week and at home vs short week and cross-country travel. The talent level is close so I’ll give the nod to the rested home team.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 27, California 24

📈 Betting Line & Market

Spread: VT -4.5

Total: 49.5–50 (slight upward creep from open)

Moneyline: VT ~-185 to -205 / Cal +160 to +170

Implied win prob: VT 65–67%; Cal ~37%

SP+ (Bill Connelly, ESPN)
Ratings put Cal ~No. 75 and VT ~No. 91
Projected score: Cal 26–25 (Cal ~52% win prob). Market lists VT as the favorite, so SP+ is +5.5 points off the spread (Cal +1 vs. market VT -4.5).

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Georgia Tech vs Virginia Tech Preview and Prediction

Date/Location: Saturday, October 11th 3:30pm ET
Channel: ACC Network
Venue: Bobby Dodd Stadium, Atlanta, GA

Virginia Tech played a very sloppy game against Wake Forest. That was a winnable game that the Hokies let slip away. The margin of error is slim this year. Mental mistakes are amplified when you don’t have the offense to come back and make up for those mistakes. If the Hokies want to win games down the stretch, they need to play smart football.

Georgia Tech is 5-0 but it’s a pretty shaky 5-0. They love to play to the level of their opponents. Which is a good sign for the Hokies. This is an immensely talented offense with Haynes King at quarterback and Jamal Haynes at running back. If I was Sam Siefkis, I’d be losing sleep over finding ways to stop Haynes King running the ball. He’s a very effective runner and the Hokies have had trouble with running QBs this year.

Georgia Tech has a good but not great defense. They’ve been bend but don’t break. The Hokies should be able to move the ball in this game but they need to cash in with touchdowns in the red zone. Field goals aren’t going to cut it. The Hokies need to get Kyron Drones on the run and out of the pocket to give him the chance to make plays downfield. He can’t sit back in the pocket this week. He needs to stretch the defense with his running ability.

The Hokies need to control the line of scrimmage. They need to get after Haynes King when Georgia Tech has the ball, and they need to give Kyron Drones time to the throw when the Hokies are on offense. The Hokies did a good job of that against NC State and took a step back last week. They need to get back to owning the line of scrimmage this week. Drones is at his best when he has time to throw.

If the Hokies want to have a chance this week, they need to stop explosive passing plays downfield. The Hokies could also use a big special teams play or turnover to flip the field. Ultimately, this looks a like tough game to me. The Hokies will do a good job of stopping Jamal Haynes but I think Haynes King will run wild on the ground. The Hokies will be able to score some points but unfortunately, I think they’ll be chasing the game most of the afternoon.

Prediction: Georgia Tech 35, Virginia Tech 21

📈 Betting Line & Market

  • Georgia Tech holds a 79.8 % win projection via ESPN’s FPI model.
  • However, SP+ (Connelly) projects a more lopsided margin in Georgia Tech’s favor: Virginia Tech is given just a 15% chance to win, with a model margin ~16.3 points in favor of Georgia Tech.
  • For totals, SP+ sets the over/under at 55.5, and its pick leans under.

    Summary of implied lines (based on models & past trends):
  • Spread / margin pick: Georgia Tech by ~14–17 points
  • Total (over/under): ~55.5, lean Under