Date & Time: Saturday, September 6th, 7:30pm ET
Location: Lane Stadium, Blacksburg, Virginia
Broadcast: ACC Network (TV), Virginia Tech Sports Network (Radio)
Virginia Tech had a huge opportunity to reclaim respectability in Atlanta but instead fell on their faces in the fourth quarter. An 0-2 start would be a killer for confidence and motivation this season. This is as close to a must-win game as you can have in week 2. If Pry loses this game, it might be tough to ever get off the hot seat at Virginia Tech.
The Virginia Tech defense looked much better against South Carolina than they did last season. Were there missed tackles? Yes. Were there missed assignments? Yes. But overall the defense looked much more physical and aggressive than at almost any point in the past three seasons. They were running to the ball which was a staple under Bud Foster but hasn’t been seen much since.
The key to this game is for Kyron Drones not to let himself get outplayed by Diego Pavia. Tech’s defense is expected to do a better job of keeping Pavia contained this year but he will still be the best QB on the field on Saturday. The Hokies can’t let Diego Pavia dominate the QB matchup. In order for the Hokies to win, that matchup has to be somewhat close or win the matchup outright.
Virginia Tech has to pound the rock and set up play action. I know Phillip Montgomery likes to throw ball around but this needs to be a run-first team. The Hokies are at their best when they are running the ball and setting up play action downfield. They had some success running the ball on Sunday but will need to be better this week. Drones needs to be a bigger contributor to the rushing attack.
Virginia Tech forced zero turnovers on Sunday. The Hokies will increase their odds of winning if they can win the turnover battle. This is where they need to be in the backfield early and often to harass Diego Pavia and force him into mistakes and takeaways.
Players to Watch
QB Diego Pavia
RB Sedrick Alexander
TE Eli Stowers
Virginia Tech is 9-3 in night games in Lane Stadium since 2020. Playing in Lane at night still remains a tough task for most teams. The Hokies need to feed off that energy and build on the good things they did on Sunday. If Tech can contain Diego Pavia and force him to use his arm, they should be in good position to win. Watch to see if the Hokies are able to run the ball early in this game. If they can run to move the chains, that’s a good sign. Whether Vegas likes it or not, don’t pick against the Hokies in night games in Lane. This feels like the week that things turn for the Hokies.
Prediction: Virginia Tech 31, Vanderbilt 20
Betting Line
Spread: Virginia Tech is favored by approximately 1 point (−1 to −1.5) across multiple sportsbooks. For instance, DraftKings lists Virginia Tech at −1.5 (–110)
Over/Under (Total): The game is set at 47.5 points, a consistent number across major platforms
Moneyline: Virginia Tech is slightly favored—around –115, with Vanderbilt lined around –105 to –102
Early Line Movement: Some early reports even noted Vanderbilt may have been a 3-point underdog, though this appears to have settled closer to a 1-point margin
Model Projections
ESPN FPI (Football Power Index)
Virginia Tech Win Probability: 63.3%
This projection dropped slightly (about 3.8%) after VT’s loss in Week 1.
Bill Connelly’s SP+
Projected Score: Vanderbilt 28, Virginia Tech 24
Win Probability: Vanderbilt favored at 59% to win according to SP+ efficiency metrics.
Data Skrive (Fox Sports / AP)
Spread: Virginia Tech –1.5 (−108) Total (O/U): 47.5
Predicted Score: Virginia Tech 29, Vanderbilt 21
Implied Win Probability: VT ~53.5%; Vandy ~51.0% (based on moneyline).
Dimers Simulations
Win Probability: Virginia Tech 52%; Vanderbilt 48%.
Reflects a near-even matchup with a slight edge to Tech.
BetMGM Model
Win Probability – Tech Wins: 54.5%
Probability Tech Covers Spread (1 point): 51.3%
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