Date & Time: Saturday, September 13th, 7:00pm ET
Location: Lane Stadium, Blacksburg, Virginia
Broadcast: ACC Network (TV), Virginia Tech Sports Network (Radio)
The Brent Pry era at Virginia Tech is over. Whether it happens this week or in three months, he is cooked. He has had many opportunities to right the ship at Virginia Tech and simply has not shown any results. I would argue he doesn’t have a single big win in his 3+ years at Tech. Expectations here have changed over the years but that simply isn’t going to cut it. That wouldn’t cut it at most schools.
Old Dominion is a solid team. They played top 25 Indiana close in the opener and then spanked NC Central last week. This isn’t a team that the Hokies can take lightly. The point spread in this indicates a one possession game, which seems likely in my mind. Virginia Tech is a more talented team but they certainly haven’t looked like one the last two weeks — particularly in 2nd half of games. Expect a rock fight this week.
Virginia Tech saw QB Colton Joseph last year when he came into the game late and only threw two passes and rushed three times. Seems like a solid passer and dual-threat runner. I don’t think he is Diego Pavia but could pose similar issues for the Hokies. He gets the ball a lot in the run game so the Hokies need to be ready to stop an option-style attack, similar to Vanderbilt’s.
The Hokies need to watch out for RB Trequan Jones who has only touched the ball a few times this year but can break huge runs. It’ll be important to keep him boxed in when he gets touches. Playing disciplined football will be key this week.
As usual, ODU likes to spread the ball out to a lot of receivers. There isn’t really one guy you can key on, which has been their game plan for a few years now. They’ve got a couple of big receivers in Ja’Cory Thomas and Tre Brown who could give the Hokies trouble on jump balls downfield.
ODU has shown that they are a team that can be run on. Indiana rushed for 309 yards on them and NC Central put up 136 yards in a blowout. If Tech wants to win, they need to be able to run the ball consistently against a team that has had trouble stopping the run the first two weeks of the season. ODU is very good in the red zone so they Hokies will need to make sure to punch the ball in when they get inside the 20. An effective running game will help with that.
ODU is a very penalty prone team. That might be something that can help out the Hokies on Saturday. This game will be close so penalties and turnovers could easily swing the outcome. Again, disciplined football would help out a lot this week.
This is a very difficult game to predict. Virginia Tech has the clear talent advantage but they have been playing awful football in the 2nd half of the first two games. If Tech can put together 60 minutes of football, they should be fine. But if the 4th quarter team from the first games shows up, all bets are off. My guess is we get something in the middle. Which still isn’t great but might be enough to squeak a win against a Sun Belt team. Expect a lot of ugly football on Saturday.
Prediction: Virginia Tech 28, Old Dominion 24
Betting Lines Overview
Over/Under (Total Points): Consensus tightly sits between 50.5 and 51 points.
Point Spread: Virginia Tech is favored by 7.5 points, with several sportsbooks offering similar spreads. Circa Sports had initially listed them as 10-point favorites, though that appears to have adjusted.
Moneyline: The Hokies are around –305, implying a win probability of roughly 75%. Old Dominion is priced around +245 to +250.
Predictive Models & Simulations
- SP+ (Bill Connelly’s model)
Offers a 67% win probability for Virginia Tech, with a projected final score of 31–24 in favor of the Hokies. This system adjusts for tempo and opponent quality and is designed to be forward-looking—not rewarding luck or poor scheduling. - FPI (ESPN’s model)
While direct probability figures weren’t quoted in recent coverage, FPI is mentioned in earlier reporting as giving Virginia Tech around a 65–66% chance to win. - Dimers Simulation Model
Simulated 10,000 hypothetical matchups and projects a 63% win probability for the Hokies, with an expected score of 28–23. - Picks And Parlays (Pundit Opinion)
Bucking the trend, this analysis believes Old Dominion could pull off the upset. They predict a 27–21 win for ODU and recommend betting on ODU +275.
Predictive Models vs. Betting Lines
- Spread (VT favored by 7.5 points): SP+ and Dimers output a projected margin close to 6–8 points, aligning with the betting line and suggesting the market accurately reflects statistical expectations.
- Moneyline (~–300 for VT): Implied probability here (~75%) is a bit higher than simulated win probabilities, indicating sportsbooks build in vigorish (bookmaker margin) or public bias toward favorites.
- Total Points (~50–51): Both models suggest a reasonable combined score outcome (e.g., 31–24 = 55 total; 28–23 = 51), confirming the market’s total points projection.
Summary Table
| Source / Model | VT Win Probability | Projected Score |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | ~67% | 31–24 (VT) |
| FPI | ~66% (est.) | — |
| Dimers Simulations | ~63% | 28–23 (VT) |
| Picks and Parlays (Pundit) | — | 21–27 (ODU upset) |
| Betting Line – Moneyline | ~75% (implied) | — |
| Betting Line – Spread | — | VT favored by 7.5 |
| Betting Line – Over/Under | — | ~50.5–51 total |
treadmillhorse 