Date & Time: Saturday, September 27, 2025 — 7:00 PM ET
Location: Carter-Finley Stadium, Raleigh, NC
TV / Streaming: The CW (Thom Brennaman, Will Blackmon, Wes Bryant)
Odds / Line: NC State is favored by ~10.5 points
Series History: Virginia Tech holds the all-time series lead, 28–20–4, although NC State has won the last two matchups
The Hokies looked competent against Wofford. I’d maybe even go so far as to say well-coached. It’s easy to look good against an overmatched opponent. The real test is this week to see if the Hokies can look better than their first three games against a Power 4 team. It’s not easy to circle the wagons after a coaching change, especially with some players jumping ship but I want to see a strong level of effort from this team regardless of the outcome.
First, Virginia Tech will have to be able to slow down NC State’s run game. If they get dominated at the line of scrimmage like they did in the first three games, this one will be over quickly. RB Hollywood Smothers has been able to put up 500+ yards through the first four games of the season. He is a player that will be tough for the Hokies to stop unless they have done a lot of work on their run fits in the last two weeks.
On offense, the Hokies have to be able to protect Kyron Drones. As we saw on Saturday, when he has time to throw, he looks like a pretty darn good QB. He makes decisions quickly and accurately. BUT, when he’s pressured, he turns into the bad version of himself that becomes more indecisive and inaccurate. We’re at a place where our talent on the OL is what it is but hopefully Coach Monty and Matt Moore can figure out something that works to slow down NC State’s pass rush.
NC State has had trouble with turnovers and special teams lapses in the first four games. If the Hokies can capitalize on mistakes, that could help the Hokies stay in the game. The Hokies will need a couple of big plays to keep this game competitive.
Virginia Tech has looked really bad so far this year but this game is likely closer than the experts think. The Hokies have not looked good so far but they are capable of playing with most ACC teams aside from the top teams in the league. This is one where if the Wolfpark are overlooking the Hokies, it could come back to bite them. All things being equal, I like the Pack to win by around 10. This will be an entertaining game but I don’t expect the Pack to deliver a blowout like the Vandy and ODU games. Hopefully, we see a bit of a turnaround under Coach Monty.
Prediction: NC State 31, Virginia Tech 21
Betting Line & Movement
- The current spread has NC State listed as ~-10.5 favorites.
- The over/under (total) is sitting around 56.5 points.
- The moneyline has NC State strongly favored (around –410) with Virginia Tech an underdog at about +320.
- The line has moved upward from an earlier NC State spread of ~7.5 points.
So, the market is signaling confidence in a clear Wolfpack victory, and bettors have pushed the line further in NC State’s direction.
Against the Spread (ATS)
- NC State is 2–2 ATS this season, and 2–1 as a favorite so far.
- Virginia Tech is 0–4 ATS this year; they have not covered in any game to date.
- NC State historically struggles ATS at home: they are 2–7 ATS in their last 9 home games.
- Virginia Tech, conversely, has had some success against the spread historically vs NC State: they are 6–1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
treadmillhorse 