Date & Time: Saturday, November 22, 2025 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Location: Lane Stadium, Blacksburg, VA
Television: ESPN (play-by-play: Bob Wischusen; analyst: Louis Riddick; sideline: Kris Budden)
Virginia Tech Hokies: 3-7 overall, 2-4 in the ACC.
Miami Hurricanes: 8-2 overall, 4-2 in the ACC.
Virginia Tech got their guy. This program feels like it just got a massive wave of positive momentum behind it. So the rest of this season feels a bit like an afterthought but it’s extremely important for the players and coaches playing for next year.
Miami’s offense is explosive, particularly throwing the ball. If Carson Beck is at his best, Miami is tough to stop. They’ve got talented receivers all over the field. This is a game where the DBs have to show up and keep Beck from lighting them up downfield. This is an offense that relies on the big play, so if the Hokies can stop the chunk plays downfield, they have a shot at slowing down this offense.
The key to this game is Miami’s defense. They are top 10 defense who can absolutely stonewall the run. Miami can be beat over the top but that would rely on Kyron Drones and his receivers making plays downfield. That has been pretty inconsistent so far this year.
This game has a not-so-fast-my-friend feel to it. It’s Virginia Tech’s Senior Day. Four of the last five matchups in this series have been decided by 7 points or less. Miami has been less-than-impressive on the road this year and this is unbelievably only their third road game of the season. I’m not ready to pick the upset but it’s closer than the experts think.
Prediction: Miami 28, Virginia Tech 21
📈 Betting Line & Market
Spread: Miami -17.5 at most books (opened ~-16.5, ticked up).
Total: 48.5 (some 49.5s in the market).
Moneyline
Miami: around -950 to -1200
Virginia Tech: around +600 to +700
That translates roughly to Miami win probability ~90–92% in betting terms.
Recent performance vs ATS:
Miami: 8–2 SU, 6–4 ATS, scoring 33.7 ppg, allowing 14.2 ppg.
Virginia Tech: 3–7 SU, 2–8 ATS, scoring 23.3 ppg, allowing 30.1 ppg.
Trend: VT is 2–9 ATS last 11; Miami 8–2 SU last 10.
Raw model score:
Miami ~32 – VT ~19 → Miami -13 to -14, Total ~50–51.
Market total: 48.5.
Model total: ~51.
Both trends and matchup history lean UNDER in this series, especially in Blacksburg (UNDER in 4 of last 5 meetings at VT).
treadmillhorse 