There was some good from the Rutgers game and a lot of bad. The good? Tech found a quarterback in Kyron Drones that fits this offense. This offense needs to go back to what worked in 2016 with Jerod Evans — one read and go. That’s what I saw with Drones last week. We need to keep it simple. I’ve also spotted a pattern with this team:
There’s a pattern here: slow start, offense figures it out a little, defense collapses pic.twitter.com/L3qSXUX50w
Overall: 78th Offense: 92nd Defense: 60th Special Teams: 51st
Marshall
Overall: 72nd Offense: 93rd Defense: 38th Special Teams: 94th
Marshall has a balanced offense. If Tech wants to win this week, they need to limit the big runs that have plagued them the past two weeks. Marshall has a talented running back in Rasheen Ali who can break a big play. The Hokies have to play their assignments and not lose contain on the running back. Tech needs to focus their attention on the run and make Marshall beat them through the air.
Marshall has a good secondary. If you’re going to beat them, you have to do it on the ground. This is where Kyron Drones needs to be able to gobble up yards on the ground to open the game up for the rest of the offense. This would be a good week to incorporate more option looks. This needs to be the Drones-Tuten show. This shouldn’t be the week the Hokies air it out all over the field.
Marshall is coming off an early bye week. I actually don’t like teams taking a bye week this early in the season. It usually causes more issues than it fixes. I’d expect Marshall to get off to a bit of slow start. The Hokies need to take advantage and work quick to get points on the board. They also need to make sure to put a couple of drives together to keep their defense from wearing out late in the game. I see this game like the Purdue game. Low-scoring and the team that can finish a drive in the 4th quarter wins.
Virginia Tech lost a close one to Purdue but there was a lot to be concerned about from that game. First, it looks like Ali Jennings may be out for a long time. That’s troubling because he is clearly this team’s number one receiving option. Second, in consecutive games this team could not run the ball at all. Third, things are a mess at quarterback where Grant Wells hasn’t performed well and now may be injured. This team has a lot of question marks going into the Rutgers game.
I owe the State of New Jersey an apology. I got schooled by @BillyRayTweets here:
Overall: 73rd Offense: 93rd Defense: 50th Special Teams: 21st
Purdue
Overall: 59th Offense: 80th Defense: 37th Special Teams: 43rd
Rutgers is a mediocre offensive team. To be fair, they are very balanced. They do a good job of mixing the run in with the pass. Kyle Monangai is their most explosive running back. They use him like we used Raheem Blackshear (former Rutgers transfer) where he can get yards on the ground but also in the pass game. Their weakness on offense is their pass game. Look for Tech to try to force the issue and make QB Gavin Wimsatt beat them with his arm. This looks like an offense that Tech should be able to slow down, if they can stop Monangai and their run game.
Rutgers has a top-20 defense. This defense looks like it’s no joke. This is year 4 of Greg Schiano and you can tell he has put his mark on this defense. This defense is giving up only 40 rushing yards per game. Tech is coming off a game where they only rushed for 11 yards against a much worse defense. This seems like a mismatch and one that Rutgers should have a sizable advantage.
Rutgers looks like a solid team. They are trying to get their offense in gear but the defense is more than holding up their end. This seems like a tough spot for the Hokies in their first true road game. Tech’s offense is struggling and they are going up against a good defensive team. Not to mention, this could be Kyron Drones’ first start if Grant Wells isn’t able to go. This doesn’t look like the week that Tech’s offense will figure it out. More than likely this is a wake-up call for the offense.
Virginia Tech took care of business against ODU. What did we learn from that game? Well, we found ourselves a couple of capable receivers in the transfer portal. When Grant Wells is settled in, he’s pretty good. And we have some pretty major issues run blocking. Not mention Virginia Tech still has the best entrance in the world.
Overall: 65th Offense: 84th Defense: 49th Special Teams: 59th
Purdue
Overall: 64th Offense: 53rd Defense: 81st Special Teams: 118th
Purdue’s offense is led by Hudson Card, the former Texas Longhorn’s quarterback. After one game, Purdue’s offense looks a lot like the Hokies’ offense. They can pass well but not run the ball. Against Fresno State they ran for 3.6 yards per attempt. Hudson Card had a good day throwing for 254 yards and 2 touchdowns.
The Purdue secondary looked putrid against Fresno State. They gave up 371 yards and 4 touchdowns through the air. You can expect them to try to turn those numbers around this week. But after the Hokies offense has a good day through the air last week, you can expect Tech to try to air it out again this week.
Watch out for the return game. Last week, Purdue running back Tyrone Tracy returned a second half kickoff 98 yards for a touchdown. A breakdown on special teams could be costly in a close game.
Expect big plays in this game. Both teams are going to try to air it out. In that scenario, I like the Hokies secondary having the advantage. On paper, this looks like a game where the over could hit (O/U 49.5). In an even game, you like to go with the home team especially one with momentum coming off an opening week win.
Brent Pry did a great job of adding talent this offseason via the transfer portal. On the depth chart released this week, you can see transfer portal additions starting all over the roster. Ali Jennings (ODU), Jaylin Lane (MTSU), Da’Quan Felton (Norfolk State), Bhayshul Tuten (North Carolina A&T), Antwaun Powell-Ryland (Florida) and Derrick Canteen (Georgia Southern). That’s a big talent infusion in one offseason.
Overall: 72nd Offense: 88th Defense: 51st Special Teams: 68th
Old Dominion
Overall: 121st Offense: 129th Defense: 79th Special Teams: 115th
Old Dominion’s offense brought in new additions in offensive coordinator Kevin Decker and quarterback Grant Wilson from Fordham. Kevin Decker’s offense resembles an air raid offense where they like to air the ball out a lot and play high-tempo. What that will look like in Game 1? Who knows? But that’s what ODU will be trying to do against the Hokies. Tech will need to get pressure on the quarterback to try to make Grant Wilson uncomfortable in the passing game. Consistent pressure will likely need to a turnover or two. Look for Antwuan Powell-Ryland and Keyshawn Burgos to make a big impact.
I think the players I’m most excited to watch this year are APR and Keyshawn Burgos
Defense is the strength of ODU’s squad. Last year, their secondary forced 12 interceptions. Four of those were throws from Grant Wells. This year, the Hokies quarterback needs to avoid mistakes and take what the defense gives him. It would help if the Hokies could keep the ball on the ground and get yards from Bhayshul Tuten and Michael Thomas. That’s a one-two punch that the Hokies didn’t have when they played ODU last season.
RB Bhayshul Tuten and TE Dae’Quan Wright are back participating at practice. Here’s Tuten with a brace on his left knee running a route. #Hokiespic.twitter.com/Ugekebxmpz
In the first game of the year, there is an opportunity for big plays on special teams. Last season, the game flipped on a bad snap that cost the Hokies seven points and was a 10-point swing in what should’ve been a makable field goal. This season, the Hokies need to get a big play on special teams either in the return game or on a blocked kick. Those are the type of plays that can decide a game. Especially in the opener.
The Hokies look like solid favorites in this one. Vegas has this game pegged with Tech as a two touchdown favorite. If Tech can avoid a turnover and penalty-filled meltdown like last season, this should be a comfortable win. The talent infusion that the Hokies brought in the offseason should pay dividends in a game like this. Tech has the clear talent advantage. Expect this game to be low-scoring with Tech being able to score enough to let the defense hold on for the win.
The upcoming ACC football season is going to be wild. Virginia going winless? Drake Maye's butt hurt ruining UNC's season? These predictions and more in this thread!#ACC#CollegeFootball#Hokiespic.twitter.com/wf1ixutWJZ
Virginia Tech is hoping to bounce back from its worst season in 30 years. 3 win seasons are rare in Blacksburg and Brent Pry is hoping to get bowl eligible after a challenging first season.
Coaching Staff:
Brent Pry enters his second season in Blacksburg. Pry struggled in his first season after inheriting a roster with many departures from the previous coaching staff. This season Tyler Bowen will be running the offense as the one-and-only offensive coordinator. Last season, he split the role with Brad Glenn who has since moved on to Cincinnati. This season will hinge on Bowen’s ability get more out of the offense than last season. He will need to be more creative and install an offense that makes sense with the personnel he has.
Offense:
The Hokies’ offense struggled last season leading to historically bad results. Tech had trouble run blocking and receivers had a tough time getting open. That along with an injury to Malachi Thomas led to an offense that couldn’t move the ball consistently.
The good news for this season is that Tech loaded up on capable offensive threats through the transfer portal. The coaching staff brought in Ali Jennings from ODU, Jaylin Lane from Middle Tennessee State and Bhayshul Tuten from North Carolina A&T. All these players have shown explosive abilities at their previous stops. These additions should add some explosive targets for Grant Wells in the passing game and another threat in the running game.
Grant Wells is a capable quarterback. Last year’s performance had a lot to do with a line that couldn’t block and receivers who couldn’t get open. Not to mention an injury to his number one running back. Few quarterbacks would perform well under those conditions. Even with that, he graded out as an average quarterback in the ACC. With more help this season, you should see those numbers improve. His most important task is cutting down on turnovers. Even with Wells in a game manager role, this offense can be successful.
The biggest area to watch for is the play of the offensive line. How do they respond to new coach Ron Crooks? Can he turn them into a productive group? Or does it look like last year’s group that struggled to run and pass block most of the season? My guess is that Crooks’ scheme will fit better with what Bowen is trying to do on offense.
Defense:
Brent Pry’s specialty is defense and we should see more out of that group compared to last season. Since Pry arrived he has prioritized size and speed on the defense. This group is slowly getting more athletic than the group Pry inherited from the previous coaching staff. Pry’s staff has made that a focus in recruiting and in the transfer portal.
The Hokies’ secondary will once again be the strength of the defense with Mansoor Delane and Dorian Strong starting at cornerback. The defense’s ability to create turnovers and limit big plays will be pivotal to the team’s success. The Hokies ranked 129th out of 131 teams in generating turnovers last season. That must change this season in order to improve on last year’s 3-win season.
The biggest question marks for this defense are at defensive end and linebacker. If Brent Pry can find a couple of young guys to step up at those positions this should be a pretty solid group. If not, this could be an average defense like last year’s.
Key Players to Watch:
Quarterback Grant Wells: Wells had a 1:1 touchdown to interception ratio last season. That has to improve for Tech’s offense to be a threat in 2023.
Running Back Malachi Thomas: This offense needs a consistent chain-mover in short yardage. In order for the offense to come around, we need to see Thomas return to his 2021 form.
Defensive Back Mansoor Delane: One of the top cornerbacks in the ACC entering 2023. He needs to back up the hype as a lockdown corner for this defense and become a ballhawk who can turn the ball over to the offense when it comes his way.
Non-Conference Matchups:
Virginia Tech has a manageable non-conference slate. They need a win against Old Dominion in the worst way. This staff cannot afford another loss to an in-state Group of 5 program. There are good opportunities for Power 5 wins against Purdue at home and Rutgers on the road. And finally, don’t overlook that road game against Marshall. Marshall won 9 games last season and will be far from a pushover this season.
ACC Outlook:
After the media picked the Hokies to finish 11th in the ACC preseason poll, the Hokies will have their work cut out for them. If the Hokies can build on the progress they made on defense last season, they should be able to outperform these expectations.
Conclusion:
When Brent Pry took the position of head coach, this job was always going to be a multi-year rebuild. The cupboards were pretty bare when he got here. After bottoming out with a 3-win season, it looks like the outlook is brighter but it is going to be a year-by-year process. The goal for this season should be six wins and a bowl game. Anything more than that is gravy.
Tough games (<40% chance to win)
Pitt. Florida State. Syracuse. Louisville. NC State. The goal here is to try to steal one or two of these games. They are winnable but tougher than the rest.
Toss-up games (50-50 games)
Purdue. Rutgers. Marshall. Wake Forest. Boston College. Virginia. These games will be the difference between 8-4 and 4-8. VT must win at least three of these.
Should win games (>60% to win)
Old Dominion. Tech can’t afford to stub their toe again here especially not at home.
Key games for the Hokies: Wake Forest, Boston College, Virginia.
Upset Alert: at Marshall
Game By Game Predictions
Old Dominion
Purdue
at Rutgers
at Marshall
Pitt
at Florida State
Wake Forest
Syracuse
at Louisville
at Boston College
NC State
at Virginia
Virginia Tech Game by Game Predictions
Final Regular Season Record: 6-6 (4-4 in the ACC) Expected finish: 7th in the ACC
I did a little better on my picks this year than last year. But I thought this team would be much better in the preseason than they actually were. I thought the offense would not have a drop off from Corn’s offense — boy, was I wrong about that. I saw a lot of winnable games and I thought an improved defense combined with a similar offense would get VT over-the-hump to 8 wins. The offense falling off the face of the earth really hurt this team. If VT can find a way to get a more cohesive offensive game plan next year, I think we could see a big improvement in wins and losses. Luckily for the Hokies, there is nowhere to go but up. Can’t get any worse than this season. The coaches need to get really active in the portal this offseason. This team needs more game breakers on offense.
This week we have a guest contributor @DriftVT from Twitter writing this week’s preview.
Before we get into the preview, please consider giving to a GoFundMe to support the families affected by the shooting in Charlottesville this week: https://www.gofundme.com/c/act/uva-shooting-help
After back-to-back collapses against NC State and Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech was completely outmatched by the Duke Blue Devils this past weekend. A game that left most Virginia Tech fans feeling demoralized. It was a tough game to watch, as Virginia Tech took the lead to start the game, and failed to score again. Losing even against the spread which was 9.5 in favor of Duke.
Moving forward to this week, Virginia Tech is playing the best program in the state of Virginia, in Liberty. Hugh Freeze has built a winning G5 program, and he was recently signed to an extension keeping him at Liberty for years to come. Until the SEC gives him a ring.
SP+ Rankings
Virginia Tech
Overall: 98th Offense: 123rd Defense: 48th Special Teams: 82nd
Liberty
Overall: 73rd Offense: 81st Defense: 49th Special Teams: 87th
In order for Virginia Tech to contain this Liberty offense, they will need to slow down Demario Douglas. From Jacksonville, FL, Demario has 830 yards this season on 56 catches, which is already a season high for him. He is a shifty mismatch nightmare for defenses to contain and it begs the question, who will Virginia Tech put on him? Usually in this scenario, Chamari Conner or DJ Harvey will cover the slot in man coverage. I’d expect to see more zone this week as I do not believe the staff will be comfortable playing man coverage against him all game.
On the offensive side of the ball, the Hokies still look completely lost. Everything looks difficult and forced. At least we have been able to snap the ball without false starting every play, which has been about the only improvement. In terms of what works; well, nothing really, outside of throwing the ball downfield to Kaleb Smith. Virginia Tech will have to do whatever they can to score at least 20 points to keep this game within reach. And they’ll need the defense to gift them a turnover as well.
There are quite a few fans calling for Tyler Bowen to be fired, and while I am completely uninspired by his performance this season, I don’t think he will be let go. I think Pry would like to keep the same staff heading into next season, hoping to learn and grow as a unit. While a new OC could help, I think it might be too soon to cut the cord.
Up until after the Georgia Tech game, I had said on Twitter just how far one of these games would help recruiting in Virginia if Pry could squeak one or two out. We thought we had it with Miami, then NC State, and then Georgia Tech. If we get blown out this weekend, it will seriously damage the moral of the fanbase and all the buzz around the program. I really think a win here, while unlikely, could go a very long way in repairing some of the damage done by previous staff. Remember, it is a revenge game for the Hokies.
For the third time this season, the Hokies have collapsed at the end of a game. A game they should have had in hand and failed to put away. This is a trend that has been present for the last few years. It’s a losing mentality. When this team encounters any adversity, they fold like a cheap tent. There are reasons like talent and depth that this team wears out late in game. But that’s only part of the answer. The other part is a psychology of losing that this team can’t seem to kick.
SP+ Rankings
Virginia Tech
Overall: 91st Offense: 116th Defense: 48th Special Teams: 49th
Duke
Overall: 76th Offense: 61st Defense: 80th Special Teams: 53rd
It’s been a while but Duke is good at football again. Mike Elko has done an awesome job of getting the most out of the roster he inherited from David Cutcliffe. This is what VT fans were hoping for from the Pry era but it appears that Duke had a more ready-made roster. Duke has a very good rushing offense that will give the Hokies trouble. Particularly rushing from the QB position. Expect the Hokies to play a lot of zone to try to keep the Duke running game in check. There will be a lot of rushing yards from Duke QB Riley Leonard, especially from read option plays.
Duke’s defense is vulnerable against the pass. Unfortunately, VT’s passing offense is not consistent enough to take advantage of it. The Hokies show flashes here and there in the passing game but it’s not enough. If there was a game where the Tech should focus on airing it out a bit, it’s this game. The Hokies should focus on targeting Kaleb Smith, Dae’Quan Wright and Nick Gallo downfield. This is also a good opportunity for guys like Da’Wain Lofton and Stephen Gosnell to step up in the passing game. The Hokies won’t be able to score much in this game from their run-based offense. They will need some downfield throws to move the ball against a stout Duke defense.
It seems like everything has been a struggle for the Hokies this season. Do they have a chance in this game? Of course. But Duke seems like they are firing on all cylinders based on their roster. Tech is still trying to figure things out. The best thing for Tech to do is forget all the negative plays and bad energy and focus on going 1-0. This team has the talent to win but they need to put a complete game together. There are only three more opportunities to get that done this year. Let’s see if they can finish the season strong.
That NC State loss was a tough one to swallow. Virginia Tech did what they needed to do to win but couldn’t close the deal. After NC State scored their first touchdown, the Hokies went into expect-to-lose mode. That game felt like a carryover from the Fuente era. We have seen more than a few games play out like that over the last few years. This program has a losing culture right now. They need to start changing that mentality if they want to move forward and build a winning program again.
Overall: 91st Offense: 117th Defense: 49th Special Teams: 49th
Georgia Tech
Overall: 97th Offense: 106th Defense: 83rd Special Teams: 89th
Grant Wells should be able to make plays against Georgia Tech’s secondary. The Hokies offense just needs to avoid being one-dimensional. Running into the interior of the line over and over again will not work. The Hokies need to open up their passing attack and press the edges of the defense with outside runs. VT should try more misdirection and read options. Right now, the offense is just to easy to read for defenses. The Hokies also need to try to get the ball in the hands of Keshawn King and Bryce Duke in open space. Whether it be via outside runs or quick screen passes. They were far too predictable on offense against NC State.
This game will come down to whether Jeff Sims is healthy enough to play and be effective. The Georgia Tech offense is much better with him behind center. Even if Jeff Sims is available, the Georgia Tech offense hasn’t had much to write home about this year. Like the Hokies, they are one of the worst Power 5 offenses in the nation. They run the ball a little better than they throw it but they are not really good at either. This is where the Hokies’ defense should have a significant advantage.
This game represents the Hokies best chance of getting a win the rest of the season. If the defense plays well and can limit the GT offense, I see the Hokies having a good chance to win. If Jeff Sims shows up and is healthy, he’s the best player on the field and could be the difference. All things being equal, the Hokies will put enough together on offense and defense to squeak a victory. I hope they find a way to play more than one quarter of offense this week.
treadmillhorse 
