Date & Time: Saturday, November 1, 2025 at 3 p.m. ET
Location: Lane Stadium, Blacksburg, Virginia
Matchup: Virginia Tech (3-5 overall, 2-2 in ACC) vs. Louisville (6-1 overall, 3-1 in ACC)
Television: The CW Network
Virginia Tech continues to have a talent gap but the game against Cal showed they can still be competitive. The next step is to use that momentum to score a win over a top 25 team. Louisville is very good but they are beatable. Especially playing in Lane. This is a big opportunity for Philip Montgomery and his guys to score a big win.
The Hokies need to run the same offense they did against Cal. Run the ball as many ways as Philip Montgomery can think of. Tech’s best offensive weapons are Kyron Drones, Marcellous Hawkins and Terion Stewart running the ball. Those three options give opponents more to think about than trying to force a passing game which hasn’t worked well this season. And as we saw last week, when the run game is working it opens up opportunities in the passing game.
Louisville has an explosive offense. This will be a much tougher task than Cal last week. Hopefully the defense is starting to figure it out and will be able to get some stops. Players to watch are RB Isaac Brown and WR Chris Bell. Both of those guys are game breakers and can make big plays when they get the ball in their hands.
In order to have a shot this week, the Hokies need to win the turnover battle. Capitalizing on a short field or two would help to even up this game a bit. If the turnover battle is even, that favors Louisville which should have a significant advantage when they have the ball.
Louisville looks every bit the part of a top 25 team. They beat #2 Miami two weeks ago. This is a team that scores a lot of points. They have many different ways they can beat you. The Hokies best chance is to control the clock, limit possessions and force a turnover or two. Otherwise, on paper, it looks like Louisville has a pretty significant advantage in this game.
Prediction: Louisville 34, Virginia Tech 20
📈 Betting Line & Market
- Odds: Louisville favored by about 10.5 points, with total expected points ~ 53.5.
Market snapshot
- Spread/Total/Moneyline: Louisville -10.5 (≈ -420), O/U 53.5, VT +325.
- Implied score from market: ~Louisville 32 – VT 22 (solve from spread + total)
- Implied win probs from ML: Louisville ~80.4%, VT ~23.6%. (Derived from -420/+325 posted by FOX Sports)
Public/computer angles
- FOX/Data Skrive model: Louisville 37–19 (Louisville -10.5, Over).
- SP+ (Bill Connelly via SI): Projects Louisville 35–19, Cardinals by 15.3 with VT win prob 17%; O/U projection 53.5. This is ~5 points stronger on Louisville than the market.
- OddsShark computer: Predicted 34.4–24.6 (leans Louisville -10.5; predicted sum is ~59).
- Consensus line checkers/news: Most outlets list Louisville -10.5 / 53.5; BetMGM listed -10.5 on Tuesday.
Spread:
- Market: LOU -10.5.
- SP+ fair line: LOU -15.3 → ~4.8 points of value toward Louisville vs. current spread.
- Other computers (FOX/OddsShark) sit around LOU by 12–18
Total:
- Market: 53.5.
- SP+: 53.5 (no edge). FOX model sum 56 (slight Over).
Moneyline:
Market implies ~80% Louisville. SP+ VT win prob ~17% → aligns with the favorite being heavy.
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