Tag: cavaliers

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Virginia vs Virginia Tech Preview and Prediction

Date & Time: Saturday, November 29, 2025 at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Location: Scott Stadium, Charlottesville, Va.
Series: Virginia Tech leads 62–38–5
Streaks: VT has dominated the rivalry for two decades, winning 17 of the last 18 meetings.

This rivalry is finally starting to develop some juice with Virginia having a great regular season and Virginia Tech hiring a big-time football coach. Both programs are pumping serious money into football and it looks like football in the Commonwealth is about to take off.

This game will be decided by quarterback play. On paper, UVA has the better QB in Chandler Morris. Virginia Tech has a couple of talented guys in Kyron Drones and Pop Watson but both have been inconsistent so far this year. To win, Virginia Tech is going to have to get an A-level performance out of one or both of their QBs.

Virginia has balance when they have the football. They can run it and throw it well. They have a couple of running backs with a good yard per carry average and they have a bunch of reliable targets in the passing game. This isn’t an offense that’s going to wow you but they’ve got the pieces to slowly and steadily move the ball downfield consistently.

Virginia is only giving up 21.2 points per game this year. That’s good for 37th nationally. They are a solid defense that likes to lock teams down on third down. They are 6th in the country at forcing stops on the third down. They only allow 29.7% conversion on third down. If the Hokies want to move the ball, they should look for big plays in the passing game. UVA is susceptible to giving up the big play on the backend of their defense.

These games are always weird. It’s a cliche but throw the stats out the window. Tech always plays above their weight class in this matchup and Virginia tends to make uncharacteristic mistakes in this game. A couple of things I like for Virginia Tech in this game a) UVA has played one of the weakest schedules in the ACC this year b) they are coming off a bye last week which can sometimes leads to some early rust on offense. Virginia might get off to a slow start, so Virginia Tech will have to take advantage of that. Vegas is giving UVA too much credit in this one. It ends in a one-possession game but just like the 2019 game, Virginia has the better QB and UVA wins by a touchdown.

Prediction: Virginia 28, Virginia Tech 21

📈 Betting Line & Market

  • Spread: Virginia -9.5 vs Virginia Tech +9.5
  • Total: 52.5–53.5 (most commonly 52.5 or 53)
  • Moneyline: Around UVA -360 / VT +285

📐 Advanced Analytics vs. Market

SP+ (Bill Connelly / ESPN):

  • Gives UVA a 92% win probability and a projected score of 38–16 (UVA by 22).

ESPN FPI:

  • Has UVA at 80.1% win probability, VT at 19.9%.

Compare that to the betting market:

  • Market implied UVA win chance (around -360) ≈ mid-70s %
  • Analytics (SP+, FPI) say 80–92% → they see UVA as an even bigger favorite than the line suggests.
  • Books: UVA by ~9.5
  • SP+: UVA by ~22
  • FPI: UVA by something like 10–13, depending on home-field assumption.

🧠 Big-Picture Summary

  • Market: UVA -9.5, 52.5 total, ML around -360.
  • Analytics: Strongly favor UVA (80–92% win probability, SP+ by 22).
  • Risk factors: Rivalry chaos, cold weather, UVA’s LB injury

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Virginia Hate Week Podcast with HoosFootball

This week we are joined by HoosFootball for our third annual HATE WEEK Podcast. He has been a long-time follower of UVA football. If you take a look at this website, HoosFootball.com, you’ll see a ton of great information on the history of UVA football. In addition to that, he’s a talented podcaster himself, as one of the hosts of the Message Board Geniuses podcast. Enjoy!

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Virginia vs Virginia Tech Preview and Prediction

Things have really started to fall apart on Brent Pry. This season kicked off with so much promise. And now we’re finishing in only what could be considered a worst-case scenario for the season. It’s not unusual for Virginia Tech to find themselves needing a win in the last game of the season to make a bowl. What makes it so unusual this season is that the expectations were so much higher. This season can only be categorized as a massive flop. There is going to have to be a lot of soul searching going on at Merryman this offseason.

SP+ Rankings

Virginia Tech

Overall: 31st
Offense: 41st
Defense: 40th
Special Teams: 41st

Virginia

Overall: 81st
Offense: 88th
Defense: 80th
Special Teams: 66th

Virginia has a decent passing offense when they have time to throw. They are one of the worst teams in the country at protecting the quarterback. This is a game where APR and the defensive line should shine. QB Anthony Colandrea has been going through a rough stretch lately and he took 9 sacks in his last game vs SMU. If Tech can keep pressure on him, they should be able to rattle him and maybe force him into a couple of mistakes. His play early on is something to keep an eye on.

Virginia gives up a lot of yards through the air. Unfortunately for the Hokies, they will likely be playing Pop Watson who does not appear to be a seasoned passer. This may be a game where Tech needs to get creative in ways they run the football. Run the ball as many different ways as you can come up with. Virginia Tech really struggled to run the ball against Duke. This week, their best gameplan will be to establish the run early and often since the pass game doesn’t seem like it’s an option with Pop Watson behind center.

These rivalry games with Virginia are always weird. They are very difficult to predict. The uncommon becomes common in these games. All things being equal, I think Virginia Tech has more talent. However, Tech has a head coach who can’t coach his way out of a wet paper bag. So who knows what happens? I pick these games by looking at what the teams look like on paper. And on paper, it looks like a 11- point victory for the Hokies. That doesn’t mean it’ll happen though.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 28, Virginia 17

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Virginia Podcast Q&A with HoosFootball

This week we are joined by HoosFootball for our second annual HATE WEEK Q&A. He has been a long-time follower of UVA football. If you take a look at this website, HoosFootball.com, you’ll see a ton of great information on the history of UVA football. In addition to that, he’s a talented podcaster himself, as one of the hosts of the Message Board Geniuses podcast. Enjoy!

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Virginia vs Virginia Tech Preview and Prediction

Losing on Senior Day is always disappointing. The Hokies had a great chance to seal up a bowl bid at home and let it slip away. Now, Virginia Tech will need to get a win on the road in Charlottesville to become bowl eligible.

SP+ Rankings

Virginia Tech

Overall: 60th
Offense: 73rd
Defense: 54th
Special Teams: 15th

Virginia

Overall: 96th
Offense: 89th
Defense: 99th
Special Teams: 77th

Virginia’s offense is driven by true freshman QB Anthony Colandrea. He has gone over 300 yards passing and over 60 yards rushing each of the last two games. He has been UVA’s leading rusher in both those games. He also has a great receiving option in WR Malik Washington. Washington is one of the best wide receivers the Hokies will face this season. He is already over 1,300 yards receiving with 9 touchdowns. The key to stopping the ‘Hoos offense will be to stop Colandrea. Keep him bottled up in the run game and get pressure on him. He has been sacked 15 times in his last six games. Virginia is 116th in the FBS in sacks allowed. This would be a good week for APR to get back in on the sack party.

Virginia ranks 112th in rush defense. The Hokies offense is predicated on the run. This would be a good game for Virginia Tech to establish Drones and Tuten on the ground early. Both of those guys are tough to bring down in the open field. This might also be a good week to use Jaylin Lane and Xavion Turner-Bradshaw in the run game. Use that top-end speed to make the ‘Hoos have to defend sideline to sideline. The Hokies can take care of business this week by running most of the time. They should still use Kyron Drones’ arm and Dae’Quan Felton’s deep ball ability but this is a good week to keep the ball on the ground. Old school Virginia Tech smash-mouth football.

The key to this game will be who scores first and gets up early. Both of these teams play better with the lead. They both like to get up early and use the run game to control the clock and maintain possessions. Tech needs to get pressure on Anthony Colandrea and force him into mistakes. He is a much better quarterback when he can settle in and have time to throw. Like he did against Duke. When Colandrea is getting pressured, his completion percentage goes down and he is more likely to make a mistake.

My take on this game is that UVA is feeling good about their performance against Duke and Virginia Tech is not happy about their performance against NC State. I think Virginia Tech will go into this game with something to prove. This Anthony Colandrea quote will also help to add a little extra motivation for the Hokies.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 30, Virginia 21

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Virginia Podcast Q&A with HoosFootball

This week we are joined by HoosFootball for our first-ever audio Q&A. He has been a long-time follower of UVA football. If you take a look at this website, HoosFootball.com, you’ll see a ton of great information on the history of UVA football. In addition to that, he’s a talented podcaster himself, as one of the hosts of the Message Board Geniuses podcast. Enjoy!

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Virginia Preview and Prediction

Last season, I expected UVA to win this game. I expected the Commonwealth Cup streak to end. I expected the bowl streak to end. It was the worst Virginia Tech team in a quarter century and it felt like the time had come. Luckily, the Hokies made enough plays to keep the Commonwealth Cup in Blacksburg. This year the stakes are even higher with a Coastal division title and a potential spot in the Orange Bowl on the line.

Virginia

Overall: 37th
Offense: 68th
Defense: 32nd
Special Teams: 34th

Virginia Tech

Overall: 42nd
Offense: 70th
Defense: 33rd
Special Teams: 40th

Bryce Perkins is a one-man show on offense. He has been able to hit on big plays in the passing game. Virginia has the 43rd ranked passing offense in the country. Where they have struggled is in the run game. They rely on their do-everything quarterback to find yards on the ground. The Wahoos have the 118th ranked rushing offense. Their offense is one-dimensional when Perkins can’t find rushing yards on his own. The Hokies will need to contain Perkins and make him throw the ball. The Hokies corners will have to cover one-on-one against the Wahoos wide receivers. Especially when Perkins leaves the pocket.

Virginia Tech will need to find ways to move the ball against an aggressive defense. They came up with a good game plan against Pitt’s aggressive front. They will need to do the same against a UVA team that blitzes even more than Pitt does. This is a game where the Hokies need to use the screen game and misdirection to slow down UVA’s front seven. Tech will also want to challenge UVA’s corners. The Hokies have a good matchup there and will need to exploit it with their big and talented wide receivers.

These rivalry games can be tough to predict. There are always unexpected turns, trick plays and turnovers that can play a big role in the outcome. The Hokies need to not get caught up in the extracurricular activities of this rivalry game. Expect the Hokies to put a lot of pressure on Bryce Perkins. That has been a game plan that has worked well for this defense in the last two weeks. Also, expect the Hokies wide receivers to get the ball in space against Virginia’s corners. The Hokies need to show up and play the same type of football that they’ve been playing for the last six weeks. This year, the Hokies have the better squad. They just need to show up and play their game. If they do, they have a very good chance to win this one.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 31, Virginia 17

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Virginia Preview and Prediction

The Hokies are going through a rough stretch. They have lost 4 straight and 4 straight home games for the first time in program history. Up next is UVA. This game has a 25-year bowl streak and a 14-year winning streak against UVA on the line. The Hokies have the talent necessary to win this game, but they are going through a crisis of confidence right now. They can’t catch a break.

Virginia Tech

Overall S&P+ Rank: 82nd
Offensive S&P+ Rank: 54th
Defensive S&P+ Rank: 89th
Special Teams S&P+ Rank: 82nd

Virginia

Overall S&P+ Rank: 44th
Offensive S&P+ Rank: 64th
Defensive S&P+ Rank: 35th
Special Teams S&P+ Rank: 87th

Virginia is a good team this season. For the first time in a couple of years. The best way to describe them is solid in all phases of the game. Their quarterback, Bryce Perkins, is a dual-threat QB that completes passes at a high percentage and can also pick up yards on the ground. This team likes to use the run to set up the pass. Perkins is averaging 6.4 yards per carry and 9 rushing touchdowns this season. Virginia’s tailback, Jordan Ellis, is averaging 4.9 yards per carry. This is a good rushing team that can also throw the ball downfield. The Hoos most talented deep threat is Olamide Zaccheaus. He is averaging 11.8 yards per catch and has 8 receiving touchdowns this season.

Virginia is very good against the pass. If you hope to move the ball against this defense, you need to get something going on the ground. This is a game where Ryan Willis and Steven Peoples will need to find some yards on the ground. They don’t need to force it but there needs to be a good mix in playcalling. Yards through the air will be hard to come by. Keep an eye out for Juan Thornhill and Bryce Hall in the secondary. The Hoos also have two talented linebackers in Zane Zandier and Chris Peace.

If the Hokies hope to win this game, they are going to need to bring some intensity which has been missing in recent weeks. A rivalry game may be what this team needs to up their level of intensity. If the Hokies can play like they did in the first half against Miami and sustain it for 60 minutes, they should be in good shape. This team needs to not worry about the streaks on the line and focus on winning one game. Have a 1-0 mentality. On paper, UVA looks like the more experienced team but rivalry games can get crazy sometimes. Especially in a series that has been as lopsided as this one. As much as the Hokies are suffering a crisis of confidence, the Hoos also haven’t beaten the Hokies in 14 years. You could say the Hokies are in the Hoos’ heads. Barring a major turnaround from the Hokies, this feels like the week a couple of streaks come to an end.

Prediction: Virginia 31, Virginia Tech 21

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Virginia Preview and Prediction

The Hokies pulled out an epic comeback against Notre Dame. The biggest one since NC State in 2010. The second half was the best half of football this team has had since the first half of the Duke game. All season I’ve been waiting to see the team that had three excellent games against BC, ECU and UNC. There have been glimpses and spurts but it hasn’t been consistent. Putting together a complete game against UVA would be huge for this team.

UVA has only won two games this season. They beat Central Michigan at home and beat Duke on the road. They’ve been able to keep games reasonably close but haven’t been able to close the deal. This looks like a team that has been improving throughout the year but may not have all the pieces in place yet.

Virginia Tech

Overall S&P+ ranking: 27th
Offensive S&P+ ranking: 58th
Defensive S&P+ ranking: 19th
Special Teams S&P+ ranking: 41st

Virginia

Overall S&P+ ranking: 92nd
Offensive S&P+ ranking: 86th
Defensive S&P+ ranking: 81st
Special Teams S&P+ ranking: 86th

At quarterback, Virginia will be playing either Matt Johns or Kurt Benkert or both. Matt Johns has the higher completion rate but also has the higher interception ratio. Kurt Benkert has a better touchdown-to-interception ratio but he has the lower completion rate. Neither quarterback is much of a threat to run (thank goodness!). Both have had their moments this year but have been inconsistent overall. UVA is best in the passing game so they will need a big game from whoever is playing quarterback for them.

Running back Taquan Mizzell is a big weapon that the Hokies must account for. Particularly in the passing game. He is a threat to make plays out of the backfield. He has over 400 receiving yards this season in addition to over 800 yards rushing. UVA runs a lot of their offense through Mizzell. The Hokies need to keep an eye on him whether UVA is running or passing.

UVA has not been consistent on defense but they have three big-time players. The Hokies need to account for Micah Kiser (MLB), Quin Blanding (FS) and Andrew Brown (DE). These are UVA’s playmakers and have the ability to change a game. The Hokies will have to be able to win the one-on-one battles with them to have success on Saturday.

This is a huge game because it will likely decide whether the Hokies go to the ACC Championship Game. That would be a big step forward in Justin Fuente’s first season as head coach. UVA would like nothing more than to spoil those plans. They would also like to put an end to the Hokies’ 12 game winning streak in the series. Rivalry games are never easy. Throw the records out the window. Both teams want to win this game bad. The Hokies just have more talent and motivation this time around.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 30, Virginia 20

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UVA Preview and Prediction

This is a must win. Can you imagine Mike London’s team ending Frank Beamer’s last season with a loss and snapping the bowl streak? Neither can I. But realistically, it could happen.

The Hoos are a middling team, as they have been for the past decade or so. They’ve been surprisingly tough at home. They’ve taken Notre Dame, Pitt, Miami and Louisville to the final whistle. This doesn’t appear to be a UVA team that you can put away early.

On offense, UVA is effective in the passing game. They are ranked 45th in the nation in passing offense and move the ball pretty well thru the air. With a banged up Brandon Facyson, that could be something to watch for.

When VT has the football, they are going up against a defense that hasn’t been particularly impressive. By the numbers, it’s a struggling offense against a struggling defense. The Hokies will need a big day from Travon McMillian in order to move the ball consistently.

If there is one area where the Hokies should have an advantage, it is on special teams. Even though it may not seem like it, the Hokies have been very efficient on special teams this year and in a close game like this, it could play to the Hokies advantage. Watch for this particularly on punt and kick returns.

The stats show the Hokies as a slight favorite in this matchup. If you’re looking from a talent standpoint, the Hokies should have a moderate talent advantage over the Hoos. If the Hokies play as well as they did against UNC, they should win by two scores. Ultimately, I think it’ll be a close game just like last year’s game was. Whoever makes the biggest mistake or the worst mistake will lose. Hopefully, the Hokies find a way to win and make it twelve straight and send Beamer to his 23rd bowl game.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 24, UVA 17