Date & Time: Saturday, November 15th, 2025 at 7:30 p.m. ET Location: Doak-Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, Florida Matchup: Virginia Tech (3-6 overall, 2-3 in ACC) vs. Florida State (4-5 overall, 1-5 in ACC) Television: ACC Network
Virginia Tech has a tough 3-game stretch to close the season. Florida State on the road, 18th ranked Miami at home, then close with 14th ranked Virginia on the road. This is an opportunity to build momentum for next year and for the next head coach. A lot of guys on this year’s team may not be here next year and this is an audition for the next coaching staff who will want to see who shined on this year’s team.
The Virginia Tech offense is good when they can run the ball. Can they run and control clock against Florida State? They need to get back to the formula that worked against Cal. Run your two top RBs and get Drones going in the run game. That’s the Hokies best path to moving ball against Florida State and for the rest of the season.
Virginia Tech has done a good job against Tommy Castellanos in the past when he was at Boston College. He is one of the few dual threat QBs that the Hokies have had success against. Castellanos looks like a more accomplished passer this year but the Hokies have shown they can get stops when they get pressure. A consistent pass rush would be big to securing a win this week.
When the Hokies have played the Seminoles in the past, it’s always come down to turnovers and special teams plays. This week will be no different. The team that can win the turnover battle and/or break a big special teams play will be the one who comes away with the win this week.
Florida State has been tough to figure out. They’ve won one out of their last six games. That one game was a beatdown of a pretty good Wake Forest team. They’ve played everyone else reasonably close but haven’t been able to get on the winning end of these games. They are a talented team but haven’t quite put it all together (except for the one Wake game). Virginia Tech has a decent chance in this game but they have to play a clean game. No bad turnovers or special teams snafus. All things being equal, Florida State has enough juice to win this game at home in a night game.
Prediction: Florida State 35, Virginia Tech 20
📈 Betting Line & Market
Moneyline: Florida State -578 (85% implied probability of a win)
Spread: FSU favored by roughly 12.5 to 14 points depending on book.
Total (Over/Under): Around 54.5 points in several books.
📊 Market Signals & What They Suggest
The large spread and heavy moneyline favorite status for Florida State indicates the market views them significantly stronger. The “win probability” derived from those odds (especially model‐based predictions) puts FSU at ~80%+ chance.
The O/U at ~54.5 suggests moderate scoring expectation — not a low‐scoring defensive slugfest, but also not expected to be a track meet above 60+.
Some line movement: initial spreads around –13.5 for FSU in reporting.
This week we are doing ACC preseason predictions from our favorite Hokie podcast and Twitter personalities. We have preseason picks from Twitter personality OXVT (@OX_VT), Brian Seigla (@seigs5052) from the Boundary Corner Podcast, and Pete B. (@petebvt) from the Two Deep Podcast. We are also joined by ACC contributors Casey (Clemson) and Dirty Bird (Miami) with their picks for the 2024 ACC football season.
It was great to see Virginia Tech get back to playing what resembled Virginia Tech football. What has been holding the team back this season is the inability to run and stop the run. On Saturday, they were able to do both and get a big win at home. To push for a bowl game this season, they will need to replicate that success in the coming weeks. They did it against a good Pitt defense but upcoming weeks may provide a tougher challenge.
SP+ Rankings
Virginia Tech
Overall: 72nd Offense: 92nd Defense: 42nd Special Teams: 46th
Florida State
Overall: 18th Offense: 15th Defense: 25th Special Teams: 15th
Florida State has a good but not great offense. The key to their offense is Jordan Travis and the passing game. This is actually a decent matchup for VT who has been good against the pass this season. Look for Florida State to try to take advantage of Virginia Tech’s leaky run game. If Tech can hold their own against FSU’s run game, it is going to be much tougher for the ‘Noles to move the ball in this game. Tech needs to key-in on Keon Coleman in the pass game and Trey Benson in the run game.
Florida State is not as good as you would expect defensively. Statistically, Virginia Tech has a better defense. FSU has played stronger competition to this point but if I were a Florida State fan, I’d worry about their ability to stop the pass. While Virginia Tech does not have a strong passing attack, Kyron Drones has shown enough now to be dangerous. Especially if Jaylin Lane is back to 100% healthy and Quan Felton can be a consistent deep threat. The challenge that Tech will have will be keeping the ground game going long enough to keep FSU honest on defense.
I like this game on paper a lot more than I thought I would. Florida State’s strengths actually matchup pretty well against Virginia Tech’s. It’s not as horrible a matchup as I thought it would be. The Hokies have the schedule helping them a bit in this one too. While Florida State is coming off a bye and should be healthy, it’s easy to let your guard down when it’s your first home game in a month. Not to mention, I don’t like byes this early in the season. Rust becomes a factor for teams who rely on the passing game. I could be wrong but this seems like it could be a competitive game. Florida State definitely has more talent but Tech has enough going for them right now to give them a game. FSU’s talent advantage will eventually wear down the Hokies but this game looks more like the ‘Noles game with BC where it came down to the 4th quarter.
This week we are joined by Florida State athletics podcast Plant The Spear. You can follow them on Twitter at @PlantTheSpear1. You can also check out their podcast here.
Tell us about yourself and your podcast.
My name is Jesse, and I have bled garnet and gold my entire life. I have so many great memories as an FSU fan. From meeting Bobby Bowden to watching FSU win a national championship in person. At the same time, I just love the game. I could watch two community colleges play on a Tuesday.
It has always been a dream of mine to work in college football, but I don’t have a journalism degree, so I had to create my own path. I had talked about starting an FSU podcast for years but was too nervous. My wife finally talked me into it, probably because she was tired of hearing me talk about football and Plant The Spear was born.
I try to provide a unique perspective in a way everyone can enjoy. I have been known to turn into a stat-head sometimes but we also have fun with it. I’m very active on social media because engaging with people is what it is all about. I also have a website, make graphics, and put out a preseason digital magazine.
I still work full-time, and it is a one-man operation, so I stay busy trying to keep up, but I love it. It has grown faster than I could have imagined, and I am excited for the future!
What are your thoughts on Florida State so far this year?
FSU came into 2023 with high expectations, and those were fed rocket fuel after the LSU game. However, despite being 4-0 and ranked in the Top 5, FSU has honestly played about one good half of football (the second half vs. LSU).
That speaks to how far this team has come when you consider they blew out LSU and beat Clemson in Death Valley, something they had not done in almost a decade.
Some aspects have not been up to par with expectations, mainly the run game and pass defense, but both have been affected by injuries. Thankfully, it has not cost them yet. Hopefully, the BC game was a wake-up call because as high as the potential is for this team, they still have work to do.
The bye week was perfectly timed, especially with Jordan Travis being banged up. Last year, FSU came out of the bye week on fire and won the next four games by a combined score of 173-39 and has not lost since. (Currently on a 10-game win streak)
Hopefully, we see the same type of improvement coming out of the bye this year because I honestly feel if they play up to their highest potential, this team can win an ACC title and be in the hunt for a playoff spot. At the same time, there are still challenging games on the schedule, and if they fail to clean up some of the issues, it could cost them.
How has the Florida State program changed since the last time these teams met in 2018?
Let me first say that what a roller coaster ride it has been! I was at that game, and the atmosphere was electric. We thought we were on the verge of something special that night. Then games got played, and it was a disastrous ride to one of the lowest points in the last 50 years at FSU. I obviously don’t think Willie Taggart intended on things going like they did, but he wasn’t ready for a place like FSU.
Mike Norvell came in to try and turn things around, and it only got worse. I do think people have to realize the mess he walked into. He inherited a program that Jimbo Fisher flew into the side of a mountain and Willie Taggart set on fire. The culture was broken, the talent level was declining, and on top of all that, year one for Norvell was the COVID year.
As bad as it was, FSU stuck with Norvell because there were signs that the program was being run correctly. The main issue was now a lack of talent and depth. After all, it is hard to run an offense that is “built for playmakers” without any playmakers. They addressed a lot of their deficiencies through the portal and have had an unbelievable hit rate with transfers.
Perhaps the single biggest factor in the turnaround at FSU has been a transformation of the offensive line by Alex Atkins. FSU struggled to conduct practice in the past because the depth was so bad. Now they have former Power 5 starters as depth players. The development of Jordan Travis has also been big for FSU. The talent level from top to bottom is much better now. However, the level of coaching and the culture in the locker room are night and day from what it was in 2018.
It is almost hard to believe how far FSU has come, knowing where they were just a short time ago. They have a great Athletic Director, facility upgrades on the way, and the fan support is back to where it needs to be. While success is never guaranteed, it seems like the future is bright at FSU, and I’m just thankful for it because that down period was ROUGH!
How do you view the current state of the Virginia Tech football program?
There is so much potential waiting to be unlocked at a program like VT. They have some of the best and most loyal fans in the nation, a great game-day atmosphere, and have had success in the past. From the outside looking in, unfortunately, it sounds like the university failed to do what is necessary for the football program to compete at a high level in recent years.
That has put VT in a hard place. As you get further removed from historical success and do not have current success to sell either recruiting becomes extremely hard. This is something we saw happen at FSU. Virginia Tech has not had a top-25 recruiting class since 2018. Another tough year in 2023 isn’t going to help them get an infusion of talent, which is what they really need. FSU was lucky to have bounced back so quickly. I think the fear of every successful program that has fallen on hard times is becoming the next Nebraska or Miami, just 20 years of average.
If I am being honest, when I saw VT hire Brent Pry, it did not scream they were ready to play big-time football again. I hope he proves me wrong because college football is better when VT is good, the ACC needs VT to be good, and Brent Pry is a likable guy who won me over at ACC media days.
On a personal note to VT fans. I flew to Pasadena in 2014 and watched FSU reach the top of the college football mountain. Then, just seven years later, I sat in Doak Campbell Stadium and watched FSU lose its first game to an FCS opponent in program history. To put it frankly, this recent down period sucked.
I know Saturdays are not much fun right now, but keep the faith because you never know when things will turn around, and it can happen faster than you expect. FSU started 0-4 in 2021 with a loss to Jacksonville State. Only two years later, they are off to a 4-0 start, ranked in the top 5, and trying to make a run at the playoffs. I honestly feel like Virginia Tech just needs a spark of success to reignite the program we all know it can be!
What is your outlook for the future of the ACC?
Well… It’s not great. But they aren’t dead yet. The expansion to add SMU, Cal, and Stanford felt reactionary and didn’t really move the needle. It may just be rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic in the long run, but at least they did something.
The future of the ACC depends heavily on whether they can somehow renegotiate the TV contract for more money, and a lot of it. If they lose Clemson and FSU, they are in big trouble. Those two programs were top 15 in viewership in 2022, averaging over 2M weekly viewers. The next closest ACC team in viewership was NC State at 43rd with 881k.
TV networks only care about eyes on screens. If the ACC loses its two biggest viewership drivers, and we all know they aren’t getting Notre Dame, I don’t see how it could end well for the conference.
To give perspective (counting future expansion), there were 16 Big Ten teams and 14 SEC teams that ranked above the third-highest ACC team in viewership. It’s hard to ask for the same money as the two power conferences when 85% of the conference doesn’t produce similar TV numbers. I know that sounds harsh, but the numbers are what they are.
Another thing to keep in mind with FSU and Clemson is that their biggest rivals are both in the SEC. So, they have to keep up with teams who will be making significantly more money if something doesn’t change. The standard at those two programs is to compete for national championships. That becomes harder when you are projected to make 30-50 million per year less than the other two power conferences in the not-so-distant future.
The ACC must find a way to squeeze more revenue from their TV partners before those two programs find a way out of the GOR.
As I write this, rumors are flying that Clemson is headed for the door as soon as October. If so, I would have to imagine FSU would be soon to follow. No concrete news has broken yet, but the ACC may look different after you read this.
I don’t think the conference will have to dissolve if a few teams leave. However, the football success and TV viewership would obviously take a massive hit and likely lead to a revenue cut in the future.
What conference do you see Florida State belonging to in the next 5-10 years?
This was the hottest topic of the offseason. The majority of FSU fans, myself included, want to end up in the SEC. It just makes sense from a regional standpoint, we already play Florida every year, and FSU feels more like an SEC team than anything else. However, geography apparently does not matter when you have teams from California soon to be in the Atlantic Coast Conference.
During the offseason, the majority of signs pointed to the Big Ten. At the end of the day, I don’t think FSU really cares where they go as long as the revenue growth allows them to compete at the highest level. I wouldn’t take staying in the ACC completely out of the question if they can do something about the revenue. However, once the math makes sense to leave, they will head for the door.
If FSU does leave, I hope it is for the SEC. But I have a feeling it will end up being the Big Ten. This is a tough one, but it is obviously either the SEC, Big Ten, or ACC. I would love for them to stay put until our return trip to Blacksburg because I have always wanted to experience a game in Lane Stadium!
What are your expectations for the Virginia Tech game?
In my opinion, FSU has two of the best wins so far this season. They beat LSU by 3 touchdowns and beat Clemson in Death Valley. However, they have continued to drop in the polls. They are obviously being punished for having two close games.
The BC game was ugly, and while there were rumors that a lot of the team had the flu, it still should not have been that close. I also think winning in Death Valley is being underappreciated because Clemson was not ranked. As ACC fans know, that is no easy task, considering they had not previously lost an ACC home game since 2016.
I say all that to say this: FSU needs a win with some style points. I know this is not exactly breaking news to VT faithful, but as nicely as I can put it, the Hokies aren’t very good this year. While wins are wins, and if FSU wins every game by 1 point they will still be undefeated. However, for the sake of national perception, they can’t have another BC game against a bad team.
FSU has been a tale of two halves this season. They struggle in the first half but then play well in the second half. I would really like to see them put together a complete game against VT. They have struggled to run the ball and only had 22 yards against Clemson. Seeing that VT has allowed over 200 yards rushing in three of their four games this season, I’d like for FSU to get the run game going.
On defense, the secondary has seen its fair share of struggles. They routinely make average quarterbacks look like Heisman candidates. Since VT lost Ali Jennings, they haven’t thrown for over 200 yards in a game. I would like to see the FSU secondary have a nice game to gain confidence.
I don’t see this one being particularly close. The game is sold out, and FSU is coming off a much-needed bye week. FSU has scored 30+ points in 10 straight games, and I feel good about them going over that number this week, too. As much as the Hokie offense has struggled, I don’t think FSU will shut them out because we haven’t held anyone scoreless since 2015. I also expect the backups to get a fair number of reps in this game.
I’m really just looking for FSU to play a clean game for four quarters and win as they should. There are not many remnants left from 2018, but for those of us who sat in Doak and watched the VT players mock the Warchant. I hope this is a revenge game.
(The original answers were written prior to the Saturday night win against Pitt. Even though Pitt is struggling this season, this was a big win for Virginia Tech’s confidence and will be something they can build from going forward. Kyron Drones had a HUGE game. VT surpassed the 200-yard mark through the air, which I mention later on, and Drones’ dual-threat ability might just be the spark this offense needs. FSU really struggles with mobile quarterbacks (see the BC game), so I’m adding some points to the score total for VT. If Drones keeps playing at a high level, there are some very winnable games left on the schedule for VT.)
The upcoming ACC football season is going to be wild. Virginia going winless? Drake Maye's butt hurt ruining UNC's season? These predictions and more in this thread!#ACC#CollegeFootball#Hokiespic.twitter.com/wf1ixutWJZ
The Hokies have another big opening game on national television. Last year it was West Virginia. The year before it was Tennessee in week 2. The Hokies winning against West Virginia made a big statement. They need to start winning these games more often than not in order to grow the program to new levels. If the Hokies lose, everyone will say “same old Hokies.”
The Hokies focus in this game needs to be on stopping the run and forcing Deondre Francois to beat them with his arm. This was the game plan against Clemson last season but Clemson was still able to run all over the Hokies with big plays. The Hokies need to do a better job this time around. Play assignment football and wrap up their tackles. That’s a lot to ask from a very young defense – particularly from first time starters at linebacker. They can’t have Cam Akers and company run for big plays against them. Florida State has the running backs to create big plays out of mistakes from a young defense.
I expect good things from the offense. The Florida State defense has a lot of talent but I trust Fuente to have some different looks to throw at them. This has the potential to be the best offensive line the Hokies have put out in years. The Hokies have pass catching weapons that they didn’t have a year ago. Virginia Tech needs to be able to move the ball on the ground. That will require a big games from Deshawn McClease, Steven Peoples and Josh Jackson. A solid ground game will open things up through the air and make life easier on Josh Jackson. Florida State is also starting two young and smallish linebackers. Expect Fuente and Cornelsen to try to confuse them with RPOs and misdirection.
Teams that have been able to beat the Hokies in recent years have been able to do so by beating them through the air. The Hokies will need to limit big plays with their young secondary. If the Hokies are giving up big plays, the will have a tough time winning this matchup. The Hokies need to make Florida State drive the field to score. Big plays would be a big problem – like they were against Clemson last year. The Hokies need to prepare their young linebackers for the tempo that Florida State will play at.
The lack of depth on the defensive line is a big concern. The talent is there but there is not a lot of depth. Willie Taggart likes to play with tempo on offense which will takes it toll on a thin defensive line throughout the game. It will be critical for the Hokies to get off the field so they are not gassed by the fourth quarter. If they are on the field too long, that’s when you can expect big plays from FSU’s talented running backs.
This game will be closer than many experts think. Even though Florida State has a great home atmosphere, especially at night, they do have their issues too. I don’t expect the FSU offensive line to be able to handle the Hokies defensive line the way many are expecting which will limit the damage from their running backs. Their offense will have to rely on the passing game which means Deondre Francois will have to put up points with his arm. He will, but probably not as many as a some are expecting. It’ll be a tight, low scoring affair but I still think FSU just has too much talent and firepower at this point and they win it by one score. A big play on special teams could be the difference.
Everyone is saying that the division will come down to the Virginia Tech-Georgia Tech game on November 12th. I tend to agree but I could see Virginia Tech winning that game with 12 days to prepare but lose three games in the rest of ACC play to still hand the division to Georgia Tech. Virginia Tech definitely has the easier ACC slate only having to face Boston College and NC State from the Atlantic division. Georgia Tech, on the other hand, has to face Clemson and Florida State (yikes!).
I see Duke keeping the momentum going under David Cutcliffe. I think we will continue to see Duke be a thorn in the side of other Coastal teams for years to come. I call them the Stanford of the east. Miami will have another Miami-like season, not bad but not great. Probably not enough to save Al Golden’s job. North Carolina will continue to put up points like usual but I’m not sure I trust that defense to show up. I’m not really sure what to expect from Pitt under new coach Pat Narduzzi. I could see them being really good but more than likely they’ll have an up and down season.
And finally Virginia. I actually feel bad for Virginia. Seems like most have already jumped ship on Mike London’s future there and then they get handed a murderer’s row non-conference schedule (@UCLA, Notre Dame & Boise State). Not good.
Atlantic Predictions
Florida State
11-1 (7-1)
Louisville
10-2 (7-1)
Clemson
10-2 (7-1)
Boston College
7-5 (4-4)
North Carolina State
5-7 (2-6)
Syracuse
3-9 (1-7)
Wake Forest
2-10 (0-8)
Florida State still is one of the most talented teams in the country. They have plenty of talent to choose from and will reload in 2015. They will not, however, go undefeated in 2015. The Atlantic division will be a three team race between Florida State, Clemson and Louisville. Clemson has the best quarterback in the league to go along with an improving defense under Brent Venables.
Louisville’s defense will be good enough to keep them in every game. As long as they can find competent quarterback play, they will be a force to be reckoned with. Boston College will continue to be a tough out for anyone they play but that schedule is brutal. Even with raised expectations, I expect NC State to take a step back. I’m not buying the hype there. Syracuse and Wake Forest are a step below the rest of the division.
Closing Thoughts
Finally, the ACC has more than two good teams! I think the ACC will get some respect this year. Between Florida State, Clemson, Louisville, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech and Duke, the ACC has six potential top-25 teams. This is the year to expect the unexpected. Both divisions will have razor thin races going into November. You can look as far as the six games between the teams listed above to decide both divisions. I could even see some crazy tiebreakers go into effect in those division races. It’s been awhile since the league had ranked teams battling it out in each division. Should be an exciting season.