Tag: Hokies

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Belk Bowl Preview and Prediction

The Hokies had a strong showing in the ACC Championship Game against Clemson. They took the Tigers to the final possession. You can tell that the Hokies are close to taking the next step. They may just be a year or two away. Closing strong in recruiting would go a long way towards getting this program to the next level.

The Belk Bowl. It is not a warm weather bowl but a good bowl nonetheless. If the ACCCG had been in Charlotte, I think the Hokies would have gone to Orlando instead. Either way, the Hokies benefit considering Charlotte is only 175 miles from Blacksburg. And within a 6-hour drive for most Hokies. You should see a big contingent of orange and maroon in Charlotte.

Virginia Tech

Overall S&P+ ranking: 24th
Offensive S&P+ ranking: 50th
Defensive S&P+ ranking: 20th
Special Teams S&P+ ranking: 44th

Arkansas

Overall S&P+ ranking: 53rd
Offensive S&P+ ranking: 40th
Defensive S&P+ ranking: 76th
Special Teams S&P+ ranking: 47th

Arkansas reminds me a lot of Pitt. They have a bend but don’t break defense and strong running game. Their offense line is huge! This looks like the type of team that can run it at will on you. Like to the tune of 5 yards per carry. If they get in a groove early, they may be difficult to stop. Particularly with a new starter at defense end (Trevon Hill).

The Arkansas run game also sets up the play action pass down the field. Arkansas leads the SEC in pass yards per play. The run game can lull you to sleep while they go over the top. This is traditionally a scheme that has given the Hokies trouble over the years (see Pitt, GT).

Lucky for the Hokies, Arkansas does not have a running threat from the quarterback. The Hokies will need to focus on stopping the run to make the Razorback offense one dimensional.

On offense, the Hokies should be able to move the ball against the Arkansas defense. The Hokies spread rush attack combined with quarterback runs should have success. The Razorbacks are a little better at stopping the passing game but struggle on defense. It is critical that the Hokies take a lead early. They cannot play from behind in this game. If they do, the Arkansas running game can bludgeon them for long drives.

This is a tough game to pick. On paper, the Hokies are the better team. Offenses are pretty even. Hokies have a sizeable advantage on the defensive side of the ball. I’m concerned about motivation though. Hokies had a good season and played well in the ACC Championship Game. They are feeling good about themselves. Arkansas took a bad loss to Missouri in their last game and they are the underdogs in this game. They may have the advantage in the intangibles. They have more to play for than the Hokies do.

The Hokies are 1-6 in their last seven games against the SEC. They need to start winning games vs the big boys. This game is important for perception and for getting the Hokies back to winning 10 games a season. I think Justin Fuente will have this team prepared and ready to go. If they start the game well, I think they will be in good shape. But if they get down early, watch out. It could be a long day. I think this game will be like the Pitt game earlier in the year and the Hokies are able to pull it out in the end.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 37, Arkansas 30

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ACC Championship Game Preview and Prediction

Hokies took care of business in a big way against UVA. There were some who had serious discussions last year about which school had the better hire. I think the early returns are pretty lopsided. At this point it seems like both programs are going in very different directions.

The Hokies are back to the ACC Championship Game for the first time since 2011. That’s a big deal in Justin Fuente’s first season as head coach. The Hokies are “ahead of schedule” as the experts like to say. I expected a 6-6 season this year because it’s difficult to go through a coaching change. I guess when it’s as smooth as Virginia Tech’s was, it’s not so difficult after all.

Virginia Tech

Overall S&P+ ranking: 27th
Offensive S&P+ ranking: 58th
Defensive S&P+ ranking: 16th
Special Teams S&P+ ranking: 50th

Clemson

Overall S&P+ ranking: 4th
Offensive S&P+ ranking: 8th
Defensive S&P+ ranking: 6th
Special Teams S&P+ ranking: 77th

Clemson is a beast. They deserve their #3 College Football Playoff ranking. This team is loaded on both sides of the ball. They don’t have many weaknesses. The Hokies are good but the Tigers are great. It’ll take the Hokies A+ game to knock off the Tigers.

Clemson has NFL talent all over the field. Everyone on the offensive side of the ball stands a good chance of being drafted in the next couple of years. Same with the defense except for maybe one or two players. Remember a lot of the names from the Clemson roster, because you’ll be hearing those names in the NFL in the coming years.

Are you tired of me fawning over Clemson yet? Me too. Where are Clemson’s weaknesses? Their turnover margin is not particularly good. When Deshaun Watson does throw the ball, he’s been known to throw interceptions. He has 14 on the year. Bud Foster is a master at forcing quarterbacks into mistakes. If the Hokies can make the Tigers one-dimensional by slowing down the run, they may be able to force some mistakes. Remember that Deshaun Watson is a dual-threat quarterback. He could give the Hokies a lot of trouble on the ground, if they call designed runs for him. In a championship game, I’d expect Clemson to take more chances with Watson on the ground.

Clemson’s special teams are only so-so. The Hokies would be wise to make some plays on special teams in this game. Either in the return game or on a blocked kick. This is an area that the Hokies can look to exploit and possibly change the trajectory of the game.

The reality here is that Clemson is just a better team. Maybe after a few good years under Fuente and some good recruiting classes, the Hokies can be on that level. But they just aren’t right now. There is a big-time talent and depth advantage for Clemson. Can the Hokies win? Sure. Pitt beat Clemson this year. But it’ll take a great effort from the Hokies and some fortunate plays/bounces/calls. I think this game will be like the 2011 ACC Championship game. Close in the first half but Clemson runs away with it in the 2nd half.

Prediction: Clemson 34, Virginia Tech 20

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Virginia Preview and Prediction

The Hokies pulled out an epic comeback against Notre Dame. The biggest one since NC State in 2010. The second half was the best half of football this team has had since the first half of the Duke game. All season I’ve been waiting to see the team that had three excellent games against BC, ECU and UNC. There have been glimpses and spurts but it hasn’t been consistent. Putting together a complete game against UVA would be huge for this team.

UVA has only won two games this season. They beat Central Michigan at home and beat Duke on the road. They’ve been able to keep games reasonably close but haven’t been able to close the deal. This looks like a team that has been improving throughout the year but may not have all the pieces in place yet.

Virginia Tech

Overall S&P+ ranking: 27th
Offensive S&P+ ranking: 58th
Defensive S&P+ ranking: 19th
Special Teams S&P+ ranking: 41st

Virginia

Overall S&P+ ranking: 92nd
Offensive S&P+ ranking: 86th
Defensive S&P+ ranking: 81st
Special Teams S&P+ ranking: 86th

At quarterback, Virginia will be playing either Matt Johns or Kurt Benkert or both. Matt Johns has the higher completion rate but also has the higher interception ratio. Kurt Benkert has a better touchdown-to-interception ratio but he has the lower completion rate. Neither quarterback is much of a threat to run (thank goodness!). Both have had their moments this year but have been inconsistent overall. UVA is best in the passing game so they will need a big game from whoever is playing quarterback for them.

Running back Taquan Mizzell is a big weapon that the Hokies must account for. Particularly in the passing game. He is a threat to make plays out of the backfield. He has over 400 receiving yards this season in addition to over 800 yards rushing. UVA runs a lot of their offense through Mizzell. The Hokies need to keep an eye on him whether UVA is running or passing.

UVA has not been consistent on defense but they have three big-time players. The Hokies need to account for Micah Kiser (MLB), Quin Blanding (FS) and Andrew Brown (DE). These are UVA’s playmakers and have the ability to change a game. The Hokies will have to be able to win the one-on-one battles with them to have success on Saturday.

This is a huge game because it will likely decide whether the Hokies go to the ACC Championship Game. That would be a big step forward in Justin Fuente’s first season as head coach. UVA would like nothing more than to spoil those plans. They would also like to put an end to the Hokies’ 12 game winning streak in the series. Rivalry games are never easy. Throw the records out the window. Both teams want to win this game bad. The Hokies just have more talent and motivation this time around.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 30, Virginia 20

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Notre Dame Preview and Prediction

It’s always frustrating to see the Hokies let an opportunity slip through their fingers. Having the Coastal wrapped up before a trip to Notre Dame and visit from UVA would’ve been nice. Oh well. The Hokies will just have a little extra motivation against their in-state rival next week.

Notre Dame. One of the pillar programs of college football. To me, Notre Dame is Rudy. A movie about a kid who idolizes a college football program so much, he’ll do anything to play for them. Pretty epic stuff. Besides that, they are a strong program but they are not what they once were. Either way, going to Notre Dame is a big deal. Just ask any older Tech alums. You would think the Hokies were playing at the Vatican this weekend.

Virginia Tech

Overall S&P+ ranking: 28th
Offensive S&P+ ranking: 65th
Defensive S&P+ ranking: 14th
Special Teams S&P+ ranking: 52nd

Notre Dame

Overall S&P+ ranking: 33rd
Offensive S&P+ ranking: 44th
Defensive S&P+ ranking: 30th
Special Teams S&P+ ranking: 57th

A running quarterback. DeShone Kizer. Terrified yet? Kizer has not cracked 100 yards on the ground in a game this year. But if the Hokies history with running quarterbacks is any indication, this could be the week he does it. I got a text from a Notre Dame fan this week, he said Brian Kelly threw the ball 26 times in a hurricane this year. So I guess you never know what’s going to happen. But if the Notre Dame staff has watched film this week, you can expect to see a lot of designed runs for Kizer.

Notre Dame has a young secondary and a front seven that has had trouble pressuring the quarterback. You would think this could be a week that the Hokies could put up big numbers through the air. The current weather forecast calls for temperatures in the 30s, high winds and snow. Doesn’t sound like ideal conditions to throw the football in.

One big question mark in this game is how the Notre Dame defense is going to play. Since switching defensive coordinators to Greg Hudson, the defense has played well. Two of those games were against service academies. One was in a hurricane. And one was against a struggling Stanford offense. My guess is that they play better than expected and get assisted by the poor weather conditions.

Given the poor weather conditions, I’m looking for the team that runs the ball better. And I’d have to give the nod to Notre Dame. All the stats suggest they are the better rushing team. And the Hokies have had trouble stopping the run in the last three weeks. That plus the conditions make me think that this is not a good matchup for the Hokies.

I don’t like this matchup on paper. At all. It’s made even worse by the weather conditions. The Hokies can win this game if they are able to make plays on special teams and generate turnovers. The old Beamerball special. If not, I’m afraid this game looks pretty good on paper for Notre Dame. I hope I’m wrong. It would be great to go into South Bend and come out with a win.

Prediction: Notre Dame 24, Virginia Tech 17

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Georgia Tech Preview and Prediction

You take conference road wins however you can get them. Even if they are ugly. Getting the win is all that matters. Hokies took care of business on the road at Duke last week. Each week the games get bigger.

Georgia Tech is next. This is a team that gives the Hokies fits every year. This year should be no different. This is an offense that stays in every game. They don’t often get blown out. They limit possessions on both sides of the ball. That means your offense has to be efficient.

Virginia Tech

Overall S&P+ ranking: 17th
Offensive S&P+ ranking: 56th
Defensive S&P+ ranking: 11th
Special Teams S&P+ ranking: 36th

Georgia Tech

Overall S&P+ ranking: 62nd
Offensive S&P+ ranking: 44th
Defensive S&P+ ranking: 81st
Special Teams S&P+ ranking: 74th

How will Bud Foster’s reshuffled lineup perform against the Georgia Tech offense? If there was a game where you’d feel okay losing Greg Stroman and Terrell Edmunds, it’s this one. However, you’re asking your backups not to make many assignment errors. That can be a lot to ask sometimes. Either way, I think Bud Foster knows this offense well enough to make those adjustments. He will put his players in a position to succeed.

This is a game where the Hokies offense should be able to move the ball. First, the Hokies offense has been excellent at home. The Hokies have averaged 46.7 points per game against FBS opponents at Lane Stadium this year. The Georgia Tech defense has had trouble stopping opponents this year. They don’t give up the big play but you can dink and dunk them downfield all day long. Expect the Hokies to put up some points in this game.

You worry about the reshuffled lineup on defense. You never know how that’s going to go against a dangerous Georgia Tech offense. But if there is someone who knows how to scheme against that offense, it’s Bud Foster. Also, this offense has been lights out at home. They look like a completely different team in Lane Stadium. If the defense can hold up and not have too many assignment issues, I expect the Hokies will be fine. I never go into this game expecting a comfortable win. But if the Hokies play at home like they have all season, I’m feeling pretty good.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 34, Georgia Tech 21

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Pittsburgh Preview and Prediction

The Hokies bounced back from the Syracuse loss in a big way against Miami. Now let’s see how they handle coming off a big win. The Hokies didn’t handle success very well last time. They immediately lost to Syracuse after a big win against UNC. Let’s hope we see more focus from the Hokies this time around.

The Virginia Tech-Pittsburgh series is one of the weirdest you’ll see. The Hokies dominated in the 90’s and that flipped in the 2000’s. The Hokies went 7 of the first 8 games in the series. Pitt has won 6 of 7 since 2000.

pittsburgh_series

Unlike previous visits to Heinz Field, I think this visit will get the Hokies full attention. This Pittsburgh team will not sneak up on the Hokies this time. This game is the Hokies biggest remaining obstacle to a trip to the ACC Championship Game.

Virginia Tech

Overall S&P+ ranking: 12th
Offensive S&P+ ranking: 56th
Defensive S&P+ ranking: 6th
Special Teams S&P+ ranking: 23rd

Pittsburgh

Overall S&P+ ranking: 33rd
Offensive S&P+ ranking: 29th
Defensive S&P+ ranking: 56th
Special Teams S&P+ ranking: 63rd

What is Pittsburgh good at? Running the ball and stopping the run. The key to slowing down their offense will be to shut down their run game. Even if the Hokies do that, they need to be able to stop their mobile QB from making plays with his feet. He doesn’t run a lot but can break the pocket to pick up a first down or two. The Hokies need to be ready for that.

Pittsburgh has the 5th ranked rushing defense in the nation.  They are very good at stopping the run. If the Hokies hope to win this game, they will need to move the ball through the air. Pittsburgh ranks 122nd in passing yards allowed. You would think the Hokies should be able to throw against this defense. If the Hokies do pass a lot, watch out for Ejuan Price off the edge. He leads the nation with 9 sacks this season.

On paper, the Hokies should win this game. But games aren’t played on paper. The last three times the Hokies have been to Heinz Field, they scored 6 points or less in the first half. This time they need to get off to a better start and put the Pitt offense and defense on their heels early. Unlike previous meetings, I think that Pitt has the Hokies full attention. I think you’ll see a much better performance than you’ve seen in previous visits to Pittsburgh.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 31, Pittsburgh 24

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Midseason Awards and Outlook

Offensive MVP: Jerod Evans

This guy is on pace for 2,700 yards, 34 TDs and 4 INTs. If he keeps it up in the second half, he will receive consideration for all conference awards. And maybe even some national awards. He has been the biggest difference maker for the Hokies this season.

Honorable mention: Isaiah Ford

Defensive MVP: Andrew Motuapuaka

This one might sound kinda crazy but the stats bear it out. He’s been the Hokies most consistent defender. If you are looking for a reason for the defense’s improvement, look to him. He leads the team in tackles with 57. He has 3 TFLs. 1 Sack. 1 INT. 4 quarterback hurries. And 1 fumble recovery. He has been excellent and somewhat underrated.

Honorable mention: Tremaine Edmunds, Ken Ekanem

Special Teams MVP: Greg Stroman

Stroman has been a game changer on punt returns. He has also been good about taking care of the football. Fair catching when he needs to. Taking a knee in the end zone. He’s making all the right decisions and the Hokies are excelling at special teams again.

Honorable mention: Mitchell Ludwig, Joey Slye

2nd Half Outlook

The Hokies are a better team than they looked against Syracuse. They are better on offense and defense. It was just one of those games where it kind of got away from them. Syracuse was the inspired team and didn’t make many mistakes. The Hokies showed up and went thru the motions for a lot of that game. If you do that, you’re going to get upset.

Either way, I only expect the Hokies to lose 1 or 2 more games the rest of the way. Which would put them at 9-3 or 8-4 for the season. That’ll get them to a good bowl game and Justin Fuente’s first season would be considered a success. I still think this program is on the right track but it will take time before this team will be a consistent top 25 team. The program needs improvement in recruiting and more experience in Justin Fuente’s system.

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Syracuse Preview and Prediction

Hokies took care of business against UNC. Three straight blowouts can really inject a lot of life into a fan base. After the Tennessee game, fans were wondering if this team would make a bowl game. Now folks are talking New Year’s Six bowl. A lot can change in a couple of weeks.

On to Syracuse. Long-time Hokies fans still have nightmares about the Carrier Dome. That dome has seen a lot of weird games between the Hokies and the Orange. It also has not been particularly kind to the Hokies. But those games were a long time ago. Different coaching staffs and two different programs at this point in time. The players on these teams were young children the last time these teams played.

This Syracuse team reminds me a lot of the Tulsa team the Hokies played in the Independence Bowl. A great offensive passing attack with one really good play-making wide receiver (Amba Etta-Tawo). And not much of anything else. Didn’t that Tulsa team only lose to the Hokies by 3? They did. But Bud Foster’s D is playing much better this year than they were in the bowl game.

Virginia Tech

S&P+ Overall Ranking: 19th
S&P+ Offensive Ranking: 96th
S&P+ Defensive Ranking: 4th
S&P+ Special Teams Ranking: 22nd

Syracuse

S&P+ Overall Ranking: 68th
S&P+ Offensive Ranking: 43rd
S&P+ Defensive Ranking: 96th
S&P+ Special Teams Ranking: 71st

The Hokies have the clear advantage on defense. Even though Syracuse has an excellent passing attack, the Hokies should be able to slow it down. Syracuse also reminds me of ECU, who was able to have some success in the passing game. But the Hokies were still able to limit ECU below their season average. Syracuse does not take a lot of shots downfield. They are a dink and dunk West Coast offense but they still put up a lot of yards.

Key matchup to watch: Virginia Tech’s cornerbacks vs. Amba Etta-Tawo. Etta-Tawo is one of the best wide receivers in the ACC and one of the best the Hokies will see all season. He leads the ACC in receiving yards. It will be a tough task for the Hokies corners to cover him all day.

Syracuse has lost to every decent team they’ve played this year. Their only wins were against Colgate and UConn. All their losses have been blowouts. Syracuse excels in the passing game and at punt returns (#1 in the nation!) but does not do much of anything else well.

I expect the Hokies to have a bit of a letdown in this game. It’s just so hard to play so well for four consecutive games. Eventually you’re going to have one that’s not exactly a masterpiece. This is a classic trap game on the road sandwiched in between two games against ranked opponents. Even if the Hokies don’t play their best, I still think they can win comfortably. Syracuse is not a great team. In fact, they’re not very good overall. Imagine if this team was playing last year’s Tulsa team, they’d probably win… by a lot. The talent advantage is clearly on the Hokies’ side in this matchup.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 31, Syracuse 17

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North Carolina Preview and Prediction

The Hokies are ranked! Finally. It’s been a long time since Virginia Tech has been in the top 25. Since September 2014 to be exact. After they beat Ohio State. Since then it’s been a lot of .500 football. They’re back in the top 25 and this time it feels like they’ll stay there for a while.

On to North Carolina. This looks like an even matchup on paper. North Carolina has an elite offense. Virginia Tech has an elite defense. North Carolina’s offense has talent but is inconsistent. You can say the same for the Virginia Tech offense. The advanced stats tell the story.

Virginia Tech

S&P+ Rankings: 14th
S&P+ Offensive Ranking: 73rd
S&P+ Defensive Ranking: 7th
S&P+ Special Teams Ranking: 32nd

North Carolina:

S&P+ Rankings: 27th
S&P+ Offensive Ranking: 7th
S&P+ Defensive Ranking: 101st
S&P+ Special Teams Ranking: 20th

This game will come down to special teams plays and turnovers. The team that can make plays on special teams and win the turnover battle will win the game.

If you’re looking for matchups, watch Mitch Trubisky and VT’s secondary. He hasn’t faced a secondary this good all year. The highest ranked secondary he’s faced all year is Georgia. And they rank 92nd in passing efficiency defense. That’s a big jump in competition.

This is going to be a close game. Both teams are very good and deserve their top 25 ranking. Is Virginia Tech’s secondary good enough to slow down UNC’s high powered passing attack? Can Virginia Tech score consistently against a talented but inconsistent defense? Will the Hokies be able to keep Ryan Switzer in check?

North Carolina played very well against Pitt and FSU and pulled out gutsy wins against both. Then you have the Hokies coming off a bye week. There is the whole rest vs rust argument. History tells us Justin Fuente’s teams are good coming off a bye. Let’s hope that’s enough to pull out a tough fought win against the Tar Heels.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 31, North Carolina 30

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East Carolina Preview and Prediction

The game against Boston College was one of the most complete performances in years. It was close to a perfect performance on both sides of the ball. That won’t happen every week. So what is this team? The one that fumbled nine times in two games or the one that played near flawless football against BC?

Next up is East Carolina. A thorn in the side of the Hokies for years. Here are the last seven meetings between the two schools:

Sat., Sep 26, 2015, Greenville, N.C , L, 28-35
Sat., Sep 13, 2014, Blacksburg, Va., L, 21-28
Sat., Sep 14, 2013, Greenville, N.C., W, 15-10
Sat., Sep 10, 2011, Greenville, N.C., W, 17-10
Sat., Sep 18, 2010, Blacksburg, Va., W, 49-27
Thu., Nov 5, 2009, Greenville, N.C., W, 16-3
Sat., Aug 30, 2008, Charlotte, N.C., L, 22-27

Not exactly dominating, huh? The Hokie are 4-3 against ECU over this period. To ECU’s credit, they are 6-0 against the ACC in the last four years. These guys LOVE beating ACC teams and they’re good at it.

09/10/2016 East Carolina 33 – North Carolina St 30 W
09/26/2015 East Carolina 35 – Virginia Tech 28 W
09/20/2014 East Carolina 70 – North Carolina 41 W
09/13/2014 East Carolina 28 – Virginia Tech 21 W
11/23/2013 East Carolina 42 – North Carolina St 28 W
09/28/2013 East Carolina 55 – North Carolina 31 W

Everyone is feeling good after the shutout against BC. Keep in mind the last two times the Hokies played ECU, they were coming off big wins. In 2014, they had just beat Ohio State 35-21 at the Horseshoe. And last year, they had just plastered Purdue on the road 52-24. The Hokies lost both games against ECU coming off those big wins.

New coaching staff. New era. The Hokies rebounded well from a tough loss against Tennessee. Now how will they handle success? Can they string together two good performances in a row?

They key to Bud Fosters defense is keeping teams one dimensional. In 2014, ECU was able to throw it all over the field on the Hokies. In 2015, the Hokies could not stop the ECU ground game. This year, if the Hokies can stop the ECU ground game, the Hokies should be able to slow down their offense.

The ECU defense can be best described as middle of the road. They are a bend but don’t break defense. They’ve been good this year at keeping teams out of the endzone when they get to the redzone. The key to beating ECU is getting their offense off the field. Then when you have the ball, get it into the endzone. Finish your drives.

ECU’s offensive stats have been excellent this year. They rank 9th in the country in total offense. The Hokies will have their hands full trying to keep up with ECU’s receivers. Particularly Zay Jones who almost set an NCAA records for receptions last week.

This is a difficult game to pick. We have yet to see a passing offense this good this year. The Hokies lead the nation in passing yards allowed. They’ll get a big test on Saturday. As long as the Hokies can hang on the football, I feel good about their chances. ECU might be a bit surprised by the offensive firepower that the Hokies bring to the table these days. I think the Hokies defense will be able to stop the run and hang tough against the ECU offense. And the Hokies offense will have another good day against the ECU defense. Particularly in the run game.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 35, ECU 21