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Old Dominion vs Virginia Tech Preview and Prediction

Date & Time: Saturday, September 13th, 7:00pm ET
Location: Lane Stadium, Blacksburg, Virginia
Broadcast: ACC Network (TV), Virginia Tech Sports Network (Radio)

The Brent Pry era at Virginia Tech is over. Whether it happens this week or in three months, he is cooked. He has had many opportunities to right the ship at Virginia Tech and simply has not shown any results. I would argue he doesn’t have a single big win in his 3+ years at Tech. Expectations here have changed over the years but that simply isn’t going to cut it. That wouldn’t cut it at most schools.

Old Dominion is a solid team. They played top 25 Indiana close in the opener and then spanked NC Central last week. This isn’t a team that the Hokies can take lightly. The point spread in this indicates a one possession game, which seems likely in my mind. Virginia Tech is a more talented team but they certainly haven’t looked like one the last two weeks — particularly in 2nd half of games. Expect a rock fight this week.

Virginia Tech saw QB Colton Joseph last year when he came into the game late and only threw two passes and rushed three times. Seems like a solid passer and dual-threat runner. I don’t think he is Diego Pavia but could pose similar issues for the Hokies. He gets the ball a lot in the run game so the Hokies need to be ready to stop an option-style attack, similar to Vanderbilt’s.

The Hokies need to watch out for RB Trequan Jones who has only touched the ball a few times this year but can break huge runs. It’ll be important to keep him boxed in when he gets touches. Playing disciplined football will be key this week.

As usual, ODU likes to spread the ball out to a lot of receivers. There isn’t really one guy you can key on, which has been their game plan for a few years now. They’ve got a couple of big receivers in Ja’Cory Thomas and Tre Brown who could give the Hokies trouble on jump balls downfield.

ODU has shown that they are a team that can be run on. Indiana rushed for 309 yards on them and NC Central put up 136 yards in a blowout. If Tech wants to win, they need to be able to run the ball consistently against a team that has had trouble stopping the run the first two weeks of the season. ODU is very good in the red zone so they Hokies will need to make sure to punch the ball in when they get inside the 20. An effective running game will help with that.

ODU is a very penalty prone team. That might be something that can help out the Hokies on Saturday. This game will be close so penalties and turnovers could easily swing the outcome. Again, disciplined football would help out a lot this week.

This is a very difficult game to predict. Virginia Tech has the clear talent advantage but they have been playing awful football in the 2nd half of the first two games. If Tech can put together 60 minutes of football, they should be fine. But if the 4th quarter team from the first games shows up, all bets are off. My guess is we get something in the middle. Which still isn’t great but might be enough to squeak a win against a Sun Belt team. Expect a lot of ugly football on Saturday.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 28, Old Dominion 24

Betting Lines Overview

Over/Under (Total Points): Consensus tightly sits between 50.5 and 51 points.

Point Spread: Virginia Tech is favored by 7.5 points, with several sportsbooks offering similar spreads. Circa Sports had initially listed them as 10-point favorites, though that appears to have adjusted.

Moneyline: The Hokies are around –305, implying a win probability of roughly 75%. Old Dominion is priced around +245 to +250.

Predictive Models & Simulations

  • SP+ (Bill Connelly’s model)
    Offers a 67% win probability for Virginia Tech, with a projected final score of 31–24 in favor of the Hokies. This system adjusts for tempo and opponent quality and is designed to be forward-looking—not rewarding luck or poor scheduling.

  • FPI (ESPN’s model)
    While direct probability figures weren’t quoted in recent coverage, FPI is mentioned in earlier reporting as giving Virginia Tech around a 65–66% chance to win.

  • Dimers Simulation Model
    Simulated 10,000 hypothetical matchups and projects a 63% win probability for the Hokies, with an expected score of 28–23.

  • Picks And Parlays (Pundit Opinion)
    Bucking the trend, this analysis believes Old Dominion could pull off the upset. They predict a 27–21 win for ODU and recommend betting on ODU +275.

Predictive Models vs. Betting Lines

  • Spread (VT favored by 7.5 points): SP+ and Dimers output a projected margin close to 6–8 points, aligning with the betting line and suggesting the market accurately reflects statistical expectations.

  • Moneyline (~–300 for VT): Implied probability here (~75%) is a bit higher than simulated win probabilities, indicating sportsbooks build in vigorish (bookmaker margin) or public bias toward favorites.

  • Total Points (~50–51): Both models suggest a reasonable combined score outcome (e.g., 31–24 = 55 total; 28–23 = 51), confirming the market’s total points projection.

Summary Table

Source / ModelVT Win ProbabilityProjected Score
SP+~67%31–24 (VT)
FPI~66% (est.)—
Dimers Simulations~63%28–23 (VT)
Picks and Parlays (Pundit)—21–27 (ODU upset)
Betting Line – Moneyline~75% (implied)—
Betting Line – Spread—VT favored by 7.5
Betting Line – Over/Under—~50.5–51 total

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Old Dominion vs Virginia Tech Preview and Prediction

It’s beyond bizarre how this offense can only seem to score 3 offensive points in the first half of games. Especially when they follow that up with 24 and 21 respectively in the 2nd half of games. Weird. Pry needs to give the halftime speech pre-game. I can’t imagine Tech scoring 3 points or less in the first half for a third week in a row.

SP+ Rankings

Virginia Tech

Overall: 45th
Offense: 49th
Defense: 44th
Special Teams: 51st

Old Dominion

Overall: 103rd
Offense: 103rd
Defense: 95th
Special Teams: 79th

The big question of the week will be if QB Grant Wilson will play. He injured his wrist at the end of last week’s game. If he isn’t able to go, expect a QB without much experience to come in. I think it’s reasonable to expect the backup to play similar to Wilson, which means he can run or throw. ODU runs an offense similar to Vanderbilt’s so the Hokies will once again need to be ready for a running QB. Although Wilson has not put up big numbers on the ground so far this season. ODU has some good pass catchers and the like to spread the ball around to a lot of receivers. RB Aaron Young gets the majority of the carries but expect former Virginia Tech RB Bryce Duke to get some carries too. This is an offense that can definitely put up points against quality opponents but don’t expect them to light up the scoreboard.

Old Dominion has been impressive defensively so far this season. They held South Carolina to 288 total yards on the road and forced former Miami QB Jake Garcia into 4 interceptions in their home game against ECU. The numbers suggest that this is a bend but don’t break defense. They have given up yards but not a lot of points. It’s critical for Tech to finish drives against ODU. This appears to be a team you can run on. This is a week where Tech needs to line up and run the ball like they did in the 2nd half against Marshall. Let Drones, Tuten and Thomas get carries and move the ball down the field on the ground. No need to get cute with the passing game. RUN. THE. BALL.

I’m not going to kid myself, G5 road games are always tough. Nothing comes easy. In the 2018 game, Virginia Tech couldn’t seem to pull away and then had a defensive meltdown in the 4th quarter. In 2022, the Hokies gifted ODU 7 points off a bad snap on a field goal and four Grant Wells INTs later the Monarchs won by 3. If the Hokies can avoid the self-inflicted wounds, this is a game where Tech should win by the Vegas line of 14. But Tech has to play at least their C-level game to get there. Which means score more than 3 points in the first half and avoid the sloppiness they’ve had in the last two visits there. This is a good opportunity for Pry to show that he can get his guys ready at kickoff and not let the last two weeks’ special teams oopsies show up.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 27, Old Dominion 20

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Old Dominion Preview and Prediction

You can’t judge a team based on an early season game. In 2016, the Hokies turned the ball over five times and lost to Tennessee at the Battle at Bristol. That team went on to win the Coastal division and took Clemson to the last possession in the ACC Championship Game. Last season, the Hokies beat Florida State on the road 24-3 then went on to have their first losing season in 26 years. In short, don’t judge a season based on an early season game. Some teams get better and some teams don’t end up looking as good as they first looked. You have to let the season play out.

The Hokies have two more games to tune up before they play their next conference game against Duke. They need to use these games as an opportunity to get healthy and fix the issues we saw against Boston College. Old Dominion is the type of team the Hokies need to be able to get a comfortable victory against. The Hokies need to prove that last year’s massive upset was no more than a fluke.

The Old Dominion offense features some familiar faces. Former Virginia Tech OC Bryan Stinespring is ODU’s new tight ends coach. And former VT players Eric Kumah and Chris Cunningham are now starters for Old Dominion. Not to mention they will also be team captains for this game. If that’s not sending a message to the Hokies, I’m not sure what is.

Last year’s hero, Blake LaRussa, left football to pursue seminary school this past offseason. Jeremy Cox, the running back who ran for 130 yards against the Hokies last year is also gone. Replacing them is JUCO QB Stone Smartt and former VT recruiting target RB LaLa Davis. The player to watch on the ODU offense is former Hokie Eric Kumah. He led ODU in receiving yards last week against Norfolk State.

The ODU defense struggled against the run last year. This is a game where the Hokies run game should look to get going. Look for Keshawn King to have a big game. This defense brings back five starters from last year’s squad. This defense finished dead last in total defense in Conference USA in 2018. The Hokies need to show off some of their offensive talent and put up a lot of points. If Norfolk State can put 21 points against ODU, Virginia Tech should be able to put up a lot more.

Last year, the game at Old Dominion felt like a lot of problems revealing themselves at the same time. Up until that point, the Hokies were feeling good. That game revealed a lot of problems that the Hokies spent the rest of the year trying to work out. This time the motivation will be there to take care of business against the Monarchs. This is a game the Hokies should put away early.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 42, Old Dominion 14 

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Old Dominion Preview and Prediction

The Hokies had an unexpected bye week after Hurricane Florence cancelled their game with East Carolina. While it was disappointing to not have a game played this past weekend, it does give the Hokies some needed rest and recovery headed into two consecutive road games, a Coastal division showdown with Duke and big-time matchup with Notre Dame.

This week the Hokies travel to the 757 for the first time since 1986 to take on Old Dominion. This game gives me some concern after the Hokies have been off for two weeks, they could come out rusty after a long layoff. The game is also on the road. Road games can always be tough. And this game is leading into big games against Duke and Notre Dame. The Hokies cannot be caught looking ahead.

Old Dominion has struggled so far this season. They were blown out in week 1 on the road against Liberty. They lost in week 2 to Florida International at home. And they lost this past Thursday to Charlotte on the road. Needless to say, it’s not the type of start ODU was looking for.

Looking at this team on paper, there isn’t a lot they do well through 3 games. They have a reasonably good red zone defense and they don’t take many penalties but that might be it. They have struggled on offense, defense and special teams. Keep an eye on a kid Virginia Tech was looking at in recruiting last year, running back LaLa Davis. He has some game breaking ability in ODU’s backfield. They also have a mobile quarterback in Steven Williams. Mobile quarterbacks have given the Hokies some trouble in the past.

The Monarchs should be better on defense. This is a defense that returned four seniors on the defensive line, and seven senior starters on the defense as a whole. Keep in mind that this is a team that finished ranked 92nd in total defense last season. They return a lot of pieces from a defense that was not very good last year. The leader of the defense is Lawrence Garner, their middle linebacker who leads the team with 42 tackles so far this season. Also keep an eye out for defensive end Oshane Ximines who can be disruptive coming off the edge.

This is a game where the Hokies need to bring their 1-0 mentality. They can’t get caught looking ahead to the Duke game. Especially on the road. This needs to be a take-care-of-business game against a team that has struggled through the first three weeks of the season.  There should also be a sizable contingent of Hokies at Foreman Field. If the Hokies can bring their focus, this is a game they should be able to get past without too much trouble setting up a big division showdown with Duke.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 38, Old Dominion 10

 

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Old Dominion Preview and Prediction

The Hokies are 3-0 with a big win over a good WVU team and wins over two overmatched teams. The Hokies hope to finish a perfect non-conference schedule this week against Old Dominion.

S&P+ Rankings

Virginia Tech

Overall S&P+ ranking: 25th
Offensive S&P+ ranking: 67th
Defensive S&P+ ranking: 13th
Special Teams S&P+ ranking: 47th

Old Dominion

Overall S&P+ ranking: 100th
Offensive S&P+ ranking: 99th
Defensive S&P+ ranking: 85th
Special Teams S&P+ ranking: 88th

Why should ODU be a concern for the Hokies? First off, always worry about an in-state team with something to prove. The Hokies are the class of the state of Virginia. The Monarchs would love nothing more than to knock them off their perch. Don’t overlook a motivated in-state team. The Hokies found that out the hard way a couple of years ago against JMU.

ODU has only been an FBS team for the last 4 years. Last year, they won 10 games in Conference USA and won the Bahamas Bowl. They were a legit G5 team. This season they’ve taken a step back. ODU got blown out against the only P5 team that they have played (UNC).

In this matchup, the Hokies are going to need to focus on keeping the ODU pass rushers off of Josh Jackson. ODU leads the nation in sacks. They should present a challenge for the offensive line. One which I expect they will win considering ODU only got one sack against UNC.

ODU is in a tough spot trying to pull an upset in Lane Stadium. They have significant injuries on offense and they are starting a 17-year-old true freshman quarterback. Not to mention they have also had trouble moving the ball on the ground this season. Doesn’t sound like a recipe for success against the Hokies.

On paper, this matchup shouldn’t be close. The Hokies are statistically better almost across the board. In some cases, drastically better. ODU will be starting a young, true freshman quarterback in Lane Stadium against Bud Foster. Yikes! ODU is slightly better than ECU, so they will give the Hokies a little more resistance than the Pirates did but either way it won’t matter much. Hokies take care of business and move on to a big showdown against Clemson next week.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 52, Old Dominion 13