Tag: Vanderbilt

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Vanderbilt vs Virginia Tech Preview and Prediction

Date & Time: Saturday, September 6th, 7:30pm ET
Location: Lane Stadium, Blacksburg, Virginia
Broadcast: ACC Network (TV), Virginia Tech Sports Network (Radio)

Virginia Tech had a huge opportunity to reclaim respectability in Atlanta but instead fell on their faces in the fourth quarter. An 0-2 start would be a killer for confidence and motivation this season. This is as close to a must-win game as you can have in week 2. If Pry loses this game, it might be tough to ever get off the hot seat at Virginia Tech.

The Virginia Tech defense looked much better against South Carolina than they did last season. Were there missed tackles? Yes. Were there missed assignments? Yes. But overall the defense looked much more physical and aggressive than at almost any point in the past three seasons. They were running to the ball which was a staple under Bud Foster but hasn’t been seen much since.

The key to this game is for Kyron Drones not to let himself get outplayed by Diego Pavia. Tech’s defense is expected to do a better job of keeping Pavia contained this year but he will still be the best QB on the field on Saturday. The Hokies can’t let Diego Pavia dominate the QB matchup. In order for the Hokies to win, that matchup has to be somewhat close or win the matchup outright.

Virginia Tech has to pound the rock and set up play action. I know Phillip Montgomery likes to throw ball around but this needs to be a run-first team. The Hokies are at their best when they are running the ball and setting up play action downfield. They had some success running the ball on Sunday but will need to be better this week. Drones needs to be a bigger contributor to the rushing attack.

Virginia Tech forced zero turnovers on Sunday. The Hokies will increase their odds of winning if they can win the turnover battle. This is where they need to be in the backfield early and often to harass Diego Pavia and force him into mistakes and takeaways.

Players to Watch

QB Diego Pavia
RB Sedrick Alexander
TE Eli Stowers

Virginia Tech is 9-3 in night games in Lane Stadium since 2020. Playing in Lane at night still remains a tough task for most teams. The Hokies need to feed off that energy and build on the good things they did on Sunday. If Tech can contain Diego Pavia and force him to use his arm, they should be in good position to win. Watch to see if the Hokies are able to run the ball early in this game. If they can run to move the chains, that’s a good sign. Whether Vegas likes it or not, don’t pick against the Hokies in night games in Lane. This feels like the week that things turn for the Hokies.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 31, Vanderbilt 20

Betting Line

Spread: Virginia Tech is favored by approximately 1 point (−1 to −1.5) across multiple sportsbooks. For instance, DraftKings lists Virginia Tech at −1.5 (–110)

Over/Under (Total): The game is set at 47.5 points, a consistent number across major platforms

Moneyline: Virginia Tech is slightly favored—around –115, with Vanderbilt lined around –105 to –102

Early Line Movement: Some early reports even noted Vanderbilt may have been a 3-point underdog, though this appears to have settled closer to a 1-point margin

Model Projections

ESPN FPI (Football Power Index)

Virginia Tech Win Probability: 63.3%

This projection dropped slightly (about 3.8%) after VT’s loss in Week 1. 

Bill Connelly’s SP+

Projected Score: Vanderbilt 28, Virginia Tech 24

Win Probability: Vanderbilt favored at 59% to win according to SP+ efficiency metrics. 

Data Skrive (Fox Sports / AP)

Spread: Virginia Tech –1.5 (−108) Total (O/U): 47.5

Predicted Score: Virginia Tech 29, Vanderbilt 21

Implied Win Probability: VT ~53.5%; Vandy ~51.0% (based on moneyline). 

Dimers Simulations

Win Probability: Virginia Tech 52%; Vanderbilt 48%.

Reflects a near-even matchup with a slight edge to Tech. 

BetMGM Model

Win Probability – Tech Wins: 54.5%

Probability Tech Covers Spread (1 point): 51.3%

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Vanderbilt vs Virginia Tech Preview and Prediction

Brent Pry is out to prove that the last nine games of last season were no fluke. It’s been more than a decade since Virginia Tech went into a season with this much preseason hype. Preseason hype can be a blessing or a curse. Once the season kicks off, it doesn’t matter how many preseason accolades your team got. It’s time to prove it on the field.

SP+ Rankings

Virginia Tech

Overall: 36th
Offense: 43rd
Defense: 35th
Special Teams: 14th

Vanderbilt

Overall: 89th
Offense: 68th
Defense: 104th
Special Teams: 72nd

Vanderbilt is not very SEC-like. They usually recruit below their SEC peers and they have only won 2 SEC games in the past 3 years. Head coach Clark Lea is trying to save his job this season so he is pulling out all the stops to try and show some progress. He brought Fuente-era savior Jerry Kill from New Mexico State as a consultant as well as his QB Diego Pavia. Pavia put up impressive numbers last season against less-than-stellar competition. Although, he did have a 3 touchdown game against Auburn last season. So he has shown he can get it done against good competition. The issue for Vanderbilt is they are switching from a pass-heavy offense to a run-heavy offense under new OC Tim Beck. That’s going to be a tough transition without major personnel changes on offense. Especially with their top wide receivers transferring out in the offseason. This offense may start the season looking like a square peg in a round hole. But keep an eye on Pavia. He’s a guy who can make plays with his arm and his legs.

Vanderbilt has some talent on the defensive side of the ball. They have a couple of safeties and linebackers who will cause the Hokies issues in the run game. Early in the season, Tech needs to keep things simple for Kyron Drones and run the ball. The Hokies were at their best last season in games when they established the run. The running game opened up the passing game downfield. The Hokies should follow the same philosophy from the UVA and Tulane games last season and pound the rock. This is a game plan that should wear down the Vanderbilt defense over the course of four quarters. Those linebackers and safeties will make it tough but the Hokies need to stick to the game plan.

Opening games are tough to predict. The Hokies have the talent advantage but opening week games are almost always weird. There can be special teams snafus, missed assignments and turnovers. So if you are expecting the Hokies in midseason form, you might be disappointed. Having said that, the Hokies should go on the road and get a solid dub. They have the horses to put this one away in the fourth quarter.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 31, Vanderbilt 17