Tag: virginia

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Virginia vs Virginia Tech Preview and Prediction

Date & Time: Saturday, November 29, 2025 at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Location: Scott Stadium, Charlottesville, Va.
Series: Virginia Tech leads 62–38–5
Streaks: VT has dominated the rivalry for two decades, winning 17 of the last 18 meetings.

This rivalry is finally starting to develop some juice with Virginia having a great regular season and Virginia Tech hiring a big-time football coach. Both programs are pumping serious money into football and it looks like football in the Commonwealth is about to take off.

This game will be decided by quarterback play. On paper, UVA has the better QB in Chandler Morris. Virginia Tech has a couple of talented guys in Kyron Drones and Pop Watson but both have been inconsistent so far this year. To win, Virginia Tech is going to have to get an A-level performance out of one or both of their QBs.

Virginia has balance when they have the football. They can run it and throw it well. They have a couple of running backs with a good yard per carry average and they have a bunch of reliable targets in the passing game. This isn’t an offense that’s going to wow you but they’ve got the pieces to slowly and steadily move the ball downfield consistently.

Virginia is only giving up 21.2 points per game this year. That’s good for 37th nationally. They are a solid defense that likes to lock teams down on third down. They are 6th in the country at forcing stops on the third down. They only allow 29.7% conversion on third down. If the Hokies want to move the ball, they should look for big plays in the passing game. UVA is susceptible to giving up the big play on the backend of their defense.

These games are always weird. It’s a cliche but throw the stats out the window. Tech always plays above their weight class in this matchup and Virginia tends to make uncharacteristic mistakes in this game. A couple of things I like for Virginia Tech in this game a) UVA has played one of the weakest schedules in the ACC this year b) they are coming off a bye last week which can sometimes leads to some early rust on offense. Virginia might get off to a slow start, so Virginia Tech will have to take advantage of that. Vegas is giving UVA too much credit in this one. It ends in a one-possession game but just like the 2019 game, Virginia has the better QB and UVA wins by a touchdown.

Prediction: Virginia 28, Virginia Tech 21

📈 Betting Line & Market

  • Spread: Virginia -9.5 vs Virginia Tech +9.5
  • Total: 52.5–53.5 (most commonly 52.5 or 53)
  • Moneyline: Around UVA -360 / VT +285

📐 Advanced Analytics vs. Market

SP+ (Bill Connelly / ESPN):

  • Gives UVA a 92% win probability and a projected score of 38–16 (UVA by 22).

ESPN FPI:

  • Has UVA at 80.1% win probability, VT at 19.9%.

Compare that to the betting market:

  • Market implied UVA win chance (around -360) ≈ mid-70s %
  • Analytics (SP+, FPI) say 80–92% → they see UVA as an even bigger favorite than the line suggests.
  • Books: UVA by ~9.5
  • SP+: UVA by ~22
  • FPI: UVA by something like 10–13, depending on home-field assumption.

🧠 Big-Picture Summary

  • Market: UVA -9.5, 52.5 total, ML around -360.
  • Analytics: Strongly favor UVA (80–92% win probability, SP+ by 22).
  • Risk factors: Rivalry chaos, cold weather, UVA’s LB injury

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Virginia Hate Week Podcast with HoosFootball

This week we are joined by HoosFootball for our third annual HATE WEEK Podcast. He has been a long-time follower of UVA football. If you take a look at this website, HoosFootball.com, you’ll see a ton of great information on the history of UVA football. In addition to that, he’s a talented podcaster himself, as one of the hosts of the Message Board Geniuses podcast. Enjoy!

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2025 Preseason ACC Predictions

A preseason prediction for all 17 ACC teams heading into the 2025 college football season.

Projected ACC StandingsComments

12-0		Clemson looks like a complete team that could be 13-0 headed into the CFP

11-1		Expect Kevin Jennings to take a bit of a step back this year but the schedule almost assures a really strong season.

10-2		Color me a bit skeptical of Mario Cristobal and Miami but the schedule is there to be a CFP contender.

9-3		The Haynes and Haynes combo is not to be trifled with. Brent Key seems to have finally found a roster that can compete for an ACCCG berth.

9-3		Manny Diaz proved me wrong last year. With a good transfer QB and soft schedule, they will make noise this year.

8-4		Offense should be really good. Defense — who knows?

8-4		Dave Doeren is usually able to pull together a solid squad every year but will that defense hold up after all the transfers?

6-6		Too much talent to be as bad as last year. Will the new influx transfers this year work out for them? Hard to pick anything but middle of the road.

6-6		Solid additions through the portal but Brent Pry is still the head coach.

6-6		Pitt and Pat Narduzzi are trending toward becoming a perennial 6-6 team.

5-7		Bill Belichick is a football genius but he doesn’t block, tackle or run the ball.

5-7		They have a great RB and that’s pretty much it. However, that may be enough to win 5 games with that schedule.

4-8		Tough schedule and not enough talent. Not a great combination.

4-8		Fran Brown might get a reality check in year 2.

4-8		Soft schedule might help them out a lot but ultimately they have to show they have become a better team when they hit the field.

3-9		Cal football looks lost at the moment. At least they have the #Calgorithm.

3-9		Tough schedule. Transfer losses. Interim head coach and a new AD trying to make his mark. Looks like a bottom-out season for Stanford.
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Duke’s Mayo Bowl Preview and Prediction

Let’s look at this season in a glass half full, glass half empty perspective. If you’re looking at it half-empty, then Virginia Tech took a very talented team that only went 6-6 this year. The half-full view is that Brent Pry keeps reloading talent and producing a much more talented and deeper team than Virginia Tech has had in many years. Keep loading up on talent and eventually that will turn into a good season. The question is how much more time does Brent Pry get to do that?

Let’s get something out of the way first. This is essentially a first look at Virginia Tech’s 2025 team. Transfers have gone. NFL prospects are sitting out. We’re basically getting Virginia Tech’s second string against whatever Minnesota decides to trot out. Watch with low expectations and keep an eye on which young guys stand out for Virginia Tech.

Virginia Tech isn’t Pinstripe Bowl levels of bad. I think they will be trotting enough talent to be able to be competitive and maybe even possibly win. But I wouldn’t count on it. My guess is this game looks more like the Military Bowl last year but Tech is playing the role of Tulane. They can keep it close for most of the game with Minnesota pulling away late.

I don’t have a lot of analysis here because the teams are so different than their regular season forms but I will say I don’t like the look of our OL. Expect Pop Watson to be under duress early and often in this one. This is a game where Tech will need to scheme a lot of roll-outs, screen passes and draws against what should be an aggressive defensive line.

If I was the Hokies’ coaching staff, I’d go out and play with house money and put on a show. Trick plays galore and let the young guys have fun. I know folks who paid a lot of money to travel to Charlotte don’t want to hear that but that’s the best we’re likely to offer. Just have fun and treat it like a more fun version of the Spring Game.

This game is likely to end in a lopsided win for Minnesota. What Tech should focus on is having fun and getting tape on their young players. Bowl games have turned into glorified exhibitions (whispers: they’ve always been). Tech should max-out the fun element in a game whose outcome is a bath in mayonnaise. Don’t worry so much about the scoreboard and take heart the philosophy “f*** it, we ball.” Nothing really to lose, everything to gain. Play with house money in this one.

Prediction: Minnesota 34, Virginia Tech 17

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Virginia vs Virginia Tech Preview and Prediction

Things have really started to fall apart on Brent Pry. This season kicked off with so much promise. And now we’re finishing in only what could be considered a worst-case scenario for the season. It’s not unusual for Virginia Tech to find themselves needing a win in the last game of the season to make a bowl. What makes it so unusual this season is that the expectations were so much higher. This season can only be categorized as a massive flop. There is going to have to be a lot of soul searching going on at Merryman this offseason.

SP+ Rankings

Virginia Tech

Overall: 31st
Offense: 41st
Defense: 40th
Special Teams: 41st

Virginia

Overall: 81st
Offense: 88th
Defense: 80th
Special Teams: 66th

Virginia has a decent passing offense when they have time to throw. They are one of the worst teams in the country at protecting the quarterback. This is a game where APR and the defensive line should shine. QB Anthony Colandrea has been going through a rough stretch lately and he took 9 sacks in his last game vs SMU. If Tech can keep pressure on him, they should be able to rattle him and maybe force him into a couple of mistakes. His play early on is something to keep an eye on.

Virginia gives up a lot of yards through the air. Unfortunately for the Hokies, they will likely be playing Pop Watson who does not appear to be a seasoned passer. This may be a game where Tech needs to get creative in ways they run the football. Run the ball as many different ways as you can come up with. Virginia Tech really struggled to run the ball against Duke. This week, their best gameplan will be to establish the run early and often since the pass game doesn’t seem like it’s an option with Pop Watson behind center.

These rivalry games with Virginia are always weird. They are very difficult to predict. The uncommon becomes common in these games. All things being equal, I think Virginia Tech has more talent. However, Tech has a head coach who can’t coach his way out of a wet paper bag. So who knows what happens? I pick these games by looking at what the teams look like on paper. And on paper, it looks like a 11- point victory for the Hokies. That doesn’t mean it’ll happen though.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 28, Virginia 17

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Virginia Podcast Q&A with HoosFootball

This week we are joined by HoosFootball for our second annual HATE WEEK Q&A. He has been a long-time follower of UVA football. If you take a look at this website, HoosFootball.com, you’ll see a ton of great information on the history of UVA football. In addition to that, he’s a talented podcaster himself, as one of the hosts of the Message Board Geniuses podcast. Enjoy!

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2024 ACC Football Preseason Predictions

This week we are doing ACC preseason predictions from our favorite Hokie podcast and Twitter personalities. We have preseason picks from Twitter personality OXVT (@OX_VT), Brian Seigla (@seigs5052) from the Boundary Corner Podcast, and Pete B. (@petebvt) from the Two Deep Podcast. We are also joined by ACC contributors Casey (Clemson) and Dirty Bird (Miami) with their picks for the 2024 ACC football season.

Treadmillhorse (@treadmillhorse)OX_VT
(@OX_VT)		Brian Seigla
(@seig5052)

11-1
11-1
11-1

10-2
10-2
10-2

10-2
9-3
9-3

9-3
8-4
9-3

9-3
9-3
8-4

9-3
8-4
8-4

8-4
8-4
8-4

8-4
8-4
7-5

6-6
8-4
7-5

5-7
7-5
6-6

5-7
6-6
6-6

5-7
6-6
6-6

5-7
4-8
5-7

4-8
5-7
5-7

4-8
5-7
5-7

3-9
4-8
3-9

3-9
3-9
3-9
ACC OPOYCam Ward, MiamiPreston Stone, SMUKyron Drones, Virginia Tech
ACC DPOYBarrett Carter, ClemsonAshton Gillotte, LouisvilleBarrett Carter, Clemson
ACC CoachDave Doeren, NC StateRhett Lashlee, SMUBrent Pry, Virginia Tech
Champ GameClemson / Florida StateClemson / SMUClemson / Florida State
ChampionClemsonClemsonFlorida State
Pete B.
(@petebvt)		Casey
(@FromSluggo)		DIRTY BIRD
(@dirtyyybird)

10-2
11-1
11-1

9-3
10-2
10-2

9-3
10-2
8-4

9-3
9-3
8-4

9-3
9-3
8-4

9-3
9-3
8-4

7-5
8-4
7-5

7-5
8-4
7-5

7-5
7-5
7-5

6-6
7-5
6-6

6-6
6-6
6-6

6-6
6-6
5-7

5-7
5-7
4-8

4-8
3-9
4-8

4-8
3-9
4-8

4-8
3-9
3-9

4-8
2-10
3-9
ACC OPOYKyron Drones, Virginia TechPhil Mafah, ClemsonCam Ward, Miami
ACC DPOYFrancisco Mauigoa, MiamiAshton Gillotte, LouisvilleRueben Bain, Miami
ACC CoachBrent Pry, Virginia TechBrent Pry, Virginia TechBrent Pry, Virginia Tech
Champ GameFlorida State / Virginia TechClemson / Florida StateMiami / Virginia Tech
ChampionFlorida StateClemsonMiami

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Virginia vs Virginia Tech Preview and Prediction

Losing on Senior Day is always disappointing. The Hokies had a great chance to seal up a bowl bid at home and let it slip away. Now, Virginia Tech will need to get a win on the road in Charlottesville to become bowl eligible.

SP+ Rankings

Virginia Tech

Overall: 60th
Offense: 73rd
Defense: 54th
Special Teams: 15th

Virginia

Overall: 96th
Offense: 89th
Defense: 99th
Special Teams: 77th

Virginia’s offense is driven by true freshman QB Anthony Colandrea. He has gone over 300 yards passing and over 60 yards rushing each of the last two games. He has been UVA’s leading rusher in both those games. He also has a great receiving option in WR Malik Washington. Washington is one of the best wide receivers the Hokies will face this season. He is already over 1,300 yards receiving with 9 touchdowns. The key to stopping the ‘Hoos offense will be to stop Colandrea. Keep him bottled up in the run game and get pressure on him. He has been sacked 15 times in his last six games. Virginia is 116th in the FBS in sacks allowed. This would be a good week for APR to get back in on the sack party.

Virginia ranks 112th in rush defense. The Hokies offense is predicated on the run. This would be a good game for Virginia Tech to establish Drones and Tuten on the ground early. Both of those guys are tough to bring down in the open field. This might also be a good week to use Jaylin Lane and Xavion Turner-Bradshaw in the run game. Use that top-end speed to make the ‘Hoos have to defend sideline to sideline. The Hokies can take care of business this week by running most of the time. They should still use Kyron Drones’ arm and Dae’Quan Felton’s deep ball ability but this is a good week to keep the ball on the ground. Old school Virginia Tech smash-mouth football.

The key to this game will be who scores first and gets up early. Both of these teams play better with the lead. They both like to get up early and use the run game to control the clock and maintain possessions. Tech needs to get pressure on Anthony Colandrea and force him into mistakes. He is a much better quarterback when he can settle in and have time to throw. Like he did against Duke. When Colandrea is getting pressured, his completion percentage goes down and he is more likely to make a mistake.

My take on this game is that UVA is feeling good about their performance against Duke and Virginia Tech is not happy about their performance against NC State. I think Virginia Tech will go into this game with something to prove. This Anthony Colandrea quote will also help to add a little extra motivation for the Hokies.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 30, Virginia 21

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Virginia Podcast Q&A with HoosFootball

This week we are joined by HoosFootball for our first-ever audio Q&A. He has been a long-time follower of UVA football. If you take a look at this website, HoosFootball.com, you’ll see a ton of great information on the history of UVA football. In addition to that, he’s a talented podcaster himself, as one of the hosts of the Message Board Geniuses podcast. Enjoy!

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2023 ACC Football Preseason Predictions

This week we are doing ACC preseason predictions from our favorite Hokie podcast and Twitter personalities. We are joined by @OX_VT, @PeteBVT from the Two Deep Podcast, Brian Seigla from the Boundary Corner Podcast, Dan (@Visionary_SZN) from the Tales from the Terrordome Podcast, @DriftVT from the @VT4L Podcast and Hokie Pharmacist from Main Street Pharmacy with their picks for the 2023 ACC football season.

Treadmillhorse (@treadmillhorse)
12-0
10-2
10-2
8-4
8-4
8-4
7-5
7-5
6-6
6-6
5-7
5-7
3-9
2-10
ACC Offensive Player of the YearDrake Maye
ACC Defensive Player of the YearJeremiah Trotter Jr.
ACC Coach of the YearPat Narduzzi
ACC Title Winner
OX_VT (@OX_VT)
10-2
9-3
9-3
9-3
8-4
8-4
8-4
7-5
6-6
6-6
5-7
4-8
4-8
2-10
ACC Offensive Player of the YearBrennan Armstrong
ACC Defensive Player of the YearJeremiah Trotter Jr.
ACC Coach of the YearBrent Pry
ACC Title Winner
Pete B. (@PeteBVT)
from the Two Deep Podcast
11-1
11-1
8-4
8-4
8-4
7-5
7-5
7-5
7-5
6-6
6-6
5-7
4-8
2-10
ACC Offensive Player of the YearWill Shipley
ACC Defensive Player of the YearJared Verse
ACC Coach of the YearMike Norvell
ACC Title Winner
Brian Seigla (@Seig5052)
from the Boundary Corner Podcast
12-0
10-2
9-3
9-3
8-4
8-4
7-5
7-5
7-5
6-6
5-7
4-8
4-8
2-10

ACC Offensive Player of the YearDrake Maye
ACC Defensive Player of the YearJared Verse
ACC Coach of the YearMike Norvell
ACC Title Winner
Dan (@Visionary_SZN)
from the Tales from the TerrorDome Podcast
10-2
9-3
9-3
8-4
8-4
7-5
7-5
7-5
6-6
6-6
5-7
4-8
3-9
2-10

ACC Offensive Player of the YearBrennan Armstrong
ACC Defensive Player of the YearJared Verse
ACC Coach of the YearMike Norvell
ACC Title Winner
@DriftVT
from the @VT4L Podcast
11-1
9-3
9-3
8-4
7-5
7-5
7-5
6-6
6-6
6-6
6-6
4-8
3-9
2-10

ACC Offensive Player of the YearJordan Travis
ACC Defensive Player of the YearJeremiah Trotter Jr.
ACC Coach of the YearMario Cristobal
ACC Title Winner
Hokie Pharmacist (@HokiePharmacist) *
12-0*
12-0
10-2
9-3
9-3
9-3
8-4
8-4
7-5
5-7
5-7
4-8
4-8
0-12

ACC Offensive Player of the YearGrant Wells*
ACC Defensive Player of the YearDrake Maye*
ACC Coach of the YearDave Clawson
ACC Title Winner

* See the full Hokie Pharmacist Twitter thread here: