Tag: virginia tech

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How I Did With My Predictions This Year and ACC Final Thoughts

Here’s a link to my preseason predictions: https://treadmillhorse.com/2025/08/20/2025-virginia-tech-season-preview/

A historically bad year with my predictions, where I went 7-5 in the preseason and 8-4 with my week-to-week predictions. But I did go 6-0 with my week-to-week predictions in the second half of the season. It took me a bit to get a feel for who this team actually was. Hopefully, in the future I can predict more wins and fewer losses.

GamePreseason PredictionGame Week PredictionResult
South Carolina
Vanderbilt
Old Dominion
Wofford
at NC State
Wake Forest
at Georgia Tech
California
Louisville
at Florida State
Miami
at Virginia
Prediction Record7-58-4
Virginia Tech Game by Game Predictions

Here’s a link to my preseason ACC Predictions: https://treadmillhorse.com/2025/08/23/preseason-acc-predictions/

Final thoughts on the ACC Standings:

Final ACC Standings Comments

7-1 (10-3)		Virginia found their footing this year and looked like a legit team. Unfortunately, they couldn’t find their best game in the ACC Championship Game.

6-2 (8-4)		This is a team (like Virginia) that benefited from a soft ACC schedule. Massive disappointment the last week of the season with a chance to go to Charlotte.

6-2 (10-2)		Miami needs to stop dropping games they shouldn’t. Other than that, they represented the ACC very well in non-conference games.

6-2 (9-3)		This could’ve been a CFP team before they lost 3 of their last 4 games.

6-2 (9-3)		Overall, a pretty good year but that loss to WVU looks pretty bad in hindsight.

6-2 (8-5)		The ACC champs. Probably the most unlikely ACC champs since Wake won the league in ’06. Manny Diaz continues to impress.

6-2 (7-5)		One of the most up and down seasons in the league. At least they have a quarterback.

4-4 (7-5)		Disappointing year by Clemson’s standards but at least they won their last four games.

4-4 (7-5)		As Jekyll and Hyde as your going to find in this league.

4-4 (8-4)		Look out because Wake Forest has 2026 sleeper written all over them.

4-4 (8-4)		After a great start, collapsed down the stretch in ACC play.

3-5 (4-8)		Generally, not good but beating Cal the way they did was impressive.

2-6 (5-7)		Salvaged a season that looked like it was headed down the toilet. You have to wonder if they are going to regret not firing Mike Norvell this year.

2-6 (4-8)		Probably the biggest disappointment in the league. Year 1 of Bill Belichick was a bust.

2-6 (3-9)		Pretty bad all the way around but they may have won the coaching carousel this year.

1-7 (2-10)		Won the first game and the last game and pretty bad in between with some moral victories sprinkled in.

1-7 (3-9)		What I’ll remember are the performative post-game wind sprints and losing to Notre Dame 70-7.
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Virginia vs Virginia Tech Preview and Prediction

Date & Time: Saturday, November 29, 2025 at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Location: Scott Stadium, Charlottesville, Va.
Series: Virginia Tech leads 62–38–5
Streaks: VT has dominated the rivalry for two decades, winning 17 of the last 18 meetings.

This rivalry is finally starting to develop some juice with Virginia having a great regular season and Virginia Tech hiring a big-time football coach. Both programs are pumping serious money into football and it looks like football in the Commonwealth is about to take off.

This game will be decided by quarterback play. On paper, UVA has the better QB in Chandler Morris. Virginia Tech has a couple of talented guys in Kyron Drones and Pop Watson but both have been inconsistent so far this year. To win, Virginia Tech is going to have to get an A-level performance out of one or both of their QBs.

Virginia has balance when they have the football. They can run it and throw it well. They have a couple of running backs with a good yard per carry average and they have a bunch of reliable targets in the passing game. This isn’t an offense that’s going to wow you but they’ve got the pieces to slowly and steadily move the ball downfield consistently.

Virginia is only giving up 21.2 points per game this year. That’s good for 37th nationally. They are a solid defense that likes to lock teams down on third down. They are 6th in the country at forcing stops on the third down. They only allow 29.7% conversion on third down. If the Hokies want to move the ball, they should look for big plays in the passing game. UVA is susceptible to giving up the big play on the backend of their defense.

These games are always weird. It’s a cliche but throw the stats out the window. Tech always plays above their weight class in this matchup and Virginia tends to make uncharacteristic mistakes in this game. A couple of things I like for Virginia Tech in this game a) UVA has played one of the weakest schedules in the ACC this year b) they are coming off a bye last week which can sometimes leads to some early rust on offense. Virginia might get off to a slow start, so Virginia Tech will have to take advantage of that. Vegas is giving UVA too much credit in this one. It ends in a one-possession game but just like the 2019 game, Virginia has the better QB and UVA wins by a touchdown.

Prediction: Virginia 28, Virginia Tech 21

📈 Betting Line & Market

  • Spread: Virginia -9.5 vs Virginia Tech +9.5
  • Total: 52.5–53.5 (most commonly 52.5 or 53)
  • Moneyline: Around UVA -360 / VT +285

📐 Advanced Analytics vs. Market

SP+ (Bill Connelly / ESPN):

  • Gives UVA a 92% win probability and a projected score of 38–16 (UVA by 22).

ESPN FPI:

  • Has UVA at 80.1% win probability, VT at 19.9%.

Compare that to the betting market:

  • Market implied UVA win chance (around -360) ≈ mid-70s %
  • Analytics (SP+, FPI) say 80–92% → they see UVA as an even bigger favorite than the line suggests.
  • Books: UVA by ~9.5
  • SP+: UVA by ~22
  • FPI: UVA by something like 10–13, depending on home-field assumption.

🧠 Big-Picture Summary

  • Market: UVA -9.5, 52.5 total, ML around -360.
  • Analytics: Strongly favor UVA (80–92% win probability, SP+ by 22).
  • Risk factors: Rivalry chaos, cold weather, UVA’s LB injury

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Virginia Hate Week Podcast with HoosFootball

This week we are joined by HoosFootball for our third annual HATE WEEK Podcast. He has been a long-time follower of UVA football. If you take a look at this website, HoosFootball.com, you’ll see a ton of great information on the history of UVA football. In addition to that, he’s a talented podcaster himself, as one of the hosts of the Message Board Geniuses podcast. Enjoy!

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Miami vs Virginia Tech Preview and Prediction

Date & Time: Saturday, November 22, 2025 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Location: Lane Stadium, Blacksburg, VA
Television: ESPN (play-by-play: Bob Wischusen; analyst: Louis Riddick; sideline: Kris Budden)

Virginia Tech Hokies: 3-7 overall, 2-4 in the ACC.
Miami Hurricanes: 8-2 overall, 4-2 in the ACC.

Virginia Tech got their guy. This program feels like it just got a massive wave of positive momentum behind it. So the rest of this season feels a bit like an afterthought but it’s extremely important for the players and coaches playing for next year.

Miami’s offense is explosive, particularly throwing the ball. If Carson Beck is at his best, Miami is tough to stop. They’ve got talented receivers all over the field. This is a game where the DBs have to show up and keep Beck from lighting them up downfield. This is an offense that relies on the big play, so if the Hokies can stop the chunk plays downfield, they have a shot at slowing down this offense.

The key to this game is Miami’s defense. They are top 10 defense who can absolutely stonewall the run. Miami can be beat over the top but that would rely on Kyron Drones and his receivers making plays downfield. That has been pretty inconsistent so far this year.

This game has a not-so-fast-my-friend feel to it. It’s Virginia Tech’s Senior Day. Four of the last five matchups in this series have been decided by 7 points or less. Miami has been less-than-impressive on the road this year and this is unbelievably only their third road game of the season. I’m not ready to pick the upset but it’s closer than the experts think.

Prediction: Miami 28, Virginia Tech 21

📈 Betting Line & Market

Spread: Miami -17.5 at most books (opened ~-16.5, ticked up).
Total: 48.5 (some 49.5s in the market).

Moneyline

Miami: around -950 to -1200
Virginia Tech: around +600 to +700

That translates roughly to Miami win probability ~90–92% in betting terms.

Recent performance vs ATS:

Miami: 8–2 SU, 6–4 ATS, scoring 33.7 ppg, allowing 14.2 ppg.
Virginia Tech: 3–7 SU, 2–8 ATS, scoring 23.3 ppg, allowing 30.1 ppg.
Trend: VT is 2–9 ATS last 11; Miami 8–2 SU last 10.

Raw model score:

Miami ~32 – VT ~19 → Miami -13 to -14, Total ~50–51.

Market total: 48.5.
Model total: ~51.


Both trends and matchup history lean UNDER in this series, especially in Blacksburg (UNDER in 4 of last 5 meetings at VT).

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Florida State vs Virginia Tech Preview and Prediction

Date & Time: Saturday, November 15th, 2025 at 7:30 p.m. ET
Location: Doak-Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, Florida
Matchup: Virginia Tech (3-6 overall, 2-3 in ACC) vs. Florida State (4-5 overall, 1-5 in ACC)
Television: ACC Network

Virginia Tech has a tough 3-game stretch to close the season. Florida State on the road, 18th ranked Miami at home, then close with 14th ranked Virginia on the road. This is an opportunity to build momentum for next year and for the next head coach. A lot of guys on this year’s team may not be here next year and this is an audition for the next coaching staff who will want to see who shined on this year’s team.

The Virginia Tech offense is good when they can run the ball. Can they run and control clock against Florida State? They need to get back to the formula that worked against Cal. Run your two top RBs and get Drones going in the run game. That’s the Hokies best path to moving ball against Florida State and for the rest of the season.

Virginia Tech has done a good job against Tommy Castellanos in the past when he was at Boston College. He is one of the few dual threat QBs that the Hokies have had success against. Castellanos looks like a more accomplished passer this year but the Hokies have shown they can get stops when they get pressure. A consistent pass rush would be big to securing a win this week.

When the Hokies have played the Seminoles in the past, it’s always come down to turnovers and special teams plays. This week will be no different. The team that can win the turnover battle and/or break a big special teams play will be the one who comes away with the win this week.

Florida State has been tough to figure out. They’ve won one out of their last six games. That one game was a beatdown of a pretty good Wake Forest team. They’ve played everyone else reasonably close but haven’t been able to get on the winning end of these games. They are a talented team but haven’t quite put it all together (except for the one Wake game). Virginia Tech has a decent chance in this game but they have to play a clean game. No bad turnovers or special teams snafus. All things being equal, Florida State has enough juice to win this game at home in a night game.

Prediction: Florida State 35, Virginia Tech 20

📈 Betting Line & Market

  • Moneyline: Florida State -578 (85% implied probability of a win)
  • Spread: FSU favored by roughly 12.5 to 14 points depending on book.
  • Total (Over/Under): Around 54.5 points in several books.

📊 Market Signals & What They Suggest

  • The large spread and heavy moneyline favorite status for Florida State indicates the market views them significantly stronger. The “win probability” derived from those odds (especially model‐based predictions) puts FSU at ~80%+ chance.
  • The O/U at ~54.5 suggests moderate scoring expectation — not a low‐scoring defensive slugfest, but also not expected to be a track meet above 60+.
  • Some line movement: initial spreads around –13.5 for FSU in reporting.

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Louisville vs Virginia Tech Preview and Prediction

Date & Time: Saturday, November 1, 2025 at 3 p.m. ET
Location: Lane Stadium, Blacksburg, Virginia
Matchup: Virginia Tech (3-5 overall, 2-2 in ACC) vs. Louisville (6-1 overall, 3-1 in ACC)
Television: The CW Network

Virginia Tech continues to have a talent gap but the game against Cal showed they can still be competitive. The next step is to use that momentum to score a win over a top 25 team. Louisville is very good but they are beatable. Especially playing in Lane. This is a big opportunity for Philip Montgomery and his guys to score a big win.

The Hokies need to run the same offense they did against Cal. Run the ball as many ways as Philip Montgomery can think of. Tech’s best offensive weapons are Kyron Drones, Marcellous Hawkins and Terion Stewart running the ball. Those three options give opponents more to think about than trying to force a passing game which hasn’t worked well this season. And as we saw last week, when the run game is working it opens up opportunities in the passing game.

Louisville has an explosive offense. This will be a much tougher task than Cal last week. Hopefully the defense is starting to figure it out and will be able to get some stops. Players to watch are RB Isaac Brown and WR Chris Bell. Both of those guys are game breakers and can make big plays when they get the ball in their hands.

In order to have a shot this week, the Hokies need to win the turnover battle. Capitalizing on a short field or two would help to even up this game a bit. If the turnover battle is even, that favors Louisville which should have a significant advantage when they have the ball.

Louisville looks every bit the part of a top 25 team. They beat #2 Miami two weeks ago. This is a team that scores a lot of points. They have many different ways they can beat you. The Hokies best chance is to control the clock, limit possessions and force a turnover or two. Otherwise, on paper, it looks like Louisville has a pretty significant advantage in this game.

Prediction: Louisville 34, Virginia Tech 20

📈 Betting Line & Market

  • Odds: Louisville favored by about 10.5 points, with total expected points ~ 53.5.

Market snapshot

  • Spread/Total/Moneyline: Louisville -10.5 (≈ -420), O/U 53.5, VT +325.
  • Implied score from market: ~Louisville 32 – VT 22 (solve from spread + total)
  • Implied win probs from ML: Louisville ~80.4%, VT ~23.6%. (Derived from -420/+325 posted by FOX Sports)

Public/computer angles

  • FOX/Data Skrive model: Louisville 37–19 (Louisville -10.5, Over).
  • SP+ (Bill Connelly via SI): Projects Louisville 35–19, Cardinals by 15.3 with VT win prob 17%; O/U projection 53.5. This is ~5 points stronger on Louisville than the market.
  • OddsShark computer: Predicted 34.4–24.6 (leans Louisville -10.5; predicted sum is ~59).
  • Consensus line checkers/news: Most outlets list Louisville -10.5 / 53.5; BetMGM listed -10.5 on Tuesday.

Spread:

  • Market: LOU -10.5.
  • SP+ fair line: LOU -15.3 → ~4.8 points of value toward Louisville vs. current spread.
  • Other computers (FOX/OddsShark) sit around LOU by 12–18

Total:

  • Market: 53.5.
  • SP+: 53.5 (no edge). FOX model sum 56 (slight Over).

Moneyline:

Market implies ~80% Louisville. SP+ VT win prob ~17% → aligns with the favorite being heavy.

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California vs Virginia Tech Preview and Prediction

Date & Time: Friday, October 24, 2025 at 7:30 p.m. ET
Location: Lane Stadium, Blacksburg, Virginia.
Teams & Records:
Virginia Tech (2-5 overall, 1-2 in the ACC)
California (5-2 overall, 2-1 in the ACC)
Broadcast: ESPN

Virginia Tech has been beaten up on the injury front so far this year. They’ve had to play seven weeks straight and you could see that starting to take a toll in the last two games. Luckily, the bye week comes at the right time and it’s an opportunity to get healthy and regroup before a tough stretch to end the season.

Virginia Tech needs to ride their running backs in this game. They need Terion Stewart and Marcellous Hawkins to come up big after a bye week. Kyron Drones doesn’t need to be throwing the ball all over the field this week. Line up and run the ball as many ways as Phillip Montgomery can come up with. This needs to be a run-heavy game for the Hokies.

The Hokies defense needs to be good on third down and in the red zone. Two areas they have struggled with this year. Cal is a team that is good at slowly and methodically working the ball down the field. The Hokies need to keep those drives short or hold them to field goals in the red zone.

A fast start would be huge. Cal has never been to Lane Stadium. Enter Sandman and the early energy will be a new experience for them. The Hokies need to use that early momentum to set the tone. Racing out to an early lead would be huge for their chances this week.

Sometimes I need to look at games like I’m not a Virginia Tech fan. This week it’d be easy to say well, Cal has the better team and better record, so they’re going to win. As Lee Corso would say, not so fast my friend. I like that Virginia Tech is coming off a bye and that Cal has a short week and has to travel cross-country. That’s not easy for any team. This is what I’d call a scheduled win for Virginia Tech. Bye week and at home vs short week and cross-country travel. The talent level is close so I’ll give the nod to the rested home team.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 27, California 24

📈 Betting Line & Market

Spread: VT -4.5

Total: 49.5–50 (slight upward creep from open)

Moneyline: VT ~-185 to -205 / Cal +160 to +170

Implied win prob: VT 65–67%; Cal ~37%

SP+ (Bill Connelly, ESPN)
Ratings put Cal ~No. 75 and VT ~No. 91
Projected score: Cal 26–25 (Cal ~52% win prob). Market lists VT as the favorite, so SP+ is +5.5 points off the spread (Cal +1 vs. market VT -4.5).

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Georgia Tech vs Virginia Tech Preview and Prediction

Date/Location: Saturday, October 11th 3:30pm ET
Channel: ACC Network
Venue: Bobby Dodd Stadium, Atlanta, GA

Virginia Tech played a very sloppy game against Wake Forest. That was a winnable game that the Hokies let slip away. The margin of error is slim this year. Mental mistakes are amplified when you don’t have the offense to come back and make up for those mistakes. If the Hokies want to win games down the stretch, they need to play smart football.

Georgia Tech is 5-0 but it’s a pretty shaky 5-0. They love to play to the level of their opponents. Which is a good sign for the Hokies. This is an immensely talented offense with Haynes King at quarterback and Jamal Haynes at running back. If I was Sam Siefkis, I’d be losing sleep over finding ways to stop Haynes King running the ball. He’s a very effective runner and the Hokies have had trouble with running QBs this year.

Georgia Tech has a good but not great defense. They’ve been bend but don’t break. The Hokies should be able to move the ball in this game but they need to cash in with touchdowns in the red zone. Field goals aren’t going to cut it. The Hokies need to get Kyron Drones on the run and out of the pocket to give him the chance to make plays downfield. He can’t sit back in the pocket this week. He needs to stretch the defense with his running ability.

The Hokies need to control the line of scrimmage. They need to get after Haynes King when Georgia Tech has the ball, and they need to give Kyron Drones time to the throw when the Hokies are on offense. The Hokies did a good job of that against NC State and took a step back last week. They need to get back to owning the line of scrimmage this week. Drones is at his best when he has time to throw.

If the Hokies want to have a chance this week, they need to stop explosive passing plays downfield. The Hokies could also use a big special teams play or turnover to flip the field. Ultimately, this looks a like tough game to me. The Hokies will do a good job of stopping Jamal Haynes but I think Haynes King will run wild on the ground. The Hokies will be able to score some points but unfortunately, I think they’ll be chasing the game most of the afternoon.

Prediction: Georgia Tech 35, Virginia Tech 21

📈 Betting Line & Market

  • Georgia Tech holds a 79.8 % win projection via ESPN’s FPI model.
  • However, SP+ (Connelly) projects a more lopsided margin in Georgia Tech’s favor: Virginia Tech is given just a 15% chance to win, with a model margin ~16.3 points in favor of Georgia Tech.
  • For totals, SP+ sets the over/under at 55.5, and its pick leans under.

    Summary of implied lines (based on models & past trends):
  • Spread / margin pick: Georgia Tech by ~14–17 points
  • Total (over/under): ~55.5, lean Under
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2025 Virginia Tech Midseason Review

If I told you before the season that the Hokies would be 2-4 after week 6, you would have thought the wheels had completely come off the wagon, and they have. Brent Pry was fired after Week 3. I don’t think even the biggest Pry haters would have predicted that. While the team looks more competitive under Phillip Montgomery, they look like they have a significant talent, experience and depth gap. I’m not sure that Virginia Tech will be favored in a single game the rest of the season.

Being realistic, I don’t think that the Hokies will go 0-6. More likely, they will win 1-2 games somewhere along the line. They don’t have the talent to beat Miami or Florida State on the road. But the other games should be winnable if they play their A or B+ game. We saw against NC State what it looks like when this team plays clean football. They look competitive. If they can play like that, they’ve got a chance in most of their remaining games. It’s a matter of the team and players staying locked in and wanting to compete.

Offensive MVP: Terion Stewart

301 rushing yards with a 8.6 yards per carry average. Give this guy the rock.

Defensive MVP: Kaleb Spencer

Leads the team in tackles and is always flying to the football. Also keep an eye on Noah Chambers who has only played in two games but has made a big impact in a small sample size.

Special Teams MVP: John Love

He is 12-of-14 on his field goals this year with a long of 56. This guy will be an NFL kicker next year.

The key for the next 6 games is to stay locked in and try to compete. Even though this is a lost season, players still want to put good film out there. You have seen in the past two weeks that there are young guys who are getting opportunities and taking advantage of them. Fans might think there is nothing to play for but for these players and coaches there is still a lot on the line. Players can get transfer opportunities or opportunities under a new coaching staff. Coaches are showing what they can put out on the field for their next gig. So while it feels bad for the fans, these guys are still out there trying. I don’t see a bowl game in their future, but I also don’t see an 0-6 finish. Somehow, they will find two wins along the way and finish 4-8. After the season, the reset button gets hit on every aspect of Virginia Tech football.

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Wake Forest vs Virginia Tech Preview and Prediction

When: Saturday, October 4, 2025, 1:00 PM ET
Where: Lane Stadium, Blacksburg, VA

Virginia Tech looked good against NC State. They looked well-coached and motivated. They played a full 60-minutes that we haven’t seen against FBS competition so far this year. Everyone looked bought-in and playing hard. That’s a good sign for the rest of the season under Phillip Montgomery. It seems like he has the players locked-in again after the early season coaching change.

Will QB Robby Ashford play for Wake? He was injured late in the Georgia Tech game. His health is unknown for the game this week. Ashford’s running ability would give the Hokies trouble. Virginia Tech has had trouble stopping mobile QBs this season.

Wake likes to run the ball. Either with Ashford or RB Demond Claiborne. Both players have gobbled up a lot of yards on the ground. Virginia Tech’s ability to stop Hollywood Smothers last week may be a good indicator they are starting to improve in that area. This would be a good week to keep stuffing the run.

Donovan Greene will be playing his former team. Players facing their former teams always makes for an interesting storyline. It is worth watching to see how he gets involved in the offense this week.

Like last week, Virginia Tech needs to lean on the run game to win. Terion Stewart provided a major boost against NC State. He will need to be featured once again this week to try and take pressure off Kyron Drones and the passing game. Having a steady and reliable run game helps to open up other parts of the offense.

Wake Forest hasn’t won in Blacksburg since 1983. Virginia Tech seems to have Wake’s number at home. Virginia Tech also seems to have momentum after a two-game winning streak and winning their first road game of the season. Wake Forest is coming off a difficult overtime loss against Georgia Tech where they probably should’ve won, if not for bad ACC officiating. Virginia Tech has good mojo under Coach Monty and this short two-game winning streak has certainly helped. I feel like they are coming home for a winnable game at the right time. This team is starting to build some confidence.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 31, Wake Forest 17

📈 Betting Line & Market

  • Point spread / odds: Virginia Tech is opening as a 6.0-point favorite over Wake Forest.
  • Total / over-under: The over/under is currently pegged around 50.5
  • According to FPI, Virginia Tech has a 76.8% projected win probability.
  • Some models (e.g. SP+ / Connelly) are more conservative: SP+ gives Virginia Tech a narrow edge (26–25), with the pick leaning “over.”
  • So the market generally sees VT as a solid favorite, with a moderately high-scoring game possible.