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Virginia vs Virginia Tech Preview and Prediction

Date & Time: Saturday, November 29, 2025 at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Location: Scott Stadium, Charlottesville, Va.
Series: Virginia Tech leads 62–38–5
Streaks: VT has dominated the rivalry for two decades, winning 17 of the last 18 meetings.

This rivalry is finally starting to develop some juice with Virginia having a great regular season and Virginia Tech hiring a big-time football coach. Both programs are pumping serious money into football and it looks like football in the Commonwealth is about to take off.

This game will be decided by quarterback play. On paper, UVA has the better QB in Chandler Morris. Virginia Tech has a couple of talented guys in Kyron Drones and Pop Watson but both have been inconsistent so far this year. To win, Virginia Tech is going to have to get an A-level performance out of one or both of their QBs.

Virginia has balance when they have the football. They can run it and throw it well. They have a couple of running backs with a good yard per carry average and they have a bunch of reliable targets in the passing game. This isn’t an offense that’s going to wow you but they’ve got the pieces to slowly and steadily move the ball downfield consistently.

Virginia is only giving up 21.2 points per game this year. That’s good for 37th nationally. They are a solid defense that likes to lock teams down on third down. They are 6th in the country at forcing stops on the third down. They only allow 29.7% conversion on third down. If the Hokies want to move the ball, they should look for big plays in the passing game. UVA is susceptible to giving up the big play on the backend of their defense.

These games are always weird. It’s a cliche but throw the stats out the window. Tech always plays above their weight class in this matchup and Virginia tends to make uncharacteristic mistakes in this game. A couple of things I like for Virginia Tech in this game a) UVA has played one of the weakest schedules in the ACC this year b) they are coming off a bye last week which can sometimes leads to some early rust on offense. Virginia might get off to a slow start, so Virginia Tech will have to take advantage of that. Vegas is giving UVA too much credit in this one. It ends in a one-possession game but just like the 2019 game, Virginia has the better QB and UVA wins by a touchdown.

Prediction: Virginia 28, Virginia Tech 21

📈 Betting Line & Market

  • Spread: Virginia -9.5 vs Virginia Tech +9.5
  • Total: 52.5–53.5 (most commonly 52.5 or 53)
  • Moneyline: Around UVA -360 / VT +285

📐 Advanced Analytics vs. Market

SP+ (Bill Connelly / ESPN):

  • Gives UVA a 92% win probability and a projected score of 38–16 (UVA by 22).

ESPN FPI:

  • Has UVA at 80.1% win probability, VT at 19.9%.

Compare that to the betting market:

  • Market implied UVA win chance (around -360) ≈ mid-70s %
  • Analytics (SP+, FPI) say 80–92% → they see UVA as an even bigger favorite than the line suggests.
  • Books: UVA by ~9.5
  • SP+: UVA by ~22
  • FPI: UVA by something like 10–13, depending on home-field assumption.

🧠 Big-Picture Summary

  • Market: UVA -9.5, 52.5 total, ML around -360.
  • Analytics: Strongly favor UVA (80–92% win probability, SP+ by 22).
  • Risk factors: Rivalry chaos, cold weather, UVA’s LB injury

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Virginia Hate Week Podcast with HoosFootball

This week we are joined by HoosFootball for our third annual HATE WEEK Podcast. He has been a long-time follower of UVA football. If you take a look at this website, HoosFootball.com, you’ll see a ton of great information on the history of UVA football. In addition to that, he’s a talented podcaster himself, as one of the hosts of the Message Board Geniuses podcast. Enjoy!

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Virginia vs Virginia Tech Preview and Prediction

Things have really started to fall apart on Brent Pry. This season kicked off with so much promise. And now we’re finishing in only what could be considered a worst-case scenario for the season. It’s not unusual for Virginia Tech to find themselves needing a win in the last game of the season to make a bowl. What makes it so unusual this season is that the expectations were so much higher. This season can only be categorized as a massive flop. There is going to have to be a lot of soul searching going on at Merryman this offseason.

SP+ Rankings

Virginia Tech

Overall: 31st
Offense: 41st
Defense: 40th
Special Teams: 41st

Virginia

Overall: 81st
Offense: 88th
Defense: 80th
Special Teams: 66th

Virginia has a decent passing offense when they have time to throw. They are one of the worst teams in the country at protecting the quarterback. This is a game where APR and the defensive line should shine. QB Anthony Colandrea has been going through a rough stretch lately and he took 9 sacks in his last game vs SMU. If Tech can keep pressure on him, they should be able to rattle him and maybe force him into a couple of mistakes. His play early on is something to keep an eye on.

Virginia gives up a lot of yards through the air. Unfortunately for the Hokies, they will likely be playing Pop Watson who does not appear to be a seasoned passer. This may be a game where Tech needs to get creative in ways they run the football. Run the ball as many different ways as you can come up with. Virginia Tech really struggled to run the ball against Duke. This week, their best gameplan will be to establish the run early and often since the pass game doesn’t seem like it’s an option with Pop Watson behind center.

These rivalry games with Virginia are always weird. They are very difficult to predict. The uncommon becomes common in these games. All things being equal, I think Virginia Tech has more talent. However, Tech has a head coach who can’t coach his way out of a wet paper bag. So who knows what happens? I pick these games by looking at what the teams look like on paper. And on paper, it looks like a 11- point victory for the Hokies. That doesn’t mean it’ll happen though.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 28, Virginia 17

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Virginia Podcast Q&A with HoosFootball

This week we are joined by HoosFootball for our second annual HATE WEEK Q&A. He has been a long-time follower of UVA football. If you take a look at this website, HoosFootball.com, you’ll see a ton of great information on the history of UVA football. In addition to that, he’s a talented podcaster himself, as one of the hosts of the Message Board Geniuses podcast. Enjoy!

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Virginia vs Virginia Tech Preview and Prediction

Losing on Senior Day is always disappointing. The Hokies had a great chance to seal up a bowl bid at home and let it slip away. Now, Virginia Tech will need to get a win on the road in Charlottesville to become bowl eligible.

SP+ Rankings

Virginia Tech

Overall: 60th
Offense: 73rd
Defense: 54th
Special Teams: 15th

Virginia

Overall: 96th
Offense: 89th
Defense: 99th
Special Teams: 77th

Virginia’s offense is driven by true freshman QB Anthony Colandrea. He has gone over 300 yards passing and over 60 yards rushing each of the last two games. He has been UVA’s leading rusher in both those games. He also has a great receiving option in WR Malik Washington. Washington is one of the best wide receivers the Hokies will face this season. He is already over 1,300 yards receiving with 9 touchdowns. The key to stopping the ‘Hoos offense will be to stop Colandrea. Keep him bottled up in the run game and get pressure on him. He has been sacked 15 times in his last six games. Virginia is 116th in the FBS in sacks allowed. This would be a good week for APR to get back in on the sack party.

Virginia ranks 112th in rush defense. The Hokies offense is predicated on the run. This would be a good game for Virginia Tech to establish Drones and Tuten on the ground early. Both of those guys are tough to bring down in the open field. This might also be a good week to use Jaylin Lane and Xavion Turner-Bradshaw in the run game. Use that top-end speed to make the ‘Hoos have to defend sideline to sideline. The Hokies can take care of business this week by running most of the time. They should still use Kyron Drones’ arm and Dae’Quan Felton’s deep ball ability but this is a good week to keep the ball on the ground. Old school Virginia Tech smash-mouth football.

The key to this game will be who scores first and gets up early. Both of these teams play better with the lead. They both like to get up early and use the run game to control the clock and maintain possessions. Tech needs to get pressure on Anthony Colandrea and force him into mistakes. He is a much better quarterback when he can settle in and have time to throw. Like he did against Duke. When Colandrea is getting pressured, his completion percentage goes down and he is more likely to make a mistake.

My take on this game is that UVA is feeling good about their performance against Duke and Virginia Tech is not happy about their performance against NC State. I think Virginia Tech will go into this game with something to prove. This Anthony Colandrea quote will also help to add a little extra motivation for the Hokies.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 30, Virginia 21

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Virginia Podcast Q&A with HoosFootball

This week we are joined by HoosFootball for our first-ever audio Q&A. He has been a long-time follower of UVA football. If you take a look at this website, HoosFootball.com, you’ll see a ton of great information on the history of UVA football. In addition to that, he’s a talented podcaster himself, as one of the hosts of the Message Board Geniuses podcast. Enjoy!

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Virginia Preview and Prediction

The Hokies are going through a rough stretch. They have lost 4 straight and 4 straight home games for the first time in program history. Up next is UVA. This game has a 25-year bowl streak and a 14-year winning streak against UVA on the line. The Hokies have the talent necessary to win this game, but they are going through a crisis of confidence right now. They can’t catch a break.

Virginia Tech

Overall S&P+ Rank: 82nd
Offensive S&P+ Rank: 54th
Defensive S&P+ Rank: 89th
Special Teams S&P+ Rank: 82nd

Virginia

Overall S&P+ Rank: 44th
Offensive S&P+ Rank: 64th
Defensive S&P+ Rank: 35th
Special Teams S&P+ Rank: 87th

Virginia is a good team this season. For the first time in a couple of years. The best way to describe them is solid in all phases of the game. Their quarterback, Bryce Perkins, is a dual-threat QB that completes passes at a high percentage and can also pick up yards on the ground. This team likes to use the run to set up the pass. Perkins is averaging 6.4 yards per carry and 9 rushing touchdowns this season. Virginia’s tailback, Jordan Ellis, is averaging 4.9 yards per carry. This is a good rushing team that can also throw the ball downfield. The Hoos most talented deep threat is Olamide Zaccheaus. He is averaging 11.8 yards per catch and has 8 receiving touchdowns this season.

Virginia is very good against the pass. If you hope to move the ball against this defense, you need to get something going on the ground. This is a game where Ryan Willis and Steven Peoples will need to find some yards on the ground. They don’t need to force it but there needs to be a good mix in playcalling. Yards through the air will be hard to come by. Keep an eye out for Juan Thornhill and Bryce Hall in the secondary. The Hoos also have two talented linebackers in Zane Zandier and Chris Peace.

If the Hokies hope to win this game, they are going to need to bring some intensity which has been missing in recent weeks. A rivalry game may be what this team needs to up their level of intensity. If the Hokies can play like they did in the first half against Miami and sustain it for 60 minutes, they should be in good shape. This team needs to not worry about the streaks on the line and focus on winning one game. Have a 1-0 mentality. On paper, UVA looks like the more experienced team but rivalry games can get crazy sometimes. Especially in a series that has been as lopsided as this one. As much as the Hokies are suffering a crisis of confidence, the Hoos also haven’t beaten the Hokies in 14 years. You could say the Hokies are in the Hoos’ heads. Barring a major turnaround from the Hokies, this feels like the week a couple of streaks come to an end.

Prediction: Virginia 31, Virginia Tech 21