Category: Predictions

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Virginia vs Virginia Tech Preview and Prediction

Date & Time: Saturday, November 29, 2025 at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Location: Scott Stadium, Charlottesville, Va.
Series: Virginia Tech leads 62–38–5
Streaks: VT has dominated the rivalry for two decades, winning 17 of the last 18 meetings.

This rivalry is finally starting to develop some juice with Virginia having a great regular season and Virginia Tech hiring a big-time football coach. Both programs are pumping serious money into football and it looks like football in the Commonwealth is about to take off.

This game will be decided by quarterback play. On paper, UVA has the better QB in Chandler Morris. Virginia Tech has a couple of talented guys in Kyron Drones and Pop Watson but both have been inconsistent so far this year. To win, Virginia Tech is going to have to get an A-level performance out of one or both of their QBs.

Virginia has balance when they have the football. They can run it and throw it well. They have a couple of running backs with a good yard per carry average and they have a bunch of reliable targets in the passing game. This isn’t an offense that’s going to wow you but they’ve got the pieces to slowly and steadily move the ball downfield consistently.

Virginia is only giving up 21.2 points per game this year. That’s good for 37th nationally. They are a solid defense that likes to lock teams down on third down. They are 6th in the country at forcing stops on the third down. They only allow 29.7% conversion on third down. If the Hokies want to move the ball, they should look for big plays in the passing game. UVA is susceptible to giving up the big play on the backend of their defense.

These games are always weird. It’s a cliche but throw the stats out the window. Tech always plays above their weight class in this matchup and Virginia tends to make uncharacteristic mistakes in this game. A couple of things I like for Virginia Tech in this game a) UVA has played one of the weakest schedules in the ACC this year b) they are coming off a bye last week which can sometimes leads to some early rust on offense. Virginia might get off to a slow start, so Virginia Tech will have to take advantage of that. Vegas is giving UVA too much credit in this one. It ends in a one-possession game but just like the 2019 game, Virginia has the better QB and UVA wins by a touchdown.

Prediction: Virginia 28, Virginia Tech 21

📈 Betting Line & Market

  • Spread: Virginia -9.5 vs Virginia Tech +9.5
  • Total: 52.5–53.5 (most commonly 52.5 or 53)
  • Moneyline: Around UVA -360 / VT +285

📐 Advanced Analytics vs. Market

SP+ (Bill Connelly / ESPN):

  • Gives UVA a 92% win probability and a projected score of 38–16 (UVA by 22).

ESPN FPI:

  • Has UVA at 80.1% win probability, VT at 19.9%.

Compare that to the betting market:

  • Market implied UVA win chance (around -360) ≈ mid-70s %
  • Analytics (SP+, FPI) say 80–92% → they see UVA as an even bigger favorite than the line suggests.
  • Books: UVA by ~9.5
  • SP+: UVA by ~22
  • FPI: UVA by something like 10–13, depending on home-field assumption.

🧠 Big-Picture Summary

  • Market: UVA -9.5, 52.5 total, ML around -360.
  • Analytics: Strongly favor UVA (80–92% win probability, SP+ by 22).
  • Risk factors: Rivalry chaos, cold weather, UVA’s LB injury

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Miami vs Virginia Tech Preview and Prediction

Date & Time: Saturday, November 22, 2025 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Location: Lane Stadium, Blacksburg, VA
Television: ESPN (play-by-play: Bob Wischusen; analyst: Louis Riddick; sideline: Kris Budden)

Virginia Tech Hokies: 3-7 overall, 2-4 in the ACC.
Miami Hurricanes: 8-2 overall, 4-2 in the ACC.

Virginia Tech got their guy. This program feels like it just got a massive wave of positive momentum behind it. So the rest of this season feels a bit like an afterthought but it’s extremely important for the players and coaches playing for next year.

Miami’s offense is explosive, particularly throwing the ball. If Carson Beck is at his best, Miami is tough to stop. They’ve got talented receivers all over the field. This is a game where the DBs have to show up and keep Beck from lighting them up downfield. This is an offense that relies on the big play, so if the Hokies can stop the chunk plays downfield, they have a shot at slowing down this offense.

The key to this game is Miami’s defense. They are top 10 defense who can absolutely stonewall the run. Miami can be beat over the top but that would rely on Kyron Drones and his receivers making plays downfield. That has been pretty inconsistent so far this year.

This game has a not-so-fast-my-friend feel to it. It’s Virginia Tech’s Senior Day. Four of the last five matchups in this series have been decided by 7 points or less. Miami has been less-than-impressive on the road this year and this is unbelievably only their third road game of the season. I’m not ready to pick the upset but it’s closer than the experts think.

Prediction: Miami 28, Virginia Tech 21

📈 Betting Line & Market

Spread: Miami -17.5 at most books (opened ~-16.5, ticked up).
Total: 48.5 (some 49.5s in the market).

Moneyline

Miami: around -950 to -1200
Virginia Tech: around +600 to +700

That translates roughly to Miami win probability ~90–92% in betting terms.

Recent performance vs ATS:

Miami: 8–2 SU, 6–4 ATS, scoring 33.7 ppg, allowing 14.2 ppg.
Virginia Tech: 3–7 SU, 2–8 ATS, scoring 23.3 ppg, allowing 30.1 ppg.
Trend: VT is 2–9 ATS last 11; Miami 8–2 SU last 10.

Raw model score:

Miami ~32 – VT ~19 → Miami -13 to -14, Total ~50–51.

Market total: 48.5.
Model total: ~51.


Both trends and matchup history lean UNDER in this series, especially in Blacksburg (UNDER in 4 of last 5 meetings at VT).

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Florida State vs Virginia Tech Preview and Prediction

Date & Time: Saturday, November 15th, 2025 at 7:30 p.m. ET
Location: Doak-Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, Florida
Matchup: Virginia Tech (3-6 overall, 2-3 in ACC) vs. Florida State (4-5 overall, 1-5 in ACC)
Television: ACC Network

Virginia Tech has a tough 3-game stretch to close the season. Florida State on the road, 18th ranked Miami at home, then close with 14th ranked Virginia on the road. This is an opportunity to build momentum for next year and for the next head coach. A lot of guys on this year’s team may not be here next year and this is an audition for the next coaching staff who will want to see who shined on this year’s team.

The Virginia Tech offense is good when they can run the ball. Can they run and control clock against Florida State? They need to get back to the formula that worked against Cal. Run your two top RBs and get Drones going in the run game. That’s the Hokies best path to moving ball against Florida State and for the rest of the season.

Virginia Tech has done a good job against Tommy Castellanos in the past when he was at Boston College. He is one of the few dual threat QBs that the Hokies have had success against. Castellanos looks like a more accomplished passer this year but the Hokies have shown they can get stops when they get pressure. A consistent pass rush would be big to securing a win this week.

When the Hokies have played the Seminoles in the past, it’s always come down to turnovers and special teams plays. This week will be no different. The team that can win the turnover battle and/or break a big special teams play will be the one who comes away with the win this week.

Florida State has been tough to figure out. They’ve won one out of their last six games. That one game was a beatdown of a pretty good Wake Forest team. They’ve played everyone else reasonably close but haven’t been able to get on the winning end of these games. They are a talented team but haven’t quite put it all together (except for the one Wake game). Virginia Tech has a decent chance in this game but they have to play a clean game. No bad turnovers or special teams snafus. All things being equal, Florida State has enough juice to win this game at home in a night game.

Prediction: Florida State 35, Virginia Tech 20

📈 Betting Line & Market

  • Moneyline: Florida State -578 (85% implied probability of a win)
  • Spread: FSU favored by roughly 12.5 to 14 points depending on book.
  • Total (Over/Under): Around 54.5 points in several books.

📊 Market Signals & What They Suggest

  • The large spread and heavy moneyline favorite status for Florida State indicates the market views them significantly stronger. The “win probability” derived from those odds (especially model‐based predictions) puts FSU at ~80%+ chance.
  • The O/U at ~54.5 suggests moderate scoring expectation — not a low‐scoring defensive slugfest, but also not expected to be a track meet above 60+.
  • Some line movement: initial spreads around –13.5 for FSU in reporting.

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Louisville vs Virginia Tech Preview and Prediction

Date & Time: Saturday, November 1, 2025 at 3 p.m. ET
Location: Lane Stadium, Blacksburg, Virginia
Matchup: Virginia Tech (3-5 overall, 2-2 in ACC) vs. Louisville (6-1 overall, 3-1 in ACC)
Television: The CW Network

Virginia Tech continues to have a talent gap but the game against Cal showed they can still be competitive. The next step is to use that momentum to score a win over a top 25 team. Louisville is very good but they are beatable. Especially playing in Lane. This is a big opportunity for Philip Montgomery and his guys to score a big win.

The Hokies need to run the same offense they did against Cal. Run the ball as many ways as Philip Montgomery can think of. Tech’s best offensive weapons are Kyron Drones, Marcellous Hawkins and Terion Stewart running the ball. Those three options give opponents more to think about than trying to force a passing game which hasn’t worked well this season. And as we saw last week, when the run game is working it opens up opportunities in the passing game.

Louisville has an explosive offense. This will be a much tougher task than Cal last week. Hopefully the defense is starting to figure it out and will be able to get some stops. Players to watch are RB Isaac Brown and WR Chris Bell. Both of those guys are game breakers and can make big plays when they get the ball in their hands.

In order to have a shot this week, the Hokies need to win the turnover battle. Capitalizing on a short field or two would help to even up this game a bit. If the turnover battle is even, that favors Louisville which should have a significant advantage when they have the ball.

Louisville looks every bit the part of a top 25 team. They beat #2 Miami two weeks ago. This is a team that scores a lot of points. They have many different ways they can beat you. The Hokies best chance is to control the clock, limit possessions and force a turnover or two. Otherwise, on paper, it looks like Louisville has a pretty significant advantage in this game.

Prediction: Louisville 34, Virginia Tech 20

📈 Betting Line & Market

  • Odds: Louisville favored by about 10.5 points, with total expected points ~ 53.5.

Market snapshot

  • Spread/Total/Moneyline: Louisville -10.5 (≈ -420), O/U 53.5, VT +325.
  • Implied score from market: ~Louisville 32 – VT 22 (solve from spread + total)
  • Implied win probs from ML: Louisville ~80.4%, VT ~23.6%. (Derived from -420/+325 posted by FOX Sports)

Public/computer angles

  • FOX/Data Skrive model: Louisville 37–19 (Louisville -10.5, Over).
  • SP+ (Bill Connelly via SI): Projects Louisville 35–19, Cardinals by 15.3 with VT win prob 17%; O/U projection 53.5. This is ~5 points stronger on Louisville than the market.
  • OddsShark computer: Predicted 34.4–24.6 (leans Louisville -10.5; predicted sum is ~59).
  • Consensus line checkers/news: Most outlets list Louisville -10.5 / 53.5; BetMGM listed -10.5 on Tuesday.

Spread:

  • Market: LOU -10.5.
  • SP+ fair line: LOU -15.3 → ~4.8 points of value toward Louisville vs. current spread.
  • Other computers (FOX/OddsShark) sit around LOU by 12–18

Total:

  • Market: 53.5.
  • SP+: 53.5 (no edge). FOX model sum 56 (slight Over).

Moneyline:

Market implies ~80% Louisville. SP+ VT win prob ~17% → aligns with the favorite being heavy.

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California vs Virginia Tech Preview and Prediction

Date & Time: Friday, October 24, 2025 at 7:30 p.m. ET
Location: Lane Stadium, Blacksburg, Virginia.
Teams & Records:
Virginia Tech (2-5 overall, 1-2 in the ACC)
California (5-2 overall, 2-1 in the ACC)
Broadcast: ESPN

Virginia Tech has been beaten up on the injury front so far this year. They’ve had to play seven weeks straight and you could see that starting to take a toll in the last two games. Luckily, the bye week comes at the right time and it’s an opportunity to get healthy and regroup before a tough stretch to end the season.

Virginia Tech needs to ride their running backs in this game. They need Terion Stewart and Marcellous Hawkins to come up big after a bye week. Kyron Drones doesn’t need to be throwing the ball all over the field this week. Line up and run the ball as many ways as Phillip Montgomery can come up with. This needs to be a run-heavy game for the Hokies.

The Hokies defense needs to be good on third down and in the red zone. Two areas they have struggled with this year. Cal is a team that is good at slowly and methodically working the ball down the field. The Hokies need to keep those drives short or hold them to field goals in the red zone.

A fast start would be huge. Cal has never been to Lane Stadium. Enter Sandman and the early energy will be a new experience for them. The Hokies need to use that early momentum to set the tone. Racing out to an early lead would be huge for their chances this week.

Sometimes I need to look at games like I’m not a Virginia Tech fan. This week it’d be easy to say well, Cal has the better team and better record, so they’re going to win. As Lee Corso would say, not so fast my friend. I like that Virginia Tech is coming off a bye and that Cal has a short week and has to travel cross-country. That’s not easy for any team. This is what I’d call a scheduled win for Virginia Tech. Bye week and at home vs short week and cross-country travel. The talent level is close so I’ll give the nod to the rested home team.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 27, California 24

📈 Betting Line & Market

Spread: VT -4.5

Total: 49.5–50 (slight upward creep from open)

Moneyline: VT ~-185 to -205 / Cal +160 to +170

Implied win prob: VT 65–67%; Cal ~37%

SP+ (Bill Connelly, ESPN)
Ratings put Cal ~No. 75 and VT ~No. 91
Projected score: Cal 26–25 (Cal ~52% win prob). Market lists VT as the favorite, so SP+ is +5.5 points off the spread (Cal +1 vs. market VT -4.5).

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Georgia Tech vs Virginia Tech Preview and Prediction

Date/Location: Saturday, October 11th 3:30pm ET
Channel: ACC Network
Venue: Bobby Dodd Stadium, Atlanta, GA

Virginia Tech played a very sloppy game against Wake Forest. That was a winnable game that the Hokies let slip away. The margin of error is slim this year. Mental mistakes are amplified when you don’t have the offense to come back and make up for those mistakes. If the Hokies want to win games down the stretch, they need to play smart football.

Georgia Tech is 5-0 but it’s a pretty shaky 5-0. They love to play to the level of their opponents. Which is a good sign for the Hokies. This is an immensely talented offense with Haynes King at quarterback and Jamal Haynes at running back. If I was Sam Siefkis, I’d be losing sleep over finding ways to stop Haynes King running the ball. He’s a very effective runner and the Hokies have had trouble with running QBs this year.

Georgia Tech has a good but not great defense. They’ve been bend but don’t break. The Hokies should be able to move the ball in this game but they need to cash in with touchdowns in the red zone. Field goals aren’t going to cut it. The Hokies need to get Kyron Drones on the run and out of the pocket to give him the chance to make plays downfield. He can’t sit back in the pocket this week. He needs to stretch the defense with his running ability.

The Hokies need to control the line of scrimmage. They need to get after Haynes King when Georgia Tech has the ball, and they need to give Kyron Drones time to the throw when the Hokies are on offense. The Hokies did a good job of that against NC State and took a step back last week. They need to get back to owning the line of scrimmage this week. Drones is at his best when he has time to throw.

If the Hokies want to have a chance this week, they need to stop explosive passing plays downfield. The Hokies could also use a big special teams play or turnover to flip the field. Ultimately, this looks a like tough game to me. The Hokies will do a good job of stopping Jamal Haynes but I think Haynes King will run wild on the ground. The Hokies will be able to score some points but unfortunately, I think they’ll be chasing the game most of the afternoon.

Prediction: Georgia Tech 35, Virginia Tech 21

📈 Betting Line & Market

  • Georgia Tech holds a 79.8 % win projection via ESPN’s FPI model.
  • However, SP+ (Connelly) projects a more lopsided margin in Georgia Tech’s favor: Virginia Tech is given just a 15% chance to win, with a model margin ~16.3 points in favor of Georgia Tech.
  • For totals, SP+ sets the over/under at 55.5, and its pick leans under.

    Summary of implied lines (based on models & past trends):
  • Spread / margin pick: Georgia Tech by ~14–17 points
  • Total (over/under): ~55.5, lean Under
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Wake Forest vs Virginia Tech Preview and Prediction

When: Saturday, October 4, 2025, 1:00 PM ET
Where: Lane Stadium, Blacksburg, VA

Virginia Tech looked good against NC State. They looked well-coached and motivated. They played a full 60-minutes that we haven’t seen against FBS competition so far this year. Everyone looked bought-in and playing hard. That’s a good sign for the rest of the season under Phillip Montgomery. It seems like he has the players locked-in again after the early season coaching change.

Will QB Robby Ashford play for Wake? He was injured late in the Georgia Tech game. His health is unknown for the game this week. Ashford’s running ability would give the Hokies trouble. Virginia Tech has had trouble stopping mobile QBs this season.

Wake likes to run the ball. Either with Ashford or RB Demond Claiborne. Both players have gobbled up a lot of yards on the ground. Virginia Tech’s ability to stop Hollywood Smothers last week may be a good indicator they are starting to improve in that area. This would be a good week to keep stuffing the run.

Donovan Greene will be playing his former team. Players facing their former teams always makes for an interesting storyline. It is worth watching to see how he gets involved in the offense this week.

Like last week, Virginia Tech needs to lean on the run game to win. Terion Stewart provided a major boost against NC State. He will need to be featured once again this week to try and take pressure off Kyron Drones and the passing game. Having a steady and reliable run game helps to open up other parts of the offense.

Wake Forest hasn’t won in Blacksburg since 1983. Virginia Tech seems to have Wake’s number at home. Virginia Tech also seems to have momentum after a two-game winning streak and winning their first road game of the season. Wake Forest is coming off a difficult overtime loss against Georgia Tech where they probably should’ve won, if not for bad ACC officiating. Virginia Tech has good mojo under Coach Monty and this short two-game winning streak has certainly helped. I feel like they are coming home for a winnable game at the right time. This team is starting to build some confidence.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 31, Wake Forest 17

📈 Betting Line & Market

  • Point spread / odds: Virginia Tech is opening as a 6.0-point favorite over Wake Forest.
  • Total / over-under: The over/under is currently pegged around 50.5
  • According to FPI, Virginia Tech has a 76.8% projected win probability.
  • Some models (e.g. SP+ / Connelly) are more conservative: SP+ gives Virginia Tech a narrow edge (26–25), with the pick leaning “over.”
  • So the market generally sees VT as a solid favorite, with a moderately high-scoring game possible.

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NC State vs Virginia Tech Preview and Prediction

Date & Time: Saturday, September 27, 2025 — 7:00 PM ET
Location: Carter-Finley Stadium, Raleigh, NC
TV / Streaming: The CW (Thom Brennaman, Will Blackmon, Wes Bryant)
Odds / Line: NC State is favored by ~10.5 points
Series History: Virginia Tech holds the all-time series lead, 28–20–4, although NC State has won the last two matchups

The Hokies looked competent against Wofford. I’d maybe even go so far as to say well-coached. It’s easy to look good against an overmatched opponent. The real test is this week to see if the Hokies can look better than their first three games against a Power 4 team. It’s not easy to circle the wagons after a coaching change, especially with some players jumping ship but I want to see a strong level of effort from this team regardless of the outcome.

First, Virginia Tech will have to be able to slow down NC State’s run game. If they get dominated at the line of scrimmage like they did in the first three games, this one will be over quickly. RB Hollywood Smothers has been able to put up 500+ yards through the first four games of the season. He is a player that will be tough for the Hokies to stop unless they have done a lot of work on their run fits in the last two weeks.

On offense, the Hokies have to be able to protect Kyron Drones. As we saw on Saturday, when he has time to throw, he looks like a pretty darn good QB. He makes decisions quickly and accurately. BUT, when he’s pressured, he turns into the bad version of himself that becomes more indecisive and inaccurate. We’re at a place where our talent on the OL is what it is but hopefully Coach Monty and Matt Moore can figure out something that works to slow down NC State’s pass rush.

NC State has had trouble with turnovers and special teams lapses in the first four games. If the Hokies can capitalize on mistakes, that could help the Hokies stay in the game. The Hokies will need a couple of big plays to keep this game competitive.

Virginia Tech has looked really bad so far this year but this game is likely closer than the experts think. The Hokies have not looked good so far but they are capable of playing with most ACC teams aside from the top teams in the league. This is one where if the Wolfpark are overlooking the Hokies, it could come back to bite them. All things being equal, I like the Pack to win by around 10. This will be an entertaining game but I don’t expect the Pack to deliver a blowout like the Vandy and ODU games. Hopefully, we see a bit of a turnaround under Coach Monty.

Prediction: NC State 31, Virginia Tech 21

Betting Line & Movement

  • The current spread has NC State listed as ~-10.5 favorites.
  • The over/under (total) is sitting around 56.5 points.
  • The moneyline has NC State strongly favored (around –410) with Virginia Tech an underdog at about +320.
  • The line has moved upward from an earlier NC State spread of ~7.5 points.

So, the market is signaling confidence in a clear Wolfpack victory, and bettors have pushed the line further in NC State’s direction.

Against the Spread (ATS)

  • NC State is 2–2 ATS this season, and 2–1 as a favorite so far.
  • Virginia Tech is 0–4 ATS this year; they have not covered in any game to date.
  • NC State historically struggles ATS at home: they are 2–7 ATS in their last 9 home games.
  • Virginia Tech, conversely, has had some success against the spread historically vs NC State: they are 6–1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

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Wofford vs Virginia Tech Preview and Prediction

Date/Location: Lane Stadium, Blacksburg, VA
Kickoff: 12:00pm, Saturday, September 20th
Broadcast: ACC Network Extra / ESPN+

A coaching change was badly needed. The administration made the right decision because prolonging it was not going to do any good. A coaching change gives this team a chance at a new opportunity under a new head coach. That doesn’t always work out but this team was in need of a reset. In the last two games, it looked like they had quit on this coaching staff. That’s not acceptable no matter who is coaching. Hopefully, Coach Monty can motivate the boys to play for each other and finish the season strong.

Wofford is a team that the Hokies should be able to line up and beat in almost every matchup. Tech should have a significant size and speed advantage. With a VT offense that has struggled so far this year, if I were Coach Monty I’d line up and run the ball. Build some confidence early, then let Drones throw it after you get up by a couple of scores. I see this as a game that should be out of reach in the 2nd quarter. As we all know, it’s never that easy with the Hokies but at some point, talent has to win out. And I believe this year’s team does have the talent even though they haven’t always had the coaching so far this season.

Wofford has a decent defense for an FCS team. It’s one that will likely give the Hokies more challenges than you’d expect from an FCS team. Still the Hokies should be able to pull away pretty quickly in this one. If it’s still a low scoring or close game at halftime, that’s a major concern. The Hokies should probably have three score lead by halftime.

The Terriers have struggled to score points this year. Tech shouldn’t have much trouble stopping their attack. They have two QBs that have not been particularly accurate this year and have taken a lot of sacks. They have a pretty good ground game but still one where the Hokies DL should be able to stop.

There honestly isn’t a lot to write about for this game. Tech should be able to dominate if they show up with even a hint of motivation. The coaching change and hitting a reset on the entire program is probably enough motivation to get the guys to where they need to be. It won’t be perfect and it will be far from beautiful, but if the Hokies can focus on lining up and running the ball, they should be in good shape. Wofford doesn’t have the offense to really challenge the Hokies struggling defense. The Hokies should be able to keep Wofford off the board most of the day. This week the Hokies get off the mat and look like a competent football team against an overmatched opponent. This would be a good week to get their confidence up before ACC play.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 42, Wofford 13

Betting Line / Odds

  • Spread: Virginia Tech -40+ (projected)
  • Over/Under: ~55 points

Projected score (probability model): VT ~ 46 — Wofford ~ 9
Projected margin: ~ +38 VT
VT win probability: ~ 99.6% → Fair ML ≈ -26,000 (Wofford ≈ +2,600)

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Old Dominion vs Virginia Tech Preview and Prediction

Date & Time: Saturday, September 13th, 7:00pm ET
Location: Lane Stadium, Blacksburg, Virginia
Broadcast: ACC Network (TV), Virginia Tech Sports Network (Radio)

The Brent Pry era at Virginia Tech is over. Whether it happens this week or in three months, he is cooked. He has had many opportunities to right the ship at Virginia Tech and simply has not shown any results. I would argue he doesn’t have a single big win in his 3+ years at Tech. Expectations here have changed over the years but that simply isn’t going to cut it. That wouldn’t cut it at most schools.

Old Dominion is a solid team. They played top 25 Indiana close in the opener and then spanked NC Central last week. This isn’t a team that the Hokies can take lightly. The point spread in this indicates a one possession game, which seems likely in my mind. Virginia Tech is a more talented team but they certainly haven’t looked like one the last two weeks — particularly in 2nd half of games. Expect a rock fight this week.

Virginia Tech saw QB Colton Joseph last year when he came into the game late and only threw two passes and rushed three times. Seems like a solid passer and dual-threat runner. I don’t think he is Diego Pavia but could pose similar issues for the Hokies. He gets the ball a lot in the run game so the Hokies need to be ready to stop an option-style attack, similar to Vanderbilt’s.

The Hokies need to watch out for RB Trequan Jones who has only touched the ball a few times this year but can break huge runs. It’ll be important to keep him boxed in when he gets touches. Playing disciplined football will be key this week.

As usual, ODU likes to spread the ball out to a lot of receivers. There isn’t really one guy you can key on, which has been their game plan for a few years now. They’ve got a couple of big receivers in Ja’Cory Thomas and Tre Brown who could give the Hokies trouble on jump balls downfield.

ODU has shown that they are a team that can be run on. Indiana rushed for 309 yards on them and NC Central put up 136 yards in a blowout. If Tech wants to win, they need to be able to run the ball consistently against a team that has had trouble stopping the run the first two weeks of the season. ODU is very good in the red zone so they Hokies will need to make sure to punch the ball in when they get inside the 20. An effective running game will help with that.

ODU is a very penalty prone team. That might be something that can help out the Hokies on Saturday. This game will be close so penalties and turnovers could easily swing the outcome. Again, disciplined football would help out a lot this week.

This is a very difficult game to predict. Virginia Tech has the clear talent advantage but they have been playing awful football in the 2nd half of the first two games. If Tech can put together 60 minutes of football, they should be fine. But if the 4th quarter team from the first games shows up, all bets are off. My guess is we get something in the middle. Which still isn’t great but might be enough to squeak a win against a Sun Belt team. Expect a lot of ugly football on Saturday.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 28, Old Dominion 24

Betting Lines Overview

Over/Under (Total Points): Consensus tightly sits between 50.5 and 51 points.

Point Spread: Virginia Tech is favored by 7.5 points, with several sportsbooks offering similar spreads. Circa Sports had initially listed them as 10-point favorites, though that appears to have adjusted.

Moneyline: The Hokies are around –305, implying a win probability of roughly 75%. Old Dominion is priced around +245 to +250.

Predictive Models & Simulations

  • SP+ (Bill Connelly’s model)
    Offers a 67% win probability for Virginia Tech, with a projected final score of 31–24 in favor of the Hokies. This system adjusts for tempo and opponent quality and is designed to be forward-looking—not rewarding luck or poor scheduling.

  • FPI (ESPN’s model)
    While direct probability figures weren’t quoted in recent coverage, FPI is mentioned in earlier reporting as giving Virginia Tech around a 65–66% chance to win.

  • Dimers Simulation Model
    Simulated 10,000 hypothetical matchups and projects a 63% win probability for the Hokies, with an expected score of 28–23.

  • Picks And Parlays (Pundit Opinion)
    Bucking the trend, this analysis believes Old Dominion could pull off the upset. They predict a 27–21 win for ODU and recommend betting on ODU +275.

Predictive Models vs. Betting Lines

  • Spread (VT favored by 7.5 points): SP+ and Dimers output a projected margin close to 6–8 points, aligning with the betting line and suggesting the market accurately reflects statistical expectations.

  • Moneyline (~–300 for VT): Implied probability here (~75%) is a bit higher than simulated win probabilities, indicating sportsbooks build in vigorish (bookmaker margin) or public bias toward favorites.

  • Total Points (~50–51): Both models suggest a reasonable combined score outcome (e.g., 31–24 = 55 total; 28–23 = 51), confirming the market’s total points projection.

Summary Table

Source / ModelVT Win ProbabilityProjected Score
SP+~67%31–24 (VT)
FPI~66% (est.)—
Dimers Simulations~63%28–23 (VT)
Picks and Parlays (Pundit)—21–27 (ODU upset)
Betting Line – Moneyline~75% (implied)—
Betting Line – Spread—VT favored by 7.5
Betting Line – Over/Under—~50.5–51 total