Category: Predictions

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Independence Bowl Preview and Prediction

Frank’s last game. Frank Beamer is an institution at Virginia Tech. I think sometimes it’s easy to overlook Frank’s longevity and consistency at Virginia Tech. It’s remarkable, especially in this era of college football. 29 years. 23 straight bowl games. 7 conference championship. 5 division titles. That’s a hall of fame resume and Frank did it with as much class as anyone who has ever coached. He will be missed and today should be a celebration of what Frank has accomplished.

Now on to the game, Tulsa is one of the weakest teams to qualify for a bowl this year. The stats bear this out. Their defense is ranked 125th in the country. For your reference, there are only 128 teams in FBS. They have the 120th ranked rushing defense and 110th ranked passing defense. They allow 38.6 points per game this year. The teams that Tulsa beat on their way to 6 wins won a combined 17 games this year.

So you might be asking, any reason to be concerned going into this game? Well, Tulsa is ranked 14th in the nation in total offense and 11th in the nation in passing offense. Most of this was compiled against a very weak schedule but this team can move the ball nonetheless. Watch out for Keyarris Garrett who is Tulsa’s big playmaker at the wide receiver position. If the Hokies can’t cover him, he could have a big day.

One thing that Tulsa does well on defense is get into the backfield. They are ranked 41st in the nation in tackles for loss. The Hokies needs to stay ahead of the chains and not let themselves get into 3rd and long. That’s where Tulsa thrives on defense.

Keys to the Game for the Hokies:

  1. Stop the Run
  2. Cover Kayarris Garrett
  3. Protect Michael Brewer

Vegas says that the Hokies are the biggest favorite of the college bowl season with most outlets showing the Hokies as a 13.5 point favorite. On paper, it seems fair based on what both teams have accomplished this season.  The most comparable team to Tulsa that the Hokies have played this year is Purdue. The Hokies beat Purdue 51-24. I think the Hokies should have a big day as long as they show up ready to play. If they don’t, Tulsa’s offense is potent enough to make them pay early. Since this is Frank Beamer’s last game, I see the Hokies show up with a fire and put a 1993 Independence Bowl-style beating on the Golden Hurricane.  The Hokies should send Frank Beamer out a winner and we all get to see him on his player’s shoulders one last time.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 38, Tulsa 24

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UVA Preview and Prediction

This is a must win. Can you imagine Mike London’s team ending Frank Beamer’s last season with a loss and snapping the bowl streak? Neither can I. But realistically, it could happen.

The Hoos are a middling team, as they have been for the past decade or so. They’ve been surprisingly tough at home. They’ve taken Notre Dame, Pitt, Miami and Louisville to the final whistle. This doesn’t appear to be a UVA team that you can put away early.

On offense, UVA is effective in the passing game. They are ranked 45th in the nation in passing offense and move the ball pretty well thru the air. With a banged up Brandon Facyson, that could be something to watch for.

When VT has the football, they are going up against a defense that hasn’t been particularly impressive. By the numbers, it’s a struggling offense against a struggling defense. The Hokies will need a big day from Travon McMillian in order to move the ball consistently.

If there is one area where the Hokies should have an advantage, it is on special teams. Even though it may not seem like it, the Hokies have been very efficient on special teams this year and in a close game like this, it could play to the Hokies advantage. Watch for this particularly on punt and kick returns.

The stats show the Hokies as a slight favorite in this matchup. If you’re looking from a talent standpoint, the Hokies should have a moderate talent advantage over the Hoos. If the Hokies play as well as they did against UNC, they should win by two scores. Ultimately, I think it’ll be a close game just like last year’s game was. Whoever makes the biggest mistake or the worst mistake will lose. Hopefully, the Hokies find a way to win and make it twelve straight and send Beamer to his 23rd bowl game.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 24, UVA 17

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North Carolina Preview and Prediction

This game is a mismatch. Not much in this matchup favors the Hokies. North Carolina is firing on all cylinders and are winners of nine straight. It’s hard to see a way that the Hokies can win this game.

North Carolina is a great rushing team with an even better running quarterback. Better hope that the Hokies have somehow figured out a way to contain a running quarterback otherwise Marquise Williams could run for 200 yards. There are plenty of playmakers to worry about on the UNC offense. This group is firing on all cylinders. No one has come close to stopping them in the last two games.

The defense is beatable but will require dedication to running the football. This is not a team that you can easily beat through the air. A consistent running game will control the clock and keep the UNC offense off the field. That is a good formula to beat these guys.

If you’re looking for reasons to be hopeful, UNC has only played two true road games this season. TWO! And both of them went down to the last possession. A seven point win against Georgia Tech and a seven point win against Pitt. Since then they’ve blasted Duke at home by 35 and Miami at home by 38.

My sense is that UNC is a team that thrives at home and may be feeling a bit too good about themselves going into a difficult road game at Virginia Tech. This should be the best crowd the Hokies have seen since the Ohio State game and should be at full throat from start to finish. On paper, the Tarheels are a much better team. These games aren’t played on paper and the Hokies should have the emotional edge. I’m not picking against Frank Beamer in his last home game. Go Hokies!

Prediction: Virginia Tech 34, UNC 28

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Georgia Tech Preview and Prediction

Do it for Frank. The Hokies have a terrible habit of playing flat coming out of a bye week. I really hope this is a different type of bye week with Coach Beamer announcing his retirement 10 days ago. My hope is that we will see a team reinvigorated to win two out of the next three and get Beamer to his 23rd consecutive bowl game and see him off on a high note.

This is certainly a winnable game. This one reminds me of the game against Boston College. Georgia Tech is flawed team. This explains why they are 3-6 overall and 1-5 in conference. They have a respectable offense but not the high powered attack we’re used to from them. But certainly still enough firepower to put some points on the board. This is a team you have to outscore. If you can’t counter their scores, you could find yourself in a difficult position.

I mentioned that this a flawed team and their flaw comes on the defensive side of the ball. This was a bad defensive team to begin with and now they are missing two of their top three defensive tackles. Couple that with inexperience at the linebacker position and you find a team that struggles to stop the run. If the Hokies can stick to the run, we should see a big game from Travon McMillian. Georgia Tech has experienced and talented players in the secondary, so you want to try to run the ball against them. I think we should see the Hokies put up some points this week. They should have the matchup advantage when they have the ball.

I wish I had a read on how this team was going to react to Coach Beamer announcing his retirement. Honestly, we just don’t know. I’m sure the players were just as shocked as we all were when the announcement became known. My guess and hope is that they use it as a rallying cry. I truly feel like this team has been close to putting it all together all year. Hopefully, this is what the need to string together a couple of complete performances. Let’s see if they get off to a good start on this critical three game stretch. I’d love to see Coach Beamer get one last bowl game.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 31, Georgia Tech 24

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Boston College Preview and Prediction

If you like crisp offensive football, don’t tune in on Saturday. This one is going to be ugly. Like Wake Forest 2014 ugly. Boston College has one of the worst offenses in FBS but they also have one of the best defenses. This is going to be a game where neither offense will be able to do much and the game will be decided by field position and turnovers.

If there was ever an offense that was going to make the Virginia Tech defense look good, this is it. The BC offense lacks talent at the skill positions and there really isn’t a player that scares you.  The only player that I’d be concerned about is Jeff Smith as a running QB. The Hokies have had a ton of trouble stopping running QBs this year and you know that the BC coaches have seen enough film to know to use Smith as a weapon.

As good as the BC offense is going to make the Hokies defense look, their defense is going to lay waste to our offense. I’m concerned about Michael Brewer and his surgically repaired collarbone. The Hokies haven’t seen a defense like this since Ohio State and this defense might even be better than Ohio State’s. This is a game where the Hokies offense needs to be patient and show balance. If the Hokies get behind early and have to throw often against this aggressive defense, look out. The best you can hope for is that the defense sets up the offense with good field position and the Hokies offense can put some points on the board.

This is a difficult game to pick. Both teams need this win in a big way as they are both looking to qualify for a bowl game. I’m going to go with BC to win because I think their defense against the Hokies offense is a mismatch and should be enough to pull out the victory. It’s good that this game is on Halloween because it is going to be ugly enough to terrify any college football fan.

Prediction: Boston College 16, Virginia Tech 9

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Duke Preview and Prediction

The Hokies have to win this game if they hope to make a bowl this season. A loss would put the Hokies at 3-5 and would mean they would have to finish 3-1 in order to make a bowl. They do not want to put themselves in that position. On paper, this is a game where the Hokies are favored and if they play like they are capable of, they should win this game.

Duke’s offense is even more anemic than the Hokies’ offense. They rely on the running game and a running quarterback (uh oh). Even with the youth in the secondary, the Hokies should be able to limit the Blue Devils’ passing game. The key to this game will be limiting QB Thomas Sirks’ rushing yards and limiting the Duke RBs from getting involved in the passing game. As long as the Hokies’ defense can play disciplined defensive football in these two areas they should be able to limit Duke offensively.

In theory, the Hokies should move the ball better with Michael Brewer behind center but there are a couple of things about this matchup that concern me. Michael Brewer isn’t particularly mobile and Duke likes to show a lot of blitzes and coverages. Michael Brewer needs to be able to recognize the blitzes and get the ball out of his hands quickly. We cannot have a sack fest like we saw against Pitt.

The Hokies would be well served to lean on their running game. They need to feed the ball to Travon McMillian early and often. If he is rushing for 7+ YPC, don’t take the ball out of his hands. The Miami game would’ve gone much differently, if the coaching staff had kept giving Travon the ball.  This will help Michael Brewer and open up the play action passing game. Michael Brewer cannot be successful if he has to drop back on every down against an aggressive Duke defense.

This will be a tough challenge for the Hokies but it is a game that they can win. Let’s hope the team hasn’t packed it in. If they can play smart and disciplined football, they stand a good chance to win this game. This is a game where the defense will have to stand tall in order for the Hokies to win.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 17, Duke 10

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Miami Preview and Prediction

Who knows with either of these two teams? It’s been a long time since anyone could figure out what was going on with either of these two programs besides the fact that both have been treading water. A win on Saturday would be big towards staying in the Coastal race for both teams. The winner of this game becomes a legitimate contender in the Coastal division.

The Hokies are catching the Canes at a good time. Recent history tells us that the Canes lose a little bit of their edge after losing to FSU. It’s been like that for about the last five years. We’ll see if a beat up Miami team still has the focus and energy to show up on Saturday.

A couple of keys for the Hokies will be stopping Miami’s advanced passing game. Brad Kaaya is a very good passer having thrown for almost 1,500 yards with eight touchdowns and only one interception. VT’s young secondary will have to be up to the task of covering Miami’s group of talented and experienced wide receivers. They have the type of speed that should pose a major challenge to the Hokies inexperienced secondary.

Last year, the Canes steamrolled the Hokies on the ground. The just lined up and ran it down our throats. That’s less likely to happen this year since the Canes are starting a very young offensive line along with two running backs who while talented, are not Duke Johnson. This is a game where the Hokies can’t afford to get bad play from their linebackers. They need to be able to stop the run and make Miami have to beat the Hokies through the air.

This is not your father’s Miami defense. This is a game where the Hokies offense should be able to move the ball both on the ground and through the air. Regardless of who is playing quarterback for the Hokies, they need to look to establish the run to set up the pass. In each of their victories this season, the Hokies have been able to run the ball effectively to help out their passing attack. Let’s hope we see more carries for Travon McMillian this week. The Hokies simply need to pick a running back and stick with him like they did in the NC State game.

On paper, this game looks very even. Most Virginia Tech-Miami games are. One team is going to take a big step forward this week toward remaining in the Coastal race. The team that loses this game runs the risk of letting the division race slip away from them. I’m hoping the Hokies gained confidence from that win against NC State but I’m still worried that the speed of Miami’s wide receivers combined with inconsistent play from the VT linebackers will lead to a long day down in South Florida. Just like last week, prove me wrong, Hokies.

Prediction: Miami 34, Virginia Tech 20

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Midseason Awards

We’re halfway through the season and we’ll take some time to examine who has stood out in the first six games.

Offensive MVP

Finalists:

Travon McMillian – 7.4 YPC, 334 Rushing Yards, 1 TD
Brenden Motley – 1019 Passing Yards, 10 Passing TDs, 3 Rushing TDs
Isaiah Ford – 421 Receiving Yards, 15.0 YPC, 70.2 YPG, 6 TDs

ford_isaiahWinner: Isaiah Ford. This one was close. You could make good arguments for Brenden Motley and Travon McMillian but Isaiah Ford is playing at a first team All-ACC level. Isaiah Ford would start for any team in the ACC and he’s only a sophomore! He’s going to have a very impressive career and is going to break A LOT of Virginia Tech receiving records. He already has as many receiving touchdowns as Eddie Royal did in his entire Virginia Tech career!

Defensive MVP

Finalists:

Chuck Clark – 51 tackles, 2 TFLs, 1 Sack, 1 fumble recovered
Deon Clarke – 35 tackles, 7 TFLs, 3 Sacks, 5 QBHs
Adonis Alexander – 34 tackles, 3 INTs, 5 PD

clark_chuckWinner: Chuck Clark. This year’s defense has been very inconsistent but Chuck Clark’s versatility has kept the train from going off the tracks. He’s been an excellent tackler in the secondary as well as being a force in the run game.  Chuck Clark doesn’t get a lot of attention but he’s been a huge asset to the defense this season.

Best position coach

Finalists:

Stacy Searles
Scot Loeffler
Zohn Burden

searels_stacyWinner: Stacy Searles. Let me start off by saying I think all three of these coaches have done a fantastic job. Scot Loeffler has had to play his backup QB and you could make the argument that he’s been the 2nd best QB in the ACC in weeks 2-6. Only Deshaun Watson has better numbers than Motley. Zohn Burden hasn’t had much depth to work with but he has gotten a ton of production from Isaiah Ford and Cam Phillips. Maybe moreso than any WR combo in the Beamer era. But Stacy Searles has to win this award. This is the first time in years that the offensive line hasn’t been the Achilles heel of the offense. And while there have been some rough spots (Pitt game), overall their play has been excellent compared to recent years.

Most surprising player

Finalists:

Travon McMillian – 7.4 YPC, 334 Rushing Yards, 1 TD
Brenden Motley – 1019 Passing Yards, 10 Passing TDs, 3 Rushing TDs
Adonis Alexander – 34 tackles, 3 INTs, 5 PD

motley_brendenWinner: Brenden Motley. When Michael Brewer went down in the Ohio State game there was a sense of dread in the air. There was a feeling that the season went down along with Michael Brewer’s collarbone. Little did we know that Brenden Motley was going to be ready to rock from the Furman game on. With the defense struggling, these first six games could’ve gone a lot worse without Brenden Motley stepping up to the challenge.

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NC State Preview and Prediction

The Hokies have been a disappointment so far. There is far too much talent on this team to be a sub .500 team. That’s even without the services of Michael Brewer and Kendall Fuller. The Pitt game was just embarrassing. We got Stanford’d… BY PITT! They just dominated line play on both sides of the ball. It was not a banner day for Virginia Tech football.

Now let’s get down to some realities about Virginia Tech football. This simply is not a good team right now. This team resembles Mike London’s Hoos more than they resemble the Hokies that we all know and love. The Hokies are 1-7 in their last 8 home games against Power 5 competition and that one win was against UVA. They aren’t exactly a powerhouse program right now and it required a 4th quarter comeback to pull off that victory.

I’m really struggling with whether this is just a bad team or if this is a team that is struggling through some injuries and youth and will come around as the season progresses. I’m honestly not sure but the signs don’t look good. I’m hoping that Michael Brewer can inject some life into a team that is struggling right now.

Well, time to move on to NC State. Jacoby Brissett is solid QB with good mobility. As we found out the last few weeks, the Hokies seem completely unable to stop a mobile QB. I don’t know what it’s going to take to change that.  Brissett only has 39 rushing yards for the season. I wouldn’t be surprised if he matched that on their first drive. Let’s hope the Hokies have found the lunch pail since last Saturday.

Let’s hope that Michael Brewer starts Friday night. The film is out on Brenden Motley and if the Pitt game is any indication, it appears like the offense is pretty limited with him at the helm. NC State has the type of secondary that Michael Brewer will be able to move the ball against if he can get better protection from the offensive line. This is the type of game where the Hokies need to put the ball in the hands of their playmakers and let them make plays. Isaiah Ford, Bucky Hodges and Ryan Malleck should be able to win a lot of matchups in this game, if the QB can get them the ball.

I have the same record as the Hokies in picking games this year. I’m going to start picking against the Hokies until they show me that they’re not a bottom feeder ACC team. I would used to say that a night game at Lane Stadium is a cure for what ails you. Now I’m not so sure. Here’s to hoping that Michael Brewer injects some life in the offense and that the defense has found the lunch pail. If not, it’s probably another week of one possession loss misery.

Prediction: NC State 24, Virginia Tech 17

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Pitt Preview and Prediction

Virginia Tech is a .500 team. It’s been that way for the last three years and not much has changed. The loss of Kendall Fuller and Michael Brewer means that this year’s team will more than likely to be a .500 team again this year. From here on out, the Hokies need to win their home games and try to steal a win or two on the road. 

These teams are very closely matched. Neither team is really exceptional on offense or defense. They both clearly have their flaws on both sides of the ball. When you combine that with sloppy conditions on Saturday, you can’t really be sure what you’re going to get from either team. This is going to be an ugly game.

I hope this week Bud has spent some time working with the defense on how to contain a running QB. There’s a good chance we see Chad Voytik this week. Remember, he’s the guy who ran for 116 yards against the Hokies last year. 

The Hokies are a much better team than what they showed last week, injuries and all. Count me as thinking that the penalties will get cleaned up and we will see improved play from the secondary and linebackers in the coming weeks. There is talent there, but everyone has yet to put it all together. I’m going with the Hokies in a close game. They’re two evenly matched teams. I’ll go with the home team.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 23 Pittsburgh 20

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