Category: Predictions

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How did I do with my predictions this year?

Virginia Tech Preseason Picks

On Twitter, I like to keep receipts and tell people how bad their preseason picks were but I also do the same for myself. I like to claim that “I know ball” so I keep the receipts to prove it.

I did pretty well overall and I stuck to my guns on my preseason picks. If you want to read my preseason preview, you can read it here. I had Tech going 6-6 and they went 6-6. So I feel good about that. How they got there was not exactly how I expected.

I didn’t have Tech losing to Purdue but I did have Tech losing to Pitt. Those outcomes ended up flipping and trading a loss in one game for a win in another. I didn’t feel good about Virginia Tech’s chances going out on the road in non-conference play. I felt like it was too early for them to have success on the road so early in the season. I didn’t feel like Rutgers and Marshall were world-beaters but I thought they were good enough to win those games.

Florida State and Louisville were obvious to me that those would be tough to win. I felt good about the Wake and Syracuse games. Those are teams we should be able to beat at home. BC was a tough one for me. We always seem to struggle up there. This year was totally different. We made a big-time statement on the road. With NC State, I didn’t really know what to expect. For most of the year they underperformed but they turned it on late. Lucky for us we played them late (ha!). And with Virginia, until they prove they can beat us consistently. I’m picking Tech.

GamePreseason PredictionGame Week PredictionOutcome
Old Dominion
Purdue
at Rutgers
at Marshall
Pitt
at Florida State
Wake Forest
Syracuse
at Louisville
at Boston College
NC State
at Virginia
8-4 on Preseason Picks9-3 on Game Week Picks
Virginia Tech Game by Game Predictions

ACC Preseason Picks

View my picks and my panel of Twitter experts picks here.

Preseason Picks Preseason Record Actual ACC StandingsActual RecordTreadmillhorse Commentary
12-012-0
(8-0)		I thought FSU would be good but not this good.
10-210-2
(7-1)		I thought Louisville would be kinda mid, they turned out to be really good.
10-29-3
(6-2)		NC State came on late and had a good year, I thought they would be this good in the preseason.
8-46-6
(5-3)		Big surprise. I thought Brent Key was going to be done after this year. Turned it around big-time.
8-46-6
(5-3)		Exactly where I expected them record-wise but they won one more ACC game than I thought they would.
8-48-4
(4-4)		Biggest disappointment in the ACC. Dabo is in trouble. He needs to turn this around quick.
7-58-4
(4-4)		Exactly as good as I thought they would be.
7-57-5
(4-4)		I thought they would flop this season. Now Mike Elko is the head coach at Texas A&M.
6-67-5
(3-5)		I thought they’d be a little better but only a little.
6-66-6
(3-5)		Always a solid team. I feel like BC goes 6-6 every year.
5-76-6
(2-6)		I’m not sure they have a higher ceiling than this. They might find out Dino was maxing out the potential here.
5-73-9
(2-6)		They get the silver medal for disappointment this season. Yikes. What is going on with this program?
3-93-9
(2-6)		I had them going 2-10 and they went 3-9. They had a couple of nice wins over UNC and Duke. I wouldn’t have expected that.
2-104-8
(1-7)		Dumpster fire. Maybe Dave Clawson can’t actually coach.
* The order of finish is based on the ACC Standings, not Overall Record
ACC Offensive Player of the YearDrake MayeDrake Maye had the most yards but you gotta give the nod to Jordan Travis here.
ACC Defensive Player of the YearJeremiah Trotter Jr. There was no better defensive player than Payton Wilson this year.
ACC Coach of the YearPat Narduzzi This pick is just comical now. I think Jeff Brohm deserves the award this year.
ACC Title Winner Tune in Saturday.
ACC Awards and Title Game Winner
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Virginia vs Virginia Tech Preview and Prediction

Losing on Senior Day is always disappointing. The Hokies had a great chance to seal up a bowl bid at home and let it slip away. Now, Virginia Tech will need to get a win on the road in Charlottesville to become bowl eligible.

SP+ Rankings

Virginia Tech

Overall: 60th
Offense: 73rd
Defense: 54th
Special Teams: 15th

Virginia

Overall: 96th
Offense: 89th
Defense: 99th
Special Teams: 77th

Virginia’s offense is driven by true freshman QB Anthony Colandrea. He has gone over 300 yards passing and over 60 yards rushing each of the last two games. He has been UVA’s leading rusher in both those games. He also has a great receiving option in WR Malik Washington. Washington is one of the best wide receivers the Hokies will face this season. He is already over 1,300 yards receiving with 9 touchdowns. The key to stopping the ‘Hoos offense will be to stop Colandrea. Keep him bottled up in the run game and get pressure on him. He has been sacked 15 times in his last six games. Virginia is 116th in the FBS in sacks allowed. This would be a good week for APR to get back in on the sack party.

Virginia ranks 112th in rush defense. The Hokies offense is predicated on the run. This would be a good game for Virginia Tech to establish Drones and Tuten on the ground early. Both of those guys are tough to bring down in the open field. This might also be a good week to use Jaylin Lane and Xavion Turner-Bradshaw in the run game. Use that top-end speed to make the ‘Hoos have to defend sideline to sideline. The Hokies can take care of business this week by running most of the time. They should still use Kyron Drones’ arm and Dae’Quan Felton’s deep ball ability but this is a good week to keep the ball on the ground. Old school Virginia Tech smash-mouth football.

The key to this game will be who scores first and gets up early. Both of these teams play better with the lead. They both like to get up early and use the run game to control the clock and maintain possessions. Tech needs to get pressure on Anthony Colandrea and force him into mistakes. He is a much better quarterback when he can settle in and have time to throw. Like he did against Duke. When Colandrea is getting pressured, his completion percentage goes down and he is more likely to make a mistake.

My take on this game is that UVA is feeling good about their performance against Duke and Virginia Tech is not happy about their performance against NC State. I think Virginia Tech will go into this game with something to prove. This Anthony Colandrea quote will also help to add a little extra motivation for the Hokies.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 30, Virginia 21

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NC State vs Virginia Tech Preview and Prediction

Virginia Tech needed a strong road performance. That performance against Boston College was about as good as you could ask for. The Hokies appear to be hitting their stride right now. They need one win in the next two games to be bowl eligible. Getting a win at home on Senior Day would be the best way to get there.

SP+ Rankings

Virginia Tech

Overall: 62nd
Offense: 71st
Defense: 43rd
Special Teams: 15th

NC State

Overall: 42nd 
Offense: 75th
Defense: 16th
Special Teams: 17th

The NC State offense has had some real struggles this season. This offense reminds me of Virginia Tech’s offense last season. Brennan Armstrong, former UVA QB, has given the NC State offense a bit of a boost since MJ Morris decided to redshirt for the rest of the season. Brennan Armstrong is the type of QB that usually gives the Hokies trouble. He’s an accurate QB, completing nearly 60% of his passes, and is also a run threat. The Hokies will have to be focused on bottling him up the same way they did Thomas Castellanos last week. The NC State running backs don’t really scare me but they need to be accounted for in a run-first offense. Tech should make Armstrong have to throw the ball since he’s been known to throw an interception or two. This offense looks a lot like Syracuse and Boston College’s offenses.

The NC State defense is just as good as Florida State and Louisville’s. If NC State is going to win, it’s going to be with the old BeamerBall formula. Play good defense and run the ball. This is a defense that is capable of putting Virginia Tech behind the chains and make it difficult to convert first downs. The Hokies need to run their offense, which is run first to set up the pass. I like what they did against Boston College using Tuten as a lead blocker for Drones. That has the potential to work against the NC State defense. The Hokies will win if they can hit on a couple of deep balls down the field. The passing game is where you have a shot to hit on some big plays against this defense.

Virginia Tech has not played well against defenses of this caliber. They scored 17 points against Florida State and 3 points against Louisville. However, both of those games were on the road. Virginia Tech can have more success at home. The Hokies are averaging over 30 points per game at home this season. I’m not expecting them to score over 30 this week but they should score more than 17 like they did against Florida State. To win, Tech will need to find some big plays in the pass game or via a turnover or a special teams play. NC State isn’t going to give them a lot on the ground so they are going to have to find another way.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 27, NC State 20

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Boston College vs Virginia Tech Preview and Prediction

That game against Louisville was a BEATDOWN. The Hokies were outclassed on offense, defense and special teams. It’s disappointing to have a no-show in such a big game but the goal for this season was always to make a bowl game. And that’s what the Hokies should focus on in these next three games.

SP+ Rankings

Virginia Tech

Overall: 66th
Offense: 88th
Defense: 43rd
Special Teams: 17th

Boston College

Overall: 78th
Offense: 78th
Defense: 64th
Special Teams: 93rd


The key to stopping Boston College is to stop their run game. This year they are nearly a lock to rush for 200 yards every time out. They have a two-man offense with Thomas Castellanos and Kye Robichaux. The Hokies need to sellout to stop the run in this game. They should consider mixing in run blitzes to get the BC offense off-schedule. This is a game where if you get beat through the air, so be it. But don’t let them beat you on the ground.

The formula for Virginia Tech on offense is the same as Boston College. Tech needs to run the ball. This needs to be the Drones-Tuten show. Keep running read option and make the BC defense stop it. The goal needs to be to show a lot of motion and misdirection to keep the defense from keying in on one rusher. It may be a good idea to get Jaylin Lane involved in a couple of jet sweeps or reverses too.

What worries me most about this game is BC’s ability to get yards on the ground, no matter who they are playing. Virginia Tech has to show up ready to fill gaps in the run game and shut that down. If Tech plays like they have in the rest of their road games this season, it’s going to be a long day. They need to show that their run stopping abilities can travel on the road with them. A noon start at BC also has snoozer written all over it. The Hokies need to BYOE (bring your own energy) and be ready to play from the opening whistle. I’m going to go with Tech in this game. They can play better than they did against Louisville and it sounds like BC’s top two rushers might be a little banged up going into this game.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 27, Boston College 24

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Louisville vs Virginia Tech Preview and Prediction

This is the best that Virginia Tech football has looked in a couple of years. The offense, defense and special teams all appear to be getting the job done right now. The last three wins have not come against great competition but it has been an opportunity for the Hokies to build some confidence. They looked like a very confident team on Thursday against Syracuse.

SP+ Rankings

Virginia Tech

Overall: 59th
Offense: 80th
Defense: 37th
Special Teams: 22nd

Louisville

Overall: 24th
Offense: 32nd
Defense: 19th
Special Teams: 41st


Louisville’s offense is predicated on the run. They lean on star RB Jawhar Jordan to do the heavy lifting. The one game where he went out early is the only game they have lost this season. Virginia Tech should focus on bottling up Jordan and make QB Jack Plummer beat them with his arm. This should be a good test for the Virginia Tech defense that has had trouble stopping the run against talented running backs this season.

Louisville is top-10 in the nation at stopping the run. If the Hokies hope to move the ball against this defense, it will have to be through the air. This is a game where Tech will need Jaylin Lane and Da’Quan Felton to show up huge in the passing game. Louisville is not going to let Tech’s running game have a day like they did against Syracuse.

Louisville is an extremely well-coached team. This team has done an exceptional job of handling their business this year. They have talent, they are well-coached and have a good gameplan each week. On paper, Louisville should be the clear #2 team in the ACC right now behind Florida State. Virginia Tech has a chance in this game. They need to come in an play their best game of the season. They need a clean game defensively where they do not give up big runs to Jawhar Jordan. And they need to be turnover-free on offense. Based on how Tech has been playing recently, I think they can keep this a competitive game but Louisville is clearly one step ahead of where the Hokies are right now.

Prediction: Louisville 33, Virginia Tech 23

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Syracuse vs Virginia Tech Preview and Prediction

For the first time in the Brent Pry era, Virginia Tech appears to be playing good football. The Hokies thoroughly handled Wake Forest before going into their bye week. The big concern now is how will the Hokies show up post-bye week. Will they look rusty? Or will they be able to maintain the momentum they had prior to the week off?

SP+ Rankings

Virginia Tech

Overall: 66th
Offense: 86th
Defense: 39th
Special Teams: 36th

Syracuse

Overall: 48th
Offense: 67th
Defense: 40th
Special Teams: 65th


Syracuse is pretty solid all around on offense. Jason Beck, former UVA QB coach under Bronco Mendenhall, remains at Syracuse and he has done a good job with QB Garrett Shrader. They like to balance the run with the pass and lean on Shrader and RB LeQuint Allen to get yards on the ground. Allen is a capable runner but thus far this season has not been a home run threat. The longest run that Syracuse has this season is 39 yards. The Hokies need to focus on bottling up those two in the run game and make Garrett Shrader beat them with his arm.

Syracuse’s big weakness on defense is defending the pass. They rank 111th in the country in passing yard allowed. This week, Kyron Drones needs to show that he is more than just a runner. After throwing for over 300 yards against Wake Forest, Drones needs to show he can do it again. While the Syracuse run defense isn’t great, the pass game is where the Hokies will want to attack them. Once again, the Hokies need to set up the pass game with an effective run game behind Drones and Tuten.

This matchup does not scare me, particularly at home. I’m more worried about the Hokies getting off to a slow start after the bye week. This is the type of game where a slow start could doom Tech. The formula for this game needs to be for the defense to feed off a great atmosphere to get off to a good start until the offense can get into a rhythm. This would be a good week to get the pass catching weapons involved like Jaylin Lane, Dae’Quan Felton and Stephen Gosnell. This looks like a close game but I like the Hokies at home on Thursday night.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 31, Syracuse 24

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Wake Forest vs Virginia Tech Preview and Prediction

As soon as the Hokies fix one problem, another one pops up. This time it’s inability to stop the run. Luckily, the Hokies’ offense seems to have found its rhythm. They were able to keep up with Florida State for three quarters. The run defense, however, is a different story. Tech continues to get gashed on the ground. This is an area the coaches will have to get fixed in the second half of the season.

SP+ Rankings

Virginia Tech

Overall: 76th
Offense: 96th
Defense: 51st
Special Teams: 44th

Wake Forest

Overall: 51st
Offense: 55th
Defense: 53rd
Special Teams: 73rd


This is a standard Wake Forest offense under Dave Clawson. Good but not great. They are balanced and move the ball consistently. Their offense has stalled out a bit in the last two games against Georgia Tech and Clemson. Tech’s big concern needs to be stopping RB Demond Claiborne. Like all the running backs the Hokies have seen this year, he has the potential to break a big run. QB Mitch Griffis has been okay. He connects on a high percentage of his passes but he is a checkdown king. He likes to keep his throws within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. This might be a good week for the Hokies DBs to be a little more aggressive against short throws and checkdowns.

The Wake Forest defense has been pretty good. They are top 40 in the nation in total defense. The good news for the Hokies is they tend to give up more yards on the ground than through the air. This would be a good game for Kyron Drones, Bhayshul Tuten and Malachi Thomas to get going on the ground. The same playbook that has worked against Pitt and three quarters against FSU needs to be the go-to in this game.

This is a pretty good matchup for the Hokies. My biggest concern is that Wake is an extremely well-coached team and they don’t beat themselves. Tech has the horses on offense to win but they need to rely on the defense to not give up big running plays. On a neutral site, Wake would win by 3. But I’m going to give the nod to the Hokies at home here and pick Tech by 3.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 23, Wake Forest 20

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Florida State vs Virginia Tech Preview and Prediction

It was great to see Virginia Tech get back to playing what resembled Virginia Tech football. What has been holding the team back this season is the inability to run and stop the run. On Saturday, they were able to do both and get a big win at home. To push for a bowl game this season, they will need to replicate that success in the coming weeks. They did it against a good Pitt defense but upcoming weeks may provide a tougher challenge.

SP+ Rankings

Virginia Tech

Overall: 72nd
Offense: 92nd
Defense: 42nd
Special Teams: 46th

Florida State

Overall: 18th
Offense: 15th
Defense: 25th
Special Teams: 15th


Florida State has a good but not great offense. The key to their offense is Jordan Travis and the passing game. This is actually a decent matchup for VT who has been good against the pass this season. Look for Florida State to try to take advantage of Virginia Tech’s leaky run game. If Tech can hold their own against FSU’s run game, it is going to be much tougher for the ‘Noles to move the ball in this game. Tech needs to key-in on Keon Coleman in the pass game and Trey Benson in the run game.

Florida State is not as good as you would expect defensively. Statistically, Virginia Tech has a better defense. FSU has played stronger competition to this point but if I were a Florida State fan, I’d worry about their ability to stop the pass. While Virginia Tech does not have a strong passing attack, Kyron Drones has shown enough now to be dangerous. Especially if Jaylin Lane is back to 100% healthy and Quan Felton can be a consistent deep threat. The challenge that Tech will have will be keeping the ground game going long enough to keep FSU honest on defense.

I like this game on paper a lot more than I thought I would. Florida State’s strengths actually matchup pretty well against Virginia Tech’s. It’s not as horrible a matchup as I thought it would be. The Hokies have the schedule helping them a bit in this one too. While Florida State is coming off a bye and should be healthy, it’s easy to let your guard down when it’s your first home game in a month. Not to mention, I don’t like byes this early in the season. Rust becomes a factor for teams who rely on the passing game. I could be wrong but this seems like it could be a competitive game. Florida State definitely has more talent but Tech has enough going for them right now to give them a game. FSU’s talent advantage will eventually wear down the Hokies but this game looks more like the ‘Noles game with BC where it came down to the 4th quarter.

Prediction: Florida State 35, Virginia Tech 20

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Pittsburgh vs Virginia Tech Preview and Prediction

This team does good things in stretches but not consistently enough. The offense is good for 2-3 good drives per game. And the defense is generally good aside from a couple of big plays per game. Consistency is what this team needs to find. Until then, unfortunately, it’s going to be difficult to win football games.

Good drives defensively against Marshall

Good drives offensively against Marshall

SP+ Rankings

Virginia Tech

Overall: 80th
Offense: 97th
Defense: 54th
Special Teams: 51st

Pittsburgh

Overall: 53rd
Offense: 62nd
Defense: 46th
Special Teams: 86th


Pitt is struggling offensively. They are having the same type of offensive season as Virginia Tech. It’s been difficult for Pitt to run or pass this season. The good news for them is that Virginia Tech has one of the worst run defenses in the country. If Pitt just keeps the ball on the ground and feeds Rodney Hammond, he should have a big day. Expect big numbers from him on Saturday.

As usual, Pitt is an excellent defensive team. This is the big matchup problem on Saturday, Pitt’s defense going up against VT’s offense. Pitt does not give up many yards through the air, so Tech will have to keep the ball on the ground. Once again, they will need to get creative with their play calling to create space in the run game. The Hokies should consider misdirection and option plays to slow down the Pitt defense. Draw plays and inside runs will not cut it this week against this stout defense.

I don’t like the matchup of Pitt’s defense vs Virginia Tech’s offense. That seems like a huge mismatch. Tech has had trouble getting yards on the ground the past 3 weeks and this is will be an even bigger challenge. My guess is that the Pitt offense won’t have to do a lot on Saturday. The Pitt defense will deliver short fields and as long as Pitt can keep the ball on the ground, they should find some yards and points. Don’t expect a lot of yards from quarterback Phil Jurkovec, but Rodney Hammond will have a big day and deliver a win for the Panthers. I see this game going like the Rutgers game, close early with Pitt pulling away in the 2nd half.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 31, Virginia Tech 17

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Marshall vs Virginia Tech Preview and Prediction

There was some good from the Rutgers game and a lot of bad. The good? Tech found a quarterback in Kyron Drones that fits this offense. This offense needs to go back to what worked in 2016 with Jerod Evans — one read and go. That’s what I saw with Drones last week. We need to keep it simple. I’ve also spotted a pattern with this team:

SP+ Rankings

Virginia Tech

Overall: 78th
Offense: 92nd
Defense: 60th
Special Teams: 51st

Marshall

Overall: 72nd
Offense: 93rd
Defense: 38th
Special Teams: 94th


Marshall has a balanced offense. If Tech wants to win this week, they need to limit the big runs that have plagued them the past two weeks. Marshall has a talented running back in Rasheen Ali who can break a big play. The Hokies have to play their assignments and not lose contain on the running back. Tech needs to focus their attention on the run and make Marshall beat them through the air.

Marshall has a good secondary. If you’re going to beat them, you have to do it on the ground. This is where Kyron Drones needs to be able to gobble up yards on the ground to open the game up for the rest of the offense. This would be a good week to incorporate more option looks. This needs to be the Drones-Tuten show. This shouldn’t be the week the Hokies air it out all over the field.

Marshall is coming off an early bye week. I actually don’t like teams taking a bye week this early in the season. It usually causes more issues than it fixes. I’d expect Marshall to get off to a bit of slow start. The Hokies need to take advantage and work quick to get points on the board. They also need to make sure to put a couple of drives together to keep their defense from wearing out late in the game. I see this game like the Purdue game. Low-scoring and the team that can finish a drive in the 4th quarter wins.

Prediction: Marshall 24, Virginia Tech 17