As soon as the Hokies fix one problem, another one pops up. This time it’s inability to stop the run. Luckily, the Hokies’ offense seems to have found its rhythm. They were able to keep up with Florida State for three quarters. The run defense, however, is a different story. Tech continues to get gashed on the ground. This is an area the coaches will have to get fixed in the second half of the season.
SP+ Rankings
Virginia Tech
Overall: 76th Offense: 96th Defense: 51st Special Teams: 44th
Wake Forest
Overall: 51st Offense: 55th Defense: 53rd Special Teams: 73rd
This is a standard Wake Forest offense under Dave Clawson. Good but not great. They are balanced and move the ball consistently. Their offense has stalled out a bit in the last two games against Georgia Tech and Clemson. Tech’s big concern needs to be stopping RB Demond Claiborne. Like all the running backs the Hokies have seen this year, he has the potential to break a big run. QB Mitch Griffis has been okay. He connects on a high percentage of his passes but he is a checkdown king. He likes to keep his throws within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. This might be a good week for the Hokies DBs to be a little more aggressive against short throws and checkdowns.
The Wake Forest defense has been pretty good. They are top 40 in the nation in total defense. The good news for the Hokies is they tend to give up more yards on the ground than through the air. This would be a good game for Kyron Drones, Bhayshul Tuten and Malachi Thomas to get going on the ground. The same playbook that has worked against Pitt and three quarters against FSU needs to be the go-to in this game.
This is a pretty good matchup for the Hokies. My biggest concern is that Wake is an extremely well-coached team and they don’t beat themselves. Tech has the horses on offense to win but they need to rely on the defense to not give up big running plays. On a neutral site, Wake would win by 3. But I’m going to give the nod to the Hokies at home here and pick Tech by 3.
It was great to see Virginia Tech get back to playing what resembled Virginia Tech football. What has been holding the team back this season is the inability to run and stop the run. On Saturday, they were able to do both and get a big win at home. To push for a bowl game this season, they will need to replicate that success in the coming weeks. They did it against a good Pitt defense but upcoming weeks may provide a tougher challenge.
SP+ Rankings
Virginia Tech
Overall: 72nd Offense: 92nd Defense: 42nd Special Teams: 46th
Florida State
Overall: 18th Offense: 15th Defense: 25th Special Teams: 15th
Florida State has a good but not great offense. The key to their offense is Jordan Travis and the passing game. This is actually a decent matchup for VT who has been good against the pass this season. Look for Florida State to try to take advantage of Virginia Tech’s leaky run game. If Tech can hold their own against FSU’s run game, it is going to be much tougher for the ‘Noles to move the ball in this game. Tech needs to key-in on Keon Coleman in the pass game and Trey Benson in the run game.
Florida State is not as good as you would expect defensively. Statistically, Virginia Tech has a better defense. FSU has played stronger competition to this point but if I were a Florida State fan, I’d worry about their ability to stop the pass. While Virginia Tech does not have a strong passing attack, Kyron Drones has shown enough now to be dangerous. Especially if Jaylin Lane is back to 100% healthy and Quan Felton can be a consistent deep threat. The challenge that Tech will have will be keeping the ground game going long enough to keep FSU honest on defense.
I like this game on paper a lot more than I thought I would. Florida State’s strengths actually matchup pretty well against Virginia Tech’s. It’s not as horrible a matchup as I thought it would be. The Hokies have the schedule helping them a bit in this one too. While Florida State is coming off a bye and should be healthy, it’s easy to let your guard down when it’s your first home game in a month. Not to mention, I don’t like byes this early in the season. Rust becomes a factor for teams who rely on the passing game. I could be wrong but this seems like it could be a competitive game. Florida State definitely has more talent but Tech has enough going for them right now to give them a game. FSU’s talent advantage will eventually wear down the Hokies but this game looks more like the ‘Noles game with BC where it came down to the 4th quarter.
This team does good things in stretches but not consistently enough. The offense is good for 2-3 good drives per game. And the defense is generally good aside from a couple of big plays per game. Consistency is what this team needs to find. Until then, unfortunately, it’s going to be difficult to win football games.
Good drives defensively against Marshall
Good drives offensively against Marshall
SP+ Rankings
Virginia Tech
Overall: 80th Offense: 97th Defense: 54th Special Teams: 51st
Pittsburgh
Overall: 53rd Offense: 62nd Defense: 46th Special Teams: 86th
Pitt is struggling offensively. They are having the same type of offensive season as Virginia Tech. It’s been difficult for Pitt to run or pass this season. The good news for them is that Virginia Tech has one of the worst run defenses in the country. If Pitt just keeps the ball on the ground and feeds Rodney Hammond, he should have a big day. Expect big numbers from him on Saturday.
As usual, Pitt is an excellent defensive team. This is the big matchup problem on Saturday, Pitt’s defense going up against VT’s offense. Pitt does not give up many yards through the air, so Tech will have to keep the ball on the ground. Once again, they will need to get creative with their play calling to create space in the run game. The Hokies should consider misdirection and option plays to slow down the Pitt defense. Draw plays and inside runs will not cut it this week against this stout defense.
I don’t like the matchup of Pitt’s defense vs Virginia Tech’s offense. That seems like a huge mismatch. Tech has had trouble getting yards on the ground the past 3 weeks and this is will be an even bigger challenge. My guess is that the Pitt offense won’t have to do a lot on Saturday. The Pitt defense will deliver short fields and as long as Pitt can keep the ball on the ground, they should find some yards and points. Don’t expect a lot of yards from quarterback Phil Jurkovec, but Rodney Hammond will have a big day and deliver a win for the Panthers. I see this game going like the Rutgers game, close early with Pitt pulling away in the 2nd half.
There was some good from the Rutgers game and a lot of bad. The good? Tech found a quarterback in Kyron Drones that fits this offense. This offense needs to go back to what worked in 2016 with Jerod Evans — one read and go. That’s what I saw with Drones last week. We need to keep it simple. I’ve also spotted a pattern with this team:
There’s a pattern here: slow start, offense figures it out a little, defense collapses pic.twitter.com/L3qSXUX50w
Overall: 78th Offense: 92nd Defense: 60th Special Teams: 51st
Marshall
Overall: 72nd Offense: 93rd Defense: 38th Special Teams: 94th
Marshall has a balanced offense. If Tech wants to win this week, they need to limit the big runs that have plagued them the past two weeks. Marshall has a talented running back in Rasheen Ali who can break a big play. The Hokies have to play their assignments and not lose contain on the running back. Tech needs to focus their attention on the run and make Marshall beat them through the air.
Marshall has a good secondary. If you’re going to beat them, you have to do it on the ground. This is where Kyron Drones needs to be able to gobble up yards on the ground to open the game up for the rest of the offense. This would be a good week to incorporate more option looks. This needs to be the Drones-Tuten show. This shouldn’t be the week the Hokies air it out all over the field.
Marshall is coming off an early bye week. I actually don’t like teams taking a bye week this early in the season. It usually causes more issues than it fixes. I’d expect Marshall to get off to a bit of slow start. The Hokies need to take advantage and work quick to get points on the board. They also need to make sure to put a couple of drives together to keep their defense from wearing out late in the game. I see this game like the Purdue game. Low-scoring and the team that can finish a drive in the 4th quarter wins.
Virginia Tech lost a close one to Purdue but there was a lot to be concerned about from that game. First, it looks like Ali Jennings may be out for a long time. That’s troubling because he is clearly this team’s number one receiving option. Second, in consecutive games this team could not run the ball at all. Third, things are a mess at quarterback where Grant Wells hasn’t performed well and now may be injured. This team has a lot of question marks going into the Rutgers game.
I owe the State of New Jersey an apology. I got schooled by @BillyRayTweets here:
Overall: 73rd Offense: 93rd Defense: 50th Special Teams: 21st
Purdue
Overall: 59th Offense: 80th Defense: 37th Special Teams: 43rd
Rutgers is a mediocre offensive team. To be fair, they are very balanced. They do a good job of mixing the run in with the pass. Kyle Monangai is their most explosive running back. They use him like we used Raheem Blackshear (former Rutgers transfer) where he can get yards on the ground but also in the pass game. Their weakness on offense is their pass game. Look for Tech to try to force the issue and make QB Gavin Wimsatt beat them with his arm. This looks like an offense that Tech should be able to slow down, if they can stop Monangai and their run game.
Rutgers has a top-20 defense. This defense looks like it’s no joke. This is year 4 of Greg Schiano and you can tell he has put his mark on this defense. This defense is giving up only 40 rushing yards per game. Tech is coming off a game where they only rushed for 11 yards against a much worse defense. This seems like a mismatch and one that Rutgers should have a sizable advantage.
Rutgers looks like a solid team. They are trying to get their offense in gear but the defense is more than holding up their end. This seems like a tough spot for the Hokies in their first true road game. Tech’s offense is struggling and they are going up against a good defensive team. Not to mention, this could be Kyron Drones’ first start if Grant Wells isn’t able to go. This doesn’t look like the week that Tech’s offense will figure it out. More than likely this is a wake-up call for the offense.
Virginia Tech took care of business against ODU. What did we learn from that game? Well, we found ourselves a couple of capable receivers in the transfer portal. When Grant Wells is settled in, he’s pretty good. And we have some pretty major issues run blocking. Not mention Virginia Tech still has the best entrance in the world.
Overall: 65th Offense: 84th Defense: 49th Special Teams: 59th
Purdue
Overall: 64th Offense: 53rd Defense: 81st Special Teams: 118th
Purdue’s offense is led by Hudson Card, the former Texas Longhorn’s quarterback. After one game, Purdue’s offense looks a lot like the Hokies’ offense. They can pass well but not run the ball. Against Fresno State they ran for 3.6 yards per attempt. Hudson Card had a good day throwing for 254 yards and 2 touchdowns.
The Purdue secondary looked putrid against Fresno State. They gave up 371 yards and 4 touchdowns through the air. You can expect them to try to turn those numbers around this week. But after the Hokies offense has a good day through the air last week, you can expect Tech to try to air it out again this week.
Watch out for the return game. Last week, Purdue running back Tyrone Tracy returned a second half kickoff 98 yards for a touchdown. A breakdown on special teams could be costly in a close game.
Expect big plays in this game. Both teams are going to try to air it out. In that scenario, I like the Hokies secondary having the advantage. On paper, this looks like a game where the over could hit (O/U 49.5). In an even game, you like to go with the home team especially one with momentum coming off an opening week win.
Brent Pry did a great job of adding talent this offseason via the transfer portal. On the depth chart released this week, you can see transfer portal additions starting all over the roster. Ali Jennings (ODU), Jaylin Lane (MTSU), Da’Quan Felton (Norfolk State), Bhayshul Tuten (North Carolina A&T), Antwaun Powell-Ryland (Florida) and Derrick Canteen (Georgia Southern). That’s a big talent infusion in one offseason.
Overall: 72nd Offense: 88th Defense: 51st Special Teams: 68th
Old Dominion
Overall: 121st Offense: 129th Defense: 79th Special Teams: 115th
Old Dominion’s offense brought in new additions in offensive coordinator Kevin Decker and quarterback Grant Wilson from Fordham. Kevin Decker’s offense resembles an air raid offense where they like to air the ball out a lot and play high-tempo. What that will look like in Game 1? Who knows? But that’s what ODU will be trying to do against the Hokies. Tech will need to get pressure on the quarterback to try to make Grant Wilson uncomfortable in the passing game. Consistent pressure will likely need to a turnover or two. Look for Antwuan Powell-Ryland and Keyshawn Burgos to make a big impact.
I think the players I’m most excited to watch this year are APR and Keyshawn Burgos
Defense is the strength of ODU’s squad. Last year, their secondary forced 12 interceptions. Four of those were throws from Grant Wells. This year, the Hokies quarterback needs to avoid mistakes and take what the defense gives him. It would help if the Hokies could keep the ball on the ground and get yards from Bhayshul Tuten and Michael Thomas. That’s a one-two punch that the Hokies didn’t have when they played ODU last season.
RB Bhayshul Tuten and TE Dae’Quan Wright are back participating at practice. Here’s Tuten with a brace on his left knee running a route. #Hokiespic.twitter.com/Ugekebxmpz
In the first game of the year, there is an opportunity for big plays on special teams. Last season, the game flipped on a bad snap that cost the Hokies seven points and was a 10-point swing in what should’ve been a makable field goal. This season, the Hokies need to get a big play on special teams either in the return game or on a blocked kick. Those are the type of plays that can decide a game. Especially in the opener.
The Hokies look like solid favorites in this one. Vegas has this game pegged with Tech as a two touchdown favorite. If Tech can avoid a turnover and penalty-filled meltdown like last season, this should be a comfortable win. The talent infusion that the Hokies brought in the offseason should pay dividends in a game like this. Tech has the clear talent advantage. Expect this game to be low-scoring with Tech being able to score enough to let the defense hold on for the win.
The upcoming ACC football season is going to be wild. Virginia going winless? Drake Maye's butt hurt ruining UNC's season? These predictions and more in this thread!#ACC#CollegeFootball#Hokiespic.twitter.com/wf1ixutWJZ
Virginia Tech is hoping to bounce back from its worst season in 30 years. 3 win seasons are rare in Blacksburg and Brent Pry is hoping to get bowl eligible after a challenging first season.
Coaching Staff:
Brent Pry enters his second season in Blacksburg. Pry struggled in his first season after inheriting a roster with many departures from the previous coaching staff. This season Tyler Bowen will be running the offense as the one-and-only offensive coordinator. Last season, he split the role with Brad Glenn who has since moved on to Cincinnati. This season will hinge on Bowen’s ability get more out of the offense than last season. He will need to be more creative and install an offense that makes sense with the personnel he has.
Offense:
The Hokies’ offense struggled last season leading to historically bad results. Tech had trouble run blocking and receivers had a tough time getting open. That along with an injury to Malachi Thomas led to an offense that couldn’t move the ball consistently.
The good news for this season is that Tech loaded up on capable offensive threats through the transfer portal. The coaching staff brought in Ali Jennings from ODU, Jaylin Lane from Middle Tennessee State and Bhayshul Tuten from North Carolina A&T. All these players have shown explosive abilities at their previous stops. These additions should add some explosive targets for Grant Wells in the passing game and another threat in the running game.
Grant Wells is a capable quarterback. Last year’s performance had a lot to do with a line that couldn’t block and receivers who couldn’t get open. Not to mention an injury to his number one running back. Few quarterbacks would perform well under those conditions. Even with that, he graded out as an average quarterback in the ACC. With more help this season, you should see those numbers improve. His most important task is cutting down on turnovers. Even with Wells in a game manager role, this offense can be successful.
The biggest area to watch for is the play of the offensive line. How do they respond to new coach Ron Crooks? Can he turn them into a productive group? Or does it look like last year’s group that struggled to run and pass block most of the season? My guess is that Crooks’ scheme will fit better with what Bowen is trying to do on offense.
Defense:
Brent Pry’s specialty is defense and we should see more out of that group compared to last season. Since Pry arrived he has prioritized size and speed on the defense. This group is slowly getting more athletic than the group Pry inherited from the previous coaching staff. Pry’s staff has made that a focus in recruiting and in the transfer portal.
The Hokies’ secondary will once again be the strength of the defense with Mansoor Delane and Dorian Strong starting at cornerback. The defense’s ability to create turnovers and limit big plays will be pivotal to the team’s success. The Hokies ranked 129th out of 131 teams in generating turnovers last season. That must change this season in order to improve on last year’s 3-win season.
The biggest question marks for this defense are at defensive end and linebacker. If Brent Pry can find a couple of young guys to step up at those positions this should be a pretty solid group. If not, this could be an average defense like last year’s.
Key Players to Watch:
Quarterback Grant Wells: Wells had a 1:1 touchdown to interception ratio last season. That has to improve for Tech’s offense to be a threat in 2023.
Running Back Malachi Thomas: This offense needs a consistent chain-mover in short yardage. In order for the offense to come around, we need to see Thomas return to his 2021 form.
Defensive Back Mansoor Delane: One of the top cornerbacks in the ACC entering 2023. He needs to back up the hype as a lockdown corner for this defense and become a ballhawk who can turn the ball over to the offense when it comes his way.
Non-Conference Matchups:
Virginia Tech has a manageable non-conference slate. They need a win against Old Dominion in the worst way. This staff cannot afford another loss to an in-state Group of 5 program. There are good opportunities for Power 5 wins against Purdue at home and Rutgers on the road. And finally, don’t overlook that road game against Marshall. Marshall won 9 games last season and will be far from a pushover this season.
ACC Outlook:
After the media picked the Hokies to finish 11th in the ACC preseason poll, the Hokies will have their work cut out for them. If the Hokies can build on the progress they made on defense last season, they should be able to outperform these expectations.
Conclusion:
When Brent Pry took the position of head coach, this job was always going to be a multi-year rebuild. The cupboards were pretty bare when he got here. After bottoming out with a 3-win season, it looks like the outlook is brighter but it is going to be a year-by-year process. The goal for this season should be six wins and a bowl game. Anything more than that is gravy.
Tough games (<40% chance to win)
Pitt. Florida State. Syracuse. Louisville. NC State. The goal here is to try to steal one or two of these games. They are winnable but tougher than the rest.
Toss-up games (50-50 games)
Purdue. Rutgers. Marshall. Wake Forest. Boston College. Virginia. These games will be the difference between 8-4 and 4-8. VT must win at least three of these.
Should win games (>60% to win)
Old Dominion. Tech can’t afford to stub their toe again here especially not at home.
Key games for the Hokies: Wake Forest, Boston College, Virginia.
Upset Alert: at Marshall
Game By Game Predictions
Old Dominion
Purdue
at Rutgers
at Marshall
Pitt
at Florida State
Wake Forest
Syracuse
at Louisville
at Boston College
NC State
at Virginia
Virginia Tech Game by Game Predictions
Final Regular Season Record: 6-6 (4-4 in the ACC) Expected finish: 7th in the ACC
I did a little better on my picks this year than last year. But I thought this team would be much better in the preseason than they actually were. I thought the offense would not have a drop off from Corn’s offense — boy, was I wrong about that. I saw a lot of winnable games and I thought an improved defense combined with a similar offense would get VT over-the-hump to 8 wins. The offense falling off the face of the earth really hurt this team. If VT can find a way to get a more cohesive offensive game plan next year, I think we could see a big improvement in wins and losses. Luckily for the Hokies, there is nowhere to go but up. Can’t get any worse than this season. The coaches need to get really active in the portal this offseason. This team needs more game breakers on offense.
treadmillhorse 
