Month: October 2020

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Louisville Preview and Prediction

One of the biggest issues of the Fuente era is losing games this team shouldn’t lose. And it’s not that Wake Forest is a bad team — they’re not. It’s that they are still a team that a talented group like Virginia Tech should be able to beat most of the time. In order for this program to take the next step, those are the types of games that need to be wins far more often than not.

SP+ Rankings

My prime example of the ACC having a dysfunctional scheduling model is Louisville. They joined the league in 2014 and their first game with the Hokies is in 2020. You wouldn’t think these two programs are in the same league given how few times they’ve played. The ACC needs to change the scheduling model so that member schools are able to play each other more often. Six years between meetings seems like too long.

Louisville can be explosive offensively — but they don’t do it consistently. This is a team that scored 48 on Florida State and 7 against Notre Dame. Their week-to-week offensive outputs raise some questions. They have talent on the offensive side of the ball. That’s not their problem. The problem is that they are not always consistent moving the ball on offense. They rely on big plays to score. But when the big plays aren’t there, they struggle to move the ball down the field.

Louisville’s defense is just as inconsistent as their offense. They gave up 47 points to Miami (and 46 to Georgia Tech) and also gave up 12 to Notre Dame. It’s kinda hard to believe. The one consistent aspect of their defense is that they give up yards on the ground. The Hokies should be able to move the ball on the ground against this defense. Louisville is stronger against the pass. If the Cardinals sell out against the run, Hendon Hooker will need to prove that he can beat them with this arm.

Both teams have consistency issues. I’m a big believer in the bounce-back game in college football. The Hokies had a bad loss last week and we will see a more inspired effort this week. This team has too much talent on the offensive side of the ball to think we’ll see a repeat performance of last week. What will be key is stopping Louisville’s big plays when Virginia Tech is playing defense. You don’t want to get into a shootout on the road with Louisville. Put me down as thinking the Hokies bounce back and win a squeaker on the road.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 33, Louisville 30

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Wake Forest Preview and Prediction

The Hokies took care of business last week against Boston College. I still believe that Boston College is the sneaky good team I described them as last week. Five turnovers were their downfall. But give them time and that’s going to look like a very good win at the end of the year. This week the Hokies move their attention to Wake Forest.

SP+ Rankings

Wake Forest reminds me of NC State. They are competent on both sides of the ball, but aren’t really great at any one thing. Their most impressive stat is being ranked 2nd in the nation averaging a +2 turnover margin per game. They’ve only turned the ball over once all year. That’ll keep you a lot of games. The scariest aspect of their offense is that they are VERY well balanced. If the Hokies can’t stop the run, they might run into a situation like the UNC game where Wake could pour on the points. I’m hopeful the run defense has improved since that game, but will the Hokies be able to stop Wake’s potent passing attack?

Offensively, this looks like a very good matchup for the Hokies. Wake has trouble stopping the run. The Hokies have been able to run all over everybody they’ve faced so far. I also don’t think Wake has seen a rushing attack with a mobile QB like the Hokies have in Hendon Hooker. You can bet to see some 8-man fronts from Wake to get the Hokies to have to beat them through the air. If Tech can keep them honest with the passing attack, Virginia Tech should have a big day on the ground.

This one has shootout written all over it. Wake will have success moving the football and putting up some points. The Hokies have a chance to limit that success if they can limit the run game and get after their quarterback. I like both offenses but Virginia Tech’s is a little better. With a few more bodies back on the defensive side of the ball, we’ll see an improved defensive effort as well. One thing that scares me is that Wake is very good in the return game. So that’s an element that could flip this game on it’s head. But all things being equal, I like a close game shootout where the Hokies end up winning by a touchdown.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 38, Wake Forest 31

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Boston College Preview and Prediction

Virginia Tech’s loss to North Carolina was disappointing but not necessarily unexpected. UNC looked like the better team. But that game did raise a couple of questions. Could the Hokies have won if Hendon Hooker had started? What if the Hokies had their full roster of defensive players? What happens if Khalil Herbert gets more than two carries in the first half? The reality is that the Hokies got outplayed on defensive side of the ball. You don’t need to analyze it more than that. Anybody watching could see that.

SP+ Rankings

Boston College is a sneaky good team. This is the type of team if you aren’t ready for what they are bringing, they can get you. On offense, it’s a two-man show with Phil Jurkovec and Zay Flowers. There about as good a QB-WR combo as there is in the ACC. Boston College ranks 7th in the nation in passing offense. And Zay Flowers ranks 4th in the nation in receiving yards and receiving touchdowns. He’s a talented player who you can expect to be playing on Sundays. The Hokies need to put Waller on Flowers to keep him in check. The good news is that BC is one of the worst rushing teams in the country. So if you can keep them from beating you through the air, they won’t beat you on the ground.

Defensively, they are solid all around. Not great but not bad either. This defense has kept BC in every game this year — including the North Carolina game. They should present some problems to a Hokies offense that has been moving the ball at will against everybody they’ve played this year. If the Hokies can stick to the balanced attack they’ve shown in the first three weeks, they should be in good shape against Boston College. It will be important to establish the run game with Khalil Herbert to open up the passing game over the top. The Hokies will need some contributions from their top receiving threats to move the ball against this defense. Tre Turner and James Mitchell need to have big games.

The Hokies are double-digit favorites going into this one, but the matchup looks closer than that on paper. The Hokies were obliterated in the run game against North Carolina. Will that happen against BC? Probably not. But they need to show that they have corrected a couple of things on that side of the ball. Next, can the Hokies stop the potent Jurkovec-Flowers combo? If Tech can get their full complement of defensive backs on the field, the Hokies stand a good chance of winning their fair share of those matchups. My biggest concern is Virginia Tech being able to stop the run. If the Hokies can show they can do that, they have a very good chance to win. But if Boston College is rushing for 5+ yards per carry, the odds don’t seem nearly as good. Put me down as thinking the Hokies bounce back this week defensively and have another good offensive performance.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 38, Boston College 28

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North Carolina Preview and Prediction

For two weeks in a row the Hokies have been able to pull out wins even while being undermanned on defense. The Hokies have been able to win with a dominant run game which currently ranks #1 in the country in rush yards per attempt. If Tech is able to keep up this type of dominant run game, they will be tough to stop. But the competition level goes up this week with a trip to Chapel Hill.

SP+ Rankings

Virginia Tech

Overall: 23rd
Offense: 31st
Defense: 24th
Special Teams: 21st

North Carolina

Overall: 11th
Offense: 10th
Defense: 37th
Special Teams: 43rd

North Carolina has an impressive passing attack but it has yet to come together in 2020. If the Hokies are still missing defensive backs, this is a passing attack that can exploit that weakness. Tech needs their top defensive backs this week to stop a powerful aerial attack. To limit its effectiveness the Hokies will need to get in the backfield early and often. Virginia Tech ranks #1 in the nation in sacks. They will need a strong performance from their front seven to get after Sam Howell and limit the North Carolina passing attack.

North Carolina’s defense has been impressive, but it’s been against some pretty ineffective offenses. So far this year, the Tar Heels have been the #1 team in the nation against the run. If they can keep that up, it will force the Hokies to have to beat them through the air. If Hendon Hooker is behind center, the Hokies stand a better chance to air it out. The Hokies should be able to find some running room, but it’s unlikely they’ll be able to run for 300+ yards for the third consecutive week.

On paper, this looks like a great matchup between two evenly matched teams. UNC has a great passing attack. Tech has a great running attack. Both teams feature stingy defenses. The Hokies are still trying to get all their guys back on the field to see how stingy this defense can be. If you’ve watched UNC, you get the feeling you haven’t seen the best that offense has to offer yet. This may be the week they break out of their funk. If the Hokies are going to win, they need to pound UNC with the running game. Like they did NC State and Duke. If the Hokies can pound the rock for four quarters and connect on a couple of shots downfield. They have a good chance to win. Before the season started, I had this game marked down as a loss. But after seeing how impressive this offensive line and running game have been, Tech should be able to pull this one out.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 34, North Carolina 31

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Duke Preview and Prediction

Last week’s win was a big one. Being down 23 players and 2 coaches is a big deal. Especially when even more than those 23 players hadn’t practiced much in the two weeks leading up to the game. Getting a conference win given those circumstances is impressive. The coaching staff did a great job preparing the team, despite difficulty practicing and preparing with a couple of starters out.

SP+ Rankings

Virginia Tech

Overall: 17th
Offense: 25th
Defense: 21st
Special Teams: 28th

Duke

Overall: 81st
Offense: 120th
Defense: 38th
Special Teams: 37th

Duke has struggled on offense this year. They are 70th in the nation in turnovers this year (out of 72 teams that have played). Ouch. Their quarterback, Chase Brice, is only completing 51.3% of his passes with a 1:3 TD-INT ratio. Also not good. You start to wonder if David Cutcliffe might give his backup a shot in this game. Duke’s struggles in the passing game might not look so bad if they had an effective running game, but they rank 65th in the nation in that category. Duke is averaging 254 yards through the air this season. But most of that is due to the face they’ve been trailing by multiple touchdowns in their three games this season. If the Hokies have to play backups in the secondary, Duke may find some success thru the air.

Duke’s defense is solid, but their offense haven’t done them any favors by leaving them out on the field a lot this year. They have a pair of talented defensive ends who can get after the quarterback. Like last week, this is a good week to get the running game going and keep pressures off the quarterback. Any slow developing plays work to the strength of Duke’s defense. Virginia Tech needs to focus on the running game, screen game and quick passes to keep the Duke defensive ends out of the backfield.

Duke looks better than their 0-3 record. With that defense alone, they should be able to win some games. Unfortunately for them, their offense has been a disaster to start the year. They can’t run or pass with any sort of predictability. And that’s when they aren’t turning the ball over — which they do a lot. Like last week, the Hokies might be down a couple of starters due to COVID-related issues. Also like last week, this is another week where they should go with a safe gameplan of running the football to try to keep their defense off the field. Worked for them last week. And it’s likely to work for them again this week.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 35, Duke 17

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