Date & Time: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:00 p.m. ET
Location: Lane Stadium, Blacksburg, Virginia
Broadcast: The CW
Records: Virginia Tech (1-0), Old Dominion (1-0)
Virginia Tech did exactly what it was supposed to do against VMI. Actually, it did considerably more than that. The Hokies beat VMI 73-3, rolled up 619 yards of offense, held the Keydets to 83 yards and basically turned James Franklin’s first game at Virginia Tech into a three-hour infomercial for the new era.
That was fun. Now we get a real football game. Old Dominion comes to Blacksburg on Saturday, and I don’t think anybody associated with Virginia Tech needs a reminder about what happened the last time these teams played. ODU beat Virginia Tech 45-26 in Lane Stadium last season. Brent Pry was fired the next day. The Monarchs are now 3-4 all-time against Virginia Tech and 2-2 in the last four meetings. James Franklin was hired, in part, to make games like this considerably less interesting.
Old Dominion is Actually Pretty Good
Let’s get this out of the way first: ODU isn’t VMI. The Monarchs went 10-3 last season, beat Virginia Tech, won the Cure Bowl and finished the year allowing just 18.5 points per game. Two of their three losses came against College Football Playoff teams Indiana and James Madison. Ricky Rahne has built a legitimately good Sun Belt program.
There’s also an interesting connection here. Rahne worked for Franklin at Kansas State, Vanderbilt and Penn State, eventually becoming Franklin’s offensive coordinator at Penn State. These guys know each other extremely well.
ODU also comes into this game 1-0 after beating Norfolk State 31-10. It wasn’t necessarily dominant. Norfolk State actually drove 93 yards on its opening possession before fumbling at the ODU 2-yard line. The Spartans finished with 220 yards, and ODU only had 319. But the Monarchs forced three turnovers, went 5-for-5 in the red zone and pulled away in the second half. That’s kind of what good teams do against inferior opponents.
Quinn Henicle Changes the ODU Offense
ODU had to replace Colton Joseph at quarterback after he threw for 2,624 yards and 21 touchdowns last season. Quinn Henicle won the job, and he gives this offense a different dimension. Against Norfolk State, Henicle completed 9-of-12 passes for 137 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. More importantly, he ran 13 times for 68 yards and two touchdowns.
Virginia Tech needs to account for him in the running game. That’s probably the biggest defensive key for the Hokies this week. ODU ran for 186 yards against Norfolk State with Henicle, Devin Roche, Ja’Varien Salter and Trey Hall all contributing.
Roche is the guy Virginia Tech should know best. He ran for 630 yards last season at 5.7 yards per carry and enters 2026 as a preseason First-Team All-Sun Belt selection. ODU is going to try to run the football. Virginia Tech needs to make them throw it.
Henicle only attempted 13 passes against Norfolk State. Get ODU behind the chains, eliminate the quarterback run game and make a relatively inexperienced quarterback beat you throwing the ball in Lane Stadium. That’s the formula.
Virginia Tech’s Offense Gets a Real Test
There really isn’t much to criticize about scoring 73 points. Ethan Grunkemeyer looked comfortable. Virginia Tech ran the ball extremely well. The receivers made plays. The offensive line controlled the line of scrimmage. Tech finished with 619 yards and averaged 8.6 yards per play. That’ll work.
The problem is that VMI was completely overmatched. ODU won’t be. This is the first game where we should start learning something about Virginia Tech’s offense. Grunkemeyer threw for 281 yards and looked exactly like what Virginia Tech needs him to be. He didn’t have to play hero ball. He distributed the football, took what the defense gave him and let Virginia Tech’s skill players do the rest. I want more of that.
Marcellous Hawkins and Jeffrey Overton Jr. also give Virginia Tech a backfield that should be good enough to consistently run the football. ODU’s defense is going to provide a considerably better test up front.
The Monarchs returned very little from last year’s offense, but there’s more continuity defensively, including preseason All-Sun Belt defensive lineman Chris Forbes and defensive back Mario Easterly.
Virginia Tech shouldn’t abandon what worked against VMI. Run the football. Get Grunkemeyer comfortable. Use play action. Get Ayden Greene and Que’Sean Brown involved downfield. The Hokies have more talent. Make ODU have to deal with it.
The Penalties Need to Stop
Here’s the one thing from the VMI game that absolutely cannot continue. Virginia Tech had 11 penalties for 93 yards. That’s not good. You can commit 11 penalties against VMI and win by 70. You cannot commit 11 penalties against Maryland, Pitt, Georgia Tech, Clemson, SMU or Miami and expect things to go particularly well.
Virginia Tech has spent years losing games because of stupid penalties, missed assignments, turnovers and general self-inflicted errors. The entire point of hiring an experienced coach like Franklin was to stop doing that. ODU is good enough to punish Virginia Tech for mistakes. Don’t give them the opportunity.
SP+ / FPI
The computers like Virginia Tech pretty comfortably here. Virginia Tech entered the season No. 36 nationally in SP+ with a +8.6 rating. ESPN’s FPI had the Hokies even higher at No. 33 with a +7.4 rating.
Old Dominion enters the matchup with an SP+ rating around -6.9 and sits No. 85 nationally in ESPN FPI at -4.4. That’s a pretty significant gap. FPI gave Virginia Tech roughly an 85% chance to win this game in the preseason, and the betting market has moved even more aggressively toward the Hokies.
Virginia Tech is currently around an 18-point favorite. That feels about right. This shouldn’t be a toss-up. It shouldn’t be a game where Virginia Tech needs a fourth-quarter drive to survive. But it also isn’t VMI. ODU is capable of making Virginia Tech uncomfortable if the Hokies mess around.
Key Statistical Matchups
ODU rushing offense vs. Virginia Tech run defense
This is the matchup. ODU ran for 186 yards against Norfolk State and has a quarterback who is legitimately part of the running game. Henicle had 68 yards and two touchdowns himself.
Virginia Tech needs to play disciplined football on the edge and tackle considerably better than Hokie defenses have in some of the previous ODU games.
If Tech holds ODU below 150 rushing yards, I have a difficult time seeing the Monarchs scoring enough points to win.
Virginia Tech offensive line vs. ODU defensive front
VMI told us basically nothing about Virginia Tech’s offensive line. ODU will tell us more.
Virginia Tech ran for 268 yards in Week 1. I don’t expect them to put up another 268 against the Monarchs, but the Hokies should still be able to consistently create running lanes.
This is a Power 4 offensive line against a Sun Belt defensive front.
Explosive plays
This is probably ODU’s best path to making the game weird. Henicle averaged more than 15 yards per completion against Norfolk State, including a 38-yard third-and-19 completion.
Virginia Tech cannot let ODU hang around because of busted coverages and quarterback scrambles. Make them drive the field.
Turnovers
ODU forced three turnovers against Norfolk State. Two of them immediately turned into touchdowns. That’s how underdogs win football games.
Virginia Tech had a muffed punt against VMI that basically handed the Keydets their only points. Don’t do that Saturday. ODU doesn’t need any help.
Third down
ODU converted 55.6% of its third downs against Norfolk State. That number needs to come way down.
The worst version of this game is Henicle repeatedly escaping the pocket on third-and-6, moving the chains and keeping Grunkemeyer standing on the sideline. Get off the field.
The Numbers
Virginia Tech
- Record: 1-0
- Points per game: 73
- Total offense: 619 yards per game
- Rushing: 268 yards per game
- Passing: 351 yards per game
- Yards per play: 8.6
- SP+: No. 26
- FPI: No. 33
Old Dominion
- Record: 1-0
- Points per game: 31
- Total offense: 319 yards per game
- Rushing: 186 yards vs. Norfolk State
- Passing: 137 yards vs. Norfolk State
- Yards per play: 5.8
- SP+: No. 90
- FPI: No. 85
Betting Line
- Virginia Tech -18 to -18.5
- Total: approximately 50.5-51.5
- Moneyline: Virginia Tech roughly -1050 to -1200
What I’m Looking For
Last week I wanted Virginia Tech to look organized and put an inferior opponent away. They did that. Now I want to see them do it against an actual FBS team.
Can Virginia Tech run the football when the other team has legitimate FBS players on the defensive line?
Can Grunkemeyer look as comfortable when he’s under pressure?
Can the defense contain a mobile quarterback?
Can Virginia Tech clean up the penalties?
And most importantly, can Virginia Tech play a team it is clearly better than without turning the afternoon into complete mess?
That last one has been a problem. Virginia Tech has lost three times to Old Dominion since 2018. Once is a fluke. Three times is a problem.
Franklin talked this week about ODU having Virginia Tech’s full attention. Good. They’ve earned it. There should be absolutely no overlooking this team. But there also shouldn’t be any fear of them.
Virginia Tech has the better roster, the better quarterback situation, home-field advantage and a coaching staff that understands exactly what this game means. Go prove it.
Prediction
I think ODU hangs around for a little while.
The Monarchs are well coached, Henicle’s legs will cause Virginia Tech some problems and this is a significantly better football team than the one Tech played last Saturday.
But eventually the talent difference takes over.
Virginia Tech should be able to run the football. Grunkemeyer will hit a couple of explosive plays in the passing game. The defense will force Henicle into obvious passing situations, and ODU won’t be able to consistently sustain drives.
I also don’t think there’s any chance Virginia Tech overlooks this game after what happened last season. This is exactly the kind of game James Franklin was hired to make boring again.
Prediction: Virginia Tech 38, Old Dominion 17
treadmillhorse 