Category: Predictions

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East Carolina Preview and Prediction

The game against Boston College was one of the most complete performances in years. It was close to a perfect performance on both sides of the ball. That won’t happen every week. So what is this team? The one that fumbled nine times in two games or the one that played near flawless football against BC?

Next up is East Carolina. A thorn in the side of the Hokies for years. Here are the last seven meetings between the two schools:

Sat., Sep 26, 2015, Greenville, N.C , L, 28-35
Sat., Sep 13, 2014, Blacksburg, Va., L, 21-28
Sat., Sep 14, 2013, Greenville, N.C., W, 15-10
Sat., Sep 10, 2011, Greenville, N.C., W, 17-10
Sat., Sep 18, 2010, Blacksburg, Va., W, 49-27
Thu., Nov 5, 2009, Greenville, N.C., W, 16-3
Sat., Aug 30, 2008, Charlotte, N.C., L, 22-27

Not exactly dominating, huh? The Hokie are 4-3 against ECU over this period. To ECU’s credit, they are 6-0 against the ACC in the last four years. These guys LOVE beating ACC teams and they’re good at it.

09/10/2016 East Carolina 33 – North Carolina St 30 W
09/26/2015 East Carolina 35 – Virginia Tech 28 W
09/20/2014 East Carolina 70 – North Carolina 41 W
09/13/2014 East Carolina 28 – Virginia Tech 21 W
11/23/2013 East Carolina 42 – North Carolina St 28 W
09/28/2013 East Carolina 55 – North Carolina 31 W

Everyone is feeling good after the shutout against BC. Keep in mind the last two times the Hokies played ECU, they were coming off big wins. In 2014, they had just beat Ohio State 35-21 at the Horseshoe. And last year, they had just plastered Purdue on the road 52-24. The Hokies lost both games against ECU coming off those big wins.

New coaching staff. New era. The Hokies rebounded well from a tough loss against Tennessee. Now how will they handle success? Can they string together two good performances in a row?

They key to Bud Fosters defense is keeping teams one dimensional. In 2014, ECU was able to throw it all over the field on the Hokies. In 2015, the Hokies could not stop the ECU ground game. This year, if the Hokies can stop the ECU ground game, the Hokies should be able to slow down their offense.

The ECU defense can be best described as middle of the road. They are a bend but don’t break defense. They’ve been good this year at keeping teams out of the endzone when they get to the redzone. The key to beating ECU is getting their offense off the field. Then when you have the ball, get it into the endzone. Finish your drives.

ECU’s offensive stats have been excellent this year. They rank 9th in the country in total offense. The Hokies will have their hands full trying to keep up with ECU’s receivers. Particularly Zay Jones who almost set an NCAA records for receptions last week.

This is a difficult game to pick. We have yet to see a passing offense this good this year. The Hokies lead the nation in passing yards allowed. They’ll get a big test on Saturday. As long as the Hokies can hang on the football, I feel good about their chances. ECU might be a bit surprised by the offensive firepower that the Hokies bring to the table these days. I think the Hokies defense will be able to stop the run and hang tough against the ECU offense. And the Hokies offense will have another good day against the ECU defense. Particularly in the run game.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 35, ECU 21

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Boston College Preview and Prediction

Stop. Fumbling. The. Football. If the Hokies had been able to hold on to the football on Saturday, they likely would’ve won. Or at least would’ve had a good chance to win.

Oh well. On to the next one. Up next is Boston College. Here are their last 9 ACC games:

Florida State Seminoles Lost 14-0
at Duke Blue Devils Lost 9-7
Wake Forest Demon Deacons Lost 3-0
at Clemson Tigers Lost 34-17
at Louisville Cardinals Lost 17-14
Virginia Tech Hokies Lost 26-10
NC State Wolfpack Lost 24-8
at Syracuse Orange Lost 20-17
vs Georgia Tech Lost 17 – 14

0-9 in their last ACC games? Easy sledding, right? Not so much. Boston College had the #1 defense in the nation last year. This year, they have the #3 defense in the nation. And it’s not smoke and mirrors. They’re really good.

This might be the toughest defense that the Hokies play all season. They allow 48 rushing yards per game. And they’ve already played Georgia Tech. Georgia Tech only managed 2.7 yards per carry against them. This is a team that you cannot run on. If you want to beat BC, you have to beat them thru the air.

You know what else makes this an intriguing matchup? Scot Loeffler. He’s the Eagle’s new offensive coordinator. You can bet he knows our personnel pretty well and he know Bud Foster’s defense. If there is anyone who knows how to exploit our personnel on defense, it’s him. It should not surprise you if BC has a couple of tricks up their sleeve against our defense.

The Hokies are 2-9 in their last 11 home games vs the Power 5. It’s time for that to change. Boston College have lost their last 9 ACC games. You would think this should be an easy game. Not likely. BC is the type of team that can beat you with defense alone. Especially if you’re prone to making mistakes and turning the ball over. I still expect the Hokies to win but the offense is going to need to make some plays thru the air. This one won’t be easy.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 17, Boston College 13

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Battle at Bristol Preview and Prediction

College football’s biggest game ever! When fans look up the most attended college football game of all time this will be at the top of the list and by a wide margin. My guess is that it will stay there for a while. I haven’t heard of any other race tracks hosting any college football games anytime soon. Or any other venues anywhere near as big for that matter.

This game is a novelty with the added bonus of a compelling match up. Tennessee wants to show that they are deserving of their preseason top 10 ranking. The Hokies want to show that they’re back under new coach Justin Fuente. For one team this game will be a springboard for the rest of their season.

I would throw out the results from week 1 for both teams. It was clear that both teams made an effort not to show much in their first game. I don’t think either team’s first game was any sign of what we’re going to see in this game. On Saturday you’ll see two teams who will come focused and prepared to play. Neither coach will hold anything back. You’ll see both teams’ full arsenal on display.

This matchup is not as lopsided as most would have you believe. Tennessee has a slight talent advantage and the more experienced quarterback. On a big stage like this that could make a huge difference. But week 1 did show us that first year starters can win big games (Florida State, Texas and Alabama). The experience factor does matter though. Those lights are going to be awfully bright on Saturday.

Tennessee has a talented and experienced defense. They have a disruptive defensive line that has racked up a lot of sacks. Their linebackers are tackling machines and do not allow many yards on the ground. If the Hokies are going to have success on Saturday, it will likely come through the air. They will need to target the defensive secondary and throw away from Cameron Sutton.

Virginia Tech’s defense matches up well against the Tennessee offense. The one area of concern is that Joshua Dobbs is a mobile quarterback. Bud Foster will load up to stop the run and make Dobbs beat the Hokies through the air. The stats suggest that Dobbs struggles at times as a passer, particularly with the deep ball. If the Hokies use this strategy, expect it to be successful to limiting the Vols offense. This also requires keeping talented running backs Jalen Hurd and Alvin Kamara in check.

One area of concern in this game is special teams. Tennessee has a talent and depth advantage. That can cause some concerns on kick and punt returns. Joey Slye will need to boot every kick through the end zone to keep the Vols from returning kicks. The punting game will also be important for field position. Mitchell Ludwig will need to perform better than he did against Liberty. The Hokies also need to make sure that Evan Berry doesn’t break a big return in the punt game.

This will be a close game. Both teams are well matched. Tennessee has a slight talent advantage but not enough to say this will be easy sledding for them. Bud Foster will come up with an excellent scheme to keep Tennessee’s offense in check. The Hokies will struggle when they have the ball. Tennessee has an excellent defense and talent all over the field. Watch out early on, there is the potential for big shifts in the first five minutes of the game. Both teams will have some early jitters because of the big game environment and crowd noise. Also, look out for big special teams plays to impact the outcome. Plays like big kick/punt returns and missed fields goals. I like the Hokies chances but I think Tennessee’s talent and experience win out.

Prediction: Tennessee 30, Virginia Tech 17

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Liberty Preview and Prediction

Justin Fuente’s first game as head coach at Virginia Tech. Will his team be ready? How will he shuffle his personnel? Will he choose to go with simple packages to not show anything before Tennessee? Or will he go pedal to metal in order for his offense to a find groove? As far games against FCS go, this one should be pretty interesting.

What do we want to see from Virginia Tech? I’d like to see us get the ball into the hands of our playmakers. I want to see a lot of handoffs from Jerod Evans to Travon McMillian and Sam Rogers. I want to see short passes to Isaiah Ford, Cam Phillips and Bucky Hodges. Get the ball to your playmakers and let them make plays. Oh, and no turnovers please. PLEASE.

On defense, I don’t want to see the Hokies make any major snafus. No busted coverages. No wide open running lanes. Assignment football. This defense should be able to handle Liberty’s offense even without Adonis Alexander. It’s all about covering their assignments. If they do that, I can’t see Liberty score more than seven. Although, I have my doubts that we will see perfect assignment football from our defense.

Things to lookout for from Liberty:

Stephon Masha (QB, 6’1″, 205 lbs, Jr.) – Uh oh. Running quarterback. Call me when we figure that one out.

Strong passing game – Liberty ranked 29th last season in passing offense last year.

Trick plays – Turner Gill pulls out a trick or two every now and then. Look out for that.

I don’t think that Liberty has the horses to pull off this upset. The Hokies didn’t play a top 10 opponent this past Monday, right? Justin Fuente is the type of coach that always looks for opportunities. This Saturday is opportunity is to show off his team. He seems like the type of coach that is not shy about putting points on the board, regardless of the opponent. This is a game that the Hokies should win without too much trouble. Show up. Play assignment football. Walk away with a comfortable win.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 42, Liberty 17

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2016 Virginia Tech Season Preview

It’s a new day. The Justin Fuente era. Virginia Tech found an elite offensive mind to pair with Bud Foster. On paper it looks like a match made in heaven but what will it look like when the pads go on?

The hire was well received by the college football world. Most said it was one off the best hires of the offseason, if not the best.

But what does Fuente inherit? Is the cupboard full? Half-full? Empty? Does he have what he needs to win in year 1? Let’s take a look EA Sports NCAA Football-style.

Coach:

justin-fuente

Offensive Coordinator:

brad-cornelsen

Defensive Coordinator:

bud-foster

Quarterback:

jerod-evans

Running Backs:

running-backs

Wide Receivers:

wide-receivers

Tight Ends:

tight-ends

Offensive Line:

offensive-line

Defensive Line:

defensive-line

Linebackers:

linebackers

Defensive Backs:

defensive-backs

Specialists:

specialists

Prediction:

prediction

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Independence Bowl Preview and Prediction

Frank’s last game. Frank Beamer is an institution at Virginia Tech. I think sometimes it’s easy to overlook Frank’s longevity and consistency at Virginia Tech. It’s remarkable, especially in this era of college football. 29 years. 23 straight bowl games. 7 conference championship. 5 division titles. That’s a hall of fame resume and Frank did it with as much class as anyone who has ever coached. He will be missed and today should be a celebration of what Frank has accomplished.

Now on to the game, Tulsa is one of the weakest teams to qualify for a bowl this year. The stats bear this out. Their defense is ranked 125th in the country. For your reference, there are only 128 teams in FBS. They have the 120th ranked rushing defense and 110th ranked passing defense. They allow 38.6 points per game this year. The teams that Tulsa beat on their way to 6 wins won a combined 17 games this year.

So you might be asking, any reason to be concerned going into this game? Well, Tulsa is ranked 14th in the nation in total offense and 11th in the nation in passing offense. Most of this was compiled against a very weak schedule but this team can move the ball nonetheless. Watch out for Keyarris Garrett who is Tulsa’s big playmaker at the wide receiver position. If the Hokies can’t cover him, he could have a big day.

One thing that Tulsa does well on defense is get into the backfield. They are ranked 41st in the nation in tackles for loss. The Hokies needs to stay ahead of the chains and not let themselves get into 3rd and long. That’s where Tulsa thrives on defense.

Keys to the Game for the Hokies:

  1. Stop the Run
  2. Cover Kayarris Garrett
  3. Protect Michael Brewer

Vegas says that the Hokies are the biggest favorite of the college bowl season with most outlets showing the Hokies as a 13.5 point favorite. On paper, it seems fair based on what both teams have accomplished this season.  The most comparable team to Tulsa that the Hokies have played this year is Purdue. The Hokies beat Purdue 51-24. I think the Hokies should have a big day as long as they show up ready to play. If they don’t, Tulsa’s offense is potent enough to make them pay early. Since this is Frank Beamer’s last game, I see the Hokies show up with a fire and put a 1993 Independence Bowl-style beating on the Golden Hurricane.  The Hokies should send Frank Beamer out a winner and we all get to see him on his player’s shoulders one last time.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 38, Tulsa 24

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UVA Preview and Prediction

This is a must win. Can you imagine Mike London’s team ending Frank Beamer’s last season with a loss and snapping the bowl streak? Neither can I. But realistically, it could happen.

The Hoos are a middling team, as they have been for the past decade or so. They’ve been surprisingly tough at home. They’ve taken Notre Dame, Pitt, Miami and Louisville to the final whistle. This doesn’t appear to be a UVA team that you can put away early.

On offense, UVA is effective in the passing game. They are ranked 45th in the nation in passing offense and move the ball pretty well thru the air. With a banged up Brandon Facyson, that could be something to watch for.

When VT has the football, they are going up against a defense that hasn’t been particularly impressive. By the numbers, it’s a struggling offense against a struggling defense. The Hokies will need a big day from Travon McMillian in order to move the ball consistently.

If there is one area where the Hokies should have an advantage, it is on special teams. Even though it may not seem like it, the Hokies have been very efficient on special teams this year and in a close game like this, it could play to the Hokies advantage. Watch for this particularly on punt and kick returns.

The stats show the Hokies as a slight favorite in this matchup. If you’re looking from a talent standpoint, the Hokies should have a moderate talent advantage over the Hoos. If the Hokies play as well as they did against UNC, they should win by two scores. Ultimately, I think it’ll be a close game just like last year’s game was. Whoever makes the biggest mistake or the worst mistake will lose. Hopefully, the Hokies find a way to win and make it twelve straight and send Beamer to his 23rd bowl game.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 24, UVA 17

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North Carolina Preview and Prediction

This game is a mismatch. Not much in this matchup favors the Hokies. North Carolina is firing on all cylinders and are winners of nine straight. It’s hard to see a way that the Hokies can win this game.

North Carolina is a great rushing team with an even better running quarterback. Better hope that the Hokies have somehow figured out a way to contain a running quarterback otherwise Marquise Williams could run for 200 yards. There are plenty of playmakers to worry about on the UNC offense. This group is firing on all cylinders. No one has come close to stopping them in the last two games.

The defense is beatable but will require dedication to running the football. This is not a team that you can easily beat through the air. A consistent running game will control the clock and keep the UNC offense off the field. That is a good formula to beat these guys.

If you’re looking for reasons to be hopeful, UNC has only played two true road games this season. TWO! And both of them went down to the last possession. A seven point win against Georgia Tech and a seven point win against Pitt. Since then they’ve blasted Duke at home by 35 and Miami at home by 38.

My sense is that UNC is a team that thrives at home and may be feeling a bit too good about themselves going into a difficult road game at Virginia Tech. This should be the best crowd the Hokies have seen since the Ohio State game and should be at full throat from start to finish. On paper, the Tarheels are a much better team. These games aren’t played on paper and the Hokies should have the emotional edge. I’m not picking against Frank Beamer in his last home game. Go Hokies!

Prediction: Virginia Tech 34, UNC 28

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Georgia Tech Preview and Prediction

Do it for Frank. The Hokies have a terrible habit of playing flat coming out of a bye week. I really hope this is a different type of bye week with Coach Beamer announcing his retirement 10 days ago. My hope is that we will see a team reinvigorated to win two out of the next three and get Beamer to his 23rd consecutive bowl game and see him off on a high note.

This is certainly a winnable game. This one reminds me of the game against Boston College. Georgia Tech is flawed team. This explains why they are 3-6 overall and 1-5 in conference. They have a respectable offense but not the high powered attack we’re used to from them. But certainly still enough firepower to put some points on the board. This is a team you have to outscore. If you can’t counter their scores, you could find yourself in a difficult position.

I mentioned that this a flawed team and their flaw comes on the defensive side of the ball. This was a bad defensive team to begin with and now they are missing two of their top three defensive tackles. Couple that with inexperience at the linebacker position and you find a team that struggles to stop the run. If the Hokies can stick to the run, we should see a big game from Travon McMillian. Georgia Tech has experienced and talented players in the secondary, so you want to try to run the ball against them. I think we should see the Hokies put up some points this week. They should have the matchup advantage when they have the ball.

I wish I had a read on how this team was going to react to Coach Beamer announcing his retirement. Honestly, we just don’t know. I’m sure the players were just as shocked as we all were when the announcement became known. My guess and hope is that they use it as a rallying cry. I truly feel like this team has been close to putting it all together all year. Hopefully, this is what the need to string together a couple of complete performances. Let’s see if they get off to a good start on this critical three game stretch. I’d love to see Coach Beamer get one last bowl game.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 31, Georgia Tech 24

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Boston College Preview and Prediction

If you like crisp offensive football, don’t tune in on Saturday. This one is going to be ugly. Like Wake Forest 2014 ugly. Boston College has one of the worst offenses in FBS but they also have one of the best defenses. This is going to be a game where neither offense will be able to do much and the game will be decided by field position and turnovers.

If there was ever an offense that was going to make the Virginia Tech defense look good, this is it. The BC offense lacks talent at the skill positions and there really isn’t a player that scares you.  The only player that I’d be concerned about is Jeff Smith as a running QB. The Hokies have had a ton of trouble stopping running QBs this year and you know that the BC coaches have seen enough film to know to use Smith as a weapon.

As good as the BC offense is going to make the Hokies defense look, their defense is going to lay waste to our offense. I’m concerned about Michael Brewer and his surgically repaired collarbone. The Hokies haven’t seen a defense like this since Ohio State and this defense might even be better than Ohio State’s. This is a game where the Hokies offense needs to be patient and show balance. If the Hokies get behind early and have to throw often against this aggressive defense, look out. The best you can hope for is that the defense sets up the offense with good field position and the Hokies offense can put some points on the board.

This is a difficult game to pick. Both teams need this win in a big way as they are both looking to qualify for a bowl game. I’m going to go with BC to win because I think their defense against the Hokies offense is a mismatch and should be enough to pull out the victory. It’s good that this game is on Halloween because it is going to be ugly enough to terrify any college football fan.

Prediction: Boston College 16, Virginia Tech 9