We saw some real improvement against Pitt. The offense scored some points. They were able to run the ball. And they were competitive into the 4th quarter. Can they do it again? Can this team hold up for a full 60 minutes? This team has been pretty good at taking games into the 4th quarter but that’s where things fall apart. Is it talent? Is it depth? Is it injuries? I’m not sure we know yet but it’s something that needs to get fixed if they Hokies want to chalk up more wins this season.
SP+ Rankings
Virginia Tech
Overall: 86th Offense: 118th Defense: 44th Special Teams: 30th
Miami
Overall: 54th Offense: 48th Defense: 61st Special Teams: 18th
Miami’s passing offense has been very good against some bad defenses this season. They got tested against Texas A&M and only managed 9 points. Virginia Tech has had a good pass defense and the Hokies’ front seven should be able to get stops. Having Alan Tisdale return should be a nice boost to this defense this week.
Miami has stout defensive line that does not allow a lot of rushing yards. If the Hokies want to move the ball it’ll have to be through the air. The Hokies’ receivers need to be able to win one-on-one battles with Miami’s defensive backs. The Canes’ linebackers are great run stuffers but not as great in coverage. This would be a good game for the Hokies to use their tights ends and crossing routes in the pass game.
The Hokies defense should hold up pretty well against Miami’s offense. It would help to have Dorian Strong back but even if he’s not, they should hold their own. I’m more worried about the Hokies offense against Miami’s defense. Miami has the ability to make Tech one-dimensional. I don’t trust the Hokies’ passing attack in that situation. The Hokies will need some semblance of a run game to help their pass game be effective. This will be a close game and Miami slows down the Hokies offense enough to pull it out in the end.
The offense has been bad for two straight weeks against not-so-great defenses. I respect that Brent Pry wants to instill his culture but he also has to find a way to make the offense work. In the first half, the Hokies put together a couple of nice drives (see the video tweets below). Unfortunately, they couldn’t keep up that level of consistency throughout the game. But you can see glimpses of an offense that is maybe starting to put things together.
Overall: 87th Offense: 118th Defense: 35th Special Teams: 30th
Pittsburgh
Overall: 45th Offense: 22nd Defense: 76th Special Teams: 121st
Pittsburgh has an efficient offense. Not as good as WVU or UNC’s but still pretty solid. Like those two teams, they are well balanced running and passing the ball. They have a running back to can pick up big chunk plays and a quarterback who doesn’t make many mistakes. A lot like WVU, this is an offense that can nickle and dime you all the way downfield. The Hokies defense will need to find ways to get off the field on third down. They held up well for three quarters against West Virginia. Now, they’ll to find a way to do it for 60 minutes — with a little help from the offense.
This looks like a traditional Pitt defense. Good not great. They are good at defending the pass and not as good at defending the run. With VT’s run blocking I’m not sure that matters much. Teams with good offenses have had success against this defense. Even Georgia Tech’s putrid offense was able to put up 26 points on Pitt. That might be an outlier but still, this defense has it’s weaknesses. It’s all a matter of if the Hokies can exploit any of them.
I’ve started to go into how-many-points-will-Tech-lose-by mode. For me, it’s less about wins and losses this year and more about showing improvement week-to-week. The defense is about what I expected. The offense is far worse than I expected. But teams rarely stay exactly the same all year long. There are ebbs and flows. I’m hoping as the weeks go by, we start seeing some more life from this offense. Until then, I’m in wait-and-see mode. I’m not going to pick Tech to score more than 10 points in a P5 game until they prove they can.
That WVU game did not go as expected. The Hokies defense kept VT in the game for three quarters but the offense couldn’t get anything going. Tech’s offenses failures took its toll on the defense and WVU ran away with the game in the 4th quarter. If the Hokies want to remain competitive in ACC play, they will need to get better play from their offense. If they can’t, there may not be many more wins on the schedule.
SP+ Rankings
Virginia Tech
Overall: 79th Offense: 119th Defense: 23rd Special Teams: 29th
North Carolina
Overall: 67th Offense: 10th Defense: 113th Special Teams: 10th
North Carolina is an elite offensive team. They rank 6th in the nation in passing efficiency and 8th in scoring offense. Drake Maye has picked up right where Sam Howell left off without missing a beat. This is one of the most dangerous offenses in the country. They show balance running and throwing the ball. They look like a better version of West Virginia on offense. The Hokies’ defense showed well against WVU for three quarters until they wore out in the 4th. Tech needs some help from their offense to keep the UNC offense off the field. They can’t continue to go three and out on every drive. The Hokies are going to have to make a couple of plays on Saturday to keep their own defense off the field.
The Hokies running game was anemic vs WVU. They could not get anything going. They rushed for 1.9 yards per carry on 18 rushing attempts. That’s not going to cut in against P5 opponents. The run blocking has been a mess all season and doesn’t appear to be improving. This is a group that needs to turn the corner, otherwise the VT offense will be stuck in the mud all season. We will need to see some improvements from that group starting this week. Joe Rudolph is known for being a great offensive line coach, so the hope is that group will improve over time. North Carolina has one of the worst defenses in the nation. The Hokies will need to find a way to put some points on the board this week. Tech is going to need Grant Wells to be more accurate with his passes. The UNC defense has been known to give up the big play. Grant Wells will need to be able to connect on his passes when his receivers find space in the secondary.
North Carolina is averaging 46.5 points per game. Their lowest scoring output was against Notre Dame last week and they still put up 32 points. The Hokies will need to be able to score into the 30s to win this game. The cannot expect another 17-10 game like last year. If the Hokies aren’t able to run the ball, they are going to be in BIG trouble this week. Tyler Bowen and Joe Rudolph are going to have to figure out a way to get their running backs the ball in space. They can’t continue to run into the line for less than 2 yards per carry. If the Hokies can’t find a way to run the ball like they did against Boston College, it’s going to be a long day for the Tech defense. If there is a lot of rain in the forecast, bet the under.
There was nothing pretty about that win over Wofford. It felt like we were watching the Spring Game on replay. Everything was very vanilla on offense. The Hokies were not able to and impose their will on an FCS team, but that’s where the Hokies are at this point. Tech needs to get back to a place where they can dominate teams from the FCS.
SP+ Rankings
Virginia Tech
Overall: 61st Offense: 106th Defense: 19th Special Teams: 18th
West Virginia
Overall: 58th Offense: 42nd Defense: 72nd Special Teams: 56th
West Virginia has put up a lot of yards and a lot of points through three games. They are averaging 46 points per game. This is a balanced offense that has moved the ball very well this season. They have a big back who can pound the ball and a quarterback who completes a high percentage of his passes. Even if the Hokies are able to stop the run, this is an offense that can dink and dunk all the way down field. For the first time this year, the Hokies will tested by an offense that can go down field in the passing game. JT Daniels is a dangerous passer and the Hokies secondary needs to be ready.
If there is an area where the Hokies can have success it’s against West Virginia’s pass defense. This is a game where Grant Wells will need to take care of the ball and find targets downfield. He will need to get help from Kaleb Smith, Jaden Blue and Christian Moss. The Hokies need to keep WVU from stacking the box against the run game. Grant Wells will need to make them defend the whole field by throwing passes beyond ten yards. If the ‘Eers are able to stack the box, it’ll be a long night for the Hokies.
This has a big-game feel. The Hokies so far have been a bit of a roller coaster. They looked bad against ODU. Good against Boston College. And they didn’t show much at all against Wofford. The Hokies definitely have some weapons, but can they be consistent? These look like two even matched teams. This is one of those games where the team who makes the fewest mistakes (penalties, turnovers) will win. The Hokies need to hope that Grant Wells has turned the corner from his turnover issues in week 1. WVU’s defensive backs will make him pay on bad throws. On a neutral field, I’d pick WVU. But I’m betting on some old school Lane Stadium Thursday night magic.
The Hokies picked up their first win of the Brent Pry era. They needed that win bad. Getting a home win is what this team and fan base needed. That first game in Norfolk was a little rough on everyone associated with this program. The improvement from week 1 to week 2 looked good. The team needs to continue to build on that — particularly on the offensive side of the ball.
SP+ Rankings
Virginia Tech
Overall: 65th Offense: 98th Defense: 30th Special Teams: 43rd
Wofford (FCS rankings)
Overall: 70th Offense: 102nd Defense: 44th
The Mike Young Bowl. A couple of years ago when Wofford was running the triple option, this could’ve been a dangerous game. But the Wofford offense has fallen on hard times. This offense has yet to score a point this season. You read that right. That’s two shut outs in two consecutive games by FCS opponents. Based on this week’s Q&A, Wofford’s issues in their football program run deep. Makes the Fuente era at Tech look tame by comparison.
The Hokies need to focus on coming out of the gate fast. This game has slow start written all over it. An 11am kickoff coming off a big conference win is a recipe for a slow start. Tech needs to show this is a new era where each game is important and they come out focused and ready. This is a game that should be over by halftime but as the Justin Fuente era taught us, things don’t always go to plan. The best game plan this week would be to focus on running the ball. Score a couple of quick touchdowns then work out some issues in the passing game in the 2nd and 3rd quarters. If all goes to plan, then get the second team in for the 2nd half.
Here are the Hokies’ last two outings vs FCS opponents:
2019: Virginia Tech 24, Furman 17 2021: Virginia Tech 21, Richmond 10
I’m not one for style points, I’d usually tell you a win is a win. But this week this offense HAS to score more than 24 points. That’s not to say I’m advocating running up the score on an over-matched Wofford team. But this team needs to show they can score points against an FCS defense. This offense isn’t good enough to take any opponent for granted. This is a good opportunity to get some good reps in against a solid FCS defense. Tech would be wise to not let this opportunity get passed them.
What I am looking for on Saturday is a good start. If Tech still has zero points after the first quarter, that would be disappointing. The Hokies need to establish the run game. They should be able to run the ball with relative ease. The best game plan this week would be to focus on running the ball. Score a couple of quick touchdowns then work out some issues in the passing game in the 2nd and 3rd quarters. If all goes to plan, then get the second team in for the 2nd half. The goal here is to put the game away by halftime and let the reserves play in the 2nd half. Watching the Hokies show up focused for an FCS opponent would be an improvement from the Fuente era. I would also like to see Wofford score their first points of the season this week. Unfortunately, I don’t see it happening.
Brent Pry’s first game as head coach did not go as planned. It’s frustrating but it was a weird football game. Turnovers, penalties, and some questionable penalty calls. I’m not making excuses but the stats say Virginia Tech should have won that game more often than not. Either way, the Hokies have some things to cleanup and that starts this week.
SP+ Rankings
Virginia Tech
Overall: 69th Offense: 100th Defense: 35th Special Teams: 43rd
Boston College
Overall: 76th Offense: 108th Defense: 43rd Special Teams: 106th
As bad as the Hokies losing to ODU was, Boston College didn’t exactly have a great week either. They dropped their first game to Rutgers after accumulating only 29 yards rushing. Phil Jurkovec also threw for 2 interceptions. The Hokies are going to need to keep Boston College one-dimensional again this week. They will also have to stop Jurkovec’s favorite target, Zay Flowers. Doesn’t is feel like he has been at Boston College for the last ten years? He’s a talented wide receiver and one that will look to do some damage on Saturday. If the rain in the forecast holds, that may slow down BC’s passing offense.
The Hokies offense had a multitude of issues on Friday. They took penalties. They turned the ball over. And the passing game did not look in sync at all. Those all appear correctable but one week isn’t a lot of time. My biggest concern last week was the wide receivers not finding any separation. This offense will not work with only running backs and tight ends. Outside of an injured Kaleb Smith someone else is going to need to step up. Unfortunately, this offense doesn’t have a ton of time to figure it out. This will need to be a learn-on-the-job moment for the Hokies young wide receivers. Grant Wells needs more targets to throw to.
One positive on Friday was that the running game worked pretty well. Keshawn King ran for over 100 yards and averaged 5.8 yards per carry. If he can handle the load, the Hokies would be wise to feed him the football on Saturday. Boston College gave up 212 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns to Rutgers on the ground. The Hokies need to pound the rock while they figure out their issues in the pass game. Grant Wells also looked pretty good passing out of play action last week. A strong running game benefits the passing game. This offense would be wise to establish the run early and often.
The Hokies aren’t as bad as they looked on Friday. They still have a lot to clean up but there were the signs of what could be areas of strength. The defense looked very good. The run game looked good. The issues were penalties and turnovers. If the Hokies can clean those up and continue to play stout defense, they should be in good shape. A return to Lane Stadium comes at a good time against a beatable Boston College team. But first the Hokies need to show that they’ve cleaned up some of their issues from last week. If not, it could be a long season. Hammer the under.
We have lift off on the Brent Pry era. Brent Pry and staff have made all the right moves this offseason. Now comes the hard part. How will this staff manage a roster they inherited and turn them into a winning football team? That may be a lot to ask in year one but there is a lot of excitement amongst the fan base. Brent Pry has done a good job of embracing the parts of the program that the fans care about. Pry’s next obstacle is to try get a win on the road at ODU. Something the previous staff was not able to do.
SP+ Rankings
Virginia Tech
Overall: 61st Offense: 90th Defense: 31st
Old Dominion
Overall: 93rd Offense: 80th Defense: 107th
ODU has a good offense but one that plays to the strengths of the Hokies defense. If the Hokies are able to stop the run and pressure the quarterback, they should be in good shape. ODU has Hayden Wolff at quarterback. He is not very mobile and has a tendency to throw into traffic. This sets up like a good opportunity for Derek Jones’ cheetahs to be on the prowl. They need to look to force Wolff into mistakes in the passing game. The Hokies need to also be on the lookout for TE Zach Kuntz. He’s an NFL prospect and one of the top ten tight ends going into next year’s draft. He’s a player that the Hokies need to keep an eye on.
ODU already has some familiarity with Virginia Tech quarterback Grant Wells. They played against him while he was with Marshall last season. Wells threw for 299 yards and 2 touchdowns in that game but also threw 2 interceptions. He will need to cut down on the turnovers to keep ODU from getting any short fields. The last time the Hokies lost an opener was against Boston College on the road in 2019. That day, the offense turned the ball over five times. They need to avoid the turnover bug on Friday.
Another area the Hokies will want to watch out for is on kick and punt returns. ODU was one of the best kick and punt return units in the country last season. Former Hokies recruiting target, Lamareon James, is ODU’s kick and punt returner. He is electric with the ball in his hands. The Hokies coverage teams will need to be ready, otherwise he can house one.
A lot of the national experts out there are underrating the Hokies. Yes, the Fuente-coached Hokies have looked awful in the past few seasons. That’s true. But this is a new regime and there is still talent on this roster. Does that mean the Hokies will blow the doors off ODU? No. But there is enough to win on the road against a middle-of-the-road Sun Belt team. It won’t look pretty, but they’ll get it done.
Brent Pry has a lot of work to do. The Fuente era left a lot of areas that need improvement. The first area of focus needs to be to improve the roster. There are very few all-conference players on this team. If other ACC teams had the opportunity to switch players with the Hokies, I don’t know how many would. If Tech hopes to improve on last year’s 6-7 season, this coaching staff will need to work some magic with the roster.
Offense
The previous staff was a little too conservative on offense — especially in the 4th quarter. They relied too much on “expected outcomes”. Usually, those expected outcomes were plays that didn’t go for many yards. If the new staff can take the reigns off this offense, we should see more big plays than last season. At least get the ball into the hands of your playmakers.
I don’t know a whole lot about Grant Wells but what I see from him, he looks like he should be a solid QB for the Hokies. A good arm and accurate with some mobility. He’s not a game-changing talent but there’s enough there to win you football games. I see him as another Ryan Willis / Michael Brewer-type QB. You know what you’re getting from them and it’s enough to win you football games.
In the past few years, the Hokies have also had to rely on the backup quarterback. The Hokies have a solid backup in Jason Brown. Last year, he registered wins against Florida and Auburn. Although, like Wells, he is not a game-changing talent, he is able to win you football games in a pinch. Winning games in the SEC is nice to have on your resume.
The Hokies should feel good about what they have at running back. Malachi Thomas was impressive as a true freshman. In a scheme that is set up to let running backs shine, Malachi Thomas should be able to put up even better numbers. Behind him, they should get solid play from Jalen Holston. Holston will need to prove he can be more consistent than he was last season. With Joe Rudolph coordinating the run game, this is an offense that will be friendly to running backs.
The receiving room definitely has some question marks. The only known quantity that is expected to get serious playing time is Kaleb Smith. And most of his work has come as a backup the last couple of years. If this is going to be successful group, the newcomers will need to step up and fill the void. If the Hokies can’t get production out of those newcomers, this offense might be stuck in mud all season.
The offensive line doesn’t have a lot of depth but they will have elite coaching. Joe Rudolph is one of the best offensive line coaches in college football. He is the right guy to take a young line and mold them into functional group this year. This is a position group that needs to avoid the injury bug. An injury or two on the line would dampen the ability for this offense to move the ball.
The biggest change will be the new scheme and new coaches. These coaches will let the players go out there and make plays. The previous staff put the reins on the office too much. The staff needs to let their playmakers make plays.
Defense
There are some good pieces on the defensive side of the ball. Including a couple of players that have not reached their potential the last few years. This new, defensive-minded staff should be able to get more from this defensive talent. If we know one thing, it’s that Brent Pry knows how to coach defense.
The defensive line doesn’t have a ton of depth but they have enough that they should be okay. They should be able to go two deep at both at end and at tackle. Should injuries pile up, things might get a little dicey. For now, this is a solid group that could get All-ACC play from their two starting defensive tackles. The defensive ends will need to get more pressure than they did last year to improve this defense. Quarterbacks last year had too much time to throw.
Linebacker is the position group that concerns me the most on defense. Too many guys that haven’t been consistent in the past. Will the new staff be able to maximize their strengths? These linebackers will need to learn and adapt to the new scheme that they were not recruited for. The Hokies will need to get more sideline-to-sideline play from this group. There has been too much inconsistent play from this position group in the past couple of years. And there are questions about speed and coverage ability in this group.
I like the defensive backs group quite a bit. This is an underrated group. Dorian Strong has the potential to reclaim his play from 2020 when he was a freshman All-American. You also have Armani Chatman and Brion Murray who have been solid. Not to mention DJ Harvey who has the potential to have a breakout season. The big unknown is what to expect from the boundary safety position. If someone steps in that role, this should be a pretty good group.
If there is an area that should improve the most with the new coaches, it should be the defense. After finishing ranked 78th in total defense last year, expect a big improvement. The Hokies should be able to rely on the defense once again.
Final Thoughts
This team might not look great right out the gate. Those first few games might include a couple of squeakers. The offense will look rough at times. The hope is that the defense is able to carry this team at the beginning of year. If the defense is also struggling, it might be a long year. You can expect an improved defense and an offense that will get better week-to-week. That four game stretch in the middle of the schedule is going to be tough. This roster isn’t ready yet to compete in tough games like those. Especially the ones on the road. All the other games on the schedule are winnable but the defense needs to keep Tech in the game. This should look like classic VT — tough defense and a ground-and-pound offense. A good foundation to build on.
Tough games (<40% chance to win)
at North Carolina, at Pittsburgh, Miami and at NC State. Getting even a single win from this group of games is a bonus for this season. It would be great if the Hokies could pull an upset in that game at home against Miami.
Toss-up games (50-50 games)
Boston College, West Virginia, at Georgia Tech, at Liberty, Virginia. You can judge this season based on these five games. They will represent the difference between 9-3 and 3-9. If the Hokies can get three wins out of this group, they should be in good shape toward bowl eligibility. Based on how the home-road games break down, the Hokies have a good chance to post a good record in these games.
Should win games (>60% to win)
at Old Dominion, at Duke. The Hokies need to stop losing these type of games. Under the previous staff, the losses against ODU and Liberty were coach killers. The Hokies have to be able to win games against G5 opponents. That should be a given at a school with a strong football history like Virginia Tech. Duke is one of the weakest ACC teams this season and the game is at Duke which has always been friendly to the Hokies.
Must win games (>90% to win)
Wofford. The Hokies need to treat this game as a tune up, and not squeak by like they have been the past couple of years.
Key games for the Hokies: at Old Dominion, West Virginia, Virginia
Upset Alert: at Old Dominion
Game by Game Predictions
at Old Dominion (Fri.)
Boston College
Wofford
West Virginia (Thurs.)
at North Carolina
at Pitt
Miami
at NC State (Thurs.)
Georgia Tech
at Duke
at Liberty
Virginia
Final Regular Season Record: 8-4 (4-4 in the ACC) Expected finish: 3rd in the ACC Coastal
Hokies are back in the bowl season for the first time in two years. Between transfers, opt-outs and Covid protocols the Hokies are down to a skeleton crew. Let’s hope they have enough players to play on Wednesday. The depth at WR and CB is starting to look a bit dicey.
SP+ Rankings
Virginia Tech
Overall: 62nd Offense: 74th Defense: 47th Special Team: 28th
Maryland
Overall: 68th Offense: 34th Defense: 86th Special Team: 122nd
Maryland looks a lot like Virginia. A big-time passing attack led by Taulia Tagovailoa (Tua’s brother). This is not a great game for the Hokies to be without Jermaine Waller. Virginia Tech’s best chance in this game is to stop the run and try to force Tagovailoa into a couple of turnovers.
The Hokies should be able to run the ball against Maryland. They would be wise to run the ball over and over again with Blumrick, Blackshear and Malachi Thomas. Virginia Tech needs to run the ball and control the clock. They do not want to get into a shootout with Maryland. It’s the same gameplan that has worked for the Hokies late in the season. If Tech starts throwing the ball all over the field, then it’s time to worry.
All things being equal Tech has the better team. But after opt outs, transfers and Covid absences, it seems like Maryland will have the better squad. It’s hard to imagine VT winning with their backup QB, backup WRs and backup CBs. This game will look like the 2018 Cincinnati bowl game and 2019 Kentucky bowl game. A frustrating way to end another frustrating season.
I had a better read on this team in the preseason than in my week-to-week picks. My week-to-week picks got too influenced by what a roller coaster this team was. In the preseason, I saw this as a 7-5 team. I ended up picking a 6-6 result in my week-to-week picks but I got SIX of the games wrong. I did okay in my preseason picks. I only missed on the big win against UNC and the two losses at home against Pitt and Syracuse. Maybe next year I’ll stick with my gut on my preseason picks.
treadmillhorse 